Tuesday
Jan262010
Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?
Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 18:58 
An Iranian activist summaries this statement from Hashemi Rafsanjani, posted on Rafsanjani's official website, to a group of university professors of political science:Supreme Leader and Valayet-e-Faqih (clerical supremacy) is the best (system). Islam is the best religion. Islam and (the) Republic is best for Iran. When people spoke against him he was defending the rights of the people and the Supreme Leader.
Concerning (Mohammad) Yazdi (a staunch supporter of Ahmadinejad, who launched a scatching criticism of Rasanjani's ambiguity this week), he smells a conspiracy.
Our values and system can be a model for the whole world.
The activist bitterly assesses that Rafsanjani, following Ayatollah Khamenei's recent warning to "choose sides", has made his decision clear. I'm not so sure.
Rafsanjani, for all his vagueness, has always declared allegiance to the Iranian system and usually to the Supreme Leader. If there is significance in the statement, it may lay in Rafsanjani's challenge to Yazdi. Rafsanjani, given the recurrent threats to him and his family, is playing defence, but he may also be turning defence into offence by threatening revelations about Yazdi and his allies.
And those allies, of course, would be Ahmadinejad allies....
Reader Comments (20)
Based on the exerpt above, I agree with you Scott. I do not see a clear chosing of a "side" in his statements but do we really expect him to do so. This reads to me as more of the same vagueness that accompanies most if not all of his statements. By stating support of the IRI and the SL, this is just a continuation of his position as previously stated, so again to agree with Scott it seems to be more of the same.
Rafsanjani has recently stated multiple times that he stands with his July 09 Friday Prayer speech. In fact, videos and Persian transcripts of that day are on running on the hashemirafsanjani.ir website right now.
Seems like he stated his position that long ago, repeats same. A potential 'reconciliation mediator' (even if nobody wants one) must remain, unlike Khamenei, 'above' the fray. Hard to do when the regime is arresting and killing at will.
I'm starting to think that Rafsanjani is shooting for a solution where HE ends up as Supreme Leader himself! Not gonna happen, Raffers. Cut your losses and side with the people!
I cannot see any contradiction in his stated support for the IR system and his attempts as a respected statesman, Chair of two important bodies to help chart a centrist course which is sensible and good for Iran. The las thing Iranians of any political affiliation should do is to become subservient to US & Israeli hegemony in the form of some. 'sham'democracy' where the real strings of power will be pulled by Washington & Tel Aviv as at the time of the Shah. The IR system provides a balance between the religious & secular and for all the problems heaped upon it has given Iran the self confidence probably for the first time in its history to chart its own idependent course and fashion its own destiny & in the words of Rafsanjani provide an alternative model of governance for both Muslim & non-Muslim states in the developing world who have been ill served by aping the Western materialistic model that pretends to be democratic but where the elite are more devious & sophisticated in suppressing the popular will as clearly evidenced by their pursuit of the Iraq war despite clear majorities in both the US & the UK against it. Better the semi-democracy of the Islamic Republic than the dictatorship of the few on the many in the name of democracy
rezvan: Grow up.
Given his behaviour I think Rafsanjani is trying to hold out as long as possible so that he can side with the winning side. The greens nor the govt can expect any help from him.
Rezvan
In past times , there have been many many thousands, even millions of people like you who have supported a Regime or Government that was so passionately anti-Western that they also suppressed and imprisoned their own people - all in the name of and for the sake of satisfying their anti-western sentiment. These Regimes no longer exist. Their own people tore them down. You should think about the thousands of people that you have imprisoned recently - without proper or even any warrants. Iran is one big prison.
You should research what Habeas Corpus means http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habeas_corpus - and you may then understand the difference between free western societies and your Islamic prison.
Barry
Cassius
I think your last sentence hits the nail on the head. Neither side can really trust him, he always has, and he always will look after what is best for the Rafsanjani dynasty.
As I thought of this particular piece today I wondered what it was that really annoyed me about it, coz as Scott and others have already pointed out he's always been pro the SL etc.
The three things that rankled me were:
1. There was nothing for the people. In every other speech he has made the people could interrupt that he was at least not against them, with FP on 17th July being a clear encouragement to them. (Yazdi doesn't count for the people, I think that's a personal vendetta against AM & co)
2. It has always been reported that he wanted a different system from the one SL - perhaps a council of 3 or something. This speech seemed to be a gushing unrestrained support for the actual Valayet-e-Faqih system, as being the best in the world.
3. In an earlier speech about 2 months ago he said 'if the people don't want us, then we should go'. This speech seemed to say the exact opposite of that.
Now I recognise that in Iranian politics things are far more complex than my mind can comprehend, and I may have totally misunderstood what is going on - probably another few days will make it clearer again!!!!!!
Rafsanjani, just like the rest of looters in Iran, does not get it. He is right that the system of Islam+state +clerical supremacy has been good. He, however, conveniently forgets to mention that it has been good ONLY for mullahs, their relatives, and their circle of friends (Khodiha). It is clear these people would praise and support their benefactor, the clerical supremacy system, that has made them into millionaires. Rafsanjani cannot see that 90+% of Iranians branded as Na Khodi (not in the regime circle of friends) who have been crushed under the foot of clerical supremacy system.
Rafsanjani will continue to play both sides hoping that when music stops he will not be left standing in this game of musical chair. Astute politicians may last longer but they cannot weather hurricane. And this is a hurricane.
Rafsanjani had a golden opportunity to buy an insurance policy backed by people. He missed it by miles. If in that infamous Friday Prayer he stood defiant and bold and at the end when cameras were zooming on him and he could be heard across the world he held his hands out and said put the handcuffs on me, gag me if you wish but the truth is that people are right and regime is wrong. If he did that people would have forgiven him for all of his past bad deeds and he would have become hero of people. A hero who at the end could have saved himself and for sure his nation. Instead he chose to play it safe.
At the end it is NOT important what Rafsanjani sees as the right system of government or the right religion for Iranians because he has ONE VOTE. It is important to see which system of government and which religion or if religion+ government or clerical supremacy wins once we add all of those millions and millions of other ONE VOTE (s).
Predicted to win the 2010 Academy Award for "Best real life film of the year"
A short preview of this spectacular real life action film (unfortunately it was made too late for entry into the 28th Fajr International Theater Festival - else it would have won that as well)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMVOEX9rSCM&feature=player_embedded#
Who said AN and KH can't act??
Barry
I have read this statement both in Farsi and English...I think the Farsi version is a bit more clear. Not only do I think he is not siding with Khameneie, but also I think he is moving further left ward. In the Farsi version of this text, which can be found on rahesabz website (http://www.rahesabz.net/story/8788/), in the very last line he refers to the clerical supremacy as the axis of the Islamic Republic and says that if it is weakened, it will cause significant damage to the regime and one cannot expect a good future for the country. In my humble opinion, he is indirectly referring to Khameneie and all of his recent mistakes/hardliner stance and the fact that he is losing his once untouchable place as the supreme leader and that if he does not wake up soon, the entire republic and clerical supremacy will be in danger.
I don't think Rafsanjani is going to overtly show which side he is going to endorse, however, his tone in criticizing Yazdi (as you have already mentioned) and his last few sentences make me think that he has not changed his opinion and has definitely not taken a step towards khameneie's camp!
Looking at the bigger picture, however, one should always remember that all these turban wearing mullahs are from the same family and just represent the two ends of the same spectrum...They, and specifically Rafsanjani, will never feel bad for the people of Iran, nor do they, even for a split second, will think about people's interests or welfare. They only think about their own pockets and how much they can steal. The only reason that they are fighting each other right now is that one side (read Ahmadinejad and his supporters/camp, including the IRGC) are able to freely steal Iran's money/other resource and the other side (the so called moderate mullah's) can't do the same and has to watch quietly. Rafsanjani is the very person who appointed Khameneie as the supreme leader, he is the guy behind the arms trades during Iran-Contra, etc. He is just concerned that ahmadinejad et. al are freely looting everything and he can only watch!
Mils thank you for sharing your view, I think I see something similar. To me it sounds like Raffers is trying to say the SYSTEM is corrupt and he just wants people to know that HE wouldn't act like that if he were supreme leader, as if he is building up to later try to get into the position! He is thinking that this unrest is like some family squabble and if Cousin Khamenei gets disowned then Cousin Rafs can step into his place! Silly old mullahs, I wonder what they will do after it's all over and they have to just sit in their offices and actually do religion again.
Plz see RadioZamenh English - http://bit.ly/bre4l0
As I read the statement of Rafsandjani in Etemad Newspaper (matches with the English translation of Radio Zamaneh) he is only confirming his points made in the Friday prayer and beyond: Religion and the will of the people go together in the system of the IR.
As for his defence of the Velayate Faqih, it is obvious that he as one of the founders of the IR will not question it. However, one can see this defence also as a warning: if the leader falls now, the whole system crumbles and we will have a military dictatorship by the Sepah. We should bear in mind that this is a political transition not a revolution, it will be a long process of negotiations and manoeuvres until it reaches a goal AND there is always a high risk of an authoritarian backlash. In this process Raf is still an important figure because he can be a mediator between the opposition and the conservative elite around the Leader/the Larijanis etc. To maintain this position, he needs to continue what he is best in: staying vague and giving messages between the lines.
Rafsanjani is the most lier at all and oll of Mollahs. They must go out to support the Green Movement but they scared. Why? they are getting money of the regim for doing nothing.
Velayate Faghih is the most dirty System. Khamenei has about 10% of Oil income every day. 20% of every car saled in Iran, and whatever he takes. he has about xx Billions of Dollars in UK SWISS and othe part of the World.
Even Shah of iran had not such equipment like the Khamanei.
Rafsanjani belongs pistachio Fileds of iran and her Doughter has most of Immos in Iran. His Son has the Metro and Flight Agency Mahan.
It is all about Money and no Islam is the matter of fact. they are all corrupt.
islam is only the excuse.
This debate is absurd - Rafa has unequivocally sided with the greens - since his speech at Friday prayers criticising the regime crackdown and sympathizing with the greens discontent over the election - from which he has not departed one iota since - in fact he's gone futher and impliedly accepted a secular republic with his subsequent statement that 'if the people do not want us [i.e.the regime] we will have to go'.
Don't ever underestimate Rafa - he's a crafty politician who has outwited many adversaries in the past - and knows he can be most effective by maintaining his position inside the establishment - and the greens will benefit from support from important insiders as much as from the masses on the streets.
Rafa has risked his business interests by refusing to support the regime against the greens - his son can't even safely remain in Iran because of his public opposition to the regime's post election crackdown - but Rafa still remains the most important player in the resolution of Iran's political problems and the evolution of Iran's democracy - and no one knows this better than Shah Khamanei - who does not dare move against him.
Rafa still commands enormous support from the traditional army who have been run down by Khamenei in favour of the Guards - and who would be more likely to support him [Rafa] than the SL in the event of a showdown - a reality of which Khamanei is painfully well aware - and which at least circumscribes, if not dictates, his[SL's] future course of action.
Rezvan,
"...provide an alternative model of governance for both Muslim & non-Muslim..."--exactly what planet do you live on? Try talking to a Bahai about the rights of non Muslims in Iran. You will find they are bared from universities and governement jobs! In addition their religion is illegal in Iran and every house of worship was either confiscated or destroyed. Instead it is the old canard of those "evil jooos" and the "Great Satan" behind everything wrong in Iran. When are going to get it through your head that the theocracy in Iran has been a failure on so many levels. They are the root of the majority of the issues not these phantom enemies. This so called theocracy worships the system not the religion! In doing so they have violated almost every right guranteed to the people of Iran in the consititution! That means they violated Sharia which is God's law which in Islam is above the law of man! So you tell me who got it wrong?
By the way us non Muslims would never want to live under a theocracy that deems us Dhimmis reducing us to second class citizens! No thanks I will take secular law that says we are all equal regardless of faith!
Thx
Bill
I think the House of Raffers is conflicted. He has spent his entire adult life believing in and working for the mullah system in Iran. His children are in his face debating on behalf of the opposition. The IR has strenghthened and threatens the mullah system. Mix in the evolution of the educated Iranian youths desire of a freer democratic society and Raffers is between a rock and a hardspot. He is getting older, watching his cushy, predictable life being blown to hell. What should poor little old Raffers do???
If the man takes a definitive stand againsy the mullahs, he would be admiting personal failure along with making enemies, however, if he is to outspoken against the IR it could spell more serious trouble for himself and family members. I think it is clear he can't stomach AN, but at the end of the day, Raffers is looking out for himself and family members. He will most likely continue to mutter his way through this mess.
Rezan,
I am sure you are not Iranian, otherwise you would not claim this bullshit. Most of Iranian people reject Islam, so why we should have an islamic government?
To analyse the speech of rafsanjani ist waste of time, becuse he is and he was a founder of facist islamic regime, and he wont have any role in Irans future.
I'm with Scott on this one. I've read and reread this, and I just see nothing new in it, except for possibly the statement to Yazdi. To me, this is just a change in *emphasis*, which is something Rafs does all the time. He will emphasize the parts of his views that are in alignment with his intended audience, like many shrewd politicians. Here he is emphasizing his conservative bonafides, like the fact he thinks Valayet-e-Faqih is the best. He is simply not discussing his views, for example, about the imprisonment of opposition leaders, or about the crackdown on free media. I suspect that if he did, we'd find that there is no change in his position.
There is a temptation for all of us to watch for movement amonst the various post-election "players" in Iran, which is natural. However, I dont suggest we are so sensitive that if someone merely puts a different stress on something, or rephrases themselves differently one time, that we conclude that they've wholesale changed their point of view. Best to be careful about that.
An interesting analysis of Rafsanjani`s speech at Qom University
http://dadiirandoust.mihanblog.com/post/17