Friday
Dec112009
Iran: "The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People"? (with Audio)
Friday, December 11, 2009 at 12:37 
UPDATE 1225 GMT: The prominent Iranian exile, Mohsen Sazegara, has declared in a video message that the claimed letter and audio will be significant in assuring people that Iranian military forces are with them.UPDATE 0845 GMT: The claimed audio of the announcement of the eight regiments has now been posted.
The letter, on the reformist website Gooya, appeared last evening: "The Army is the Refuge of the People". This morning it is still causing excitement and uncertainty: is a section of the Iranian army and air force preparing to stand against the Government and "with the Iranian people" if the regime's violence continues?
Translation of the letter, purportedly signed by eight military units, from HomyLafayette:
In the name of pure God (NB Instead of the Arabic Allah, the word Yazdan is used. Yazdan is derived from the ancient Iranian language of Pahlavi. This may indicate that the author(s) of the statement are more patriotic than religious. It may also indicate that the author(s) want to target military personnel who are more patriotic than religious.)
The military is the refuge of the nation
In the years of the Sacred Defense (NB The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988) when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we defended this land, we were in reality defending the honor and dignity and lives and possessions of the Iranian people. The country is precious because the Iranian nation is precious. The weapons of the Revolutionary Guards and the military must be employed in the service of this nation and the lives [of their servicemen] should be sacrificed for the people of Iran. In the days when, alongside our Revolutionary Guards brothers, we were giving our lives for this nation, we never imagined that a day would come when a group of Guardsmen, contrary to the wishes of the vast majority of the true and devoted personnel of the Revolutionary Guards, would use the might of their weapons against this nation.
The military considers itself the refuge of the nation and has never submitted to the demands of politicians to oppress the people. It has remained faithful to its vow to not interfere in politics, but it cannot remain silent while its countrymen are persecuted and violated. For this reason, to those individuals who have been imposed on the Revolutionary Guards and who are engaged in aggression and tyranny against the lives and dignity and honor of the Iranian people and who, more than anyone, have betrayed the blood of the martyrs of our country's armed forces, whether it be the Revolutionary Guards or the military, we issue a serious warning that if they do not change course, they will be faced with the reaction of the military's selfless men. The military is the refuge of the people, and it will defend, to its last drop of blood, the peaceful people of Iran against any aggressor.
[signed]
- A group of pilots and personnel of the aviation division of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Havanirooz)
- A group of commanders and personnel of the 33rd artillery division of Isfahan
- A group of pilots and servicemen of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- The Shahid Sattari University of the the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the command staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (Nahaja)
- A group of the personnel of the support training center of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army
- A group of the professors and officials of the Imam Ali University for officers
- A group of the personnel and officials of the command center of the military
EA sources (and our readers, who picked up on the story several hours ago) have noted that 36 military generals 24 military officers were reportedly arrested in July for planning to attend Hashemi Rafsanjani's Friday Prayer speech in full military uniform, showing solidarity with demonstrators.
None of the regiments is Revolutionary Guard, and this morning the question is large: how much support do these eight regiments have in the rest of the Army and Air Force?
Reader Comments (141)
I agree with Adam and Mehram; we need to break eggs to make an omlette and what better than an army ( our dear Artesh ) to defend the innocent people; it's too easy beating unarmed people who march peacefully in the street but now they will think twice before becoming agressif; we are too lucky and thanks for their support !
Mehram
I agree with you - the problem is we just don't know, and I guess rather than getting our hopes up, we are hedging our bets.
When we read the letter in this house, the opinion was it certainly could be genuine, it's definitely written by military men. The things that we hear in the letter are certainly similar to what we hear from the main body of the army in Iran.
Remember that whilst the very top of the army may be handpicked and counted as regime people, the ranks beneath that are 100% Iranian.
The Sepah have always been better treated and given better finance than the army - they were set up coz the regime didn't trust the Iranian army, which was loyal to the people, and the people's interest.
If the day ever comes that the regime wants to use the army against the people, there is no doubt that the army will refuse those orders, and most likely will defend the people.
Arashma
In green movement there are various cases of people, leftists, royalists, religious or others; if this regime disappear, we will have a referendum, to make a choice; fortunately,! and it's called "Democracy "! I think ( am pretty sure ) Reza II will run for the presidency .
There is nothing in that letter which states there are only 8 regiments behind this letter. Enduringamerica should be careful about mistakes likes this if it's trying to be taken seriously and treated as a reliable source for analysis.
Even in the U.S., federal troops were sent into southern states to protect civil rights activists where local forces were unwilling to provide that protection (or were actively engaged in violence). Okay, maybe the comparison isn't perfect and it still remains to be seen if this statement is legitimate but if it is, it is very good news.
I think the fear of civil war is unwarranted. I doubt either the majority of the rank and file of the military or the IRGC would obey such a command. The likely effect, instead, is that the lower ranks will separate from the leadership and the government will no longer be able to use its repressive apparatus. This separation from leadership (not just in the armed forces but also across the government), is, after-all, the whole point of non-violent resistance..
Also, I think the support of a former insider like Sazegara certainly lends some credibility to the authenticity of the statement (though certainly not enough for a confirmation).
For readers who have doubts about the authenticity of this document :
If the representent of Green Movement , Sazegara has said in his video,( he is kept up -to- date on the latest news from Iran ), it means it's a true news !
Dare to believe it !!
Mark,
I got the story early this morning from an Iranian contact who translated from Gooya as "regiment". Because of difficulties not only in translation but in differences between "Western" and Iranian force structures, I am going with "military unit" for the moment. I would be grateful for anyone who, working from the original or from the English translation, could offer insight into numbers of troops involved in the eight units that are named.
I think being treated seriously is a matter of being both timely with the story and also checking it rigorously. Thanks to our sources and readers, I'm pleased we're succeeding on both counts.
S.
Scott
In the latest from Iran 11 dec , EA, 14h55 , in Associeted Press article we could see this :
" The marches came after tens of thousands of opposition students protested at universities around Iran on Monday. Some burned pictures of Khamenei, breaking a taboo against insulting the leader. State TV aired footage of the picture burning, stoking hard-liner outrage."
I am sorry for Samuel but it was also shown in State TV, the burning of the " picture " !!
Ange Paris: I agree. If Gooya and Sazegara are both saying its authentic, it most likely is. The question now is what is the significance, are army personnel preparing to overthrow Khamenei (they could very quickly since Sepah is also divided) or merely threatening to go on strike?
Ange,
I think we have to be careful here --- the only video I can recall from 16 Azar was the footage allegedly from Sharif University of a gentleman defacing, then burning a picture of Khamenei and then a picture of Khamenei and Khomeini --- http://balatarin.com/topic/2009/12/11/1003926 (I would be grateful if readers know of other examples).
In that case, readers and I debated authenticity. One possibility has always been that the video was a "set-up" to discredit the Green movement in the eyes of those who would see the burning as irreverent/sacreligious. The Persian Balatarin has a thread debating the video --- http://balatarin.com/topic/2009/12/11/1003926.
I'm not saying that the incident did not occur in the protests, just that I cannot verify and that --- as the IRNA story shows --- it can be used for propaganda, whether or not it occurred.
S.
I believe the veracity of this document is very much in doubt and is perhaps part of the psy-ops being waged against Iran. From a purely, military point of view the regular armed forces or Artesh have been highly professionalized since the Iran-Iraq war and are under strict civilian control. From a C3I (command, control, communications and intelligence) perspective and highly integrated and hand picked general staff, an internal mutiny or a coup is highly improbable if not impossible. The IRGC and Basij are mostly responsible for internal security under Article 150 of the Iranian Constitution and will be the first line of security in the Tehran region.
In objectively assessing the political-military situation in Iran today, the Islamic Republe simply does not face a 1979 type coalition of the mosque, bazaaris, intellectuals, leftists (MKO, Fedayeen, Tudeh etc), urban middle-classes and the conservative rural masses (sucessfully co-opted by the Khomeni's Islamists). The shah's only pillar was the 550,000 US trained (300,000 conscripts) Iranian army led by inept and isolated elitist generals with very limited intelligence or grasp of the Iranian street thinking. Today, the situation is totally different.
The Islamic Republic enjoys very loyal and effective over-lapping intelligence services and widespread system of quasi-military organizations like the veterans Bonyads (foundations) that provide services to a wide segment of Iranian lower social classes. These are also the bedrock of the regime's support base.
The Sepah (IRGC) has its elite Seyed-ol-Shohada Corps strategically perched on the northern gateway of Tehran, and it can move swiftly into the metropolis and occupy all important institutions and buildings, and cut off the Iranian capital from the outside world, all within hours. This force has recently been augmented with heavy armor and air capability along with mass Basij mobilization.
Unlike the shah's 1979 military, the IRGC will not shy away from taking any decisive action if it feels the regime is in mortal danger. Any successful "regime change" is impossible without effective control over Tehran, and possiblly two other major urban centres like Isfahan or Shiraz. The prospect of such an upheavel are too far fethched indeed. The force structure of the regime is designed to swiftly move into the Tehran metropolis and occupy all important institutions, communication links and key buildings, and cut off the Iranian capital from the outside world, all within hours. The IRGC already controls the internet and cellular communications networks.
The level of dissent in Iran is not as widespread as sometimes reported by the foreign based vested interests. The regime still has widespread grass-roots support in both the rural areas as well as most urban centers. Most Iranians will not support an Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakistan style chaos or US orchestrated "regime change".
The time of civil wars has passed. it sounds more like a cold war. this is just a warning, if true, and it's clearly aimed at RG, to split them. there are veterans and ex-commanders in the RG that are unhappy and dissatisfied; if it was a tongue lashing just between army and a split RG, army would won. the problem is b-a-s-i-j which is huge and doesn't know any limits and goes with the corrupt side. let's be patient and see what happens tomorrow. nobody is confirming the authenticity of letter right now....
I see Samuel's got company here . . .
Scott,
Iranian Armed forces more or less follow the same structures as Western Armed forces. A regiment consists of two battalions.
Regiment is Persian is "hang". A regiment commander is "Sarhang" which is Colonel in English.
Battalion in Persian is "Gordan". A Battalion Commander is "Sargord" which is Lieutenant Colonel in English.
The letter is signed by a
Group of Pilots and Personnel of Havanirooz ( Air Ground support, which includes air defense systems as well as ground support includes attack and transport helicopters)
Group of commanders of the artillery group 33 of Isfihan
Group of Pilots and cadets of the Iranian Air Force ( Air combat)
The sattary Air Force Academy
Group of Commanders of the Air Force
Group of personnel of the logistics control of the Army
Group of professors/academic staff of the military Academy of Iran
Group of military commanders of joint chiefs of staff of the armed forces
As you see there is no reference to a particular regiment, division, battalion, etc.
Military Analyst,
You assertions are far more suspect than this letter. Shah's army was far less corrupt and much more unified, and much better trained than today's Sepah. There is nothing elite about the Sepah. Mainly they are called elite by the Israeli intelligence to make them sound more dangerous and a bigger threat than they really are.
Mark,
Thank you. In your opinion, is the English translation accurate as "group" when set against Persian original? And if so, how large is a "group" in comparison to a battalion?
S.
Mark
The Basiji and Pasdaran are ellite, not in training, equipment, accountability and ability to deliver, but more so in the sense of entitlement, in the treatment of themselves above the rest and in their sense of vindication in their actions.
The army and the Iranian people fought and lost brothers, sisters fathers and uncles in the war with Iraq, but only the Basiji and Pasdaran have capitalized on that loss to get university slots, coupons for goods, alotments of positions, goods and services, and now ability to make decisions for the massess.
This means they may not be ellites but certainly have ellitist attitudes.
@Adam
I really don't thing Whereismyvote is overestimating the goverment.
If anything they have always been underestimated.
Scott,
the Persian words that are used are the words used in general and do not have any military specifications
The Persian word "gorooh" is used in the first line which translates to group in English. Like saying a group of students.
The Persian word "Jamee" is also used which translates to "a number of" in English. Such as saying a number of offices of the joint chief of staff of the armed forces.
[Duplicate comment]
Roe Lassie
Well said ! I have thought it was him !
Samuel, you have real nerve bringing up "anti-Arabism" when your putrid, morally bankrupt Khomenist ideology is devastatingly anti-Iranian.
The vast majority of Iranians are no longer willing to suffer under your idolatrous, ersatz version of Islam and clerical mafia corruption. Accept it.
Is this an excuse for RG taking over Army headquarters and completing the last stage of the coup????
Military analyst
You have to change your "style" of writting to be believed ! I have prefered our Samuel !
Mark,
Again, much appreciated. From this, I take the not-so-helpful conclusion that --- even if the letter were authentic --- we can't tell number of forces involved.
S.