Friday
Dec112009
Iran: "The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People"? (with Audio)
Friday, December 11, 2009 at 12:37 
UPDATE 1225 GMT: The prominent Iranian exile, Mohsen Sazegara, has declared in a video message that the claimed letter and audio will be significant in assuring people that Iranian military forces are with them.UPDATE 0845 GMT: The claimed audio of the announcement of the eight regiments has now been posted.
The letter, on the reformist website Gooya, appeared last evening: "The Army is the Refuge of the People". This morning it is still causing excitement and uncertainty: is a section of the Iranian army and air force preparing to stand against the Government and "with the Iranian people" if the regime's violence continues?
Translation of the letter, purportedly signed by eight military units, from HomyLafayette:
In the name of pure God (NB Instead of the Arabic Allah, the word Yazdan is used. Yazdan is derived from the ancient Iranian language of Pahlavi. This may indicate that the author(s) of the statement are more patriotic than religious. It may also indicate that the author(s) want to target military personnel who are more patriotic than religious.)
The military is the refuge of the nation
In the years of the Sacred Defense (NB The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988) when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we defended this land, we were in reality defending the honor and dignity and lives and possessions of the Iranian people. The country is precious because the Iranian nation is precious. The weapons of the Revolutionary Guards and the military must be employed in the service of this nation and the lives [of their servicemen] should be sacrificed for the people of Iran. In the days when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we were giving our lives for this nation, we never imagined that a day would come when a group of Guardsmen, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority of the true and devoted personnel of the Revolutionary Guards, would use the might of their weapons against this nation.
The military considers itself the refuge of the nation and has never submitted to the demands of politicians to oppress the people. It has remained faithful to its vow to not interfere in politics, but it cannot remain silent while its countrymen are persecuted and violated. For this reason, to those individuals who have been imposed on the Revolutionary Guards and who are engaged in aggression and tyranny against the lives and dignity and honor of the Iranian people and who, more than anyone, have betrayed the blood of the martyrs of our country's armed forces, whether it be the Revolutionary Guards or the military, we issue a serious warning that if they do not change course, they will be faced with the reaction of the military's selfless men. The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor.
[signed]
- A group of pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Havanirooz)
- A group of commanders and personnel of the 33rd artillery division of Isfahan
- A group of pilots and servicemen of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- The Shahid Sattari University of the the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the command staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the support training center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army
- A group of the professors and officials of the Imam Ali University for officers
- A group of the personnel and officials of the command center of the military
EA sources (and our readers, who picked up on the story several hours ago) have noted that 36 military generals 24 military officers were reportedly arrested in July for planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday Prayer speech in full military uniform, showing solidarity with demonstrators.
None of the regiments is Revolutionary Guard, and this morning the question is large: how much support do these eight regiments have in the rest of the Army and Air Force?
Reader Comments (141)
Naj,
BTW if you like Chess, I invite you to watch the game Rafsanjani is playing.
And the Iranian Army is an entity completely different than Sepah. Yet again you are dead wrong. Please be factual.
Naj,
What is your blog ? can you share that with us ?
http://iranfacts.blogspot.com
You could have reached my blog by clicking on my name.
Wow Mark, you are quite jumpy! Living in Iran for 7 years has made you an Iranian expert?!
@Bill,
Way too far fetched and makes no strategic sense at all. For the regime to put out this letter so it can use that as an excuse to further clamp down ? This is the most absurd argument ever. The regime does not need any more reasons to clamp down. They have enough. What the hell is it they have been doing for the last six months. You think the regime needs more excuses ? As for the letter, the last thing a regime which is imploding and cracking from inside wants to do is to portray that it is not in control if it's armed forces. This over complicated analysis ( I am using the term analysis loosely here, more like a paranoid attack of a highly schizophrenic mind looking at an simple event) is way off. Either the letter is a complete hoax which is possible but again several fairly reputable site and people have talked about it and released it, or it was actually written by some officers in the army. Occam's razor. The simplest explanation is typically the best.
Naj,
Clearly you claim to be the expert and the lecturer here and drawing lines on who should or should not say what to whom and when in what context. I was born in Iran, left when I was 22 after the revolution, and yes also did military service in the Iranian Army in the Iran-Iraq war as an artillery scout. Went back and lived their recently for seven years. I simply mentioned that so it can put things in perspective. Had never heard of your blog. I will check it out. The more the better.
Naj,
Great blog, will enjoy it, thank you for mentioning it.
Scott,
You guys might want to look into this. Again, if you guys as an organization want to somewhat give analysis, it is good to look at these data points. General Ali Fazli, and IRGC general and commander of the Sepah forces in Tehran seems to have been relieved from his duty. You guys can do your own research. He was quoted by the Iranian news agencies as saying that on 16 of Azar the Sepah will give flowers to the students. He was moved under Mr Taeb two days after 16th of Azar. He no longer has operational duties. There were rumors back in June that he had declined to have forces directly under his command to take part in the crack down. He is very popular within the guard and was a war hero.
Mark,
I had picked up on the rumour that Fazli had been replaced but have been unable to confirm. Any info welcomed....
S.
Mark, yes I heard that about Fazli too. I have to admit that the Persian press these days is not only cryptic, but also very brief. I am going to wait and watch what pattern emerges; it seems very fuzzy to me at the moment--and this may very well be a camouflage.
Just to clarify; I am not lecturing anyone; I am just cautioning people who seem to care about Iran that their good intentions may in fact harm the movement inside Iran. I am happy to know you are Iranian; because only an Iranian can know how things are never really how they look :)
That military statement scared the shit out of me because yes I saw it on gooya news too; and yes I trusted them too, and no I am sure gooya did not fabricate it. But, I also recognized that such a statement would turn into an ace in the hand of the fascists to further militarize the situation and start the bloodbath. I have no doubt that many in the IRGC and the army are quite dissatisfied with what is happening; but these people are no holding key positions of power. And if they do, they find themselves more useful by "keeping the enemy closer".
Let's remember what army did in the 1979 revolution: they never opened fire on their commanders and on the shah's forces; they only turned their weapons away from the people and refused to shoot. For the army to declare open war on the fascists will drag the country into civil war--and no one wit the slightest care fro Iran will allow this messianic dream of Ahmadinejad come true. (I am sure many of the "homafaran" who opened the weapon vaults to revolutionary people in 1979 lived or died regretting to have let arms fall in the hands of zealous revolutionaries ...)
You remember perfectly, The Army did not crack till Homafaran ( Air Force Cadets) literally joined the revolutionary forces. I think that it is again highly plausible that this could happen again, no exactly but similar. It is hard to say what is going on with Fazli but looking at the situation at hand and the level of censorship as the disinformation coming out of the Iranian new outlets, I think they way to decipher is to look at patterns which you clearly and correctly state. In fascist regimes the government will not directly kill or attack popular military figures in the open. When Hitler found out about Rommel's position and anti-Hitler feelings they did not arrest him, they told him that if he did not commit suicide they would kill him and his wife and children. He opted to take the pill and spare his family. These things are possible. We don't know what has been done to Fazli and behind the scenes. They could be holding him and just using his name, or ask him to say certain things or else.....
1. Rumors first emerged about him being not on the same page with respect to crack down back in June.
2. There was silence for about 4 weeks without any news or word or statement from him.
3. He appeared about 4 weeks later denying the initial rumors ( 4 weeks is a long time to wait to deny a serious charge)
4. He was quoted by official news agencies in Iran that the Sepah would give flowers to the students and loves and supports students
5. There was a shuffle and now he reports directly to Taeb.
6. It is rumored that he no longer has any operational duty but this is hard to verify under the current circumstances
7. He is a very popular commander in the Sepah and a war hero.
So one would need to deduct and reason and extrapolate and detect a pattern. The pattern clearly states that there must be some disconnect between him and the regime.
Iran is a very complex country indeed and Iranians in general are extremely non-linear thinkers ( we culturally are thought and trained to be as we grow up due to our cultural) . Non-linear thinking is very powerful could unfortunately lead to over analyzing simple patterns. All of this news is all very murky indeed.
[...] More here. The letter first appeared on the Iranian reformist website Gooya. As you can see in the [...]
Mark,
It was just a thought on my part. The reality is that it does not matter what you or think but only what the regime does. The issue then is we don't know what the regime thinks thus we over analyze this situation as you mentioned. While my idea may be far fetched a precedance was set by the buring of the Khomeini picture. As for an excuse it was in reference to "much more brutality." Yes it is brutal now but the regime knows it didn't work. When they start to feel they have nothing to lose they are going to try all kinds of "far out there" strategies. As we have all seen the regime has been quite active trying to provoke more radical edges of the Green Movement. They are desperate to try to justify their actions! Taking that all into account I personally don't believe it is to far fetched for them to have authored this document. However, again it is just speculation and as indicated I might be over analyzing the situation. Time will tell.
Thx
Bill
"The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor."
Even if this is real, isn't this sentence a cause for concern? Does the United States really want a military coup in Iran that would lead to a nationalistic military dictatorship? Especially if said nationalistic military dictatorship continues on the path of nuclear energy?
^@Anon:
1. Ultimately, it's THEIR (Iranians) business, not ours.
2. Depends. Does the Army step in as a "last resort," just long enough to arrest/exile KH & AN and crew, then returning governance to civilian control shortly thereafter, or do they seize and RETAIN power?