The Latest from Iran (6 December): Tension Rises
Sunday, December 6, 2009 at 18:07 
2000 GMT: Widespread reports of loud "Allahu Akhbar" rooftop chants tonight. We've posted two videos.1800 GMT: A day dominated by statements. We've posted an abridged English version of the Mousavi statement on 16 Azar and the student movement.
Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”
NEW Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi Statement on 16 Azar and the Student Movement (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Fun with the Regime
1505 GMT: We've just learned that Kalemeh has posted the 16th statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi, issued for 16 Azar. We'll look for an English summary.
1500 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has also made a statement for the commemoration of Eid al-Ghadir, the confirmation of Imam Ali’s succession to the Prophet Mohammad. Visiting political figures and family members of detainees, declared, "Today more than anytime we need to return to [Imam Ali's] model and policy because that path wants Justice, Freedom and Equality for all....A society or a government will survive with blasphemy but will not survive with oppression.”
1410 GMT: Raf's Back? Chatter continues about Hashemi Rafsanjani's Sunday speech. Khabar Online focuses on the former President's defense of his son, Mehdi Hashemi: Rafsanjani said that Hashemi had gone to Britain to pursue a Ph.D., not to evade criminal charges which are unfounded.
We've got an English translation of parts of the speech. Another version has been posted by activist MikVerbrugge.
1300 GMT: Supreme Leader Gives British a Boost. Further to Ayatollah Khamenei's speech (see 1130 GMT), this comes in from the Supreme Leader's office via Twitter, "Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that USA is at the top of Iranian nation's enemies pyramid and Britain is their most vicious one."
So for all my British friends who fret about loss of power, declining Empire, and being just another sort-of-European country, cheer up....you're still vicious!
1130 GMT: It's All Because of the Foreigners. The Supreme Leader has told an audience of "thousands" that the Islamic Republic has rebuffed the efforts of foreign nations (US, Britain, Israel, etc.) to create differences over policy with their threat of sanctions. No reference, as far as I can see, to the internal challenge to the "unity" of the Iranian nation.
1125 GMT: Green Brief 75, covering the last 24 hours in Iran, is now out.
1120 GMT: Rafs' Move for 16 Azar. This may shake up a quiet morning: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has emerged to position himself between regime and protesters.
Rafsanjani told students in Mashhad, "The situation in the country is such that constructive criticism is not accepted," and pressed his call for unity and adherence to the law to "create a climate of freedom which will convince the majority of people and erase ambiguities".
The former President's message for tomorrow? "Those who demonstrate or protest must express themselves through legal means. Leaders must also respect the law. There have always been extremist factions and excessive attitudes on both sides... but several problems will be solved if we adopt the path of moderation."
0735 GMT: The Washington Post also has an article today on divisions within the regime, and it benefits --- in comparison to the piece in The Washington Times --- because Thomas Erdbrink is in Tehran. Drawing on public statements by analysts and former MPs, he focuses on the call of conservatives/principlists to end infighting, including the attacks on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
0715 GMT: This time tomorrow the marchers --- how many? --- will be gathering in Tehran and other cities for the demonstrations on National Students Day, 16 Azar. News has been restricted for almost 24 hours because of the Government clamp-down on the Internet but we are still getting information on the preparations, accompanied by nervousness and excitement.
And the Government clamp-down cannot hide the nerves and tensions within its own ranks. No clearer sign of this than the order from the Culture Ministry, "All permits issued for foreign media to cover news in Tehran have been revoked from December 7 to December 9."
Away from the marches, the rumbling over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic plans continues. The President has threatened to withdraw his subsidy reform proposals because they were modified by the Parliament, but MPs are resisting, saying it is too late to withdraw the plan.
Barbara Slavin has an interesting approach to the situation in The Washington Times. Relying on US-based experts, she declares "the embattled regime fears showing weakness in the face of persistent domestic political opposition and rising foreign pressure.... Ayatollah Khamenei may instead now be subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards and other paramilitary forces that keep his government afloat."
The most interesting passage in the piece is an attempt by a "senior Administration official" to claim some credit for the internal difficulties: "The Obama strategy has generated a real debate in Iran over nuclear issues," with "a crack in the core" of the regime.
The most interesting oversight in the article? With its obsession with the nuclear issue, it offers only sentence to the imminent sign of dissent, "New protests are expected Monday on Iranian campuses to mark 'National Student Day,' previously a regime-backed event." Somehow I don't think the demonstrations will be just on campuses on Monday.
16 Azar is 1 day away.
Reader Comments (23)
FYI
In solidarity with Iranians, there will be a gathering at Lafayette park in Washington D.C. (across from the White House) at 4:00 PM on Monday December 7, 2009 (16 Azar).
Divisions within the regime . . . 'A house divided against itself cannot stand'
That's why I'm 100% convinced that the Greens will win.
It is worth to note that Rafsanjani's travel to Mashhad was most likely a tactical move in order to not appear in todays Eid Ghadir with Khamenei.
Add to that the incredible saying of his today (much more here in farsi http://www.ayandenews.com/news/15991/ ), I think he's up to something.
I just saw the pictures of the "crowd of thousands" on IRINN. While I'm not an expert on how to create virtual crowds it did look like they had stuffed too many apparently virtual people between the pillars of the hall. It definitely didn't look realistic to me.
Can everyone else get NiteOwl to load – is it just me that’s having problems? I’ve been trying for the past two days to get it and am getting this message.
>>The server at http://www.dailyniteowl.com is taking too long to respond.<<
Thanks, Tricia
I really don't buy the Rafsanjani statement. He has proven himself to be unreliable and two-faced. A shame the Iranian people are stuck with politicians of Rafsanjani's caliber.
Tricia,
An alternate location for Green Brief 75 is http://greenbrief.newsvine.com/_news/2009/12/06/3595957-the-green-brief-75-dec-05-14-azar-
S.
Thanks so much Scott - that worked just fine :)
Typical of Rafsanjani to keep all his options open! The man is a snake and I can't believe that I see commentators - who are supposed to be reporting on behalf of the green movement - calling him a "great man"!!
Fascinating on the Rafsanjani speech. Excellent coup getting the English translations so rapidly.
I think few of us were expecting much from him at this point, let alone a statement so strong, to a student audience, right before a protest day. This speech does not appear to be in the usual Hashemi "appearing to be saying things, while really not saying much at all" style (otherwise known as "something for everyone".) This new message actually appears to be pretty clear - even more so than the Friday Prayers speech. He's also tacitly endorsing non-violent protests tomorrow, which should give a bit of inspiration to Greens, not to mention some political cover.
While I agree with Josh about Hashemi's Janus qualities, I think he can still be of some use to the Green movement. Even if he can't necessarily be counted on, he is a sometime-sympathizing person in a position of power and influence. At the very least, the type of regime Hashemi would like to see, even if mostly for his own interests, is one that would be a significantly better one than the current incarnation. One just has to lower expectations a bit from the lofty perch they were on in Khordad and Mordad.
If you are a follower of American politics, then the analogy is this: If the Greens are analogous to the Democrats who are trying to pass health care, then Rafsanjani is Olympia Snowe.
Well said kevin Scott; Raf with all his " power " , has to save the honor of the country, his people and his family !
Good job getting this up so quickly Scott!
I agree with Josh about Rafsanjani's character and Kevin's assessment of the speech. While Rafsanjani clearly prefers to keep the IRI in power I think this speech is his version of throwing his hands up in the air and telling Khamenei to wake up. I think the regime has done a great job of alienating him and threatening his son and family.
The interesting thing is that I don't think he would have said that "if the people don't want us (IRI) then we should go" if he didn't really feel like the jig is close to being up for the regime. Raf is not one to put himself out on the limb very often. When he does, it is a big deal. In this case what he said tells me the people of Iran are a lot closer to a day of freedom and the rights they deserve than we thought. I don't think Raf even realizes that things are now beyond the point of no return.
Mousavi's latest statement seems to suggest this as well. It was bold.
I agree with Josh and Tricia's statements that Rafsanjani is a snake and a two faced, but still, it's better for the green movement's interest if he thinks he is supported
my strategy is public support from one side against another until regime is completely split into two sides in total oppositions against one another. That'll make both sides weaker since they have to focus most of their attentions attacking one another leading to a better ground for the regime change opposition to grow
In fact , the majority of Iranians are now demanding regime change and secular democracy and pro-reform opposition is just a mask they use to protect themselves ...
Putting IRGC aside, Rafsanjani & Co is the most powerful in Iran, he has been positioning many of the top players inside the Government, Media, etc inside and outside Iran.
He is also a businessman dressed in cleric's uniform and in reality not even entitled to be called an Ayatollah
Grow up Kevin, I'm married to an Irooni who left Tehran a few years ago, the Greens of Iran are more like our "Tea Baggers" who have to face being ridiculed, insulted and demonized by an out of control liberal infrastructure while trying to use their right of free speech and assembly. The Greens want their basic rights like what we Americans have or should I say still have, and it's sad that most Americans do not appreciate them anymore. Until people like you realize what it really is like in Europe, then you will keep falling for their lies and European attempts to control the USA. As for me, I'm an orphan from another war that America was involved in (Don't worry, my parents died naturally) but it was an American who married my aunt and adopted me so I was lucky to grow up as an American and not in a communist concentration camp. I served my country (America) in peace and in war, twice. Now, I've lived in Europe long enough to see our third president in office, and I still don't trust the Europeans and their systems; I have too many examples to list here. Please read this article and you will get an idea of how the world thinks about us and how they think they can influence Americans http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,661678,00.html there is no end to the jealousy and no shame in their control of the media. Please don't take this the wrong way Kevin because all of your support for Green movement is needed, and I will try my best to keep this blog up to date with what ever information I get from my contacts, and let's hope for democracy sooner than later for these brave Iranians. May we learn from these people who have had to live with European influence for the last thirty years.
Khamenei: The latest scourge of Islamic rule, no further description needed. Rafsanjani: One of the richest people in the world; made after the Islamic revolution, a Mullah and an original revolutionary, 8 years president, responsible for the deaths of untold numbers of students and activists. Mousavi: Former president whose hands are also stained with the blood of student protesters. Do you guys think that the protesters care for these folks at all? The only thing they have to worry about is when the regime falls that dam socialists or mujaheddin don't position themselves in power. We have so many problems with these people at rallies, they always want to tell everybody what to think and what to do...eventually the crowd agrees that everybody has a right to their opinions and these morons end up looking stupid.
Uhh, ignoring Roche...
Anyhow, I think you're short-selling the strength of Raf's remarks. He REPORTEDLY said, "If they (the people) want us to govern, we will. If not, we will step aside."
Wow. I'd say he. implicitly, just put Khamenei on blast, so to speak.
http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/271976137/insider-opinion-rafsanjani-is-finally-clearly" rel="nofollow">More from Verbrugge.
Also, http://twitter.com/oxfordgirl/status/6405091462" rel="nofollow">interesting oxfordgirl tweet. Read her whole series on Raf today.
umm...I think you're grossly understating Rafsanjani's statement...seriously....this is HUGE!...it's a greenlight to the people, an open acknowledgement of popular disaffection with the regime and the people's right to change it! This is a game changer! I hope the people of Iran have heard his speech!
Do we have 100% confirmation that he said that?
Not ignoring Kevina, old Raf is protecting his interest and if you think this thief will act in the best interest of the Iranian people then you can count yourself in with the kind of folks that welcomed the first Mullah, Khameni into power. Trust me these people are not braving the streets to protest for another Mullah or socialist and even monarchist. The people already know how the regime governs, so his statement is only out there to give western governments a plug in to recognize him as an interim leader. Let's see Raf needs to hold on to his money, so he now he's had a change of heart and will back the people with an empty statement that he can't accomplish. Please stop taking credit away from the protesters, after all they are doing a great job with out these Islamic politicians.
For Cyaxares, so far nothing on this speech from the folks in Iran that I know of, but the regime has crippled the internet and Nokia/Siemens telecommunications systems. Pars TV is blocked again in Europe; I can't understand how they do it, since when have they owned Hotbird or Nilesat? But every time before a big event, the regime will block Pars TV. We have received a few videos of the people screaming allah...
Rafs is resurrected, VIVA la Hashemi. I agree with Cyaxares, seems like Rafs gave his blessing for the 16 azar demonstrations. His attempt to reconcile with SL failed. AN and IRGC are after him. I predict a Larijani Hashemi alliance, we`ll probably see IRGC commanders jumping ships as well.
I pray for a massive turnout tomorrow.
Rafs just positioning himself to be the fall back to a nicer islamic regime, he is being allowed to talk this way to preserve the regime, diffuse the hate for them by the population, and possibly a way to avoid Saddam's fate for all the people they have executed. There is no love for this mullah. Larijani is also a snake, the people are not going to forget how they were cheated out of democratic revolution thirty years ago.
There are posters going around with pictures from the revolution where the protesters were armed and behind barricades, with captions like "the only way to win". A massive turn out is planned and probably will happen, I hope they hit back just as hard as the security forces will hit them. No idea on what the tipping point will be before the police fall apart, and the regime really ruptures. I guess the Iranian military will have to step in on their own and side with the people as they should.
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