Tuesday
Dec082009
Iran 16 Azar Analysis: "Something is Happening"
Tuesday, December 8, 2009 at 20:34 
Earlier today we posted an analysis by our Mr Smith of the significance of 16 Azar and the possibilities for the future. His points are complemented by those made by Masoud at The Newest Deal, who has kindly sent us a copy of the blog:Though impossible to tell with the blanket censorship draped over Iran at present, it appears that the size of yesterday's protests were smaller than what was seen on 13 Aban, and on Qods Day before it. No matter. The demonstrations of 16 Azar signaled a shift -- if not response -- on the part of the Green movement to the tyranny and brutality that the regime has come to represent. The message was clear: there is no turning back. In fact, the Islamic Republic's future has never been more uncertain.
Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context
The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?
As things stand now, this movement is no longer about a stolen election. Truthfully, it hasn't been for quite some time, but that conclusion only became crystalline today. Only four months ago, this was hardly the case. At that time, the Greens represented a peaceful, non-violent movement asking "Where is my vote?" and led by a Prime Minister [Mir Hossein Mousavi] who stressed -- no, urged -- the need to stay true to the Islamic Republic's framework and constitutional structure, not to mention the wisdom and guidance of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.
No longer. Yesterday's demonstrations were organized by a fractal grassroots whose structure is horizontal rather than hierarchical. That is to say, it has no leader. (Incidentally, neither Mousavi, Karoubi, or Khatami apparently took part in yesterday's marches.) These were protests that saw Iranian flags whose white centers were bare, missing the iconic 'Allah' written in form of a red, martyr's tulip. Gone was the silent marching of peaceful demonstrators holding up 'V's' in the air. Instead, pockets of protesters confronted the Basij physically, and at times, overwhelmingly. And protests were not just limited to Tehran, either. Demonstrations have been verified in Mashhad, Shiraz, Rasht, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Arak, Kerman and Najafabad.
Most telling of all, chants of "Death to Khamenei" have now become a demonstration fixture, no longer the sacred red-line that protesters never dared to cross. Indeed, cross they have as his name was cursed repeatedly and as often as Ahmadinejad's yesterday. Only a few months earlier, [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei could have caved in, given up Ahmadinejad as a sacrificial lamb, and saved himself, if only to survive in a weaker capacity. He no longer has the luxury of that option. Through his political ineptitude, the Islamic Republic has itself become illegitimate, and that inevitably means that at the very least, the doctrine of Velayat-e-Faqih must go. The regime has essentially placed itself in an unsustainable dynamic: it insistingly continues to alienate a larger and larger portion of the base from which it derives its legitimacy (the clerical class) while at the same time takes actions against the people that are far too unforgivable to allow for any future possibility of reconciliation, as [Hashemi] Rafsanjani was pushing for in September.
Which makes the timing of Rafsanjani's sudden reappearance the day before the protests all the more significant. In a meeting with students in the city of Mashhad, Rafsanjani addressed criticisms of his recent silence by issuing his strongest and most pointed rebuke of the regime yet. Stating that the demands of his July sermon had gone unheeded, Rafsanjani issued a not-so-thinly veiled and ominous warning: "If the people of Iran want us we to govern them, then we may stay. If not, then we should step aside."
Rafsanjani went on to state that the Basij and Revolutionary Guard should have never stood against the people and confirmed the Green movement's right to protest. Though the finger was not directly pointed and Khamenei's name was never spoken, the message was clear: this crisis is the Supreme Leader's doing, and it is only he who can resolve it. Rafsanjani, it should not be forgotten, is Iran's de facto number-two as well as the head of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body that is assigned with the task of selecting the next Supreme Leader, and if need be, disposing of the current one. His statement -- and indeed, warning to Khamenei -- was essentially a declaration that if the Islamic Republic's constitutional law and structure is going to be discarded, then he will not stand in the way of its inevitable demise.
Which with yesterday's protests should give the Islamic Republic even more cause for concern. Although state television still broadcasts a confident (read: propagandist) self-image, the regime is undoubtedly scared. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the Revolutionary Guards General who was recently appointed the new head of the Basij, apparently even shot Tehran's Traffic Control Chief in the foot when he was told in a meeting last week that it would be "impossible" to neutralize widespread attempts to bring Tehran's traffic to a halt. Incidents such this -- likely one of many occurring behind closed doors -- speaks of the panic and desperation that is surely beginning to settle into the minds of those in power. It has been seen before, some thirty years ago.
Reader Comments (4)
Thank you.
Sir One correction:
The center of Iranian flag (The world Allah) was designed by that traitor Khomeini himself. As per the Swastika was designed by Hitler.
For those who are not a 100% up to date and familiar with their history, Mr Khomeini's family were Sikh immigrants to Bandar Abbas region of Iran. Later Khomeini grew up in Arak and Qom and changed to a Khomeni last name only after becoming an Ayatollah.
The central embalm of the Iranian flag is a ripoff of the Sikh symbol done Khomeini in homage to his family and have no significance (cultural, historical, emotional or that) with Iran. Before the 1979 revolution no one had ever seen this symbol in Iran.
It feels highly liberating to have it ripped out of the center of our flag.
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To many of us the analysis in this thread though welcomed it is no news. Many of us pointed out 4 months ago that protest in Iran had far deeper root than election. Rigged election and regime deplorable handling of people legitimate outcry was the spark that ignited a massive fire that had been dormant for nearly three decades.
Western governments, western media and world community and intellectuals may just be waking up to the realities of life in Iran and they may have just started paying attention to people’s battle cry. But the undeniable truth is what the world finally noted on 16 Azar in 2009 were the sentiments of millions of Iranians many 16 of Azar ago.
Those of us who know the language and its nuances, the culture, and the history tried to tell others it was not about election, not about unity plan, not about any individual leader (clergy or otherwise), it was about the entire system of IR. We tried to point out that many Iranians had made up their minds many 16 Azar ago that what they had for a government was a collection of brutal and corrupt village idiots that did not know the first thing about governing. We tried to point out that people battle cry and chants were nearly three decades old and the difference in 2009 was that they were no longer reciting their chants in the confined of their homes or sharing their displeasure with their trusted friends. We tried to say that the much hated Basiji we see in videos in 2009 did not sprout in 2009. They have been around as stoolies since the formation of a gang calling itself Islamic Republic. If the world now has taken notice of brutality of Basiji or IRG, it does not mean that they were the boy scouts before. The post election events may have exposed the deception, brutality and incompetence of this corrupt regime to the world in 2009 but Iranians have lived with it for 30 years.
Iranians are proud, resilient people with enormous capacity to cope. They coped quietly until they could do no more.
As some of us are still preoccupied with analysis of depth and breadth of uprising or which leader is up and which is down or taking apart goals, objective, mission and plans of Green Democracy Movement, one thing is crystal clear; Iranians need no more data and no more statistical analysis. They would have been in the streets of Iran like an endless sea of humanity on this 16 of Azar if it was not for bullets, or torture and rape in the hands hired assassins of Iran terrorist regime.
Whatever form or path this movement takes it will continue on-track until it reaches its destination, dissolution of failed Islamic Republic, a government of Torture, rape, and murder. Iran civilization precedes Islam and Islamic Republic and rest assure it will succeed both.