Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech in Mashhad (6 December)

On 9 December, we wrote a lengthy analysis, "Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The 'Third Way' of Unity", which laid out discussions between senior religious figures and the former President to put forth a proposal for reform of the Islamic Republic, manoeuvring between the Ahmadinejad Government and the Green movement. Sceptics argued that neither the clerics nor Rafsanjani wielded that much political influence --- the words "spent forces" were used --- but we still wondered whether the initiative would unsettle the regime.

We've gotten our answer in the last 48 hours, as our updates are tracking: the threats against Rafsanjani have reached a point just short of arresting his family members. At the same time, Rafsanjani's 6 December speech in Mashhad, criticising the post-election behaviour of the Government and calling for unity and moderation, has popped up again on the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Kalemeh.

We offered a summary of the speech on the day it was given, courtesy of a reader who took it from the Rah-e-Sabz website. Here are some more extracts in English, courtesy of MikVerbrugge:

Iran: Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The 'Third Way' of Unity"
Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
The Latest on Iran (16 December): What’s Next?

"I don’t see a difference between extremists of both sides (of the conflict) but a majority of our society,especially educated traditionalists prefer moderation."

"It breaks your heart to see students not voicing their opinions out of fear."

"Conditions don’t allow to address issues openly in speeches."

"When I said 'The regime derives its legitimacy from people’s vote,” they said, “What is this (nonsense) you say, God appoints a man to govern, people’s vote is just a decoration and they have to accept (the Government).”

- Our system is based on faith & Government derives its legitimacy from acceptance of people. If you don’t believe in that, then you don’t believe in the prophet himself.

- Prophet Mohammad told Imam Ali (the first Imam of Shi'a Islam): From God you have permission to rule but that’s only valid if the people accept you. If they accept you, rule; if not, don’t. When Ali saw that some people didn’t accept his guardianship, he abstained. Five years later, people came to him, and asked why he abstained and allowed others to rule. “For 5 years there had only been wars and killings, and we are tired.” There was criticism raining down from doors and walls.

It’s the same discussion we had with our Revolution: governance and revolution begin with people. Until Khordaad 15 (5 June 1963), people were asking for their rights in demonstrations, then the killings started and the Shah’s regime became violent. It was then clear that the regime didn’t accept the will of people.

Iran: A Beginner's Guide to Moharram

EA correspodent Mr Azadi offers an introduction to EA readers (and to me, as I confused Moharram and Ashura in a post I wrote last week) of the religious month of Moharram, which is likely to be marked by opposition protests:

Moharram and the message of Karbala

One of the significant events for Shia Islam is the first month of the Islamic calendar, Moharram, with its meanings and rituals. It was on the 10th day of Moharram, known as Ashura, that Hussain, the third Imam of Shiites, was killed at Karbala, now located in Iraq.

The Latest from Iran (15 December): The Path to Moharram

Historical Background

The killing of Hussain at Karbala, which took place in Moharram in the year 61 in the Islamic calendar (680 AD), is one of the seminal events in the development of Shi'a Islam.

Hussain had refused an alliance with Yazid, the caliph, and declared that Yazid’s administration and government were not legitimate because they were not following the Prophet Mohammad’s manner and path. As Hussain was the only living grandson of the Prophet, his refusal to pledge allegiance could jeopardize Yazid’s position. The caliph put an ultimatum to Hussain: acceptance of his supremacy or death.

Hussain had announced that he had no intention of starting a war, but Yazid left him with no choice, Hussain, his family, and his companions met more than 5000 troops of Yazid’s army in Karbala. Hussain’s 72 companions and his family were all slain.

Hussainian Ideology

Hussain's attitude and his martyrdom have provided an ideological framework for liberating movements which identify with the event of Karbala as a stand against injustice. This ideological framework includes refusal to accept an illegitimate government, disclosing injustice, and protesting against it. It does not matter how few are in a protesting movement, for it must rise against tyranny and injustice, even if there is no immediate result.

Shiites believe that as long as there is injustice in the world, Hussain’s path is alive and must be followed: “Every day is Ashura, and every land is Karbala.” clearly declares this Hussainian ideology.

Reviving Hussain

During its history, Shiism has tried to revive the ideology and the message of Karbala in various ways, most importantly through the mourning ritual. Remembrance of Hussain, his words and message, his view and ideology, his death, and the events surrounding that death are the main parts of these rituals, which both speculative and emotional aspects.

During Moharram, people gathering in mosques or other places to listen to clergy and lecturers explain the message of Karbala and Hussain’s actions and death. In these holy ceremonies, Shiites also use symbols for the main aspects of Karbala. Flags are in three colors: red (for blood and dying for beliefs), green (for the Prophet’s family), and black (for sadness and mourning).

Moharram and Iran’s Islamic Revolution

Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979 was based on Hussainian ideology. Imam Khomeini declared that Moharram had kept the movement alive, identifying it with the rise against the tyranny and injustice of the Shah, the 20th-century Yazid. Clergy and speakers turned Muharram from a month of mourning into a political platform for reform of the Iranian system. Iranian worshipers, adorned in black and singing of sadness, demonstrated against the Shah throughout the month, especially on the 9th and 10th days, Tasua and Ashura.

The meanings of Muharram and Ashura were reinforced during the "imposed war" (1980-88) with Iraq. In Hussainian ideology, sacrificing a life for your beliefs was more valuable than living under tyranny. Iranians identified their martyrs with the martyrs of Karbala in their ceremonies and their literature.

Muharram and Green Movement

Basing on Hussain’s goal, “reforming the Islamic society and re-establishing it with justice and Islamic values”, Iran's Green Movement draws upon Hussainian ideology to achieve its aims. Thus Muharram provides the movement with the great opportunity to rejuvenate itself through the symbol and ideas of Karbala.

The first message? Do not stay quiet, no matter how many (or few) you are or how strong your opponents may be. The second lesson? There may not be an immediate result, but the true victory is the raising of voices against injustice, a stand that will forever remain within history.

Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context

EA correspondent Mr Smith explores the meaning behind yesterday's protests, and looks ahead to the next wave of demonstrations:

In Iran's never ending calendar of public events and commemorations, 16 Azar, or National Student's Day, could hardly have passed without a serious confrontation erupting between the Ahmadinejad regime and the student population of Iran. Protests against Ahmadinejad on 7 December preceded by almost three years the electoral drama of June. In 2006, the president made an ill-fated trip to the Polytechnic, only to be shouted down by students chanting one of the symbolic slogans of today - Marg bar Diktator, or "Death to the Dictator".

The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

The students were therefore motivated and cohesive in their turn-out yesterday. Brazenly defying the heightened security atmosphere, which led to yet another round of arrests amongst activists in the past few weeks and the presence of heavy-handed security forces over all central Tehran yesterday, tens of thousands of students took control of prestigious campuses such as the Polytechnic, University of Tehran, Sharif and Ahmadinejad's own alma mater, Science and Technology University. Indeed, their presence was so overwhelming that the security forces tactfully remained on the sidelines, conducting arrests just outside university perimeters and harrassing ordinary people who attempted to join the protestors within campuses. It was therefore a manifestation of the character and resilience of the opposition, which is now capable of organising spontaneous large scale demonstration through the mobilisation of only part of its forces (students in this case), and does not even consult with the leadership nor require them to be on the streets. In this sense, the potential of the Green wave of today is higher than the gigantic crowds that drove the Shah from power at the end of 1978, which crucially relied upon a highly organised and effectively clerical-secular leadership.

Despite refinements in the repressive tactics of security forces, which have essentially managed to contain killings in streets past June 20 and deployed taser guns rather than live bullets yesterday, the continuation of large-scale protests inevitably will force the top leadership to accept that the legitimacy of its rule now hangs on a threads and dismissing the protesters as dirt, dust or small-fry is simply a blatant lie. This could in turn lead the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime to increasing equip itself with the hallmarks of a veritable police state like Baathist Syria and do away with the limited pluralism that has not entirely disappeared after the elections.

Yesterday also witnessed, however, the rise to prominence of more radical elements of the Green wave. Footage and anecdotal evidence of strong sentiment against Ayatollah Khamenei and the principles of the Islamic Republic were circulated widely on the Internet. This is a potentially worrying development for Mousavi and the reformist leadership, which is attempting to ward off accusations that it intends to get rid of the Islamic Republic altogether. The broadcasting of the footage can hence be embarassing for Mousavi and Karroubi and, seperately, reveals the disparate nature of the forces that are grouped, within the country, in what is known as the Green wave. This in turn raises compelling questions for Mousavi and Karroubi. Six months on, their repeated appeals for a negotiated political situation to the crisis, occasionally backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, have fallen on deaf ears. Their gradualism is producing discontent, and could be the reason for the need to revise strategy by Mousavi and Karroubi.
The horizon, however, does not bode well for the regime. Moharram starts in 10 days time, and Ashoura and Tasua beckon. The two days saw 4 million people in the streets at the end of 1978, undermining the Shah's regime's legitimacy once and for all. This is a historic event the current Tehran leadership won't fondly remember.