The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei took aim at the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani: “If there are any charges against Mehdi Hashemi, he should be summoned and his case investigated. If he is found guilty, he should be punished without any mercy."

Subtext? The Government is pulling out the threats because it is worried that Rafsanjani is up to something big.

And guess what? He is. Tune in first thing tomorrow morning.

2100 GMT: Cyber-Protest. The Green Movement has hacked the website of Gilan University. The homepage still features a protest poster and the slogan, "Green Movement is Alive".

Iran: It Isn’t Over – The Protests of 17 Azar (8 December)
Iran 16 Azar Analysis: “Something is Happening”
Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 4rd Set (8 December)
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 3rd Set (7 December)
Iran’s 16 Azar: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli
Iran’s 16 Azar: Eyewitness Summaries from Tehran
Iran’s 16 Azar: A Tribute to Activism, Video, & EA’s Readers (Wall Street Journal)
At the End of 16 Azar: A Musical Thought
Iran’s 16 Azar: A Review of the Day’s Events Throughout the Country
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 2nd Set (7 December)
Iran’s 16 Azar Protests: An Interim Analysis & Questions for the Green Movement
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar (7 December)
The Latest from Iran (7 December): The Marches of 16 Azar

2040 GMT: Thinking through the Protests of 16 Azar (and 17 Azar as Well). With events finally slowing a bit tonight, we have a couple of treats for thinking for you. Josh Shahryar has reviewed today's developments, including the renewed protests and clashes at Iran's universities. Complementing the analysis of 16 Azar by our Mr Smith, we've got the interpretation of Masoud at The Newest Deal, "Something is Happening".

1818 GMT: We're hoping to have an evening summary soon of the ongoing protests and clashes today. Our estimate from reports is more than 200 arrested in the continuing demonstrations on University campuses.

1726 GMT: No confirmation yet about Mousavi's alleged arrest. Meanwhile, more from judiciary official Gholam Hossein Mohsen-Ejei (see 1325 GMT): "I declare that from today on there will be no tolerance....We will warn and take other necessary measures even against the Tehran prosecutor if he is not sensitive about those who violate people's rights and disrupt the order in the city every day."

1715 GMT: Establishment Split of the Day. A good EA source reports that Jahan News, the newspaper of the Revolutionary Guard, has criticised close Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as being "not a true friend" of the President. The newspaper notes that two of Mashai's brothers are in the US, implying a possible connection to foreign intelligence services, and suggests that Mashai convened political meetings without the full knowledge of Ahmadinejad.

1700 GMT: A reliable EA source reports that the Iranian authorities are indicating they will soon lift the suspension of the newspaper Hayat-e-No (see 1130 GMT) for criticising security forces on 16 Azar.

However, Ayande is in serious trouble. Its editor was called into the Press Court yesterday for criticising President Ahmadinejad, and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has now indicted the editor.

1636 GMT: Unconfirmed reports from Iran (and apparently also on German TV) indicate that Mir Housein Mousavi has been arrested. However, this has been denied so far by his adviser Alireza Beheshti.

1441 GMT: Many reports are coming in of security forces attacking students within Tehran University. Videos are here.

1325 GMT: 16 Azar Didn't End. There is heavy Internet chatter of continuing protests and clashes on and near Tehran's university campuses. We are monitoring to try and sift out news from the claims.

Meanwhile, judiciary official (and former Minister of Intelligence) Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has declared that the gloves are now off with protesters: "From now on, we will show no mercy towards anyone who acts against national security. They will be confronted firmly."

1310 GMT: The Mousavi Incident Today. An Iranian activist has summarised:

Plainclothes forces on motorcycles surrounded Arts Institute [Mousavi's offices]. As Mousavi was leaving this afternoon, they started chanting anti-Mousavi slogans. (These same people were riding around Arts Institute yesterday too.)

Against advice of his security people, Mousavi got out of his car and walked towards plainclothes and shouted at them, "You are on a mission, do your job; threaten me, beat me, kill me." Mousavi's security detail took him back inside the building.

A Kalameh reporter who was on the scene, without introducing himself, asked a plainclothes officer what they were doing. The officer answered, "We have been ordered to make Mousavi's movements difficult."

1150 GMT: Urgent - Mousavi Detained? First, an apology in that I got story tangled in posting at 0943 GMT: it appears Mir Hossein Mousavi was surrounded in his offices this morning, not yesterday. Unconfirmed reports were that he has been taken away by plainclothes security, but it is now claimed that the security has backed away and Mousavi has left the building safely.

1135 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Interview and "Unity". Amidst yesterday's events, we briefly mentioned Mehdi Karroubi's only "public" appearance, an interview with France's Le Monde. The headline of the interview is "Repression is Not the Solution", but perhaps the most intriguing passage, in the current political climate, is this:

A national reconciliation? The option is good and reasonable, as the "wise men" of the two sides are not opposed. But to get there, prepare the ground. And right now, the conditions are not met: some do not want to give up and want to keep everything for themselves. Repression, in any case, is not the answer either today or tomorrow.

The solution to achieve reconciliation, tolerance, and acceptance of criticism. We must work to restore trust between the people and authorities. Among fundamentalists, some moderates share this view but, unfortunately, they do not have much power. But I know that the Iranian people are a great people, smart and patient, and I am optimistic about the future of this country.

1130 GMT: More Clues on Internal Turmoil. A top EA source has brought us up to date on yesterday's closure of Hayat-e-No newspaper, now reported on a pro-Mousavi website.

The newspaper is considered "reformist" but is owned by Hadi Khamenei, brother of the Supreme Leader. The EA source says the paper has been banned because of a headline yesterday morning that the commemoration of 16 Azar was being suppressed by police force.

1120 GMT: Updates will be scattered and post-16 Azar put off to Wednesday, as we're in the middle of academic duties.

However, we can dangle this prospect before you: we have an exclusive information pointing to a major development in Iranian politics. It involves leading clerics, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the National Unity Plan. There is a big clue in the 0815 GMT entry on Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi.

0943 GMT: Mousavi Again Prevented from Attending Rally? Mardomak is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi, as on 13 Aban, was blockaded in his offices by plainclothes security officers. In this case, there were about 40 who blocking Mousavi's departure. He allegedly told them, "Kill me, beat me, threaten me."

0815 GMT: Clerical Call for the National Unity Plan? One interesting development that we missed yesterday: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, interviewed last Thursday, offered the following call for unity:

Wherever there is war, a peace treaty is not suddenly achieved. They should introduce a truce first and then after a while when the tensions settle, they hold negotiations in a calm environment. I believe that a truce should be worked out. If we want to reach unity, there is a strategy for it.

When we talk about unity, we are talking about people who believe in the constitution, leadership, Islam, and the interests of the country. Those who believe in those issues can reach unity. However, the precondition is to create a calm environment and then some people, who are respected by society and are moderate thinkers, should agree on the principles of unity. I do not believe that we have reached the end of the road, there is no deadlock.

I have worked out a few principles but cannot discuss them under the current circumstances. If a calm atmosphere is created and if some people step forward to reach unity, then I will pronounce my views, too. I believe we can reach unity.

I have repeatedly said that there were a few rioters who should be dealt with separately. However, a large number of people formed the majority in the elections and another large number of people the minority. We should create understanding between the two groups. After all they are 13-14 million people who live in this country and the 24-25 million people (referring to pro-Ahmadinejad voters) who live in this country, too. In other countries, figures less than these are cared for and governments negotiate with 2-3 million people.

We should sit together and negotiate and the precondition to that is the creation of a calm atmosphere.

0730 GMT: We're still going through yesterday's events, picking up news and thinking through the significance. The title of this LiveBlog relates to the analysis that we're discussing and debating, hopefully to post later today: what was the extent of the victory in the marches of 16 Azar and what questions does it pose --- for the regime, for prominent opposition figures, and for the Green Wave(s)?

We have two summaries of what happened: from EA correspondent Josh Shahryar, who was involved in the live-blog throughout the day, and from an EA source who collected information from eyewitnesses in Tehran. We've got Set 1 and Set 2 of the best videos of the day.

An EA reader reports this morning on the arrest of student activist Majid Tavakoli in yesterday's protests.

There's a tribute to the work of EA readers from The Wall Street Journal. There's a personal thanks from Scott Lucas via a musical thought. And don't forget to vote in our Iran-related Caption Contest.