The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

2140 GMT: A Special Note for Closing (and for Opening Tomorrow). In another portion of his press confernce, Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei took aim at the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani: “If there are any charges against Mehdi Hashemi, he should be summoned and his case investigated. If he is found guilty, he should be punished without any mercy."

Subtext? The Government is pulling out the threats because it is worried that Rafsanjani is up to something big.

And guess what? He is. Tune in first thing tomorrow morning.

2100 GMT: Cyber-Protest. The Green Movement has hacked the website of Gilan University. The homepage still features a protest poster and the slogan, "Green Movement is Alive".

Iran: It Isn’t Over – The Protests of 17 Azar (8 December)
Iran 16 Azar Analysis: “Something is Happening”
Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 4rd Set (8 December)
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 3rd Set (7 December)
Iran’s 16 Azar: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli
Iran’s 16 Azar: Eyewitness Summaries from Tehran
Iran’s 16 Azar: A Tribute to Activism, Video, & EA’s Readers (Wall Street Journal)
At the End of 16 Azar: A Musical Thought
Iran’s 16 Azar: A Review of the Day’s Events Throughout the Country
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar – 2nd Set (7 December)
Iran’s 16 Azar Protests: An Interim Analysis & Questions for the Green Movement
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar (7 December)
The Latest from Iran (7 December): The Marches of 16 Azar

2040 GMT: Thinking through the Protests of 16 Azar (and 17 Azar as Well). With events finally slowing a bit tonight, we have a couple of treats for thinking for you. Josh Shahryar has reviewed today's developments, including the renewed protests and clashes at Iran's universities. Complementing the analysis of 16 Azar by our Mr Smith, we've got the interpretation of Masoud at The Newest Deal, "Something is Happening".

1818 GMT: We're hoping to have an evening summary soon of the ongoing protests and clashes today. Our estimate from reports is more than 200 arrested in the continuing demonstrations on University campuses.

1726 GMT: No confirmation yet about Mousavi's alleged arrest. Meanwhile, more from judiciary official Gholam Hossein Mohsen-Ejei (see 1325 GMT): "I declare that from today on there will be no tolerance....We will warn and take other necessary measures even against the Tehran prosecutor if he is not sensitive about those who violate people's rights and disrupt the order in the city every day."

1715 GMT: Establishment Split of the Day. A good EA source reports that Jahan News, the newspaper of the Revolutionary Guard, has criticised close Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as being "not a true friend" of the President. The newspaper notes that two of Mashai's brothers are in the US, implying a possible connection to foreign intelligence services, and suggests that Mashai convened political meetings without the full knowledge of Ahmadinejad.

1700 GMT: A reliable EA source reports that the Iranian authorities are indicating they will soon lift the suspension of the newspaper Hayat-e-No (see 1130 GMT) for criticising security forces on 16 Azar.

However, Ayande is in serious trouble. Its editor was called into the Press Court yesterday for criticising President Ahmadinejad, and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has now indicted the editor.

1636 GMT: Unconfirmed reports from Iran (and apparently also on German TV) indicate that Mir Housein Mousavi has been arrested. However, this has been denied so far by his adviser Alireza Beheshti.

1441 GMT: Many reports are coming in of security forces attacking students within Tehran University. Videos are here.

1325 GMT: 16 Azar Didn't End. There is heavy Internet chatter of continuing protests and clashes on and near Tehran's university campuses. We are monitoring to try and sift out news from the claims.

Meanwhile, judiciary official (and former Minister of Intelligence) Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has declared that the gloves are now off with protesters: "From now on, we will show no mercy towards anyone who acts against national security. They will be confronted firmly."

1310 GMT: The Mousavi Incident Today. An Iranian activist has summarised:

Plainclothes forces on motorcycles surrounded Arts Institute [Mousavi's offices]. As Mousavi was leaving this afternoon, they started chanting anti-Mousavi slogans. (These same people were riding around Arts Institute yesterday too.)

Against advice of his security people, Mousavi got out of his car and walked towards plainclothes and shouted at them, "You are on a mission, do your job; threaten me, beat me, kill me." Mousavi's security detail took him back inside the building.

A Kalameh reporter who was on the scene, without introducing himself, asked a plainclothes officer what they were doing. The officer answered, "We have been ordered to make Mousavi's movements difficult."

1150 GMT: Urgent - Mousavi Detained? First, an apology in that I got story tangled in posting at 0943 GMT: it appears Mir Hossein Mousavi was surrounded in his offices this morning, not yesterday. Unconfirmed reports were that he has been taken away by plainclothes security, but it is now claimed that the security has backed away and Mousavi has left the building safely.

1135 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Interview and "Unity". Amidst yesterday's events, we briefly mentioned Mehdi Karroubi's only "public" appearance, an interview with France's Le Monde. The headline of the interview is "Repression is Not the Solution", but perhaps the most intriguing passage, in the current political climate, is this:

A national reconciliation? The option is good and reasonable, as the "wise men" of the two sides are not opposed. But to get there, prepare the ground. And right now, the conditions are not met: some do not want to give up and want to keep everything for themselves. Repression, in any case, is not the answer either today or tomorrow.

The solution to achieve reconciliation, tolerance, and acceptance of criticism. We must work to restore trust between the people and authorities. Among fundamentalists, some moderates share this view but, unfortunately, they do not have much power. But I know that the Iranian people are a great people, smart and patient, and I am optimistic about the future of this country.

1130 GMT: More Clues on Internal Turmoil. A top EA source has brought us up to date on yesterday's closure of Hayat-e-No newspaper, now reported on a pro-Mousavi website.

The newspaper is considered "reformist" but is owned by Hadi Khamenei, brother of the Supreme Leader. The EA source says the paper has been banned because of a headline yesterday morning that the commemoration of 16 Azar was being suppressed by police force.

1120 GMT: Updates will be scattered and post-16 Azar put off to Wednesday, as we're in the middle of academic duties.

However, we can dangle this prospect before you: we have an exclusive information pointing to a major development in Iranian politics. It involves leading clerics, Hashemi Rafsanjani, and the National Unity Plan. There is a big clue in the 0815 GMT entry on Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi.

0943 GMT: Mousavi Again Prevented from Attending Rally? Mardomak is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi, as on 13 Aban, was blockaded in his offices by plainclothes security officers. In this case, there were about 40 who blocking Mousavi's departure. He allegedly told them, "Kill me, beat me, threaten me."

0815 GMT: Clerical Call for the National Unity Plan? One interesting development that we missed yesterday: Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, interviewed last Thursday, offered the following call for unity:

Wherever there is war, a peace treaty is not suddenly achieved. They should introduce a truce first and then after a while when the tensions settle, they hold negotiations in a calm environment. I believe that a truce should be worked out. If we want to reach unity, there is a strategy for it.

When we talk about unity, we are talking about people who believe in the constitution, leadership, Islam, and the interests of the country. Those who believe in those issues can reach unity. However, the precondition is to create a calm environment and then some people, who are respected by society and are moderate thinkers, should agree on the principles of unity. I do not believe that we have reached the end of the road, there is no deadlock.

I have worked out a few principles but cannot discuss them under the current circumstances. If a calm atmosphere is created and if some people step forward to reach unity, then I will pronounce my views, too. I believe we can reach unity.

I have repeatedly said that there were a few rioters who should be dealt with separately. However, a large number of people formed the majority in the elections and another large number of people the minority. We should create understanding between the two groups. After all they are 13-14 million people who live in this country and the 24-25 million people (referring to pro-Ahmadinejad voters) who live in this country, too. In other countries, figures less than these are cared for and governments negotiate with 2-3 million people.

We should sit together and negotiate and the precondition to that is the creation of a calm atmosphere.

0730 GMT: We're still going through yesterday's events, picking up news and thinking through the significance. The title of this LiveBlog relates to the analysis that we're discussing and debating, hopefully to post later today: what was the extent of the victory in the marches of 16 Azar and what questions does it pose --- for the regime, for prominent opposition figures, and for the Green Wave(s)?

We have two summaries of what happened: from EA correspondent Josh Shahryar, who was involved in the live-blog throughout the day, and from an EA source who collected information from eyewitnesses in Tehran. We've got Set 1 and Set 2 of the best videos of the day.

An EA reader reports this morning on the arrest of student activist Majid Tavakoli in yesterday's protests.

There's a tribute to the work of EA readers from The Wall Street Journal. There's a personal thanks from Scott Lucas via a musical thought. And don't forget to vote in our Iran-related Caption Contest.

Comments

[Kevin Scott]

Amazing coverage as always. However, Scott, I must urge you to introduce new members of your staff before you allow them to take over your blog for two hours on a huge day! About 5 or 6 of us in your D.C. contingent were flipping out because we were sure you had been hacked, possibly by some neocon enemy you made over here! :-0 A not small contributory factor was the fact that one T.N. McLaughlin is a relatively famous historical guy in the District - former chair of the old Board of Commissioners and president of the D.C. Medical Society http://bit.ly/5Zv2Fh - sending our 'prank' antenna way up.

Anyway, glad to see you back! LOL

[ange paris]

First of all, I would like to say "thank you" to Scott for his great job and especially yesterday !

Here you are a" half full" victory link that smells springtime :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB4coh64v7U

[Barry]

Hmmm,with regard to Shiraz's call for unity - there are those in Iran who want to maintain the existing Constitution (but only follow those pieces of it that they want to) , there are those that want to maintain the existing Constitution and abide by it completely and those that want to abandon the existing Constitution completely (and a new flag??)

The first 2 are mostly elites and the 3rd are mostly non-elites . What chances of unity between these 3 groups. ??

Barry

[Ramin]

"Mardomak is reporting that Mir Hossein Mousavi, as on 13 Aban, was blockaded in his offices by plainclothes security officers. In this case, there were about 40 who blocking Mousavi’s departure. He allegedly told them, “Kill me, beat me, threaten me.”

This happened today, not yesterday.

[shangool]

Ramin

what happened in the end.. was he beaten up or what? is he still in his office? anymore news about his wife or Rafsanjani`s daughter?

[Kevin Scott]

This was written by a reliable Iranian who participated in the protests yesterday, and was sent to a few of us "Westerners." I thought it worthwhile enough to post here.

-------------------------------------------

We shouldn’t forget that ordinary people have been scared with all rights to speak up their minds in over 30 years. They need some time and encouraging examples to defeat that and it is exactly what’s happening in Iran since the Election. Iranian people have once again refunded their so long lost self-confidence. People have desperately looking for a change during the last 28-30 years and any attempt for more freedom has been crushed. After the serial arrests/executions of the political opposition in end of 70s and the 80s No opposition worth to mention has excited inside Iran. The reformist movement gave people some hope of improvement and involved the student activists and the students have supported it since the start. It has been the safest way NOT the fastest but again the safest way to implement changes and ideas for the students (and the people) since NOTHING else has been allowed. The reformist movement in Iran is very complex and includes so many ideas and interests, for its survival it can’t deny the “Valihe Faghih” but been pushing the limits since death of Khomeini. The Students are women right movement, human right activists, socialist and etc… Students are probably most radical supporters of Reformist movement and have paid a high price for that. Elderly people who experienced the Rev 79 & Iran – Iraq war are more cynical, most of them didn’t even want to vote the last 3 presidential elections but each election younger has tried to involve them. The reformist movement has helped to regroup and reorganize a solid opposition at the grassroots level in Iran which has grown day by day despite the crackdowns, arrests and many disappointments.
Something has been in the air in Iran the last couple of years and having AN as president has only intensified it. Majority of people united determined to get rid of AN this summer and dared to hope for a better Iran and The rigged election pulled the trigger.

I can’t speak for everyone but now after 5 months fight with the coup I am curtain that majority of the people lead by the students want to have a secularism Iran. Majority of people have desired a secular democracy Iran for a long time but now they (Greens) know that they can achieve it and the way to do it has been through reformist and will be for some more time and anything else would be stopped quit easily & violently by the coup-maker even more violent than now. You can just hear it through the chants and slogans in every protests that things are changing in Iran. Each slogans includes a powerful message to the Coup, the world but mainly to the other people in Iran. Don’t be afraid we can do this.. Velayate Faghih’s time is over. We passed the redline June 2009. No return no surrender.We must just keep fighting patiently until the day... The victory will be ours soon …

[faye]

You can do it, You all knew this is not an easy task and yet you went for it, because it is worth the effort our people deserve better than this. WHERE ARE THE PARENTS OF THESE YOUNG BRAVE KIDS? AREN,t THEY ASHAMED?

[Nelly]

From Onlymehdi at Youtube which claimed to be a video of today protest at Tehran University http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTArBAvNvV4

[TN McLaughlin]

Thank you Nelly for sharing this. We'll incorporate it into our video list from today.

[Adam]

I suspect that the rumors that Mousavi has been arrested are false. That would be an incredibly stupid move by the regime. It makes Mousavi and even more attractive martyr, will provoke much bigger protests, and is guaranteed to bring this crisis to a head. The regime has held back from arresting even Karroubi for fear of provoking a more imminent crisis, so to arrest Mousavi would be doubly stupid.
On the other hand, no dictatorship can maintain a stalemate where its people are openly protesting in the same movement for over 6 months (with no sign of going away) and the regime is having to crackdown harder and harder just to stop the protests from getting even larger. The financial costs alone must be forcing some serious thinking at the top of the regime. So maybe they have done it as a desperation move.
I actually hope that Mousavi has been arrested because this situation NEEDS to be forced to a head. A situation in which hundreds if not thousands of journalists, politicians, and students are being tortured in prison and yet everyday life in the country goes on almost as normal is totally unacceptable. The masses who protested the week after the election need to be re-awoken.

[kevina]

From Jim Sciutto of ABC: http://blogs.abcnews.com/theworldnewser/2009/12/abcs-jim-sciutto-nobel-prize-winner-says-irans-regime-wont-last.html" rel="nofollow">Ebadi says regime "won't last."

Outside the country, but I think it's important anyway.

[kevina]

You little tease, Lucas! ;)

[Nancy]

PressTV reports: "86 Student Day protestors released" Do you know if reliable sources confirm this? http://bit.ly/4IFT0o