Iran Analysis: RegimeFail?
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:44 
If a demonstration occurs in the square but no one really notices, does it make a sound?It is less than 24 hours after the Iranian regime tried to build up a mass rally on the first day of the religious month of Moharram, not only for the pretext of protesting the burning of Ayatollah Khomeini's photograph but for the wider goal of showing the Government's political superiority over its opposition. Yet this morning, Iranian state medium Press TV, which was proclaiming that "millions" were on the streets of Iran, is not even bothering to mention the story, let alone update it. Fars News is now on the nuclear issue and promoting art about martyrs. The Islamic Republic News Agency is trying to boost President Ahmadinejad, after his appearance at the climate change talks in Copenhagen, with his rhetoric on how Iran --- unlike European countries --- supports freedom and democracy around the world. (IRNA, further down its page, has a short, rather limp story that a million people marched in support of Khomeini and the Supreme Leader.)
Iran on Moharram, Day 1: The Regime Flops?
The Latest from Iran (18 December): Moharram Begins
We tentatively suggested yesterday afternoon that the attempted demonstrations in Tehran, let alone in other parts of Iran where I have still not seen visual evidence, were a regime "flop". No need to be tentative now: this was a clear picture, after six months, not of a regime asserting its political strength but of a Government and even Supreme Leader struggling to maintain even a 24-hour appearance of political legitimacy. The sensational cries of "Death to Mousavi", whipped up by an Ayatollah Khamenei ally, made little more than fleeting headlines; indeed, I don't think even the base charge of "insult to Khomeini" was successfully stuck upon the opposition.
This, however, is the easy analysis to make this morning. Now the ball bounces back into the court of the opposition, be that Hashemi Rafsanjani, senior clerics, or the Green movement. Once more they have both the initiative and the burden of showing that their supporters are still ready to press their demands.
So on to Ashura (27 December), the key day of mourning and commemoration in Moharram marking the death of Imam Hossein. The Green movement rallied on Qods Day (18 September), which traditionally had been a regime day as it displayed its support of the Palestinians and their claim on Jerusalem. It rallied on National Students Day (7 December), which had marked the supremacy of the Islamic Republic over the Shah with the memory of the killing of three students in 1953. Can the opposition now mark one of the most important days on the Iranian and Shi'a Islam calendar as their own?
The regime failed yesterday, but that is far from enough to argue that it has lost. Those challenging the regime now have to prove they can make a meaningful, otherwise many Iranians (how many?) may sit on their hands in passivity and resignation.
It is eight days to Ashura.
Reader Comments (15)
"If a demonstration occurs in the square but no one really notices, does it make a sound?"
If a man says something - and his wife isn't there - is he still wrong??
Sorry for the frivolousness on my part - but you ask a very good question.
Barry
I've received this rumor from a few relatives in Iran, but for what it's worth the regime seems to have bussed in several thousand people from all over Tehran and surrounding area to stage pro-regime demonstrations. The regime's first failure was that it couldn't rally more than a few thousand people (perhaps explains why there were no helicopters shooting film from above). The second failure came after the demonstrations when the demonstrators started fighting amongst themselves to get back on the buses as quickly as possible. :)
“If a demonstration occurs in the square but no one really notices, does it make a sound?”
If a demonstration to commemorate father of the revolution in a square called Revolutionary Square is planned and no revolutionary shows up, has the revolution flat-lined like its father?
Today 27 Azar, December 18, Iranians finally said Thanks but No Thanks to Khomeini and his cult for a revolution that never was. Today Iranians turn the page so they can rename the Revolutionary Square to Bidary (awakening) Square.
I don't know if there will be a huge turnout at Ashura Tassua days and I am really worried and afraid of this;I hope and pray so that it were successful and millions of iranians flooded the streets.
I am so sad , AN & Co have reached their aim and split the opposition !
1-they have known that people have hated islamic republic
2-they have known that Moussavi has loved Khomeyni, as has said WIMV (Achill's heel)
In Iran we say : “sange bozorg alamate nazadan ast”, meaning “if you take a big stone it means you won’t beat somebody with” and the outcome of the act is negatif;
The foreign media are right to say iranian opposition is not clear !
I have always said we have to go step by step to reach our target; it’s easier to overthrow AN & Co than the complete change of the regime, it will last too long and perhaps we will be obliged to wait for the end of AN ’s term of office ( we are lucky because we will be able to demonstrate 3 times , three “22 bahman” !! if people dosen't want to participate in other demonstrations to support Moussavi ) !
In the other hand, the leaders of opposition have said themselves that “the will” of iranian people has changed compared to the begining of the turmoil, it’s not only “where is my vote”, but more :
1-separation of religion-state meaning ” veleyate faghih”’s abolition
2-justice has to be done to relief iranian people
I think it’s not fair to let opposition’s leaders down ! and very dangerous to reach our aim.
Our poor Shah was faster than music, in a muslim country he wanted to settle down a western systeme, and " it was just impossible" ! a “democratic” republic, even if it’s “islamic”, I don”t understand what’s the matter !
I hope that iranian people will continue to support our opposition's leaders; Unity make strength (I don't speak about unity with SL, this subject is dead; but unity between the supporters of the opposition)
Regards
Iranians gesture their thumb if they mean to give someone a middle finger. I hope in the next demonstration, they put a thumb size picture of Khomeini on their thumbs (you can print a mini photo on a round sticky). They can show the V sign by one hand and use the thumb with the bogeyman photo in the other hand to show their respect!!
Sorry folks, I did not mean to be rude. I am expressing the disgust that many people in Iran would like but cannot express.
Abbas Djavadi with RFE/RL thinks that Iran is likely to see a harsher crackdown in the coming weeks.
Published December 15, 2009
"The officially supported and orchestrated campaign that started last week to persecute the opposition across Iran leaves few doubts that Khamenei is just waiting for the moment to give the "order to open fire."
In the short term, an even harsher crackdown is foreseeable if the opposition presses ahead with the planned demonstrations for the month of Muharram -- and many bet they will.
But whether or not that would help Ahmadinejad and his mentor, Ayatollah Khamenei, in the medium term, is unclear. Mohsen Sazegara, an emigre opposition activist now addressing Iranians in daily video analyses, predicts that "millions will come out in demonstrations." He admits that "it won't break yet the neck of the regime as the Muharram demonstrations 31 years ago did with the Shah regime...but it will clearly demonstrate to the Iranian and world community the illegitimacy of the regime and the fact that they want a change."
http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Is_Likely_To_See_A_Harsher_Crackdown/1904745.html
Ange,
Please do not worry so much. Our focus should be people of Iran who have paid so much and not any individual leader. Opposition leaders sleep in their own bed at night, they are protected by their bodyguards when they step outside, they have millions in foreign banks, and if things get nasty they have the means to flee the country and do not have to go to a village in Turkey- they will live in a villa in France or Switzerland. Many Iranians, who have fled Iran in the past six months, have no place to go but Turkey. Turkish government has sent them to remote villages and even there they are being harassed by KH and AN thugs.
Let us keep those who are in jail and those who have died or those who have sustained physical injuries or those who have been psychologically scarred for life or those who do not have enough to eat and those who are homeless in our thoughts. If we want to worry we need to worry about them and not the opposition leaders.
People in Iran know better what works for them. Let’s have faith that they would not repeat the 1979 mistake. Let’s support them even if it is by writing words of support on blogs like this. And please do not worry.
Arshama,
Thanks for the lead --- credit to EA's Mr Azadi, who picked up on the move against Ayatollah Dastgheib in our updates earlier this week....
S.
@ Ange Paris
Uhm, I apologize for not getting the real meaning of your complaints. Esmail Nooriala has written a nice analysis on the split in the opposition due to Moussavi's and Karroubi's commitments to the "Imam" after burning his posters. http://www.newsecularism.com/2009/12/18.Friday/121809-Esmail-Nooriala-Novice-Chess-Player.htm
Nooriala compares the regime exploiting this act to a novice chess player, who spends its "king" for survival and tries to split the opposition into "believers" and "seculars", the latter being a dirty word in the IRI. Given that all attempts to a reconciliation of conflicting parties within the system have failed, he welcomes the regime's move as a catalyst to conduct the movement to a firm demand for a secular democracy in Iran.
I know that Western commentators reject such a view as an exiles dream, but recent developments in Iran show that a majority is fed up with this religious dictatorial system.
Arashma
Whereismyvote had written that he dosen't want to participate in the demonstrations during Moharram, and his next one will be the 22 Bahman demonstration, and he said that all the people hate this regime !
Ihave thought if all the iranians react like him, with only once a year's demonstration we won't be able to overthrow AN & co.
Arshama
Excuse me for the bad spelling of your name, I thought about "Arash" ; go to previous entries , " the regime's sword wavers" and look the comments ; I had already written my comment above in that part but after Scott's question in today analysis "Can the opposition now mark one of the most important days on the Iranian and Shi’a Islam calendar as their own?" speaking about Ashura Tassua and wondering if we will have a huge number of demonstrators, I wanted to express my distress !
Thank you, Ange Paris, for your explanations. Honestly speaking, I don't think that a majority will follow Whereismyvote's example and refrain from participating in Moharram's demonstrations. As long as all conventional channels for protest (press, radio and tv) are blocked, demonstrations remain the only means to express it. Do you remember the photo of a young couple, sitting side by side on the street for friday prayers in summer? It was so obvious that they never had done it before...
The infamous "taghyeh" (concealing one's real faith) also works the other way round, and our brave people have proven more than once that they take advantage of even the smallest chance to utter their protests against this regime.
I wonder why no one picked up this important news from ILNA: The judicial organisation of the Armed Forces admitted today that Mohsen Rouholamini, Amir Javadifar and Mohammad Kamrani died after being tortured in Kahrizak: http://ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=96947
This report also admits inhuman conditions and widespread mistreatment of detainees, announcing financial compensations for the mistreated and trial of the (unnamed) accused.
Arshama,
Thank you for the link to Nooriala analysis.
I just would like to add that reformist leaders are as novice as the regime. Both camps have made blunders of major proportion and they can share the title of the worst tacticians of the year.
If regime scarified its king in an attempt to hang on to power is because Reformists open the door for them. Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami were the ones who pulled the dead mullah king out of his coffin first. These three could not stop parading Khomeini around town and bragging about their kinship with him and how they were the true followers of him. Reformists did not understand their legitimacy comes from people not from a dead mullah who had anointed himself into sainthood. They did not understand millions of Iranians were no longer buying the Khomeini rubbish.
Regime put the dead king back in the game by burning its picture. It was now reformist move who had been checked. What do they do? What could they do except denying complicity in the controversy. They go further by admonishing their supporters to be respectful and loyal to the dead king, the same supporters who put them on the pages of history by taking bullets, baton, beating, and bleeding (many to their death). Then they had the audacity to ask students to reiterate their loyalty to the dead mullah king by carrying his picture in the following protest. As if that was not enough they plan a major protest on the same day as regime so they can show what? Who can chant louder Long Live Khomeini? Isn’t the monster dead?
Arashama, I have to say the winner of this round, the burning and tearing a worthless picture, is the regime. The problem is reformist leaders lost more than their Khomeini crutch; they lost many Green supports. Regime managed, as Ange mentioned, to split the Green supporters at least temporarily.
I just hope the Green/Rainbow Democracy Movement can find a leader who is smart, savvy and charismatic and who has the ability to articulate to masses, religious or secular, that in a democracy legitimacy of government comes from people not from religion or from God and, therefore, the government cannot tell people which religion they practice, it is you the people who chose your religion, your government, and your faith in God.
"find a leader who is smart, savvy and charismatic"
Take care that this superman doesn't then turn into yet another dictator.
Well Don Cox, maybe so many qualities aren't available at the moment, but I see what you mean.. However I always think Megan is right in her arguments.
I would really like to know more about what the opposition leaders really think.
Does it mean that Moussavi and cie don't really know that many are fed up with the regime, or because they really believe that they should defend it, by 'cleansing' it ? Or was it a desperate response to prevent their arrests ? How can you tell how many actually still venerate Khomeini ? Surely they know that some don't any more, but maybe they just don't know how to react to such events ?
Any clever opposition leader would have said that they don't know who desecrated the poster, but if it was the demonstrators it symbolises people's anger and frustration with the regime. But that they respect that others might feel angry at the act. They would also have said that maybe it was a plot to divide them. That they think that it's something that shows there are real deep problems and they are the ones who can deal with it because they understand what people are feeling.
Someone clever would have a word for everyone, showing at the same time another type of thinking, another approach that doesn't make so much of symbols, yet respecting those who wish to. The approach should always be on the real role of gvt, to serve the people and run the country, not interfere in their personal beliefs or even their idolizing of previous figures, whether religious or Shah, everyone can have their heros. But that times have changed, and that freedom of expression is OK, no big deal, and includes such things, just as in any normal democratic society.
They should get the train on the right track and out of the old black brick stations that need rebuilding. It also means recognizing that everyone needs a train and must all sit in it together. The destination is for everybody, and it's better that the journey is as pleasant as possible.
And, very important, plans for loads of psychologists with latest methods to de-brainwash all those basijis that will have to be recycled into normal jobs and thinking.