Monday
Sep072009
Iran: Green Wave Resurgent?
Monday, September 7, 2009 at 7:59
Iran’s Victims: The 72 People Killed in Post-Election Conflict
Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak
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And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad's quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements.
All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to "The Green Path of Hope" has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday's updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime's efforts to direct --- through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University --- "proper" studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard's efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing "regime change".
As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however.
This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of "Silence = Consent", activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.
With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, "We are here, and we are gathering strength."
And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate.
All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because --- as we noted a few days ago --- the long-term Achilles' heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran's economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself.
But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the "Green Path of Hope", while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule....
Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September?
Iran Analysis: How Important is the Mousavi Statement?
Text: Mousavi Statement to “Green Path of Hope” (5 September)
The Latest from Iran (6 September): The Reformists Speak
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad's quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements.All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement to "The Green Path of Hope" has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday's updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime's efforts to direct --- through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University --- "proper" studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard's efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing "regime change".
As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however.
This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of "Silence = Consent", activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.
With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, "We are here, and we are gathering strength."
And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate.
All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because --- as we noted a few days ago --- the long-term Achilles' heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran's economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself.
But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the "Green Path of Hope", while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule....
Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September?
Reader Comments (6)
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Enduring America and S. Taned シルビア. Enduring America said: #IranElection Analysis: After Weekend of Statements, Is Resurgent Green Wave On Its Way to 18 Sept? http://bit.ly/x45NN #iran #politics [...]
Green wave resurgent? Not even close.
What is happening is that the the Reformist Bloc has really refined the art of whining to a new level. Every day now we hear the same tired refrain “but…but… the military cannot be involved in politics”, the Ayatollah Khomeini said so. Of course this ignores the barely hidden glee expressed by the Reformists during the post election disturbances whenever a silly new rumor arose about military officers (including Pasdaran officers) about to join the protesters. I guess the Reformers weren’t opposed to THAT KIND of military involvement in political matters. (Hypocrisy anyone?)
The real problem for Karroubi and company is that they’ve met their match in Mohammad Ali Jafari whose farsighted vision reoriented Pasdaran strategy internally more than 2 years ago.
“On October 20, 2007, in his first official speech as the IRGC commander-in-chief, Jafari talked about the new strategy and stated, “Based on the guidelines issued by the Leader of the Islamic Republic, the strategy of the IRGC has been modified. Its main task now is to confront internal threats.” http://ncr-iran.org/content/view/5483/153/
As the head of the Pasdaran Strategic Research Center Jafari was responsible for developing the strategic and tactical responses which proved so effective after June 12. Perhaps his most brilliant move was reorganizing the Basij (at one point he took direct command and named the current head as his deputy); the amazing flexibility shown by the Basij in taking back the streets is testament to Jafari’s wisdom.
If the Reformists are really building towards a confrontation on the 18th they will run into a fresh, well rested Basij, the oil on their dual sport motorcycles having recently been changed, ready to defend the revolution and the S.L.
Ahmadinejad may be somewhat distracted by the duties of governing but not so for the more formidable Mr. Jafari. Forget the duplicitous Larijani brothers, the patriotic candidate for President in 2013 will/should be Mohammad Ali Jafari.
The green movement is no longer a reform movement. By now it is clear to most Iranians that a THEOCRATIC regime is not the answer. Something that is well understood and already experienced by the more advanced cultures. Now, it is Iran's turn to finally throw away this medieval system and replace it by a DEMOCRACY, at the basis of which is human rights and freedom. Elections without freedom and democracy is like a chair with one leg: USELESS!
The Islamic law, government and economy have been tested and FAILED over the last 30 years. There is nothing new that Rafsanjani (the murdering thief), Khatami (known as deceiving Mullah), Karoubi (The hypocrite) and Mousavi (the backwards techno-theocrat) can offer. They have all been in office for more years than AN and caused as much, if not more damage to Iran.
How pleased Samuel is with Jafari's IRGC and the Basij and the virtuous job they did "taking back the streets," nothwithstanding the beating, torture, rape and murder of dozens of Iran's best and brightest. You must be so proud. Barbarism is the new black, eh?
A true Iranian patriot would have honored those brave young Iranians, would have fostered their talents for the benefit of all, intead of extinguishing them. Any civilized country would be proud to call the martyrs its sons and daughters. But instead Samuel doesn't even acknowledge them, the victims of is heroes, a he is blinded by his infatuation with Strongman military dictatorship, a tragicomic relic of the last century, at a time when the young world moves unstoppably towards democracy and international understanding.
A true Iranian patriot mourns all those beaten and killed for expressing their Allah-granted rights but Samuel's self-serving ears clearly can't tell the difference between the tortured screams of Evin and the sound of whining.
[...] Iran: Green Wave Resurgent? Posted by: Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran Enduring America And so the next wave? After the recent pre-eminence of President Ahmadinejad’s quest for authority, backed by threats to quell the opposition challenge, yesterday brought an intriguing combination of Green statements. All three of the most prominent figures were in play yesterday. Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement to “The Green Path of Hope” has sparked an excellent debate, including on yesterday’s updates and on our special analysis, of the significance for the opposition. Mehdi Karroubi pressed his claims of detainee abuse, manoeuvring with the three-person judiciary panel investigating the cases. And Mohammad Khatami struck back vigorously at the regime’s efforts to direct — through injunctions to administration and faculty, through curriculum revisions, and through threats to instutions like Islamic Azad University — “proper” studies. There were also fightback statements from reformist MPs and clerics against the Revolutionary Guard’s efforts to intimidate the opposition with the claims that the Green movement was pursuing “regime change”. As has been the case throughout this crisis, anyone who ventures to predict the fate of this latest wave is either a fool or a visionary far beyond my capabilities. Some markers can be set down, however. This time, the opposition activity may be moving toward a defining junction in the challenge to Government legitimacy. Publicity through the Internet, flyers, and word-of-mouth is already pointing towards the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September, which is also Qods (Jerusalem Day). Under the working slogan of “Silence = Consent”, activists are looking to mobilise the biggest march since 18 Tir (9 July) and the biggest event since the 40th Day memorial of 30 July, possibly in conjunction with prayers led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. With a wave of protest which seeks to build over 11 days, the watching brief should be not to expect a major challenge until the 18th but to look, each day, for some step-by-step statements and actions that indicates, “We are here, and we are gathering strength.” And that effort may be aided by an emerging factor on the other side. While noting all the indications of an Ahmadinejad campaign to establish his leadership, supported by the security forces, the President also now has to govern. Little things like the economy, delivery of services, and re-nominating ministers for the posts of Health, Education, and Energy come into play after three months of near-stalemate. All those little things take time away from the direct contest with the opposition because — as we noted a few days ago — the long-term Achilles’ heel for the legitimacy of this Government is Iran’s economic and social infrastructure. And this far-from-minor diversion opens up some space for the opposition to gather itself. But, to put in a third (of many) consideration. In all the paragraphs above, indeed in weeks going back to mid-August, the large presence of Hashemi Rafsanjani has disappeared. While Mousavi calls for the “Green Path of Hope”, while other protestors try to build up a momentum that (paradoxically) will not collapse with a single setback, while Ahmadinejad tries to rule…. Where will Rafsanjani be on 18 September? [...]
[...] tell them "No More!" Read the 2nd user comment ("Samuel") to this EA piece: Iran: Green Wave Resurgent? | Enduring America This Westerner has perfectly described what our movement has become: from 3 million people on the [...]