Friday
Dec112009
Iran: "The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People"? (with Audio)
Friday, December 11, 2009 at 12:37 
UPDATE 1225 GMT: The prominent Iranian exile, Mohsen Sazegara, has declared in a video message that the claimed letter and audio will be significant in assuring people that Iranian military forces are with them.UPDATE 0845 GMT: The claimed audio of the announcement of the eight regiments has now been posted.
The letter, on the reformist website Gooya, appeared last evening: "The Army is the Refuge of the People". This morning it is still causing excitement and uncertainty: is a section of the Iranian army and air force preparing to stand against the Government and "with the Iranian people" if the regime's violence continues?
Translation of the letter, purportedly signed by eight military units, from HomyLafayette:
In the name of pure God (NB Instead of the Arabic Allah, the word Yazdan is used. Yazdan is derived from the ancient Iranian language of Pahlavi. This may indicate that the author(s) of the statement are more patriotic than religious. It may also indicate that the author(s) want to target military personnel who are more patriotic than religious.)
The military is the refuge of the nation
In the years of the Sacred Defense (NB The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988) when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we defended this land, we were in reality defending the honor and dignity and lives and possessions of the Iranian people. The country is precious because the Iranian nation is precious. The weapons of the Revolutionary Guards and the military must be employed in the service of this nation and the lives [of their servicemen] should be sacrificed for the people of Iran. In the days when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we were giving our lives for this nation, we never imagined that a day would come when a group of Guardsmen, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority of the true and devoted personnel of the Revolutionary Guards, would use the might of their weapons against this nation.
The military considers itself the refuge of the nation and has never submitted to the demands of politicians to oppress the people. It has remained faithful to its vow to not interfere in politics, but it cannot remain silent while its countrymen are persecuted and violated. For this reason, to those individuals who have been imposed on the Revolutionary Guards and who are engaged in aggression and tyranny against the lives and dignity and honor of the Iranian people and who, more than anyone, have betrayed the blood of the martyrs of our country's armed forces, whether it be the Revolutionary Guards or the military, we issue a serious warning that if they do not change course, they will be faced with the reaction of the military's selfless men. The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor.
[signed]
- A group of pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Havanirooz)
- A group of commanders and personnel of the 33rd artillery division of Isfahan
- A group of pilots and servicemen of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- The Shahid Sattari University of the the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the command staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the support training center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army
- A group of the professors and officials of the Imam Ali University for officers
- A group of the personnel and officials of the command center of the military
EA sources (and our readers, who picked up on the story several hours ago) have noted that 36 military generals 24 military officers were reportedly arrested in July for planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday Prayer speech in full military uniform, showing solidarity with demonstrators.
None of the regiments is Revolutionary Guard, and this morning the question is large: how much support do these eight regiments have in the rest of the Army and Air Force?
Reader Comments (141)
a bit about Jafari commander of the Sepah who was appointed in 2007
Jafari, born in 1957, was a brigadier-general in the IRGC who now holds the rank of major general. He fought in the 1980-88 war with Iraq, initially as a member of the Basij volunteer militia before rising through the IRGC ranks.
Jafari spent nearly 15 years (from 1991-92 to 2005) as commander of the IRGC land forces, Iranian media have reported, before being appointed as head of a strategic research center to map out new defensive and military strategies in response to what Iran's leadership has seen as evolving threats in the Middle East.
Jafari reportedly developed many of his ideas and experiences on unconventional, or "asymmetrical," warfare -- which officials have not spelled out in detail -- at the research center. In 1999, he was among 24 IRGC commanders who wrote to President Mohammad Khatami, effectively warning him at a time of public unrest in Tehran that Khatami's liberalizing policies were threatening the Iranian leadership, Radio Farda reported on September 2.
A bit about Atollah Salehi, commander of the regular Iranian Army
General Ataollah Salehi (Persian: سرلشکر عطاالله صالحی) is the current commander-in-chief of the Iranian Army since 2005[1][2]. He graduated before the Islamic Revolution from the Iranian Army's military academy in 1971 with the rank of Artillery Second Lieutenant of the Army's Ground Forces.
He has the direct operational command authority over the commanders of Iranian Army's Ground Forces, Air Force and Navy.
The Iranian Army has published an article on the 8th of February 2009, heavily criticizing the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (IRGC) and Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) for falsification of the facts about the Iran–Iraq War in favor of the IRGC and ignoring the role of the Iranian Army in the war[3].
General Salehi as the commander-in-chief of the Army along with other high ranking generals of the Army signed this article in an extremely shocking action for the IRGC and the top level officials of the Iranian regime. Because it was the very first time in the Islamic Republic's history that an official organisation has dared to publicly criticize the IRGC, as the IRGC is considered a holy organisation and the main military force to harass and crush the Islamic Revolution's opposition forces.
This action of General Salehi is believed to aim at reconstruction of the Army's authority which has been sharply declined after the Islamic Revolution.
Scott, based on the information above, what do you think the chances are about a rivalry and a potential eventual struggle between these two entities, considering that the Sepah now has unlimited funds and in control, while the Army is being starved financially ? I think in this analysis you can perhaps come up with an hypothesis about the authenticity of letter. As you know in the military intelligence and counterintelligence world you never have access to documents and have the ability to deduct their authenticity until years later. This is even true in this country, let alone Iran. Proof of 1953 CIA coup by the US was not available till years later after the documents were released to the public.
Mark,
I think you put an interesting question which I need time to consider. While I think personalities play a part here, the most challenging possibility in your analysis is, I think, the relative shift in power between Sepah and Army. No doubt this has caused resentments and rivalries but do these extend to the point of an open fight, as opposed to behind-doors manoeuvres?
I would add an unknowable to this, in short, the catalyst of the June 2009 political environment. It has been alleged by activists that a large number of Army forces have sympathies for Green movement. Now, was the arrest of the 15-24 officers in mid-July (for daring to wear uniform to Friday Prayers of Rafsanjani) more than a fleeting symptom of this and, if so, did the sympathies survive efforts to crush them?
No answers, I'm afraid, only more questions. But I do think that, even if letter is not authentic, one factor may be emerging: there is a fatigue amongst some in security forces about having to keep moving against "the people" because it is now apparent that there is no end to this contest and thus use of force.
S.
Scott,
Fair enough. I would also like to point out that what we are seeing in Iran today is a struggle which started in the late nineties. This is really no just about the election. This is a power struggle between reformists and the Supreme Leader. Ahmadinejad is just a pawn. When Khamanei saw that he was about to loose again to the forces of reform he and his supporters in the Sepah resorted to the coup. Khamanei handpicked Ahamadinejad to be the president in the 2004 elections as well. And yes there was fraud then too and that is how they won it the first time too. Both Rafsanjani and Karoubi went public with fraud allegations then however they backed down at that point, something they are unwilling to do this time around. So as you use this backdrop and extrapolate from these data points along with the well documented IRGC and the Army rivalry and jockeying, I think it is fair to assume that even if letter was fake you will most likely see a real one very soon.
Kevina posted a link to this very interesting post on MikVerbrugge's blog on the 'latest from iran' comment board:
Link: http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/280185744/from-the-grapevine-soldiers-talk
From The Grapevine : Soldiers talk.
After the announcement by some people in Artesh that they were fed up with the situation, and disgusted with IRGC, here are several soldiers’ reactions :
Soldier : “250,000 of the 350,000 Artesh soldiers are drafted soldiers doing our national service, all below the age of 25. Guess whose side we’re on?”
Air Force Soldier : “I don’t know about that announcement but I can tell you 95% of Artesh Air Force is Green.”
Ex-Soldier : “I left [batallion] 3 months ago. No job & no prospects. I wanted to study at Uni using armed forces contigent. No way. Only if you are a Basiji or IRGC, or best, you are a Basiji whose dad is with IRGC do you get your scholarship at application, get your degree in 1 month, your post-grad in 3, PhD in 6 & go on becoming the president or minister or high-ranked Guards commander. My life is sadly without prospects.”
Soldier : “I’m exiled to some God forbidden place at the border with Azerbaijan. They send us here to rot. Only good thing is that all comrades here share same fate, so [we support each other].”
Soldier : “Brother, who cares [if the announcement is real]? It’s the content that counts & it’s 100% accurate. We’ve had it.”
IRGC Soldier : “Our lion Ali Fazli has been removed. He was the last of pure & loyal high commanders left, who actually served in war. All those remaining are, like Ahmadinejad, never been to war. He’s got a decorative desk job under Taeb. Isn’t it a shame? There are no commanders left who are respected by the body of Sepah, which is still made up of pure & loyal brothers serving their country. With Fazli gone and new commanders in, they risk our uprising soon. By the way : Please tell everyone out there that we weren’t involved in crushing protests.”
It is also worth noting that it had been reported that in both Khatami elections more than %70 of the Sepah personnel ( I am not talking about the regular Army but IRGC) had voted for Khatami.
[Duplicate comment]
Mark,
For better or worse, I tend to look at issues as crises within systems, and I think what you point out in this comment is that there have been serious issues about the system in the Islamic Republic evolving over years rather than months.
S.
Scott,
Yes. Not sure if you are following the latest rumors. Lots of chatter on the possibility of a new coup d'etat. There are rumors that a new wave of arrests have been under plan and that the Army and IRGC have been put on high alert and Army has been issued orders to stay inside their barracks. Apparently this order. Rumors have it that this order was given on 20th of Azar. If true then this explains the timing of the letter from the Army. Stay tuned, next 12-24 hours is going to be very interesting. I would not be surprised if there is fighting between different armed factions if the regime goes ahead with the second coup d'etat.
People,
CHIL OUT! You are just feeding the IRGC's line of propaganda!
This is not the first time they spread rumors of an "imaginary" clash to tighten their grips on power.
I find it disturbing that how a rumor translated by homylafayette is spinning out of control on this "supposedly" Iran-informed blog!
Naj,
Why do you think this is a rumor ? Can you share with us ? You have a direct line to IRGC ?
G'day Mark
Talking about rumours - here is another interesting one :)
http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1658
Distractions! Distractions! Anything to try to take people's minds away from the main game! Probably a load of rubbish - but something that they would possibly be silly enough to try.
Barry
"This is not the first time they spread rumors of an “imaginary” clash to tighten their grips on power."
nah, spreading rumours of imaginary clashes is self-defeating for the government. Rumours of clashes (imaginary or not), can quickly lead to more real clashes. The actual propaganda line is that there are no clashes. The whole military is in line, and if you disagree you are alone and they will crush you. So, if these clashes are indeed imaginary, than these rumours are definitely being spread by opposers of the regime.
Hi Somebody
You are probably right .
But I did see another rumour today that I have not repeated here -- something about a goat??? :)
Barry
Naj,
I appreciate the caution. The updates are reporting the rumours but maintaining the caution that there is no substantial action at this point. At the same time, the rumour of Mousavi's arrest was not sparked by a blogger (HomyLafayette) but by Mousavi's own website Kalemeh.
S.
Scott,
I know. The rumor of the "army letter" is spread by the regime.
Mark asks why?
First is the opening of the letter; its starts in the name of "yazdan"; yazdan is the persian word for God; it is used only by ultra-nationalists who live in exile and consider Islam an imported Arab tradition. The Iranian army is not an entity separate from the IRGC. The entire army in Iran is under control of the supreme leader. It is the supreme leader who selects all generals. The army is run by highly Islamic individuals. In Iran there is such a thing called "gozinesh", this means if you are to get a job, especially a high profile one, thorough investigation will be done to ensure your ideological alignment. To think the army will issue a statement starting with Yazdan automatically pushes it into the "propaganda" line. This gives the coup d'etat militia and IRGC the "excuse" to eliminate the SUPPOSEDLY "non-islamic" and "american-Iranian" sources of "conspiracy" (they call that fetneh). This kind of a "rumor" ALSO gauges the enthusiasm of the foreigners; and then the signs of foreign enthusiasm will be used to further feed the "legitimacy" of crackdowns inside Iran.
By issuing this letter from a "supposed" renegade military body aiming at mutiny, the IRGC is creating the condition that allows them put the country in full military alert in the name of preventing a "coup detat by the corrupt army personelle who are so unislamic that they use word Yazdan instead of allah".
I invite you to visit my latest post about the motivations behind the khomeini-picture burning; to gain a little insight into the dynamics of the chess game Ahmadinejad's playing.
Somebody,
Actually you are not correct. The official line has since last week changed to "there are real clashes", and the evidence for it was broadcast on the IRIB, when they showed picures of Khomeni burning, and then cutting those images with images of the 16-azar student protests and anti-regime chants.
Moreover, Larijani came out last week to condemn the demonization of Hashemi.
Moreover, the general prosecutor has been making provocative statements about necessity of arresting leaders of Fetneh.
And, recently another pro-government official has stated that "we know that the university did not vote of Ahmadinejad and that the situation on the university campuses are inflamed and not ordinary"
Naj,
My apologies for not noting your post earlier and its perspective on the controversy --- I will remedy this in our updates this morning.
S.
Megan,
Thanks- since you're the third person to report problems I'm going to disable to plugin for the time being. Unfortunately that means nobody will be able to edit comments after posting, but at least it will avoid confusion/ frustration.
Hi Naj,
I salute your stand on this and I fully agree that if you add up all the small elements it smells rotten. This is either a letter from the INSIDE or a Group of individuals (or Opposition) from outside Iran.
I feel we all need to be carfull with these sorta news. Allow your selves a few days to see if the news gets confirmed and also to fully understand if the letter is not geniune then who is the responsible party and what is its purpose.
Unfortunatly we are all so desperate for a glimpse of hope that we are wanting to believe everything. But if you look at the letter objectively and look at all the details then at best one has to admit that it smells rotten.
To add to Mike's post: if you put up a comment and notice a mistake, just let us know in a subsequent comment or an e-mail. We'll carry out the edit as soon as possible.
S.
none,
Another angle that Naj brought up was the use of a "false flag." One could see the regime putting out this document to give the reform movement a sense of false confidence. Thus when the next protests come protestors will be more emboldened and thus more reckless possibly violent. They can then use this as a pretext to violently crush the movement with the hopes of ending it. It's sort of like an army sending out a skirmish party to draw out the main forces then hit them once exposed with their full might. The draw back in a political arena is the result is not as predictable. It is so simply because, unlike a military conflict, they can't kill everyone. It would buy them some empty streets in the short term but long term it would only raise the possibility they will fall. As we all know totalitarian regimes are not good planners but instead often fixate on the immediate. Time will tell.
Thx
Bill
@Afshin,
Yes, I usually sleep on such outlandish news; and then publish them *only* if I can put them in context. But, blogging and twittering and facebooking has also a little "Reward" mechanism built into it; it lures one to jump quickly on things to get cited (I am not suggesting this about this particular blog, Enduring America; just speaking in general even about myself, about Balatarin and etc.) But if I MAY be frank, I can never understand why people who are not Iranian would be eager for its regime to fall! Truth is, the Iranian regime is only a peril to Iranians themselves. I reject the notion of "Iran being the biggest terrorist exporter of the world." I think Iranian terror doesn't come close to American and Israeli ones, which are conducted with UN resolutions; or even in defiance of UN resolutions, without penalty or sanctions. From non-Iranian blogs, I expect to see an active engagement of THEIR OWN countrymen about how Iran's politics interacts with their interest. This is the kind of solidarity I seek from non-Iranians; to not step ahead of Iranians INSIDE IRAN, in zeal for regime change or democracy.
Iran is a COMPLEX society; news do not tell all of the story.
Naj,
You clarified quite a bit wit your last post. The news was first published by gooya which is a fairly reputable site, I don't know who you are, but please let people know. Who are you ? We have read gooya for 12 years or so and so far they have been very accurate on tons of thing that they post. Mohsen Sazagara has also talked about this letter twice now. He is well informed and so far he has been right on the money with everything since June. Your Yazdan point is weak. I spent 7 years in Iran and I can tell you lots of people use the term Yazdan or Khoda when they want to it to be known that they are not hezollahis. You had never posted here before till last night which makes this even a more interesting conversation. As for Israeli or American Terror, that is besides a point. Let's talk about Iranian terror. What Israel or America is irrelevant and no excuse. Last time I checked Israelis and Americans were not raping, torturing and imprisoning young Iranians. So, I think it is very clear where you stand. So why are you here ?