The Latest From Iran (21 December): The Montazeri Funeral

2140 GMT: Sharing a Laugh. At the end of an emotional day, it's good to relax with a bit of a laugh. So, over to you, pro-regime Kayhan newspaper: there were "a maximum of about 5000" in the crowd at the Montazeri ceremonies, as reformists "completely failed to create "a popular gathering".

Oh, you pranksters....

1925 GMT: Arrest of the Activists. Shiva Nazar Ahari and Kouhyar Goodarzi, arrested yesterday as they travelled to Qom, are still detained. Mahboubeh Abbas Gholizadeh was released earlier today.

A video of Gholizadeh's interview of Nazar Ahari, carried out just before her arrest, has been posted in two parts.

1910 GMT: We continue to add the best of today's videos as we come across them (Set 1 and Set 2). The latest discovery? A lengthy clip of Mehdi Karroubi at the ceremonies.

1850 GMT: Clashes and Occupation (2). Rah-e-Sabz publishes the story we have been hearing for a few hours: The car of Mir Hossein Mousavi was attacked, allegedly by plainclothes forces, as it returned to Tehran from Qom, breaking the rear windscreen. A passenger was injured; Mousavi was unhurt. One of the attackers also suffered minor injuries.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Mourning Montazeri (21 December — 2nd Set)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mourning Montazeri (21 December — 1st Set)
NEW Iran & The Nuclear Talks: The View from Tehran
NEW Iran Video & Text: Montazeri’s Son Saeed On His Father’s Views, Last Words
Iran Document: Karroubi Responds to Threat of Arrest
Latest Iran Video: Montazeri’s Criticism of Supreme Leader Khamenei (1997; redistributed October 2009)
Latest Iran Video: Demonstrations in Memory of Montazeri (20 December)
Iran Special LiveBlog: Ayatollah Montazeri Has Died
The Latest from Iran (20 December): Montazeri Death; Regime Scrambles for Legitimacy

1830 GMT: Clashes and Occupation (1). Back from a short break to find that Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah, has said "several people" were injured in clashes with security forces. Some of those forces are still "occupying" the Imam Hassan Mosque where services took place this morning.

1630 GMT: And Now the Lighter Side of the News. Beyond the significant events surrounding the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, this revelation of the words of President Ahmadinejad's aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai in Copenhagen last week:

Iran is a creditor for the international community and the whole of the world is indebted to it. Because Iran is the most important of the founders of human society and urbanism. "We are a rich and resourceful country but our resources are not oil and gas, it is the Iranian culture. Today, because of a smart, witty and courageous son, Mr. Ahmadinejad, deceiving it [Iran] has become impossible.

Ahmadinejad is the manifestation of a well-informed, wise and passionate Iranian who has stood in front of international politics so that everyone understands that the path of Iran's development cannot be abandoned.

1600 GMT: We've started a second set of videos of today's events.

1555 GMT:Khordaad 88 has posted the video and English transcript of one of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's last interviews, which was with Radio Zamaaneh on the subject of his 1989 split with Ayatollah Khomeini.

1520 GMT: Mardomak is reporting that the Montazeri family has cancelled the funeral reception because of conditions similar to "martial law" around their home.

1515 GMT: Back after a break --- thanks to Tricia Sutherland for minding the EA shop.

1325 GMT: Activists report that demonstrations and vigils in Tehran tonight for 8-10 p.m. local time (1630-1830 GMT) at  Vanak Square, Vali-e Asr, 7 Tir, Mohseni, Azadi, and Enghelab.

1314 GMT: BBC Persian television is continuing to broadcast into Iran despite attempts by the regime to jam its signal.

1300 GMT: Among new videos from Qom and elsewhere in Tehran are chants  "We will fight, we will never die, we will not accept oppression", "Dictator, shame on you, leave your monarchy", and "Dictator, dictator, Montezari is alive".

1243 GMT: Online new service reports that Qom police protected mourners and demonstrators from basijis and plain-clothed security forces, who destroyed Montezari banners.

1125 GMT: A Pause. We're taking a break for a bit to catch our breath. Please keep sending in information of anything we have missed and check out our videos and analysis.

1110 GMT: Mediawatch. The top story on the BBC website's is "Clashes reported at funeral of Iranian dissident cleric". In contrast, CNN has not updated its article to mention today's funeral, let alone consider its significance.

1100 GMT: Among the chants on videos from Qom: "Those who cheated tore up the photos [of Ayatollah Khomeini]"; "Political prisoners must be freed".

1010 GMT: Andisheh-ye No (New Thought), one of five papers warned this weekend for not paying due attention to "large" pro-Government rallies on Friday has been banned from publishing.

1005 GMT: Iran Mediawatch. It looks like Mehr News has defied the Government command to ignore the crowds for Montazeri. It has photos of the gathering and of prominent figures paying condolences. It may be a sign of demand for confirmation of events or, alternatively, Internet restrictions in Iran that Mehr's website appears to be overloaded.

0940 GMT: Images of Mourning. Photos have been posted of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi paying their respects inside the Montazeri house. We have also posted the first videos of mass demonstrations in Qom and Najafabad.

0910 GMT: Press TV just posted a short report on the funeral of "leading clerical figure Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri". It mentions the Supreme Leader's condolences, omitting the criticisms of Montazeri.

There is no mention, however, of the crowds in Qom.

0905 GMT: The View from the Other Site --- Montazeri & "Terrorists". One of the few remarks from an Iran-based commentator in non-Iranian media is in Al Jazeera English's coverage. It comes from Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi:

[Montazeri said] the same thing for around 25 years....After his inner circle was discovered to be linked to Mujahidin terrorists based in Iraq, he was isolated by the reformists....He is not a major player and has always been very critical.

0855 GMT: Iranian Mediawatch. Press TV's website has nothing on the funeral (now see 910 GMT). The Iranian Labor News Agency's English site has a short item that "thousands of mourners converged" on Qom and that Mir Hossein Mousavi attended. ILNA also uses the title "Ayatollah" for Montazeri, who was "one of the leaders of the 1979 Iranian Revolution along with the founder of the Islamic Republic Imam Khomeini".

ILNA also emphasises, via the word of Montazeri's doctor, that the cleric died of natural causes.

0850 GMT: New Entries. We have posted the video and translation of an interview given by Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's son Saeed yesterday on his father's last words and views: "I think one of the main reasons [for his death] was his grief for the post-election events which troubled my father a lot."

And, on another front, we have posted a view from Tehran of the current Iranian position in the nuclear talks with the "West" and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

0840 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh, in a long report on the funeral, confirms that both Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were in the procession.

0810 GMT: Montazeri's son has asked the crowd to quiet their chants, but the protests continue.

0805 GMT: Mediawatch. The Montazeri ceremonies/protests are now the lead item on the BBC, with Jon Leyne providing an excellent summary both of today's gathering and of attempted Government restrictions. Leyne says that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were in the funeral procession, a claim that we have been unable to confirm.

0735 GMT: With security forces apparently trying to move people from the Shrine, crowds are moving about Qom, with many reportedly headed toward Montazeri's house.

0730 GMT: The doors of the Masoumeh Shrine have been closed because of the size of the crowd.

0720 GMT: Numerous reports of the crowd's mourning turning into a protest with chants against the Government and even the Supreme Leader.

0657 GMT: It appears the ceremony proceeded more quickly than we first reported (0615 GMT). Reports now that Montazeri has been buried in the Massoumeh Shrine.

0650 GMT: The article in Time from Robin Wright, one of the best US-based journalists on Iran, is to the point: "Iran's Opposition Loses a Mentor But Gains a Martyr".

0643 GMT: Josh Shahryar has posted a tribute, "Good Bye Montazeri, You Will Be Missed": "The struggle for freedom, human rights and justice will continue. If we’ve learned anything in the past six months it is that the Iranian people’s desire for change will not die with the death of an individual – no matter how important that individual may be."

0640 GMT: Ayatollah Shobeiri-Zanjani is now leading prayers.

0630 GMT: A LiveBlog from Qom is claiming "hundreds of thousands" are now in the streets. Reported chant: "Montazeri is not dead; the Government is dead."

0615 GMT (0945 Tehran & Qom): The mourning ceremonies for Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri began about 30 minutes ago in Qom, with his body being taken from his house to the Imam Hassan mosque. In about 45 minutes, the procession will move from the mosque to the Masoumeh Shrine. There are reports, despite Government efforts to limit or prevent attendance, tens of thousands have lined the route.

As well as the reported orders from the regime to Iranian newspapers to prohibit his photograph on front pages, to ignore Montazeri's political significance and emphasise the 1989 incident that led to his dismissal as Ayatollah Khomeini's successor, the Government is jamming BBC Persian.

Iran Analysis: Are Rafsanjani and National Unity Plan "Spent Forces"?

Many thanks to readers and EA colleagues who gave valuable feedback and criticism on yesterday's analysis of the meetings between clerics and Hashemi Rafsanjani discussing moves for a National Unity Plan manoeuvring between the Ahmadinejad Government and the Green opposition.

A basic but, I think, important start to a reply: there is a big difference between questioning whether meetings took place and questioning whether those meetings will be effective.

Iran Exclusive: Clerics and Rafsanjani Plan The “Third Way” of Unity
The Latest from Iran (10 December): Reading the Chessboard

Almost all the reaction has focused on that second question. Some readers noted, quite rightly, that Nasser Makarem-Shirazi is the only Ayatollah who has gone public, and then in general terms regarding "unity" rather than in reference to the meetings. That's a fair point, even though we have information that other senior clerics have been involved in the discussions.

Some readers have questioned whether any Plan can get the approval of the Supreme Leader or, alternatively, the Revolutionary Guard.

Again, that is a necessary challenge, but any Plan is likely to be a tactical move against the authority of the President rather than a strategic approach for re-alignment or major change in the Iranian system. The question then becomes not whether Ayatollah Khamenei will defy any proposal revising velayat-e-faqih but whether he will side with the "third way" against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. (I agree that, if the Revolutionary Guard rather than the Supreme Leader are in charge that even this is problematic, but I don't start from that assumption at this point.)

Note: there is a related issue here as to whether the Supreme Leader is in an unshakeable position where he can wield a veto without any repercussions on his position. So far, I think that is true, but there have been rumblings during this crisis aimed at Khamenei's undisputed authority. While these seemed to have been quelled, a firm No No No by the Supreme Leader to a Plan which has wide support could risk a backlash such as that against his 19 June speech trying to close off the Presidential election.

Perhaps the most significant criticism, however, is that neither the clerics nor Rafsanjani now have that much influence. As one EA colleague put it bluntly yesterday, Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi is a "spent force" and Rafsanjani "no longer has substantial power".

That, to me, is a telling statement. Throughout this crisis, one of the recurrent assumptions has been that Rafsanjani --- the master political operator, "the Shark" --- could play a decisive role in this conflict. That assumption underlay the excitement around his mid-July Friday Prayer speech and the disappointment over his non-appearance at prayers in August (and since) and the weak statement of the Assembly of Experts under his leadership.

In September, however, protesters were chanting on Qods Day, "Hashemi, where are you?". The possibility arose that they were chanting this not because they needed Rafsanjani but because they now felt they could get along without him.

In October we carried the news, offered by Habibollah Asgharoladi, that Rafsanjani had taken the National Unity Plan to the Supreme Leader. Since nothing more was heard, that approach was probably rebuffed.

So, to me, it is quite likely that Rafsanjani has tried to re-establish not only the Plan but his own place in Iranian politics with the recent meetings. Arguing that the Plan is likely to go nowhere implies that Rafsanjani, amidst the continued threats to his family and his own retreat from public apprearances since August, is likely to go nowhere. He is now an isolated as well as a spent force.

But is that the case? An EA source reports that Asgharoladi, in addition to his recent meeting with Rafsanjani, also saw the President. He criticised Ahmadinejad for his weak relationships with the senior clerics and Rafsanjani and for his support of the controversial former 1st Vice President and current Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

An EA colleague cautions that Asgharoladi and his party are now marginal political actors, but the Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar renewed his attack on Ahmadinejad yesterday. He criticised Ahmadinejad for the way the President has dealt with and treated the parliament, and he also derided the interference of the Revolutionary Guard in politics and the economy. It may be far from incidental that Bahonar had been a supporter of the National Unity Plan earlier in the autumn.

An EA colleague may have gotten to the heart of the matter and any "Third Way": "The one element that could tip the balance, as said in the past, would be the Larijani brothers swaying towards the Rafs camp. That has hasn't happened yet."

Yet. Ali Larijani, as Speaker of Parliament, could be a catalytic force given the hostility to Ahmadinejad amongst key Parliamentary members. His brother Sadegh, head of Iran's judiciary, may also have a role: yesterday, the newspaper Jomhoori Islami --- owned by Masih Mohajeri, who accompanied Rafsanjani to the Mashhad meetings last week --- asked Sadegh Larijani, "Why don’t you take action against Ahmadinejad and his friends who corrupt and play with people's religious beliefs?"

After 24 hours of reflection, the easy decision is to stand by the exclusive we published yesterday: at least in the eyes of those who met last week --- clerics, Asgharoladi, and Rafsanjani --- the National Unity Plan is not a "spent force".

The tougher analysis is: what next? Given the caveats that readers put yesterday, it is time to put away any thought of Rafsanjani --- for all his past prowess --- being the Shark who changes the political waters. More big fish are needed.

But will they surface?

The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei took aim at the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani: “If there are any charges against Mehdi Hashemi, he should be summoned and his case investigated. If he is found guilty, he should be punished without any mercy."

Subtext? The Government is pulling out the threats because it is worried that Rafsanjani is up to something big.

And guess what? He is. Tune in first thing tomorrow morning.

2100 GMT: Cyber-Protest. The Green Movement has hacked the website of Gilan University. The homepage still features a protest poster and the slogan, "Green Movement is Alive".

Iran: It Isn’t Over – The Protests of 17 Azar (8 December)
Iran 16 Azar Analysis: “Something is Happening”
Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 4rd Set (8 December)
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 3rd Set (7 December)
Iran’s 16 Azar: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli
Iran’s 16 Azar: Eyewitness Summaries from Tehran
Iran’s 16 Azar: A Tribute to Activism, Video, & EA’s Readers (Wall Street Journal)
At the End of 16 Azar: A Musical Thought
Iran’s 16 Azar: A Review of the Day’s Events Throughout the Country
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 2nd Set (7 December)
Iran’s 16 Azar Protests: An Interim Analysis & Questions for the Green Movement
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar (7 December)
The Latest from Iran (7 December): The Marches of 16 Azar

2040 GMT: Thinking through the Protests of 16 Azar (and 17 Azar as Well). With events finally slowing a bit tonight, we have a couple of treats for thinking for you. Josh Shahryar has reviewed today's developments, including the renewed protests and clashes at Iran's universities. Complementing the analysis of 16 Azar by our Mr Smith, we've got the interpretation of Masoud at The Newest Deal, "Something is Happening".

1818 GMT: We're hoping to have an evening summary soon of the ongoing protests and clashes today. Our estimate from reports is more than 200 arrested in the continuing demonstrations on University campuses.

1726 GMT: No confirmation yet about Mousavi's alleged arrest. Meanwhile, more from judiciary official Gholam Hossein Mohsen-Ejei (see 1325 GMT): "I declare that from today on there will be no tolerance....We will warn and take other necessary measures even against the Tehran prosecutor if he is not sensitive about those who violate people's rights and disrupt the order in the city every day."

1715 GMT: Establishment Split of the Day. A good EA source reports that Jahan News, the newspaper of the Revolutionary Guard, has criticised close Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as being "not a true friend" of the President. The newspaper notes that two of Mashai's brothers are in the US, implying a possible connection to foreign intelligence services, and suggests that Mashai convened political meetings without the full knowledge of Ahmadinejad.

1700 GMT: A reliable EA source reports that the Iranian authorities are indicating they will soon lift the suspension of the newspaper Hayat-e-No (see 1130 GMT) for criticising security forces on 16 Azar.

However, Ayande is in serious trouble. Its editor was called into the Press Court yesterday for criticising President Ahmadinejad, and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has now indicted the editor.

1636 GMT: Unconfirmed reports from Iran (and apparently also on German TV) indicate that Mir Housein Mousavi has been arrested. However, this has been denied so far by his adviser Alireza Beheshti.

1441 GMT: Many reports are coming in of security forces attacking students within Tehran University. Videos are here.

1325 GMT: 16 Azar Didn't End. There is heavy Internet chatter of continuing protests and clashes on and near Tehran's university campuses. We are monitoring to try and sift out news from the claims.

Meanwhile, judiciary official (and former Minister of Intelligence) Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has declared that the gloves are now off with protesters: "From now on, we will show no mercy towards anyone who acts against national security. They will be confronted firmly."

1310 GMT: The Mousavi Incident Today. An Iranian activist has summarised:

Plainclothes forces on motorcycles surrounded Arts Institute [Mousavi's offices]. As Mousavi was leaving this afternoon, they started chanting anti-Mousavi slogans. (These same people were riding around Arts Institute yesterday too.)

Against advice of his security people, Mousavi got out of his car and walked towards plainclothes and shouted at them, "You are on a mission, do your job; threaten me, beat me, kill me." Mousavi's security detail took him back inside the building.

A Kalameh reporter who was on the scene, without introducing himself, asked a plainclothes officer what they were doing. The officer answered, "We have been ordered to make Mousavi's movements difficult."

1150 GMT: Urgent - Mousavi Detained? First, an apology in that I got story tangled in posting at 0943 GMT: it appears Mir Hossein Mousavi was surrounded in his offices this morning, not yesterday. Unconfirmed reports were that he has been taken away by plainclothes security, but it is now claimed that the security has backed away and Mousavi has left the building safely.

1135 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Interview and "Unity". Amidst yesterday's events, we briefly mentioned Mehdi Karroubi's only "public" appearance, an interview with France's Le Monde. The headline of the interview is "Repression is Not the Solution", but perhaps the most intriguing passage, in the current political climate, is this:

A national reconciliation? The option is good and reasonable, as the "wise men" of the two sides are not opposed. But to get there, prepare the ground. And right now, the conditions are not met: some do not want to give up and want to keep everything for themselves. Repression, in any case, is not the answer either today or tomorrow.

The solution to achieve reconciliation, tolerance, and acceptance of criticism. We must work to restore trust between the people and authorities. Among fundamentalists, some moderates share this view but, unfortunately, they do not have much power. But I know that the Iranian people are a great people, smart and patient, and I am optimistic about the future of this country.

1130 GMT: More Clues on Internal Turmoil. A top EA source has brought us up to date on yesterday's closure of Hayat-e-No newspaper, now reported on a pro-Mousavi website.

The newspaper is considered "reformist" but is owned by Hadi Khamenei, brother of the Supreme Leader. The EA source says the paper has been banned because of a headline yesterday morning that the commemoration of 16 Azar was being suppressed by police force.

1120 GMT: Updates will be scattered and post-16 Azar put off to Wednesday, as we're in the middle of academic duties.

However, we can dangle this prospect before you: we have an exclusive information pointing to a major development in Iranian politics. It involves leading clerics, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the National Unity Plan. There is a big clue in the 0815 GMT entry on Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi.

0943 GMT: Mousavi Again Prevented from Attending Rally? Mardomak is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi, as on 13 Aban, was blockaded in his offices by plainclothes security officers. In this case, there were about 40 who blocking Mousavi's departure. He allegedly told them, "Kill me, beat me, threaten me."

0815 GMT: Clerical Call for the National Unity Plan? One interesting development that we missed yesterday: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, interviewed last Thursday, offered the following call for unity:

Wherever there is war, a peace treaty is not suddenly achieved. They should introduce a truce first and then after a while when the tensions settle, they hold negotiations in a calm environment. I believe that a truce should be worked out. If we want to reach unity, there is a strategy for it.

When we talk about unity, we are talking about people who believe in the constitution, leadership, Islam, and the interests of the country. Those who believe in those issues can reach unity. However, the precondition is to create a calm environment and then some people, who are respected by society and are moderate thinkers, should agree on the principles of unity. I do not believe that we have reached the end of the road, there is no deadlock.

I have worked out a few principles but cannot discuss them under the current circumstances. If a calm atmosphere is created and if some people step forward to reach unity, then I will pronounce my views, too. I believe we can reach unity.

I have repeatedly said that there were a few rioters who should be dealt with separately. However, a large number of people formed the majority in the elections and another large number of people the minority. We should create understanding between the two groups. After all they are 13-14 million people who live in this country and the 24-25 million people (referring to pro-Ahmadinejad voters) who live in this country, too. In other countries, figures less than these are cared for and governments negotiate with 2-3 million people.

We should sit together and negotiate and the precondition to that is the creation of a calm atmosphere.

0730 GMT: We're still going through yesterday's events, picking up news and thinking through the significance. The title of this LiveBlog relates to the analysis that we're discussing and debating, hopefully to post later today: what was the extent of the victory in the marches of 16 Azar and what questions does it pose --- for the regime, for prominent opposition figures, and for the Green Wave(s)?

We have two summaries of what happened: from EA correspondent Josh Shahryar, who was involved in the live-blog throughout the day, and from an EA source who collected information from eyewitnesses in Tehran. We've got Set 1 and Set 2 of the best videos of the day.

An EA reader reports this morning on the arrest of student activist Majid Tavakoli in yesterday's protests.

There's a tribute to the work of EA readers from The Wall Street Journal. There's a personal thanks from Scott Lucas via a musical thought. And don't forget to vote in our Iran-related Caption Contest.

The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation

2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:

At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.

The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....

Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.

2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."

This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."

2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."

More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."

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Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.

Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.

1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.

1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.

1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.

1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.

1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:

As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.

That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.

Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).

Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?

1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.

The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".

1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")

Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."

0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".

0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?

0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of  talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.

Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University


2. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University


3. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University


4. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University


5. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.

There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.