The Latest from Iran (24 January): Watching Carefully

2200 GMT: And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations.

Etemade Melli, via the Saham News website, repeated that Karroubi had the material to back up his accusations of detainee abuse: "It is necessary for you to know that Mr. Karroubi is standing firm and tall and has evidence for all his comments." it added in an address to the country's regime.

2145 GMT: Little hard news tonight, although rumours about Iran's economic situation continue to swirl. There is also nothing to clarify an increasingly complex domestic political contest.

One news item catches the eye, however:

A Russian banking delegation, headed by the deputy governor of the country's Central Bank, is due to visit Tehran on Monday, the Iranian envoy to Moscow announced on Saturday.

NEW Iran and Israel: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?
Iran Analysis: Should the Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?
Iran Discussion: How Would Ahmadinejad Fall? (And What Would Come Next?)
UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (23 January): Looking for Clues

"Deputy governor of Russia's Central Bank Melnikov and a number of officials from the other Russian banks will pay a visit to Iran on Monday in a bid to resolve banking issues and facilitate exchange and economic and trade activities between the two countries," Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told [Fars News Agency].

The Russian delegation is scheduled to meet Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Pourmohammadi and managing directors of a number of Iranian banks to discuss ways to expand banking relations between the two states.

1745 GMT: Your Economic Update. Reuters has a useful English-language summary of President Ahmadinejad's budget presentation to the Iranian Parliament today. Kalemeh reports that the Central Bank has extended the deadline on the validity of banknotes marked with Green slogans, effectively allowing their circulation for the indefinite future. And Persian2English carries claims of difficulties with banks in Isfahan.

1535 GMT: Ayande News keeps up its recent jabbing at the Government and regime, asking why the Supreme Leader has SL dedicated 21 speeches to post-election events if this is not a crisis.

1530 GMT: Rezaei's Latest Manoeuvre. A valued EA correspondent reports on the latest speech by Presidential candidate (and possible Ahmadinejad opponent) Mohsen Rezaei, given to students in Gilan.

Rezaei, as his recent Press TV interview, maintained his distance from the opposition by emphasising that he made his complaints about the Presidential election within the law. At the same time he complained, "We still don’t know how to face the opposition group," and noted, "In some other countries, police keeps the opposition safe rather than attacking them." Rezaei also repeated his criticism of the "very weak" Ahmadinejad Government.

And a curious post-script: news of Rezaei's speech was on Tabnak, the website linked to him, but was removed after a few minutes.

1520 GMT: Head-Spinner. OK, I'm going to have this one to smarter people to interpret. According to Kalemeh, Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President and former head of the Investigation Office of Presidency, has labeled Presidential aide and ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as an Israeli agent.

1510 GMT: Bank Issues. Peyke Iran supports Internet chatter with the story that shots have been fired at Bank Melli in the city of Ram Hormuz in southwestern Iran.

1340 GMT: The State of the Detainees. Fereshteh Ghazi has published a lengthy and wide-ranging article on those arrested after the election, including the detentions of family members of activists, the lack of information on Ashura and post-Ashura detainees for families and lawyers , and the health of prisoners such as former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi.

1210 GMT: Monica Luisa Macovei, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, has publicly declared in the Parliament, "I have decided to use most of my time for this intervention to highlight the names of people who, reportedly, are in detention in Iran, some convicted to death, for criticising the political regime or for defending civil rights."

Macovei mentioned the cases of five Ashura detainees charged with "mohareb" (war against God), the 33 Mothers of Mourning and supporters recently detained (almost all have been released), arrested members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, and other students who have been imprisoned. She asked, "What is the Commission or the Council going to do for the release of those imprisoned for political purposes? What funding does the Commission provide to human rights NGOs working on Iran?"

1150 GMT: The Standard Warning. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has again warned of those seeking to create divisions within Iranian society, announcing that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance will be more vigilant in monitoring and punishing publications over false information.

1140 GMT: Blowing Smoke. Unsurprising, given the political and economic contests around him, that President Ahmadinejad would put out this line today: he will have good news within days about Iran being able to produce enriched uranium of 20 percent (versus current levels of 3-4 percent), and this will make all in the Iranian nation very happy.

1025 GMT: For My Next Trick. It will be interesting to see if President Ahmadinejad can pull this off: amidst fears of inflation, he has proposed a rise of almost 25 percent in the Government budget, from $279 billion to $368 billion.

0910 GMT: We've posted a Sunday Special which we hope brings both news and a smile, "Iran and Israel: The Start of A Beautiful Friendship?".

0840 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Budget. The President has presented his budget proposals to Iran's Parliament, the Majlis. He summarised, "Emphasizing a reduction of dependence on oil revenues and an increase of non-oil revenues, with a focus on industry, agriculture and housing —these are among the main attributes of the bill," before making his pitch, "I hope that the bill will be passed with the cooperation of all lawmakers who solve the problems of the country and pave the way for the development of Islamic Iran."

Now the fun and bargaining begin, as lawmakers have ten days to present comments about the bill to the technical commissions of the Majlis.

0820 GMT: Choose a Side, Rafsanjani? Hashemi Rafsanjani's general statement on Saturday, which we analysed in our updates, has not been enough to satisfy some who want him to "choose sides" in the conflict.

The bigger news, however, however, is that the battle may not be over whether Rafsanjani backs the Supreme Leader --- the former President offered allegiance yesterday, albeit with coded reservations --- but whether he is for or against President Ahmadinejad. And there it appears that Rafsanjani has some potential allies pushing him towards the latter position.

For example, the "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has renewed its attacks on Rafsanjani with a Sunday editorial. What is just as significant, however, is that the news of those attacks is published in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, possibly to blunt them.

Khabar, reporting from Mehr News, also features a speech by Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the Judiciary and the brother of Ali (Speaker of Parliament) and Sadegh (head of Judiciary), praising Rafsanjani as a "great personality" but noting his three mistakes: 1) founding the Kargozaran party in the mid-1990s; 2) running for elections in 2005; 3) making ambiguous statements about Ahmadinejad during those elections.

Analysis? Come off the fence, Hashemi, and do so in support of others, not at the head of the movement.

0815 GMT: Persian2English has published a set of pictures from the "birthday ceremony" at Neda Agha Soltan's grave yesterday.

0810 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran reports that Mehdi Jalil-Khani, a writer, literary critic, and journalist from Zanjan, was arrested last week after a Ministry of Intelligence raid.

0805 GMT: We're be looking for further development on both the political and economic fronts today, separating facts from rumours as the pressure seems to build on President Ahmadinejad.

We have a special analysis which offers some caution, as an EA correspondent asks, "Should The Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?"

Comments

[Roe Lassie]

Did Rafsanjani really back the SL? I know it appears that way on first reading, but to say the responsibility to preserve the principles of the revolution rests on his shoulders, could be a way of warning him - 'if you fail it's your own fault'

I wonder if he thinks he really has a role to play, and can only play that from inside - that if he comes totally out in support of the opposition then he will either be killed, or at best ignored and so unable to influence things?

Interesting on the 19th June the SL said it was over, AM was the president, go home and get on with living under a dictatorship.
People didn't listen or obey.
This week he said he wanted 'the elites' to speak clearly and basically get off the fence.
Rafsanjani didn't listen or obey.

It would appear from that that he has no authority over either the people or the elites!

[Catherine]

Is anyone here aware of protests planned for 29 Jan, the 40th day of Montazeri's passing or 5 Feb, the 40th day of Ashura killings?

[Peace Maker]

According to Kalameh , Ahmaninejad's "brother" has severely criticized
Rahim Mashaei (AN's Chief of Staff), calling him an Israeli agent !

http://bit.ly/5cxlSe

[Greeny]

Bank troubles
Security forces break windows of a bank branch in Tehran
and
Police fire on bank customers in Ramhormoz, Khouzestan

http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12601

1.
Unconfirmed report: in order to scare angry customers in Bank Melli Khaled Estanboli branch in Tehran , police broke the bank’s windows and closed the branch at 12PM today. People were angry at lack of cash.

2.
A police officer shot an old man in the leg in Bank Melli branch at Emam Khomeini Street in Ramhormoz. The shooting took place in response to angry customers. The officer who shot the man was arrested and the bank was closed. This one is from a blog.

[Catherine]

BEIJING (Reuters) -- China's Communist Party mouthpiece has accused the United States of mounting a cyber army and a "hacker brigade," and of exploiting social media like Twitter or Youtube to foment unrest in Iran.
http://www.rferl.org/content/China_Paper_Slams_US_For_Cyber_Role_In_Iran_Unrest/1938087.html

They are sooooo pissed at Hillary! :-)

[Catherine]

U.S. seeks warriors in fight for Internet access (SF Chronicle)
24 January 2010

Under a little-known program, Congress has appropriated $20 million, with $30 million more to come, to fund projects that encourage freedom of Internet access wherever it's being denied.

The department is working on the matter in "more than 40 countries," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in a speech Thursday on "21st Century Statecraft." That includes "supporting the development of new tools that enable citizens to exercise their rights of free expression by circumventing politically motivated censorship."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/01/23/BUCF1BLQQR.DTL

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[Afshin]

I am somewhat surprised that from all the figures in Iran MASHAI is the one getting the least amount of attention. The only times we read of him is when he is being attacked by S.L and co.

From all the men he seems most out of place. Not much is written about him yet he seems to be important enough to be supported or attcked constantly.

[The Latest from Iran (24 Janua]

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[Catherine]

re 1520 GMT: Head-Spinner. OK, I’m going to have this one to smarter people to interpret. According to Kalemeh, Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President and former head of the Investigation Office of Presidency, has labeled Presidential aide and ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as an Israeli agent.

He has a "history", Scott:
http://enduringamerica.com/2010/01/24/iran-and-israel-the-start-of-a-beautiful-friendship/comment-page-1/#comment-23957
:-)

[Samuel]

Interesting article (pro-green of course) from tehranbureau which explores in part the anti-arab, anti-Islam racism and bigotry animating large parts of the green movement. Of course prof. Mohammad Marandi has already touched on this issue but it is instructive that even those in favor of the so-called reformists are becoming concerned about this. Hardly an event occurs in the streets of Tehran where the hand of Lebanon's Hezbollah is not seen, where Basij members are not described as having "Arabic accents" and where the general tone of rumours resemble nothing so much as classic European conspiracy theories concerning Freemasons and Jews.

To be sure the pro-Govt. side cooks up its own conspiracies but for a movement like the greenies which sees itself as modern, sophisticated and the enemy of obscurantism to be so saturated in ludicrous rumours and theories is pretty ironic.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/01/khiabani-on-the-arab-street.html

"...but his feelings had been formed through reading about Iranian democracy efforts and uncovering a darker side of anti-Arab racism. A trip down to Khuzestan and a chat with a few of the million or so Arab Iranians, which I recommend to any self-proclaimed Iranian nationalist, will produce similar complaints about Persian chauvinism."

"It can be heard, or read, in a significant amount of the popular discussion of the Green Movement. I recall a recent outburst proclaiming that the movement is for the "Iran of Cyrus [the Great], not the Iran of Arabia." That such a comment and its implications belie any understanding of the actual history of the region and the long relationship between Islam and different parts of Iranian territory is, I would hope, obvious. That such a comment is heard so often by Iranians of a particular milieu, however, is a sign of its resonance.

Iran has a long history of ethnic chauvinism intertwined with various intellectual efforts that attempted to understand the country's place in the world. Ahmad Kasravi, perhaps Iran's most famous twentieth-century historian, is a notorious example. Kasravi argued in the 1920s, for instance, that the language of Iranian Turks in Azerbaijan, Azeri Turkish, was actually a dialect of Persian. This was not only historically inaccurate, but also insulting to the millions of ethnically Turkish citizens of Iran. Yet Kasravi wrote that his argument was "good for Iran." The entire promotion of the "Aryan people" as a superior ur-race of Persia, which was an idea only introduced in Iran's intellectual circles in Reza Khan's time, and borrowed from now-debunked nineteenth century European research, is still deeply embedded in the national culture."

[Samuel]

"BEIJING (Reuters) — China’s Communist Party mouthpiece has accused the United States of mounting a cyber army and a “hacker brigade,” and of exploiting social media like Twitter or Youtube to foment unrest in Iran."

Good for China. It's about time someone stood up to the arrogant imperialists. Actually the truth is that the people of Afghanistan are doing a pretty good job giving the Americans the fight of their lives.

[Arshama]

@ Afshin

Attacking Rahim Mashaie might be the first step to attack AN, if we accept the plot story (I still have some doubts about that ;-)
In any case it would be a perfect way to put Mamutti under pressure, especially after Rahim Mashangi's really strange remarks about Noah's mismanagement.
Kalemeh, or rather False News, eagerly picked up this statement in order to fabricate an alleged "Noah Project", obviously organised by the Zionists.
I am not sure, if the authors of this article really believe in their rubbish, otherwise they must have been released from a looney bin recently...
http://www.kaleme.org/1388/11/04/klm-9383

[Afshin]

@ Arshema

Well thats the obivious and not the intresting part.

The intresting and the strange thing is that this man has said and done so many things which are out of place. Which just dont fit within the framework. The attacks on him are always from the conservative corner and not the reformist/ liberal corner. Also the the critic on him is not for his functioning but the LIBERAL GROUND BREAKING ANTI CONSERVATIVE things he says and does !!!

Things that bring him in the news are usually things NO REFORMIST would dare dream let alone say or do. Yet he says them and does them time and over. And this man is the closest person to A.N !!? Yet no real article over who this man is, what his bliefs are, what exactly his roles and motives are and what his agenda is !

He is the most out of place charachter in this saga and that makes him by far the most intresting, yet I can find so little about him.

For example you call him MASHANGI, why on the basis of what ??? All that I have heard or read on him is from the times that he has gotten in trouble with the concervaties over very LIBERAL acts which go beyond what any reformist dare say !

[kevina]

@Samuel 16:12

Yes, b/c the modern Chinese have http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibet" rel="nofollow">NO imperial ambitions at all.

Also, hate to burst your bubble, but the aftermath of June caught the US by surprise as much as others. Not to mention, we (the US) aren't nearly smart enough to do as the Chinese suggest. Like it or not, the Twitter/YouTube unrest was/is genuine.

[Bozorg]

Now the Greens are neo-Nazis. MKO-Zionist-skinheads. It's a good look.

I think Green supporters should be heartened by such red herrings. It means the movement's opponents lack substantive arguments, and are forced to resort to exaggeration and distortion.

While he doesn't seem to be an opponent of the Green Movement, Khiabani's vacuous piece does give ammo to the likes of Marandi and Samuel. Mr.Khiabani's article is a fantastic example of muscular prose masking anemic argumentation. His premises are supported by vague personal anecdotes, conceptual confusions - such as conflating ethnic nationalism with racism - and selective information.

Neither Gaza, Nor Lebanon, only Iran - is a political slogan. It expresses an objection to subsidizing foreign proxies at the expensive of the Iranian economy. By Mr.Khiabani's reasoning, Iranians are also anti-Slavic and anti-Mongoloid (Down with Russia, Down with China). In fact, they absolutely hate everyone, every race on the planet (Neither East, nor West, only Iran).

Characterizing these chants as racist is childish, and demonstrates a profound ignorance of their context.

With respect to Arab mercenaries participating in the suppression of protests, I don't understand why it's so implausible. Hezbollah and Hamas rely heavily on Iran's patronage. Without the IRI, they're in trouble - not just the military wing, but all of south Lebanon, which has relied on Iranian money to rebuild their infrastructure after the 2006 war with Israel. Billions of dollars that could have developed Iran's infrastructure! They have a real interest in making sure the opposition fails.

Moreover, using mercenaries, whether Arabs or Eskimos, would be expedient for IRI leaders because it provides them with plausible deniability in the face of atrocities against protesters. Also, it's widely known that the Revolutionary Guards train Hezbollah soldiers, both inside and outside of Iran.

Lebanese/Palestinian Arabs used for suppression? I don't have any evidence of it, but hardly a scenario that merits flippant dismissal.

Of course, there are plenty of Iranians that are willing to injure, kill and rape their compatriots. Sadly, the near entirety of violence has been Iranian on Iranian.

Many Iranians are proud of their pre-Islamic heritage, the one that today's IRI leaders denigrate by expunging from school textbooks, and characterizing as an Age of Ignorance.

The elimination of prejudice and discrimination is a major plank of the Green Movement.

It's nominal leader Karroubi ran a powerful campaign on protecting the rights of ethnic and religious minorities. The Greens have repeatedly voiced support for persecuted Baha'is and ethnic minorities such as the Kurds, an important population of the Iranian nation that has been brutally suppressed by the IRI.

Samuel, since you're such an avowed anti-racist, why didn't we hear a peep from you when a recent commenter made repeated racist remarks about Persians, using terminology similar to that of Saddam Hussein when he framed his war as Arab vs. Ajam (derogatory Arab word for Persians, commonly used throughout the Arab world)?

[Bosco]

Why did the arrogant imperialist empire of America have to meddle into other countries affairs by developing the Internet and fostering in an era of the free flow of ideas and information. Oh why did they create an environment where people living under an authoritarian regime can communicate with the outside world, and any intellectual midget could rant against its own government while praising these authoritarian governments. I have already written an email to the State department with my displeasure of them meddling when they asked twitter to change their maintenance hours.

[Samuel]

Bozorg,

"Samuel, since you’re such an avowed anti-racist, why didn’t we hear a peep from you when a recent commenter made repeated racist remarks about Persians, using terminology similar to that of Saddam Hussein when he framed his war as Arab vs. Ajam (derogatory Arab word for Persians, commonly used throughout the Arab world)?"

That anti-Persian comment was racist but so childish and incoherent that it did not merit a response. It sounded like a 8-9 year old.

[Samuel]

Bozorg,

"With respect to Arab mercenaries participating in the suppression of protests, I don’t understand why it’s so implausible."

You will notice that Pedestrian (no friend of the IRI) dismisses the whole Arab conspiracy theories in the comments section to the article in a somwehat exasperated tone.

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

It is not Rahim-Mashai's previous record that baffles me but why Davoud Ahmadinejad would launch an attack on one of his brother's closest aides.

S.

[Barry]

Scott

I once read of a chess player complaining about playing chess against novices. He much preferred to play against expert players.

The reason for this was that the amateurs made all kinds of unpredictable and irrational moves - their irrationality/unpredictably completely threw him off his game.

Perhaps Ahmadinejad is not as stupid as is popularly thought - or perhaps he is!! :)

Barry

[Bozorg]

Maybe she hasn't experienced what others have. I don't know.

But I doubt she would converse with so many Basijis with so many different accents during a protest. She may be describing her interaction with Basijis through the course of everyday life. By the way, she doesn't live in Iran. She visited recently, however, and wrote a post about how she was forced to stay home during the 16 Azar protests (the post is dated Jan.18th 2010). So presumably she doesn't have any first-hand experience of being confronted by Basijis during protests.

In any event, I've said my piece about this (non)issue.

[zee]

Samuel,
Your duties here are terminated. Report to the ministry immediately for your next assignment.

[Samuel]

"And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations."

Karroubi's next statement is the one that will truly schok the whole nation. It is my understanding that he will call for Montazeri to be reinstated as the successor to the Ayatollah Khomeini.

[Ali]

@ zee
Regarding your post #23, looks like Samuel already did:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=x37joi&s=4