Iran: “The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People”? (with Audio)
Posted by Scott Lucas in Middle East & Iran
UPDATE 1225 GMT: The prominent Iranian exile, Mohsen Sazegara, has declared in a video message that the claimed letter and audio will be significant in assuring people that Iranian military forces are with them.
UPDATE 0845 GMT: The claimed audio of the announcement of the eight regiments has now been posted.
The letter, on the reformist website Gooya, appeared last evening: “The Army is the Refuge of the People”. This morning it is still causing excitement and uncertainty: is a section of the Iranian army and air force preparing to stand against the Government and “with the Iranian people” if the regime’s violence continues?
Translation of the letter, purportedly signed by eight military units, from HomyLafayette:
In the name of pure God (NB Instead of the Arabic Allah, the word Yazdan is used. Yazdan is derived from the ancient Iranian language of Pahlavi. This may indicate that the author(s) of the statement are more patriotic than religious. It may also indicate that the author(s) want to target military personnel who are more patriotic than religious.)
The military is the refuge of the nation
In the years of the Sacred Defense (NB The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988) when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we defended this land, we were in reality defending the honor and dignity and lives and possessions of the Iranian people. The country is precious because the Iranian nation is precious. The weapons of the Revolutionary Guards and the military must be employed in the service of this nation and the lives [of their servicemen] should be sacrificed for the people of Iran. In the days when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we were giving our lives for this nation, we never imagined that a day would come when a group of Guardsmen, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority of the true and devoted personnel of the Revolutionary Guards, would use the might of their weapons against this nation.The military considers itself the refuge of the nation and has never submitted to the demands of politicians to oppress the people. It has remained faithful to its vow to not interfere in politics, but it cannot remain silent while its countrymen are persecuted and violated. For this reason, to those individuals who have been imposed on the Revolutionary Guards and who are engaged in aggression and tyranny against the lives and dignity and honor of the Iranian people and who, more than anyone, have betrayed the blood of the martyrs of our country’s armed forces, whether it be the Revolutionary Guards or the military, we issue a serious warning that if they do not change course, they will be faced with the reaction of the military’s selfless men. The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor.
[signed]
- A group of pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Havanirooz)
- A group of commanders and personnel of the 33rd artillery division of Isfahan
- A group of pilots and servicemen of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- The Shahid Sattari University of the the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the command staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the support training center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army
- A group of the professors and officials of the Imam Ali University for officers
- A group of the personnel and officials of the command center of the military
EA sources (and our readers, who picked up on the story several hours ago) have noted that 36 military generals 24 military officers were reportedly arrested in July for planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani’s Friday Prayer speech in full military uniform, showing solidarity with demonstrators.
None of the regiments is Revolutionary Guard, and this morning the question is large: how much support do these eight regiments have in the rest of the Army and Air Force?
Entries (RSS)
Scott, based on the information above, what do you think the chances are about a rivalry and a potential eventual struggle between these two entities, considering that the Sepah now has unlimited funds and in control, while the Army is being starved financially ? I think in this analysis you can perhaps come up with an hypothesis about the authenticity of letter. As you know in the military intelligence and counterintelligence world you never have access to documents and have the ability to deduct their authenticity until years later. This is even true in this country, let alone Iran. Proof of 1953 CIA coup by the US was not available till years later after the documents were released to the public.
Mark,
I think you put an interesting question which I need time to consider. While I think personalities play a part here, the most challenging possibility in your analysis is, I think, the relative shift in power between Sepah and Army. No doubt this has caused resentments and rivalries but do these extend to the point of an open fight, as opposed to behind-doors manoeuvres?
I would add an unknowable to this, in short, the catalyst of the June 2009 political environment. It has been alleged by activists that a large number of Army forces have sympathies for Green movement. Now, was the arrest of the 15-24 officers in mid-July (for daring to wear uniform to Friday Prayers of Rafsanjani) more than a fleeting symptom of this and, if so, did the sympathies survive efforts to crush them?
No answers, I’m afraid, only more questions. But I do think that, even if letter is not authentic, one factor may be emerging: there is a fatigue amongst some in security forces about having to keep moving against “the people” because it is now apparent that there is no end to this contest and thus use of force.
S.
Scott,
Fair enough. I would also like to point out that what we are seeing in Iran today is a struggle which started in the late nineties. This is really no just about the election. This is a power struggle between reformists and the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad is just a pawn. When Khamanei saw that he was about to loose again to the forces of reform he and his supporters in the Sepah resorted to the coup. Khamanei handpicked Ahamadinejad to be the president in the 2004 elections as well. And yes there was fraud then too and that is how they won it the first time too. Both Rafsanjani and Karoubi went public with fraud allegations then however they backed down at that point, something they are unwilling to do this time around. So as you use this backdrop and extrapolate from these data points along with the well documented IRGC and the Army rivalry and jockeying, I think it is fair to assume that even if letter was fake you will most likely see a real one very soon.
Kevina posted a link to this very interesting post on MikVerbrugge’s blog on the ‘latest from iran’ comment board:
Link: http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/280185744/from-the-grapevine-soldiers-talk
From The Grapevine : Soldiers talk.
After the announcement by some people in Artesh that they were fed up with the situation, and disgusted with IRGC, here are several soldiers’ reactions :
Soldier : “250,000 of the 350,000 Artesh soldiers are drafted soldiers doing our national service, all below the age of 25. Guess whose side we’re on?”
Air Force Soldier : “I don’t know about that announcement but I can tell you 95% of Artesh Air Force is Green.”
Ex-Soldier : “I left [batallion] 3 months ago. No job & no prospects. I wanted to study at Uni using armed forces contigent. No way. Only if you are a Basiji or IRGC, or best, you are a Basiji whose dad is with IRGC do you get your scholarship at application, get your degree in 1 month, your post-grad in 3, PhD in 6 & go on becoming the president or minister or high-ranked Guards commander. My life is sadly without prospects.”
Soldier : “I’m exiled to some God forbidden place at the border with Azerbaijan. They send us here to rot. Only good thing is that all comrades here share same fate, so [we support each other].”
Soldier : “Brother, who cares [if the announcement is real]? It’s the content that counts & it’s 100% accurate. We’ve had it.”
IRGC Soldier : “Our lion Ali Fazli has been removed. He was the last of pure & loyal high commanders left, who actually served in war. All those remaining are, like Ahmadinejad, never been to war. He’s got a decorative desk job under Taeb. Isn’t it a shame? There are no commanders left who are respected by the body of Sepah, which is still made up of pure & loyal brothers serving their country. With Fazli gone and new commanders in, they risk our uprising soon. By the way : Please tell everyone out there that we weren’t involved in crushing protests.”
It is also worth noting that it had been reported that in both Khatami elections more than %70 of the Sepah personnel ( I am not talking about the regular Army but IRGC) had voted for Khatami.
@mark
that was 12 years ago. many of them have retired now. we don’t know the exact percentage right now.
@megan & AZ
what you said about division in reformists only works if they BELIEVE it was student’s job. they officially announced they didn’t. so no divide and conquer.
actually it backfired, greens had demonstration in Tehran university today in favor of khomeini and they are planning for a public one as countermeasure.
http://www.mowjcamp.org/article/id/73583
http://www.mowjcamp.org/article/id/73624
http://www.mowjcamp.org/article/id/73608
(students shouting: “khomeini, where are you? mousavi has become lonely!” , as you all know, khomeini always backed up mousavi against khamenei.)
the movement against dictatorship is very well unified and they are not tricked that easily, considering their experience with the Liar! I haven’t seen any serious branching inside the movement after election, even though they fought a lot before election. they know what’s at stake and they know what’s gonna happen. top reformist parties will not line up against people even if people really burn khomeini’s pic.
As I said before, it was supposed to be a set up. today kaleme announced that they are using burning picture as an excuse to go after Mousavi.
http://www.kaleme.org/1388/09/21/klm-5454
kaleme is warning about an incident that will take place the next few days and asked people to be careful and inform each other.
[Duplicate comment]
Mark,
For better or worse, I tend to look at issues as crises within systems, and I think what you point out in this comment is that there have been serious issues about the system in the Islamic Republic evolving over years rather than months.
S.
Scott,
Yes. Not sure if you are following the latest rumors. Lots of chatter on the possibility of a new coup d’etat. There are rumors that a new wave of arrests have been under plan and that the Army and IRGC have been put on high alert and Army has been issued orders to stay inside their barracks. Apparently this order. Rumors have it that this order was given on 20th of Azar. If true then this explains the timing of the letter from the Army. Stay tuned, next 12-24 hours is going to be very interesting. I would not be surprised if there is fighting between different armed factions if the regime goes ahead with the second coup d’etat.
People,
CHIL OUT! You are just feeding the IRGC’s line of propaganda!
This is not the first time they spread rumors of an “imaginary” clash to tighten their grips on power.
I find it disturbing that how a rumor translated by homylafayette is spinning out of control on this “supposedly” Iran-informed blog!
Naj,
Why do you think this is a rumor ? Can you share with us ? You have a direct line to IRGC ?
G’day Mark
Talking about rumours – here is another interesting one :)
http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1658
Distractions! Distractions! Anything to try to take people’s minds away from the main game! Probably a load of rubbish – but something that they would possibly be silly enough to try.
Barry
“This is not the first time they spread rumors of an “imaginary” clash to tighten their grips on power.”
nah, spreading rumours of imaginary clashes is self-defeating for the government. Rumours of clashes (imaginary or not), can quickly lead to more real clashes. The actual propaganda line is that there are no clashes. The whole military is in line, and if you disagree you are alone and they will crush you. So, if these clashes are indeed imaginary, than these rumours are definitely being spread by opposers of the regime.
Hi Somebody
You are probably right .
But I did see another rumour today that I have not repeated here — something about a goat??? :)
Barry
Naj,
I appreciate the caution. The updates are reporting the rumours but maintaining the caution that there is no substantial action at this point. At the same time, the rumour of Mousavi’s arrest was not sparked by a blogger (HomyLafayette) but by Mousavi’s own website Kalemeh.
S.
Scott,
I know. The rumor of the “army letter” is spread by the regime.
Mark asks why?
First is the opening of the letter; its starts in the name of “yazdan”; yazdan is the persian word for God; it is used only by ultra-nationalists who live in exile and consider Islam an imported Arab tradition. The Iranian army is not an entity separate from the IRGC. The entire army in Iran is under control of the supreme leader. It is the supreme leader who selects all generals. The army is run by highly Islamic individuals. In Iran there is such a thing called “gozinesh”, this means if you are to get a job, especially a high profile one, thorough investigation will be done to ensure your ideological alignment. To think the army will issue a statement starting with Yazdan automatically pushes it into the “propaganda” line. This gives the coup d’etat militia and IRGC the “excuse” to eliminate the SUPPOSEDLY “non-islamic” and “american-Iranian” sources of “conspiracy” (they call that fetneh). This kind of a “rumor” ALSO gauges the enthusiasm of the foreigners; and then the signs of foreign enthusiasm will be used to further feed the “legitimacy” of crackdowns inside Iran.
By issuing this letter from a “supposed” renegade military body aiming at mutiny, the IRGC is creating the condition that allows them put the country in full military alert in the name of preventing a “coup detat by the corrupt army personelle who are so unislamic that they use word Yazdan instead of allah”.
I invite you to visit my latest post about the motivations behind the khomeini-picture burning; to gain a little insight into the dynamics of the chess game Ahmadinejad’s playing.
Somebody,
Actually you are not correct. The official line has since last week changed to “there are real clashes”, and the evidence for it was broadcast on the IRIB, when they showed picures of Khomeni burning, and then cutting those images with images of the 16-azar student protests and anti-regime chants.
Moreover, Larijani came out last week to condemn the demonization of Hashemi.
Moreover, the general prosecutor has been making provocative statements about necessity of arresting leaders of Fetneh.
And, recently another pro-government official has stated that “we know that the university did not vote of Ahmadinejad and that the situation on the university campuses are inflamed and not ordinary”
Naj,
My apologies for not noting your post earlier and its perspective on the controversy — I will remedy this in our updates this morning.
S.
Megan,
Thanks- since you’re the third person to report problems I’m going to disable to plugin for the time being. Unfortunately that means nobody will be able to edit comments after posting, but at least it will avoid confusion/ frustration.
Hi Naj,
I salute your stand on this and I fully agree that if you add up all the small elements it smells rotten. This is either a letter from the INSIDE or a Group of individuals (or Opposition) from outside Iran.
I feel we all need to be carfull with these sorta news. Allow your selves a few days to see if the news gets confirmed and also to fully understand if the letter is not geniune then who is the responsible party and what is its purpose.
Unfortunatly we are all so desperate for a glimpse of hope that we are wanting to believe everything. But if you look at the letter objectively and look at all the details then at best one has to admit that it smells rotten.
To add to Mike’s post: if you put up a comment and notice a mistake, just let us know in a subsequent comment or an e-mail. We’ll carry out the edit as soon as possible.
S.
none,
Another angle that Naj brought up was the use of a “false flag.” One could see the regime putting out this document to give the reform movement a sense of false confidence. Thus when the next protests come protestors will be more emboldened and thus more reckless possibly violent. They can then use this as a pretext to violently crush the movement with the hopes of ending it. It’s sort of like an army sending out a skirmish party to draw out the main forces then hit them once exposed with their full might. The draw back in a political arena is the result is not as predictable. It is so simply because, unlike a military conflict, they can’t kill everyone. It would buy them some empty streets in the short term but long term it would only raise the possibility they will fall. As we all know totalitarian regimes are not good planners but instead often fixate on the immediate. Time will tell.
Thx
Bill
@Afshin,
Yes, I usually sleep on such outlandish news; and then publish them *only* if I can put them in context. But, blogging and twittering and facebooking has also a little “Reward” mechanism built into it; it lures one to jump quickly on things to get cited (I am not suggesting this about this particular blog, Enduring America; just speaking in general even about myself, about Balatarin and etc.) But if I MAY be frank, I can never understand why people who are not Iranian would be eager for its regime to fall! Truth is, the Iranian regime is only a peril to Iranians themselves. I reject the notion of “Iran being the biggest terrorist exporter of the world.” I think Iranian terror doesn’t come close to American and Israeli ones, which are conducted with UN resolutions; or even in defiance of UN resolutions, without penalty or sanctions. From non-Iranian blogs, I expect to see an active engagement of THEIR OWN countrymen about how Iran’s politics interacts with their interest. This is the kind of solidarity I seek from non-Iranians; to not step ahead of Iranians INSIDE IRAN, in zeal for regime change or democracy.
Iran is a COMPLEX society; news do not tell all of the story.
Naj,
You clarified quite a bit wit your last post. The news was first published by gooya which is a fairly reputable site, I don’t know who you are, but please let people know. Who are you ? We have read gooya for 12 years or so and so far they have been very accurate on tons of thing that they post. Mohsen Sazagara has also talked about this letter twice now. He is well informed and so far he has been right on the money with everything since June. Your Yazdan point is weak. I spent 7 years in Iran and I can tell you lots of people use the term Yazdan or Khoda when they want to it to be known that they are not hezollahis. You had never posted here before till last night which makes this even a more interesting conversation. As for Israeli or American Terror, that is besides a point. Let’s talk about Iranian terror. What Israel or America is irrelevant and no excuse. Last time I checked Israelis and Americans were not raping, torturing and imprisoning young Iranians. So, I think it is very clear where you stand. So why are you here ?
Naj,
BTW if you like Chess, I invite you to watch the game Rafsanjani is playing.
And the Iranian Army is an entity completely different than Sepah. Yet again you are dead wrong. Please be factual.
Naj,
What is your blog ? can you share that with us ?
http://iranfacts.blogspot.com
You could have reached my blog by clicking on my name.
Wow Mark, you are quite jumpy! Living in Iran for 7 years has made you an Iranian expert?!
@Bill,
Way too far fetched and makes no strategic sense at all. For the regime to put out this letter so it can use that as an excuse to further clamp down ? This is the most absurd argument ever. The regime does not need any more reasons to clamp down. They have enough. What the hell is it they have been doing for the last six months. You think the regime needs more excuses ? As for the letter, the last thing a regime which is imploding and cracking from inside wants to do is to portray that it is not in control if it’s armed forces. This over complicated analysis ( I am using the term analysis loosely here, more like a paranoid attack of a highly schizophrenic mind looking at an simple event) is way off. Either the letter is a complete hoax which is possible but again several fairly reputable site and people have talked about it and released it, or it was actually written by some officers in the army. Occam’s razor. The simplest explanation is typically the best.
Naj,
Clearly you claim to be the expert and the lecturer here and drawing lines on who should or should not say what to whom and when in what context. I was born in Iran, left when I was 22 after the revolution, and yes also did military service in the Iranian Army in the Iran-Iraq war as an artillery scout. Went back and lived their recently for seven years. I simply mentioned that so it can put things in perspective. Had never heard of your blog. I will check it out. The more the better.
Naj,
Great blog, will enjoy it, thank you for mentioning it.
Scott,
You guys might want to look into this. Again, if you guys as an organization want to somewhat give analysis, it is good to look at these data points. General Ali Fazli, and IRGC general and commander of the Sepah forces in Tehran seems to have been relieved from his duty. You guys can do your own research. He was quoted by the Iranian news agencies as saying that on 16 of Azar the Sepah will give flowers to the students. He was moved under Mr Taeb two days after 16th of Azar. He no longer has operational duties. There were rumors back in June that he had declined to have forces directly under his command to take part in the crack down. He is very popular within the guard and was a war hero.
Mark,
I had picked up on the rumour that Fazli had been replaced but have been unable to confirm. Any info welcomed….
S.
Mark, yes I heard that about Fazli too. I have to admit that the Persian press these days is not only cryptic, but also very brief. I am going to wait and watch what pattern emerges; it seems very fuzzy to me at the moment–and this may very well be a camouflage.
Just to clarify; I am not lecturing anyone; I am just cautioning people who seem to care about Iran that their good intentions may in fact harm the movement inside Iran. I am happy to know you are Iranian; because only an Iranian can know how things are never really how they look :)
That military statement scared the shit out of me because yes I saw it on gooya news too; and yes I trusted them too, and no I am sure gooya did not fabricate it. But, I also recognized that such a statement would turn into an ace in the hand of the fascists to further militarize the situation and start the bloodbath. I have no doubt that many in the IRGC and the army are quite dissatisfied with what is happening; but these people are no holding key positions of power. And if they do, they find themselves more useful by “keeping the enemy closer”.
Let’s remember what army did in the 1979 revolution: they never opened fire on their commanders and on the shah’s forces; they only turned their weapons away from the people and refused to shoot. For the army to declare open war on the fascists will drag the country into civil war–and no one wit the slightest care fro Iran will allow this messianic dream of Ahmadinejad come true. (I am sure many of the “homafaran” who opened the weapon vaults to revolutionary people in 1979 lived or died regretting to have let arms fall in the hands of zealous revolutionaries …)
You remember perfectly, The Army did not crack till Homafaran ( Air Force Cadets) literally joined the revolutionary forces. I think that it is again highly plausible that this could happen again, no exactly but similar. It is hard to say what is going on with Fazli but looking at the situation at hand and the level of censorship as the disinformation coming out of the Iranian new outlets, I think they way to decipher is to look at patterns which you clearly and correctly state. In fascist regimes the government will not directly kill or attack popular military figures in the open. When Hitler found out about Rommel’s position and anti-Hitler feelings they did not arrest him, they told him that if he did not commit suicide they would kill him and his wife and children. He opted to take the pill and spare his family. These things are possible. We don’t know what has been done to Fazli and behind the scenes. They could be holding him and just using his name, or ask him to say certain things or else…..
1. Rumors first emerged about him being not on the same page with respect to crack down back in June.
2. There was silence for about 4 weeks without any news or word or statement from him.
3. He appeared about 4 weeks later denying the initial rumors ( 4 weeks is a long time to wait to deny a serious charge)
4. He was quoted by official news agencies in Iran that the Sepah would give flowers to the students and loves and supports students
5. There was a shuffle and now he reports directly to Taeb.
6. It is rumored that he no longer has any operational duty but this is hard to verify under the current circumstances
7. He is a very popular commander in the Sepah and a war hero.
So one would need to deduct and reason and extrapolate and detect a pattern. The pattern clearly states that there must be some disconnect between him and the regime.
Iran is a very complex country indeed and Iranians in general are extremely non-linear thinkers ( we culturally are thought and trained to be as we grow up due to our cultural) . Non-linear thinking is very powerful could unfortunately lead to over analyzing simple patterns. All of this news is all very murky indeed.
From FB, I did not write this
Following 16 Azar (7 Dec Students Day) protests in Iran, various news are circulating around iranian websites and media. These news focus around:
1) burning of Khomeini’s poster during the demonstrations and widespread propaganda by the iranian regime against this action. Some claim that such action was initiated by regime elements themselves in order to justify upcoming hard measures by the regime against the green movement
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1eMN8KocLs
2) presumed announcement of a number of army commanders warning to join the people in case of further brutality against protestors exterted by the revolutionary guards.
http://www.ismanews.com/?p=847
3) consipiracy against the opposition leaders and planning of their arrest during presumed meeting held yesterday between leaders of the regime inside “Beit Rahbari” (residence of the Leadership of Iran)
http://www.facebook.com/notes.php?id=100000143192380
4) army, revolutionary guards and all armed forces ordered to go on maximum alert since friday 15 dec. The extent of such security measure has been compared to that applied during war time and in case of foreign invasion of the country.
http://www.ismanews.com/?p=905
According to Mohsen Makhmalbaf iranian activist and film maker, 16 Azar demonstrations has caused a crack among regime leaders regarding their strategy. According to his sources, on one side Ahmadinejad, Mojtaba Khamenei (leaders son), Jafari etc are insisting to take harder measures against the protests by carrying out a sort of a military coup including the arrest of the leaders of the Green movement and and taking over of country’s situation by the Revolutionary Guards.
This group warn that considering the trend of protests, there is serious risk of regime overthrow during next protests scheduled for Moharam period (starting on 25 dec for a month or so)
On the other, Khamenei itself, other revolutionary guard members fear that if they should arrest Mousavi he will become the symbol of Imam Hossein and Khamenei will become the symbol of Yazid and it will be even more difficult to control peoples rage during the upcoming Moharam ceremonies*.
http://hiss.zzl.org/?p=3534
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mourning_of_Muharram
ISMA news agency interpretation on recents events is that the the burning of Khomeini’s poster has been an initiative of the regime itself to set the ground for and justify the arrest of oppostion leaders. According to ISMA sources some clergies lead by Mesbah have managed to convince the leadership to allow Revolutionary Guards to take total control over the situation in order to resolve all problems and restore the situation. According to ISMA, news on the military coup against the people has been also comunicated to top army commanders ordering them to remain on maximum alert and keep their operative forces inside their headquarters so as to minimize the risk of army joining the people during the coup. Following this, army commanders issued the statement (point 2 above) warning that in case of coup and brutality against people, they would be joining the protestors.
http://www.ismanews.com/?p=905
Following 16 Azar (7 Dec Students Day) protests in Iran, various news are circulating around iranian websites and media. These news focus around:
1) burning of Khomeini’s poster during the demonstrations and widespread propaganda by the iranian regime against this action. Some claim that such action was initiated by regime elements themselves in order to justify upcoming hard measures by the regime against the green movement
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1eMN8KocLs
2) presumed announcement of a number of army commanders warning to join the people in case of further brutality against protestors exterted by the revolutionary guards.
http://www.ismanews.com/?p=847
3) consipiracy against the opposition leaders and planning of their arrest during presumed meeting held yesterday between leaders of the regime inside “Beit Rahbari” (residence of the Leadership of Iran)
http://www.facebook.com/notes.php?id=100000143192380
4) army, revolutionary guards and all armed forces ordered to go on maximum alert since friday 15 dec. The extent of such security measure has been compared to that applied during war time and in case of foreign invasion of the country.
http://www.ismanews.com/?p=905
According to Mohsen Makhmalbaf iranian activist and film maker, 16 Azar demonstrations has caused a crack among regime leaders regarding their strategy. According to his sources, on one side Ahmadinejad, Mojtaba Khamenei (leaders son), Jafari etc are insisting to take harder measures against the protests by carrying out a sort of a military coup including the arrest of the leaders of the Green movement and and taking over of country’s situation by the Revolutionary Guards.
This group warn that considering the trend of protests, there is serious risk of regime overthrow during next protests scheduled for Moharam period (starting on 25 dec for a month or so)
On the other, Khamenei itself, other revolutionary guard members fear that if they should arrest Mousavi he will become the symbol of Imam Hossein and Khamenei will become the symbol of Yazid and it will be even more difficult to control peoples rage during the upcoming Moharam ceremonies*.
http://hiss.zzl.org/?p=3534
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mourning_of_Muharram
ISMA news agency interpretation on recents events is that the the burning of Khomeini’s poster has been an initiative of the regime itself to set the ground for and justify the arrest of oppostion leaders. According to ISMA sources some clergies lead by Mesbah have managed to convince the leadership to allow Revolutionary Guards to take total control over the situation in order to resolve all problems and restore the situation. According to ISMA, news on the military coup against the people has been also comunicated to top army commanders ordering them to remain on maximum alert and keep their operative forces inside their headquarters so as to minimize the risk of army joining the people during the coup. Following this, army commanders issued the statement (point 2 above) warning that in case of coup and brutality against people, they would be joining the protestors.
http://www.ismanews.com/?p=905
[...] More here. The letter first appeared on the Iranian reformist website Gooya. As you can see in the [...]
Mark,
It was just a thought on my part. The reality is that it does not matter what you or think but only what the regime does. The issue then is we don’t know what the regime thinks thus we over analyze this situation as you mentioned. While my idea may be far fetched a precedance was set by the buring of the Khomeini picture. As for an excuse it was in reference to “much more brutality.” Yes it is brutal now but the regime knows it didn’t work. When they start to feel they have nothing to lose they are going to try all kinds of “far out there” strategies. As we have all seen the regime has been quite active trying to provoke more radical edges of the Green Movement. They are desperate to try to justify their actions! Taking that all into account I personally don’t believe it is to far fetched for them to have authored this document. However, again it is just speculation and as indicated I might be over analyzing the situation. Time will tell.
Thx
Bill
“The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor.”
Even if this is real, isn’t this sentence a cause for concern? Does the United States really want a military coup in Iran that would lead to a nationalistic military dictatorship? Especially if said nationalistic military dictatorship continues on the path of nuclear energy?
^@Anon:
1. Ultimately, it’s THEIR (Iranians) business, not ours.
2. Depends. Does the Army step in as a “last resort,” just long enough to arrest/exile KH & AN and crew, then returning governance to civilian control shortly thereafter, or do they seize and RETAIN power?