Friday
Dec112009
Iran: "The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People"? (with Audio)
Friday, December 11, 2009 at 12:37 
UPDATE 1225 GMT: The prominent Iranian exile, Mohsen Sazegara, has declared in a video message that the claimed letter and audio will be significant in assuring people that Iranian military forces are with them.UPDATE 0845 GMT: The claimed audio of the announcement of the eight regiments has now been posted.
The letter, on the reformist website Gooya, appeared last evening: "The Army is the Refuge of the People". This morning it is still causing excitement and uncertainty: is a section of the Iranian army and air force preparing to stand against the Government and "with the Iranian people" if the regime's violence continues?
Translation of the letter, purportedly signed by eight military units, from HomyLafayette:
In the name of pure God (NB Instead of the Arabic Allah, the word Yazdan is used. Yazdan is derived from the ancient Iranian language of Pahlavi. This may indicate that the author(s) of the statement are more patriotic than religious. It may also indicate that the author(s) want to target military personnel who are more patriotic than religious.)
The military is the refuge of the nation
In the years of the Sacred Defense (NB The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988) when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we defended this land, we were in reality defending the honor and dignity and lives and possessions of the Iranian people. The country is precious because the Iranian nation is precious. The weapons of the Revolutionary Guards and the military must be employed in the service of this nation and the lives [of their servicemen] should be sacrificed for the people of Iran. In the days when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we were giving our lives for this nation, we never imagined that a day would come when a group of Guardsmen, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority of the true and devoted personnel of the Revolutionary Guards, would use the might of their weapons against this nation.
The military considers itself the refuge of the nation and has never submitted to the demands of politicians to oppress the people. It has remained faithful to its vow to not interfere in politics, but it cannot remain silent while its countrymen are persecuted and violated. For this reason, to those individuals who have been imposed on the Revolutionary Guards and who are engaged in aggression and tyranny against the lives and dignity and honor of the Iranian people and who, more than anyone, have betrayed the blood of the martyrs of our country's armed forces, whether it be the Revolutionary Guards or the military, we issue a serious warning that if they do not change course, they will be faced with the reaction of the military's selfless men. The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor.
[signed]
- A group of pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Havanirooz)
- A group of commanders and personnel of the 33rd artillery division of Isfahan
- A group of pilots and servicemen of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- The Shahid Sattari University of the the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the command staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the support training center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army
- A group of the professors and officials of the Imam Ali University for officers
- A group of the personnel and officials of the command center of the military
EA sources (and our readers, who picked up on the story several hours ago) have noted that 36 military generals 24 military officers were reportedly arrested in July for planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday Prayer speech in full military uniform, showing solidarity with demonstrators.
None of the regiments is Revolutionary Guard, and this morning the question is large: how much support do these eight regiments have in the rest of the Army and Air Force?
Reader Comments (141)
Mike Dunn,
The edit function does not work. It said I could not edit after some one has posted after me. I never had any problem in the past. This was the first time.
@ Megan
Act of brilliance you say ?
Below is the list if the groups of people who have claimed to be behind the letter.
Do you seriously believe that in a country like Iran and with the Secrtet Service of Iran so many people can communicate with each other without the Spies getting the info ?????
Even if our hopes are real and the letter and tape are genuine, do you seriuosly believe that Ettelaat would not have atleast known about this and has not arrested any of them ?
Now there are a lot of people who have communicated with each other on this, it is absolutly impossible to have so many people communicate on such a major thing and expect the Secret Service not to know about it.
- A group of pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Havanirooz)
- A group of commanders and personnel of the 33rd artillery division of Isfahan
- A group of pilots and servicemen of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- The Shahid Sattari University of the the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the command staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the support training center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army
- A group of the professors and officials of the Imam Ali University for officers
- A group of the personnel and officials of the command center of the military
Afshin,
You were away for a while. Welcome back.
There is no harm in believing in this news. I hope Iranians in Iran believe in it. It will embolden them and it will boost their morale, something they have not had for a long time.
There is enough sadness and hopelessness in Iran so what if this was done to boost people’s spirits and create fear in the regime. And what is the harm in people feeling they might have a helping hand. Believing in credibility of this news does not damage the Movement tactically or strategically, does it?
@Afshin
and your assertions that you clearly are just making up without an iota of proof other than pounding your chest, calling people dumb and desperate, or putting seriously in front of your sentence and declare it a fact real logic ? it obviously is your opinion that you think most people are delusional and naive to believe anything ( mainly due to the fact that you think you are much smarter than anyone here) Is this somehow logical ? Of course that may be so, but it is far more probable that it is not. Don't be so preoccupied about being right, unfortunately this thread is not about you. State your opinion and let people make up their mind no matter how naive and desperate you think they are.
@ Afshin and Mark
I think Afshin is just applying a higher standard of verification. There is indeed no concrete proof that this letter is legitimate. However, how high must our burden of proof be when evaluating this kind of information? Journalists often use anonymous sources and in highly charged and repressed political situations, these difficult to verify sources are often the only means of spreading certain kinds of information. So, while I think Afshin is correct in being cautious as to the absolute truth of this particular letter, I think it's fair to take this letter as one more data point in a graph which more and more is charting the dissatisfaction of the regular army with the repression of the sepah and the political climate that has been generated by that repression.
@ Megan
I do agree that a general belief in this letter can only be beneficial for the opposition (especially given it's non-specificity and therefore it's low potential for leading to strategic mistakes) but as a rule I don't think we should be willing to play fast and loose with the truth. Decisions based on inaccurate information, even inaccurately positive information, can lead to strategic failures. There's also an ethical side to this question. It's the regime and their shameful broadcasters and newspapers that let the ends justify the means when it comes to the truth. We can and must hold a higher standard than that.
@somebody,
Agreed, these are all data points and points of view. Under the circumstances anything and everything is suspect as well as possible. I mean do we even have concrete proof that the election was in fact fraudulent ?
If this was fake, wouldn`t the regime be quick to denounce the rumours? internally they play down all opposition forces claming they are peripheral, and internationally they want to portray the people being united behind the regime. Concider this letter together with the rumours about SL being in hiding and Rafs latest maneuvers.
@angie
it's so simplemindedly to think they can get away by just not writing their names! high ranking officers and their families are under surveillance 24/7 as afshin said. that's why I say it raises questions because if an army commander doesn't dare sign a letter -even though he knows that intelligence already is aware of what he is doing - he certainly will not put his life on the line for people.
@megan
Divide and conquer has a different meaning... but I know what u mean...
it's been 24hours and no credible news agency has confirmed it. If a group of high ranking officers want to publish an announcement, why would they do it on friday, and send it to a news agency outside of Iran? Why not send it to hamshahri or kaleme for example? just like mirhossein and karroubi???
@shangool
Since the army is the last important base inside the regime that is not taken yet, regime can benefit from this; and since there's no name, nobody in Army - other than possible writers - can actually deny or confirm it.
Megan,
My own speculation --- and it is just speculation --- is now alongside "Man Who Knows Too Much". This "burning of Khomeini & Khamenei" now feels like a disinformation video. If it was just the current Supreme Leader who was attacked, then I would be more likely to accept it as real, given attacks on his image in past demos. Stepping it up to deface the Imam seems a step too far in angering those who still believe in his role and vision in the 1979 Republic.
Of course, if a Green member DID burn the photo, then the propaganda tactic --- given the hostility being stirred in the press --- is to turn it back on the regime and say, "Nope, wasn't us, it was you".....
S.
If this letter is real, is it significant that it comes approximately a week before the start of the Islamic holy month Moharram? Perhaps it is meant to give the Regime a week to think very carefully about how they want to deal with any upcoming demonstrations. A kind of "If you touch one hair on their heads..." message.
@scott
what do you think about credibility of the letter? given the fact that artillery group 33 is not in Isfahan (unlike what signature says) and nobody in the credible opposition sites is confirming it?
I don't know whether you can read Farsi, but opposition and students have strongly denied and denounced burning khomeini's picture in the official site of kaleme.
None,
I do not think u know what I mean. My "divide and conquer" remark was not in reference to letter of warning by military.
I prescribe a dose of reading before commenting.
@ megan
since society has already been polarized, divide and conquer is not the the case here anymore. (obviously) they are looking for a justification to go after reformists.
None,
1. On the letter --- My speculation (and it is only speculation) from the letter/audio and responses around it is that it is most likely an effort from Iranians outside the country to bump the military into action and to unsettle the Government. The important issue at this point is whether people, inside and outside regime, think the letter is authentic. That's enough to unsettle and confuse the Government, possibly prompting it into ill-considered reaction.
2. On the supposed burning of the picture, see my response to Megan above, which fits this latest news from Kalemeh.
S.
Somebody,
Please spare me the sanctimony.
“as a rule I don’t think we should be willing to play fast and loose”. Then don’t.
“We can and must hold a higher standard”
So hold your higher standard but stop lecturing me. What is with you anyway? What is all this self-righteousness when you address me? Who are the “we” you are asking to heed your call. I certainly have not qualified you to teach me ethics.
“There’s also an ethical side to this question.”
Ethical???????????? I wonder how Taraneh Mousavi’s mother or a father whose son was raped and murdered in Kahrizak would say to you in response.
Sometimes I wonder who is more annoying, Samuel(s) of this world or Sanctimonious Somebody(s) of this world. I would say latter.
I really detest your tone toward my comments. You did that in the very first comment I posted on this blog and you are still at it. Drop it.
Thank you Scott. Your analysis on the letter seems consistent with most of the credible analyses I've read in the past 24 hours. Apparently top reformists haven't fallen for it. Let's wait and see How people react.
I just wonder why Sazegara has confirmed it.
stop thanking Scott or samuel, any of you do not know if this letter/statement is real or fake, untill you KNOW. all your words on this blog is SPECULATIONS. Leave it at THAT, and stop writing comments as if you really know whats going on based on your keyboard speculations. THANKS.
None,
I do not like to repeat myself but you leave me no choice.
I wrote that I heard a caller from Iran claiming that the regime itself had burned the picture of Khomeini and then broadcasted those images on Press TV (Regime owned broadcasting). This person believed that the regime had done that for the following gains:
To stir emotions in those who still believe in Khomeini. To discredit Green Movement as non-believers or kafar (anti Islam). To marginalize reformists and leaders of Green Movement. To put citizens against citizens, divide and conquer.
First, I was relating what I had heard. Second, the divide and conquer in this case meant putting regime supporters that could be your neighbors, your basiji classmates, your co-workers, your family members, your shop keepers fighting with you and others who support Green Democracy Movement. We saw in one of 16 Azar videos a fight and push and shove breaking out in one of the university protest between Basiji and non-Basiji students.
I thanked Scott for answering my question. just out of courtesy.
The authenticity of letter is still unknown. So is the credibility of Sazegara. though the PROBABILITY of authenticity decreases as time goes by without officials confirming it.
The paranoia must be peaking about now for the SL and the regime!!! Just think how paranoid they are if they at one time thought the journalist from the comedy show "Jon Stewart" was a spy. The fact the regime is quite shows the are taking this seriously. The quite also seems to indicate they were not the authors. Like many I dobut the veracity of the document but who can tell with everything blacked out in Iran. The one theory I do think has some truth to it is the psy ops angle! Could easily see the CIA, Mossad, or MI5 doing this. Either way the reform movement should be able to use it for it's benefit
The SL burning video was obviously a regime ploy and the fact they aired it on TV was all the proof we needed. Any other time and that video would never made it to air let alone any news agency. In addtion, Samuel's continual bleating on about also says it was likely a regime ploy.
Thx
Bill
"Marg Bar Dictator"
Bill,
I think the one who knows about the source of letter more than anyone else in Iran is the Iranian intelligence. So I guess now they have the upper hand in the game and we are left in the dark :(. And their silence can indicate many things, including planning the next move to benefit from this; but I don't see any conclusive evidence to believe they haven't been the authors (in case the letter is fake).
@ megan
I don't like you to repeat yourself either.
not every brain washing strategy is divide and conquer. the scope of this strategy is limited to a society with some degree of unity. we are already divided. and those commoners you mentioned believed state media since the very beginning and called us thugs and traitors a week after election. (divide and conquer could work before election but not now)
those basiji students you saw were mostly non-student basijis who entered university by showing special tickets to security. they had everything planned before picture burning.
since the government has become "the boy who cried wolf" this will not have a "divide and conquer" effect. I think due to the internal and external pressures, they are desperately seeking a solution to rationalize their courts and convictions. They are simply SETTING GREENS UP.
Afshin,
You misunderstood the meaning of my statement. I wrote: Whoever or whichever group did it, it is a stroke of brilliance in warfare.
Did I say the letter was authentic? No. Did I say it the letter was fake? No. Did
I mean warfare in the context of military exercise? No. Did I mean psychological warfare? Yes.
None,
You are missing the point. I related what an Iranian caller from Iran said on a radio program. He certainly believed that it was divide and conquer. You can disagree with him.
Student or non-student, it was a fight among fellow citizens.
Just because you think certain tactic does not or will not work, that does not mean regime dose not or will not try it. People chant bullet, torture, rape will not work but government still does that.
I really do not see any point for us debating this. Let's agree to disagree
Actually I'm inclined to agree with Megan on this. I have no doubt that the regime will employ any tactic at its disposal to create a rift among the "green movement" as long as it deems that there is a low risk of backfiring. Burning the image of Khomeini has a "triple effect". First, it can mobilize the passive supporters of Khomeini (who might not necessarily support the regime) against the green movement. Secondly, it can create a division among the moderate and extremist elements within the green movement itself. Finally, it could separate the leadership from its following.
Of course if the people find out (or at least believe) that the regime itself is responsible for the burning of the images, the regime runs the risk of losing a large portion of the Khomeini supporters.