The Latest from Iran (25 December): A Pause before Ashura?

2130 GMT: Hot Gossip of Night. There is a statement lurking on Hashemi Rafsanjani's website in which the former President uses the story of Imam Hossein, the third Imam whose death is marked by the ceremony of Ashura on Sunday, to argued that it is important to keep public consciousness alive.

Rafsanjani puts forth Hossein's opposition to the caliph as the most significant political movement in the last 1400 years, with its promotion of virtues and condemnation of injustice and evil. And, in an all-too-obvious parallel with the 21st century, he asserts that Hoseein was accused of having revolted for power and collaborated with foreigners to which the Imam answered: "I'm not revolting to Govern; my revolt is to protect and correct the course of the disciples of my ancestor [the Prophet Mohammad]."

I say that the statement is "lurking" because it has not been picked up by other Iranian media and Rafsanjani has not moved to exploit it in another public forum....yet.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Montazeri’s Farewell Speech (November 2009)
REVIVED Iran Top-Secret: The President’s Gmail Account
Latest Iran Video: Tehran Protests (23-24 December)
Iran: The Momentum of Protest (It’s No Longer Just….)

1900 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Programme. On a relatively slow news day, an EA reader has pointed out the recent Doha Debate on the subject. Participants include Mahjoob Zweiri of the Centerfor Strategic Studies in Jordan, Seyed Mohammad Marandi of Tehran University, Baria Alamuddin of Al-Hayat, and Alireza Nourizadeh of the Center for Arab and Iranian Studies in London.

1850 GMT: Kalemeh is reporting that there will be no Ashura services in the Imam Khomeini mausoleum this year.

1800 GMT: Tonight's Hot Rumour. The chatter, supported by an article in Parleman News, is that former Presidnet Mohammad Khatami will speak tomorrow after the local Tasua service (6 p.m. local time) in Hosseiniyeh No. 1 in Jamaran in north Tehran.

1755 GMT: Repeating the Ashura Demonstration Routes. The plans for marches in 22 Iranian cities on Sunday (see 1415 GMT) have now also been posted by Unity4Iran.

1530 GMT: Regime Message --- Desecration, Mousavi, and Sane'i. Fars News is headlining a supposedly very large demonstration in Qom condemning the "desecrations" of the rallies after the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. The pro-regime protesters called for the arrest of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and, perhaps most strikingly, chanted, "Death to Sane'i", the reformist cleric who has been in the forefront of commemorations for Montazeri and challenges to the Government.

1520 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami in Tehran today saying, Don't Demonstrate. Really --- Don't. "Our mourning ceremonies for Imam Hussein should not make the enemies of Islam pleased since Imam Hussein is ... the symbol of unity, so the ceremonies should not be used as platform for disunity," said Khatami. He added that if people do demonstrate, it is because they are supported by the US, Israel, and other bad countries.

1420 GMT: Memorial Defiance. Despite the Government prohibition on ceremonies, Ayatollah Taheri has announced that "7th day" memorials of the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri will be held on Saturday night and Sunday (coinciding with Ashura) in Isfahan.

1415 GMT: Routes for demonstrations on Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December) in 22 Iranian cities have been posted.

1152 GMT: A Not-So-Happy New Year for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad? An EA correspondent passes on information from the Economist Intelligence Unit, one of the foremost locations of analysis in Britain, with its latest views on Iran. The entire report is worth a read, but the opening summary is enough to raise eyebrows:

Public criticism of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, because of his direct intervention in the political domain has exposed a large breach in Iran's s intricate power structure, which may weaken his authority in 2010-11.

The position of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will be increasingly challenged by sections of the clerical establishment, as well as by his reformist and pragmatic-conservative opponents, following his divisive re-election.

1140 GMT: An Opening in Nuke Talks? Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has told Iranian state television that Iran "does not have a problem with Turkish soil" for an exchange of enriched uranium. If true, that would be a shift from Tehran's insistence since November that a swap had to occur inside Iran.

1025 GMT: Marches continue in Tehran. Reports that Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri was present at the mourning service in Khomeni Shahr --- video has now been posted.

0915 GMT: Reports of Moharram gatherings in Tehran, watched over by security forces.

0910 GMT: The "Proper" Demonstrations. Nice example of ignoring events to tell the "right" story on Press TV's website: there is a lengthy piece on "Zanjan, venue of world's largest mourning parade". This is the gathering today on the 8th day of Moharram, which is expected to draw more than 200,000 Shi'a followers.

Funny, but there's no mention at all in the article of the other reason why Zanjan is making headlines this week (albeit not in Iranian state media): it was the site of the cancelled memorial for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri yesterday.

0730 GMT: During this week of memorials to Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, we've posted the video of what is claimed to be his last public speech.

And, for a bit of flashback fun on this day, we've revived Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's top-secret Gmail account.

0620 GMT: Today, 24 hours before the fast day of Tasua and 48 hours before the commemoration of Ashura, has started relatively quietly. There is talk of memorials for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, but so far no confirmation of demonstrations. Meanwhile, the unconfirmed news is that a grandson of Montazeri was arrested.

The Latest From Iran (21 December): The Montazeri Funeral

2140 GMT: Sharing a Laugh. At the end of an emotional day, it's good to relax with a bit of a laugh. So, over to you, pro-regime Kayhan newspaper: there were "a maximum of about 5000" in the crowd at the Montazeri ceremonies, as reformists "completely failed to create "a popular gathering".

Oh, you pranksters....

1925 GMT: Arrest of the Activists. Shiva Nazar Ahari and Kouhyar Goodarzi, arrested yesterday as they travelled to Qom, are still detained. Mahboubeh Abbas Gholizadeh was released earlier today.

A video of Gholizadeh's interview of Nazar Ahari, carried out just before her arrest, has been posted in two parts.

1910 GMT: We continue to add the best of today's videos as we come across them (Set 1 and Set 2). The latest discovery? A lengthy clip of Mehdi Karroubi at the ceremonies.

1850 GMT: Clashes and Occupation (2). Rah-e-Sabz publishes the story we have been hearing for a few hours: The car of Mir Hossein Mousavi was attacked, allegedly by plainclothes forces, as it returned to Tehran from Qom, breaking the rear windscreen. A passenger was injured; Mousavi was unhurt. One of the attackers also suffered minor injuries.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Mourning Montazeri (21 December — 2nd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mourning Montazeri (21 December — 1st Set)
NEW Iran & The Nuclear Talks: The View from Tehran
NEW Iran Video & Text: Montazeri’s Son Saeed On His Father’s Views, Last Words
Iran Document: Karroubi Responds to Threat of Arrest
Latest Iran Video: Montazeri’s Criticism of Supreme Leader Khamenei (1997; redistributed October 2009)
Latest Iran Video: Demonstrations in Memory of Montazeri (20 December)
Iran Special LiveBlog: Ayatollah Montazeri Has Died
The Latest from Iran (20 December): Montazeri Death; Regime Scrambles for Legitimacy

1830 GMT: Clashes and Occupation (1). Back from a short break to find that Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah, has said "several people" were injured in clashes with security forces. Some of those forces are still "occupying" the Imam Hassan Mosque where services took place this morning.

1630 GMT: And Now the Lighter Side of the News. Beyond the significant events surrounding the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, this revelation of the words of President Ahmadinejad's aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai in Copenhagen last week:

Iran is a creditor for the international community and the whole of the world is indebted to it. Because Iran is the most important of the founders of human society and urbanism. "We are a rich and resourceful country but our resources are not oil and gas, it is the Iranian culture. Today, because of a smart, witty and courageous son, Mr. Ahmadinejad, deceiving it [Iran] has become impossible.

Ahmadinejad is the manifestation of a well-informed, wise and passionate Iranian who has stood in front of international politics so that everyone understands that the path of Iran's development cannot be abandoned.

1600 GMT: We've started a second set of videos of today's events.

1555 GMT:Khordaad 88 has posted the video and English transcript of one of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's last interviews, which was with Radio Zamaaneh on the subject of his 1989 split with Ayatollah Khomeini.

1520 GMT: Mardomak is reporting that the Montazeri family has cancelled the funeral reception because of conditions similar to "martial law" around their home.

1515 GMT: Back after a break --- thanks to Tricia Sutherland for minding the EA shop.

1325 GMT: Activists report that demonstrations and vigils in Tehran tonight for 8-10 p.m. local time (1630-1830 GMT) at  Vanak Square, Vali-e Asr, 7 Tir, Mohseni, Azadi, and Enghelab.

1314 GMT: BBC Persian television is continuing to broadcast into Iran despite attempts by the regime to jam its signal.

1300 GMT: Among new videos from Qom and elsewhere in Tehran are chants  "We will fight, we will never die, we will not accept oppression", "Dictator, shame on you, leave your monarchy", and "Dictator, dictator, Montezari is alive".

1243 GMT: Online new service reports that Qom police protected mourners and demonstrators from basijis and plain-clothed security forces, who destroyed Montezari banners.

1125 GMT: A Pause. We're taking a break for a bit to catch our breath. Please keep sending in information of anything we have missed and check out our videos and analysis.

1110 GMT: Mediawatch. The top story on the BBC website's is "Clashes reported at funeral of Iranian dissident cleric". In contrast, CNN has not updated its article to mention today's funeral, let alone consider its significance.

1100 GMT: Among the chants on videos from Qom: "Those who cheated tore up the photos [of Ayatollah Khomeini]"; "Political prisoners must be freed".

1010 GMT: Andisheh-ye No (New Thought), one of five papers warned this weekend for not paying due attention to "large" pro-Government rallies on Friday has been banned from publishing.

1005 GMT: Iran Mediawatch. It looks like Mehr News has defied the Government command to ignore the crowds for Montazeri. It has photos of the gathering and of prominent figures paying condolences. It may be a sign of demand for confirmation of events or, alternatively, Internet restrictions in Iran that Mehr's website appears to be overloaded.

0940 GMT: Images of Mourning. Photos have been posted of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi paying their respects inside the Montazeri house. We have also posted the first videos of mass demonstrations in Qom and Najafabad.

0910 GMT: Press TV just posted a short report on the funeral of "leading clerical figure Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri". It mentions the Supreme Leader's condolences, omitting the criticisms of Montazeri.

There is no mention, however, of the crowds in Qom.

0905 GMT: The View from the Other Site --- Montazeri & "Terrorists". One of the few remarks from an Iran-based commentator in non-Iranian media is in Al Jazeera English's coverage. It comes from Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi:

[Montazeri said] the same thing for around 25 years....After his inner circle was discovered to be linked to Mujahidin terrorists based in Iraq, he was isolated by the reformists....He is not a major player and has always been very critical.

0855 GMT: Iranian Mediawatch. Press TV's website has nothing on the funeral (now see 910 GMT). The Iranian Labor News Agency's English site has a short item that "thousands of mourners converged" on Qom and that Mir Hossein Mousavi attended. ILNA also uses the title "Ayatollah" for Montazeri, who was "one of the leaders of the 1979 Iranian Revolution along with the founder of the Islamic Republic Imam Khomeini".

ILNA also emphasises, via the word of Montazeri's doctor, that the cleric died of natural causes.

0850 GMT: New Entries. We have posted the video and translation of an interview given by Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's son Saeed yesterday on his father's last words and views: "I think one of the main reasons [for his death] was his grief for the post-election events which troubled my father a lot."

And, on another front, we have posted a view from Tehran of the current Iranian position in the nuclear talks with the "West" and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

0840 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh, in a long report on the funeral, confirms that both Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were in the procession.

0810 GMT: Montazeri's son has asked the crowd to quiet their chants, but the protests continue.

0805 GMT: Mediawatch. The Montazeri ceremonies/protests are now the lead item on the BBC, with Jon Leyne providing an excellent summary both of today's gathering and of attempted Government restrictions. Leyne says that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were in the funeral procession, a claim that we have been unable to confirm.

0735 GMT: With security forces apparently trying to move people from the Shrine, crowds are moving about Qom, with many reportedly headed toward Montazeri's house.

0730 GMT: The doors of the Masoumeh Shrine have been closed because of the size of the crowd.

0720 GMT: Numerous reports of the crowd's mourning turning into a protest with chants against the Government and even the Supreme Leader.

0657 GMT: It appears the ceremony proceeded more quickly than we first reported (0615 GMT). Reports now that Montazeri has been buried in the Massoumeh Shrine.

0650 GMT: The article in Time from Robin Wright, one of the best US-based journalists on Iran, is to the point: "Iran's Opposition Loses a Mentor But Gains a Martyr".

0643 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted a tribute, "Good Bye Montazeri, You Will Be Missed": "The struggle for freedom, human rights and justice will continue. If we’ve learned anything in the past six months it is that the Iranian people’s desire for change will not die with the death of an individual – no matter how important that individual may be."

0640 GMT: Ayatollah Shobeiri-Zanjani is now leading prayers.

0630 GMT: A LiveBlog from Qom is claiming "hundreds of thousands" are now in the streets. Reported chant: "Montazeri is not dead; the Government is dead."

0615 GMT (0945 Tehran & Qom): The mourning ceremonies for Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri began about 30 minutes ago in Qom, with his body being taken from his house to the Imam Hassan mosque. In about 45 minutes, the procession will move from the mosque to the Masoumeh Shrine. There are reports, despite Government efforts to limit or prevent attendance, tens of thousands have lined the route.

As well as the reported orders from the regime to Iranian newspapers to prohibit his photograph on front pages, to ignore Montazeri's political significance and emphasise the 1989 incident that led to his dismissal as Ayatollah Khomeini's successor, the Government is jamming BBC Persian.

Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech in Mashhad (6 December)

On 9 December, we wrote a lengthy analysis, "Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The 'Third Way' of Unity", which laid out discussions between senior religious figures and the former President to put forth a proposal for reform of the Islamic Republic, manoeuvring between the Ahmadinejad Government and the Green movement. Sceptics argued that neither the clerics nor Rafsanjani wielded that much political influence --- the words "spent forces" were used --- but we still wondered whether the initiative would unsettle the regime.

We've gotten our answer in the last 48 hours, as our updates are tracking: the threats against Rafsanjani have reached a point just short of arresting his family members. At the same time, Rafsanjani's 6 December speech in Mashhad, criticising the post-election behaviour of the Government and calling for unity and moderation, has popped up again on the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Kalemeh.

We offered a summary of the speech on the day it was given, courtesy of a reader who took it from the Rah-e-Sabz website. Here are some more extracts in English, courtesy of MikVerbrugge:

Iran: Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The 'Third Way' of Unity"
Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
The Latest on Iran (16 December): What’s Next?

"I don’t see a difference between extremists of both sides (of the conflict) but a majority of our society,especially educated traditionalists prefer moderation."

"It breaks your heart to see students not voicing their opinions out of fear."

"Conditions don’t allow to address issues openly in speeches."

"When I said 'The regime derives its legitimacy from people’s vote,” they said, “What is this (nonsense) you say, God appoints a man to govern, people’s vote is just a decoration and they have to accept (the Government).”

- Our system is based on faith & Government derives its legitimacy from acceptance of people. If you don’t believe in that, then you don’t believe in the prophet himself.

- Prophet Mohammad told Imam Ali (the first Imam of Shi'a Islam): From God you have permission to rule but that’s only valid if the people accept you. If they accept you, rule; if not, don’t. When Ali saw that some people didn’t accept his guardianship, he abstained. Five years later, people came to him, and asked why he abstained and allowed others to rule. “For 5 years there had only been wars and killings, and we are tired.” There was criticism raining down from doors and walls.

It’s the same discussion we had with our Revolution: governance and revolution begin with people. Until Khordaad 15 (5 June 1963), people were asking for their rights in demonstrations, then the killings started and the Shah’s regime became violent. It was then clear that the regime didn’t accept the will of people.

The Latest from Iran (15 December): The Path to Moharram

1955 GMT: Dealing with Insults. Tabnak reports that a special order has been has issued from high-level officials declared that anyone who insults the heads of the three branches of Government (Presidency, judiciary, legislature) and the head of Assembly of Experts "will be dealt with severely".

(Crazy question: since Hashemi Rafsanjani is the head of the Assembly of Experts, will Ahmadinejad allies like Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, who have implied Rafsanjani and his family have acted illegally, "be dealt with severely"?)

1909 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh has published his latest message to students.

1904 GMT: Montazeri on Responsible Protest. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has declared that the regime "raises the 'overthrowing' charges so that they can repress people; possibly they send some individuals among the people to chant slogans in favour of overthrowing the system".

Montazeri continued, “If the authorities give permission for free and peaceful gatherings, they will witness that the majority of people do not want anything but to reinstate their denied rights and be compensated for them. They want the freedoms that have been clearly mentioned in the Constitution and, in general, the reform of the system.”

NEW Iran: A Beginner’s Guide to Moharram
NEW Latest Iran Video: The University Protests (15 December)
NEW Iran: US State Department Pushes for “Proper” Sanctions in 2010
NEW “Where is My Vote?” (Part 2): TIME Snubs Green Movement as “Person of the Year”
Latest Iran Video: And Your University Protests Today…. (14 December)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Challenging the Regime’s Forces on 16 Azar (7 December)
NEW Iran: Scott Lucas in La Stampa on “Khamenei’s Final Warning”
NEW Iran: “Arrests” and the Regime’s Sword of Damocles
The Latest from Iran (14 December): Taking Stock

1850 GMT: Tavakoli Moved to Solitary Under Eyes of Revolutionary Guard. A reliable Iranian activist reports that Majid Tavakoli, the student leader detained during the 16 Azar protests, has been brought to Revolutionary Court and then put in solitary confinement in Evin Prison's Ward 240, overseen by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps.

1830 GMT: Ahh, Someone Noticed. Several hours after we mentioned the case of jailed Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, largely absent in the US media, the high-profile blog The Daily Dish summarises the claim of his lawyer that he was sentenced to 15 years on the basis of little, if any, evidence.

1715 GMT: Video has come in of a protest today at Razi University in Kermanshah.

1555 GMT: The Khaje Nasir University Demo. Reformist sites explain that today's protest (see video) was over the arrest of Kamran Aasa, whose brother of Kiyanoush Aasa was killed in the post-election conflict.

1545 GMT: Warnings and Protest Claims. On a pretty slow day, Morteza Tamedon, the Governor of Tehran Province, has grabbed a couple of headlines by declaring that security forces will be mobilised to deal with any demonstrations on the days of Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December). Tamedon also waved aside the request of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi for a permit for a march honouring the image of Imam Khomeini, since they could protest the recent "burning of Khomeini" in a statement.

The Islamic Republic News Agency has put out its interpretation of today's demonstrations at Tehran Azad University, with 700 students rallying for the Government and 100 opposition students gathering nearby. Hmm.... Might want to check that against the video.

1420 GMT: Radio Farda has a report on one of the student demonstrations/discussion at a packed seminar in Tehran.

1310 GMT: Guides and Videos. Mr Azadi has written an introduction to Moharram, the holy month that begins on Friday, and we have the first video from today's university protests.

1125 GMT: Conservative Bust-Up? Iranian state media is now reporting a story we heard yessterday from sources: Tehran's Chief Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has filed a lawsuit against the websites of Jahan News and Alef News for "insulting" President Ahmadinejad.

Alef belongs to the prominent member of Parliament and relative of the Larijani brothers, Ahmad Tavakoli, who has been critical of Ahmadinejad on numerous occasions since June. Jahan is connected with MP Ali Reza Zakani and is often labelled as linked to "Iranian intelligence circles".

1000 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the manoevures within the US Government on sanctions against Iran. The State Department is trying to get control of the process, being pushed by Congress, to ensure international support.

0935 GMT: The "Other" American Prisoner. A paradox: while "Western" media overheated yesterday over the passing comment from Iran's Foreign Minister that the three US hikers might be tried, none of them seems to notice the latest developments in the case of Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, sentenced this autumn to 15 years in prison. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has issued a statement that "the case against the Iranian-American social scientist Kian Tajbakhsh contains no evidence to support the allegations against him, according to...interviews with Masoud Shafie, Tajbakhsh’s lawyer".

0855 GMT: A "Sensible" Engagement? An interesting passage from today's editorial in The Guardian of London:

"It has become a cliche to say there are no good options about Iran. This does not mean that Washington is doomed to choose the worst option – barring military assault – each time negotiations fail. Giving diplomacy no more than three months to work, as opposed to sanctions on Iran which lasted for more than 20 years, may have been a mistake. So too was limiting the talks to the enrichment process alone. There are many other fronts on which Iran should be engaged."

0600 GMT: The Counter-Attack of Engagement. For days, the Iran news from the US Congress has been of a push towards stricter sanctions, with a bill proposing measures against the gas and oil industries as well as other financial penalties. A group of Congressmen offered an alternative yesterday with the introduction of two proposals.

The Stand with the Iranian People Act would pursue "targeted" measures against companies providing the Iranian regime with software and technology for Internet censorship and surveillance, cutting off their US Government contracts, and impose travel restrictions on "human rights abusers" within the Iranian Government. At the same time, the measure would "enable US non-governmental Organizations to work directly with the Iranian people".

The Iranian Digital Empowerment Act would remove restrictions on companies and private citizens in the US who wish to send software to the people of Iran, including communication and anti-censorship tools, by clarifying that sanctions do not apply.

0530 GMT: After a week of activity and rumour, there was a relative calm yesterday. The regime did launch a few attacks on its foes, with Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi's attack on Hashemi Rafsanjani and the Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speaking darkly of the "hypocrites" (who just happen to be the Khomeini family) running the Imam Khomeini Archives. President Ahmadinejad, after almost a week's silence on the internal crisis, offered a few words about the offensive act against the Imam, then apparently returned to his battle with Parliament to get passage of economic legislation. The sense was that the Government was either planning its next manoeuvre or scrambling about, trying to figure out where to go after the "burning of Khomeini" episode.

Meanwhile, University students made clear, in quadrangles and in classrooms, that they are not going to ease the protests before Moharram begins on Friday. Mir Hossein Mousavi set down the lines for the upcoming challenge --- demonstrate peacefully and lawfully while making clear that it is the regime that has committed injustices and denied rights --- as he and Mehdi Karroubi emerged after a meeting to announce they would request a permit for a march, protesting the insult to Imam Khomeini, from the Ministry of Interior. Former President Mohammad Khatami also chipped in with a general statement of support for protest.

Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda - Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?

UPDATE 1355 GMT: We've got the latest developments in our LiveBlog. Current assessment? Based on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning, we think the Green movement(s) are on a "final warning". That would mean no immediate arrests of opposition leaders, but if there is protest during Moharram....

LATEST POST (14 December) Iran: "Arrests" and the Regime's Sword of Damocles

UPDATE 0800 GMT: Just after posting this, I noticed the English summary of the blog of the academic and journalist Alireza Nourizadeh, who lives outside Iran but claims good sources inside the country. He says that there was a three-hour meeting on Saturday night between the top commanders of security forces and the military, the Minister of Intelligence, and the Supreme Leader and his son Mojtaba. (Note: no President Ahmadinejad)

Nourizadeh asserts, "During the meeting the majority of participants requested the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Seyed Mohamad Khatami and the placing of Hashemi Rafsanjani under surveillance. Khamenei, however, postponed his final decision to tomorrow.



Nevertheless, according to a very reliable source it is very probable that the coup leaders take series of important measures including arrest of a number of opposition figures tonight."

0730 GMT: We awake to sift through the chatter and rumours of more Government action against the reformists and Green Wave(s). Sparked by an entry in Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh and then accelerated by the repetition of the warning by other reformists websites such as Norooz and Mehdi Karroubi's website Tagheer, the concern grew that Mousavi might be arrested.

Here is where we are this morning:

1. THE FAILURE OF THE KHOMEINI "ON FIRE" CAMPAIGN: Of course, there are a number of reasons why the regime might take the dramatic and dangerous step of detaining the most prominent Green leaders.However, the immediate catalyst seems to come from a Government stumble: the clumsy propaganda campaign using the alleged burning of Ayatollah Khomeini's photograph by protesters.

It is secondary whether or not the video shown on 16 Azar by State media, claiming to be of a man urged on by a crowd to deface and then set on fire images of the current Supreme Leader and Khomeini, is genuine. What matter is whether people believe it is genuine. And it appears that, given the increasing shrillness of the Government campaign, that the regime has failed to make the allegation stick.

And there has been a negative effect undermining the authority of those in charge. The reformist response --- announcing that Khomeini was not burned but saying nothing about Ayatollah Khamenei --- speaks loudly in its omission: we are not protesting the Imam's idea of the Republic but the current state of that Republic and, in particular, the man occupying the post of Supreme Leader.

2. RAISING THE STAKES: So the regime was unable to turn 16 Azar, damaging in its display of persistent protest despite all the Government restrictions, into an example of the opposition's dastardly effort to destroy the Republic. What next?

Simply put, keep banging away. So on Saturday Ahmad Khatami, who has been the point man for hard-line declarations (remember the death penalty for protesters announcement in his Friday Prayer early in the crisis?), indicated that there must be punishment of those responsible for the desecration both of Khomeini's image and the regime's authority. That message in turn was trumpeted by outlets such as IRNA and Fars News.

3. FROM PROPAGANDA TO REALITY? Another warning has thus been put out by the regime.

There is a practical dimension to the threat. The Government's strategy in the run-up to the 16 Azar protests focused on the detention of student leaders, but this was not enough to stop the tide of demonstration. Even if the protests were smaller than on previous occasions, their concentration on campuses at the same time as they spread throughout the country galvanised attention --- note the swing in international media from declaring the Green Wave over to announcing its resurgence. (Is that duplicated amongst those "in the know" inside Iran?)

So if it's not enough to take out the student leaders, what can you do, especially with the important religious occasion of Mosharram around the corner? You go up the chain and challenge the Big Guys.

And don't underestimate the effect of groups of individuals simply deciding to force the issue. On the day after 16 Azar, Mousavi's offices were surrounded by about 40 plainclothes personnel, sparking a confrontation with the opposition leader. Both sides backed away --- Mousavi's security taking him back into his offices, the plainclothesmen dispersing --- but the showdown could have escalated.

The Government has threatened before to detain opposition leaders. And it has arrested high-profile Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi advisors. However, it has not necessarily been able to hold those advisors, such as Alireza Beheshti. (Whether it has been able to limit their role in the movement is an important and, for us, unanswered questioned).

For now, therefore, the rumours of the ultimate arrest of Mousavi appear to be a combination of regime frustration, a waving of the Sword of Damocles over the Green Movement, and the opposition's own nervousness.

None of which gives answers. That is, beyond this important lesson, six months and two days after the Presidential election....

This isn't over.