Friday
Sep112009
Iran: Questions on Prayer Day
Friday, September 11, 2009 at 5:40
The Latest from Iran (11 September): Prayers and Politics
Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
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After a relatively quiet Thursday, the curtain is raised today on what may or may not be (those who have been brave enough to predict have differed) a defining moment in the post-election crisis. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will lead Friday prayers in Tehran.
Many of the political and religious angles have been covered in our analyses this week. The starting point is that the address should of course be considered for the approach it takes towards the opposition. Will Khamenei restate the public line, taken since his address of 19 June, that there is no need for protest over a legitimate election and that this protest should not be tolerated? Will he add the significant amendment, which he tried out before President Ahmadinejad's recent crackdown, that this protest is not tied to a foreign-led "velvet revolution"? Will he make a move for limited compromise, which some of us at EA had expected up to Tuesday, by acknowledging some of the abuses of detainees and/or holding out the prospect of a release of some prisoners?
Yet just as important is that this speech also addresses the "establishment". Amidst uncertainty over the Supreme Leader's relationship with the President, and in particular whether he has been in line with the aggressive steps taken against the Green movement over the last 72 hours, what clues will there be in this address? Will the Supreme Leader offer a clear if relatively gentle admonition and "guidance", as he had done on Monday with his call for the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism"? Or will there be his call for "unity" be more about an acceptance of Ahmadinejad's tough, no-holds-barred showdown with opponents than about a reconcilation amongst all the differing views within the regime?
Iran Analysis: Retrenching Before Friday’s Prayers
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
After a relatively quiet Thursday, the curtain is raised today on what may or may not be (those who have been brave enough to predict have differed) a defining moment in the post-election crisis. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will lead Friday prayers in Tehran.Many of the political and religious angles have been covered in our analyses this week. The starting point is that the address should of course be considered for the approach it takes towards the opposition. Will Khamenei restate the public line, taken since his address of 19 June, that there is no need for protest over a legitimate election and that this protest should not be tolerated? Will he add the significant amendment, which he tried out before President Ahmadinejad's recent crackdown, that this protest is not tied to a foreign-led "velvet revolution"? Will he make a move for limited compromise, which some of us at EA had expected up to Tuesday, by acknowledging some of the abuses of detainees and/or holding out the prospect of a release of some prisoners?
Yet just as important is that this speech also addresses the "establishment". Amidst uncertainty over the Supreme Leader's relationship with the President, and in particular whether he has been in line with the aggressive steps taken against the Green movement over the last 72 hours, what clues will there be in this address? Will the Supreme Leader offer a clear if relatively gentle admonition and "guidance", as he had done on Monday with his call for the Cabinet to listen to "benevolent criticism"? Or will there be his call for "unity" be more about an acceptance of Ahmadinejad's tough, no-holds-barred showdown with opponents than about a reconcilation amongst all the differing views within the regime?
Reader Comments (1)
I'm live-blogging the sermon:
http://www.sidewalklyrics.com/?p=1496