The Latest from Iran (13 December): Bubbling Over?

1940 GMT: More Positions on the "Burning of Khomeini": More than 230 members of Parliament have issued a statement strongly condemning the incident, presumably (but not clearly, at least in the Press TV report) criticising the opposition and calling on the judiciary officials to punish those responsible. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has also denounced the act, expressing hope that it would not be repeated.

Iranian Students News Agency have published a series of photos (see inset) of Basij students of Azad University protesting in Jamaran, the neighbourhood where Imam Khomeini lived. Islamic Republic News Agency writes about the sit-in of Basij students at Tehran University.

1935 GMT: We Really Don't Have A Clue. Mehr News tries --- and fails --- to answer our question about President Ahmadinejad's meeting with Ali Larijani and Sadegh Larijani, "What Did They Say?" (1640 GMT): "The subsidy bill, which has become a thorny dispute between the Majlis and the administration, probably featured prominently in the talks. The Judiciary’s investigation of major economic corruption cases was also likely high on the agenda."

1800 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani is the latest clerical supporter of the opposition to condemn the desecration of Imam Khomenei's image and the Government's manipulation of the issue.

1640 GMT: So What Did They Say? Oh, to be a fly on the wall: President Ahmadinejad has met both Ali Larijani, Speaker of Parliament, and Sadegh Larijani, head of Iran's judiciary. No details but atmosphere was cordial enough for an official photograph.

1615 GMT: Reformists Alongside Khomeini. Former President Mohammad Khatami, after a strong denial that the opposition would dishonour Ayatollah Khomeini, has upheld the Imam as a standard for the Green movement, saying that it is the duty of religious people to protest.

1550 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, during all the protests and the furour over a possible showdown with opposition leaders, President Ahmadinejad is doing a spot of diplomatic entertaining. He met a Hamas delegation led by the political director, Khaled Meshaal, and declared, "The government and the people of Iran will always stand by the Palestinian resistance and the Palestinian people. Today Palestine is symbol of the global front of freedom-seekers and militants."

NEW Iran Analysis: Sifting the Propaganda – Government About to Arrest Opposition Leaders?
NEW Latest Videos from Iran's Universities (13 December)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Tehran University Protest & Strike (12 December)
Iran Special: Kermit the Frog Re-Mixes “It’s Not Easy Being Green”
Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?
Iran’s Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “Khamenei in Hejab/We Are All Majids”
Iran: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli “His 16 Azar Speech on Video”
Iran: “The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People”? (with Audio)
The Latest from Iran (12 December): Bubbling Under

1535 GMT: Demoting Rafsanjani. According to Tabnak, Islamic Republic News Agency employees have been directed to use the clerical title "Hojatoleslam" when referring to Hashemi Rafsanjani. "Hojjatoleslam" is lower in rank than "Ayatollah", the previous title for the former President.

1350 GMT: Undaunted? Videos are coming through from protests at Iranian universities. We already have four campuses in the collection we've posted, and more may emerge during the afternoon. At Tehran University, Green demonstrators are facing a counter-protest from Basij students who are declaring a three-day sit-in. Security forces have surrounded the university.

1320 GMT: Revising the Threat Assessment. Mr Smith is walking me through the video of the Supreme Leader's speech, and he has a more ominous reading of this as a warning:

[Khamenei] is quite openly saying that the opposition "shall be wiped out". You can chalk this up as a prelude to any sort of harsh measure against the opposition.

This was a "make my day" speech, and one that quite bluntly asked the opposition leaders to back off and shut up. As a challenge, it ranks with the June 19 speech, if not even more emphatic than that.

To my query, "Is this then an ultimatum to the opposition not to make trouble during Moharram (beginning this Friday?", Mr Smith replies, "I think the gist is, shut up, don't make trouble during Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December)."

1230 GMT: Putting the Threats Together, But....? The Associated Press has picked up on a warning on the website of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, linking the "burning of Khomeini" story to the prospect of arrests: ''The Guard ... won't tolerate any silence or hesitation in the immediate identification, trial and punishment of those carrying out this ugly insult and the agents behind them."

Which still leaves the question of whether the threat will be carried. Reuters is the first "Western" agency to note the Supreme Leader's speech (see 1030 GMT) but misses the passage that we noted --- "keep your calm" --- indicating that drastic action will not take place.

1030 GMT: Wow, We Couldn't Predict This. Speaking this morning, the Supreme Leader declared, "[Our] enemies' groundwork is sedition and our groundwork should be strengthening perception and vision. Some people breached law and encouraged people to stand against regime. As a result,our desperate enemies got hope and insulted our Imam."

Now, are there arrests to follow the rhetoric? Here's a hint from Khamenei that there won't be: "Following insult to Imam Khomeieni, people became angry; but keep your calm, these people are rootless and can't confront [us]."

Instead, the Supreme Leader issued a "Back Off" message to Washington, as well as playing the "foreign intervention" card, "The President of USA declared that each Government that break laws must be accountable, but USA's governement is the biggest lawbreaker in world."

0830 GMT: News this morning is dominated by the rumours of a Government crackdown on the opposition, including the arrest of Green leaders. We have posted an analysis sifting through the propaganda and confusion to assess the likelihood that the regime will make an ultimate move.

Discussion also continues about the immediate background for the latest rumours, the battle over the alleged burning of the image of Imam Khomeini. EA reader Naj offers an analysis of the Government's propaganda strategy on  the blog Neo-Resistance.

Meanwhile, if you want a diversion from the internal tension, there is always the posturing over the nuclear discussions. The US has issued a summary rejection of Iran's proposal, put by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki yesterday, for a "swap" of uranium inside the country: "Iran's proposal does not appear to be consistent with the fair and balanced draft agreement proposed by the International Atomic Energy Agency." The pro forma No does not mean, however, that the discussions have been closed.

Mottaki and the US have also swapped blows over their political power plays in Latin America. After Hillary Clinton's unsubtle warning to Latin American countries not to engage with Iran, the world's top supporter of terrorism, Mottaki took the high ground, "We condemn such attitudes which violate values of the third millennium."

Comments

[ange paris]

Here you are the video of Sazegara dec 13 and his explanation on alleged arrest of opposition's leaders :

http://vodpod.com/watch/2688140-mohsen-sazegara-sunday-22-azar-88-d

[Catherine]

It seems the student protests are still going strong:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeW5EMiwsck

[naj]

Catherine, this is an interestign university; ALL students and faculty are female! Zahra Rahnavard was a dean of AL-Zahra a few years aback but was fired after Ahmadinejad took over.

One of teh protesters, off screen, starts protesting to the person who is video-taping the protest. She asks: "why are you taping them? why are you taping them?"; the camera-person then seems to be interrupted by someone. Then in the background the woman says: "kids cover your faces; cover your faces." in her next shot she is taking long shots of far crowds.

This interaction raises a QUESTION on the ethics of such video reporting. Why not ask people if they like being broadcast across the globe? Could it be that if older generation could trust the wisdom of these post-teenagers, then they would have joined them in the ranks of protesters? This is what I am hearing from IRan though; that this post 16-azar radicalization will lead to alienation of the students.

[Scott Lucas]

Naj,

Just to pick up one of your points: we are in a continuous debate about which videos we post, given the issues around recognition of individuals. I have been trying to screen video to avoid easy recognition but sometimes I do slip up.

S.

[Roe Lassie]

"Demoting Rafsanjani. According to Tabnak, Islamic Republic News Agency employees have been directed to use the clerical title “Hojatoleslam” when referring to Hashemi Rafsanjani. “Hojjatoleslam” is lower in rank than “Ayatollah”, the previous title for the former President."

And so desperation sets in:D

Well I guess when you can steal votes it's no problem to steal a title as well!

[SAM]

PRESIDENT Rafsanjani is doing a spot of diplomatic entertaining?

Has he been promoted?

[kevina]

Well, it seems clear, for now, that no arrests (of Green leadership) are imminent. On Mr. Smith's analysis, isn't it to a point where KH has a believability issue? How many times has he threatened (starting 6/19)? And yet, on we go. So, is this "I REALLY mean it this time!?"

Demoting Raf? Yeah, just poke the biggest elite threat to your power. Brilliant idea, fellas.

[Adam]

Scott, I believe Ahmadinejad met with Hamas and said that, not Rafsanjani

[kevina]

Meanwhile, from Tehran Bureau, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/12/staging-mousavis-arrest.html" rel="nofollow">Dr. Sahimi checks in on the possible arrests.

[hassh]

Sorry but Rafsanjani is in fact a Hojjatoleslam and not an Ayatullah. This is a well known fact. Some western media sources in particular had been incorrectly referring to him as an ayatullah but his official title never included that and his own office never referred to him by that title. Tabnak is simply correcting sloppy reporting.

[kevina]

On Khatami, was his statement on protests in reference to the Khomeini picture or the overall political situation?

[Scott Lucas]

Adam,

As Homer Simpson would say, "D'Oh!"

S.

[naj]

Scott;

This is great to know.

[Empfindliche Seelen « FR]

[...] 2009 — Thomas v. der Osten-Sacken Spricht es nicht Baende, wie empfindlich sie reagieren, wenn mal ein Bild ihres verblichenen Obermackers in Flammen aufgeht, die selben Leute, zu deren Staatsraeson regelhaft das Verbrennen und Fahnen und Hoheitssymbolen [...]

[Samuel]

"1615 GMT: Reformists Alongside Khomeini. Former President Mohammad Khatami, after a strong denial that the opposition would dishonour Ayatollah Khomeini, has upheld the Imam as a standard for the Green movement, saying that it is the duty of religious people to protest."

This is too funny for words. Every day the greenies hug the Ayatollah Khomeini ever closer to their frightened bodies. Next time they'll be marching with huge posters of the Imam.

Once again if President Khatami was a loyal follower of the Imam he would be cutting off his own hands right about now:

http://www.shiatv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=d38b55728a9f56b043d3

[Megan]

So let me see, how do you get promoted from Hojatoleslam to Ayatollah in Islamic Banana Republic? Is it the number of people you kill or order to be killed or is it the number of people you order to be tortured and raped, or is it the number of 12 years old girls you rape/ wed, or is it the amount of money you steel, or is the number of lies you tell or is it all of the above?

I guess if in addition to the above you add mass murder to your resume, you get promoted to Imam. And a nation will be kept in shackles for another 30 years for burning your picture. Hitler is wondering why the heck he picked Germany instead of Iran.

[Somebody]

@ Megan

I don't understand why you have to be so insulting to such a large group of people. What does that help exactly? Not every Ayatollah in Iran is the same. You've been following Iran long enough to know about people like Saanei, Bayat-Zanjani and Montazeri. I'm an atheist but I wouldn't go around talking trash like this about the clergy of any religion.

Aside from betraying your apparently deep-seated bigotry, your post is also obviously bound to alienate Shiites, some of whom still have a respect for their clerical system (which as you know pre-dates Khomeini and the Islamic revolution). Why would you want to do that?

Certainly your hatred for our favourite troll isn't so great that you'd put aside good sense in order to attack him?

[Megan]

Somebody,

I asked you the other day and I ask you again please stop lecturing me.

[Somebody]

Megan, you do realize this is a comment board, don't you? You can't expect to write things here without soliciting written responses.