Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context

EA correspondent Mr Smith explores the meaning behind yesterday's protests, and looks ahead to the next wave of demonstrations:

In Iran's never ending calendar of public events and commemorations, 16 Azar, or National Student's Day, could hardly have passed without a serious confrontation erupting between the Ahmadinejad regime and the student population of Iran. Protests against Ahmadinejad on 7 December preceded by almost three years the electoral drama of June. In 2006, the president made an ill-fated trip to the Polytechnic, only to be shouted down by students chanting one of the symbolic slogans of today - Marg bar Diktator, or "Death to the Dictator".

The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

The students were therefore motivated and cohesive in their turn-out yesterday. Brazenly defying the heightened security atmosphere, which led to yet another round of arrests amongst activists in the past few weeks and the presence of heavy-handed security forces over all central Tehran yesterday, tens of thousands of students took control of prestigious campuses such as the Polytechnic, University of Tehran, Sharif and Ahmadinejad's own alma mater, Science and Technology University. Indeed, their presence was so overwhelming that the security forces tactfully remained on the sidelines, conducting arrests just outside university perimeters and harrassing ordinary people who attempted to join the protestors within campuses. It was therefore a manifestation of the character and resilience of the opposition, which is now capable of organising spontaneous large scale demonstration through the mobilisation of only part of its forces (students in this case), and does not even consult with the leadership nor require them to be on the streets. In this sense, the potential of the Green wave of today is higher than the gigantic crowds that drove the Shah from power at the end of 1978, which crucially relied upon a highly organised and effectively clerical-secular leadership.

Despite refinements in the repressive tactics of security forces, which have essentially managed to contain killings in streets past June 20 and deployed taser guns rather than live bullets yesterday, the continuation of large-scale protests inevitably will force the top leadership to accept that the legitimacy of its rule now hangs on a threads and dismissing the protesters as dirt, dust or small-fry is simply a blatant lie. This could in turn lead the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime to increasing equip itself with the hallmarks of a veritable police state like Baathist Syria and do away with the limited pluralism that has not entirely disappeared after the elections.

Yesterday also witnessed, however, the rise to prominence of more radical elements of the Green wave. Footage and anecdotal evidence of strong sentiment against Ayatollah Khamenei and the principles of the Islamic Republic were circulated widely on the Internet. This is a potentially worrying development for Mousavi and the reformist leadership, which is attempting to ward off accusations that it intends to get rid of the Islamic Republic altogether. The broadcasting of the footage can hence be embarassing for Mousavi and Karroubi and, seperately, reveals the disparate nature of the forces that are grouped, within the country, in what is known as the Green wave. This in turn raises compelling questions for Mousavi and Karroubi. Six months on, their repeated appeals for a negotiated political situation to the crisis, occasionally backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, have fallen on deaf ears. Their gradualism is producing discontent, and could be the reason for the need to revise strategy by Mousavi and Karroubi.
The horizon, however, does not bode well for the regime. Moharram starts in 10 days time, and Ashoura and Tasua beckon. The two days saw 4 million people in the streets at the end of 1978, undermining the Shah's regime's legitimacy once and for all. This is a historic event the current Tehran leadership won't fondly remember.