Tuesday
Jan262010
The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up....
Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 19:43 
2200 GMT: Closing Notes (Until Tomorrow). Big news is that, despite attempts by some analysts to declare "Much Ado About Nothing", Mehdi Karroubi has not only clarified his challenge today, not only maintained it, but declared that he will soon be extending it by setting out his demands on the electoral, legal, and political processes.Elsewhere, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has maintained his own defiance by appointing aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the target of both "reformist" and "conservative" opposition, as the chief of the President’s youth advisors. This is an addition to Mashai’s positions of President’s deputy for affairs of Iranians living abroad, special advisory of President in oil affairs, head of assembly for free economic zones, and the chairman of the cultural commission in the cabinet.
Mohammad Taqi Rahbar, the head of the clergies committee in Parliament, is not impressed, however: he has criticised Ahmadinejad’s special relationship with Mashai, declaring that the President is sacrificing the regime and Government for Mashai’s favour.
NEW Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?
NEW Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
NEW Latest Iran Audio: Hossein Karroubi on His Father’s Statement (25 January)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?
And now your nominee for bravest/most ridiculous sentence of the week: the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati says: "We (the Guardian Council) held the recent election without the tiniest problem."
2030 GMT: Going after the Reporters. Two senior members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Koohyar Goodarzi and Mehrdad Rahimi, have been accused of "mohareb" (war against God).
1930 GMT: We've posted a special snap analysis of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement today, which may or may not indicate he has "chosen a side" in the current conflict.
1745 GMT: Rumour of Day (3). Saham News claims that Mohammad Jafar Behdad, the political deputy of President Ahmadinejad’s bureau, has been sentenced to jail on the basis of two accusations by Ali Larijani and one by Hashemi Rafsanjani.
The charge is that Behdad wrote in an online article, deleted 50 minutes later, that those who are to blame for the killing of protesters are the persons who called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the afternoon of the elections to congratulate him, causing his delusion and subsequent decision for instigating the people to revolt. That claim points at Larjiani who, according to politicians like Ali Reza Zakani, contacted Mousavi with the news of "victory".
1740 GMT: Rumour of Day (2). Rah-e-Sabz follows up the story, linked to our analysis of Mehdi Karroubi's initiative, that former President Mohammad Khatami wrote a letter to the Supreme Leader, asking for Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention to stop the illegal activities and disregard of citizen rights of the regime.
The website reports, from an "informed source", that the Supreme Leader rejected the analysis and recommendations. It adds, dampening down the "recogntion of the President" story and any serious Karroubi-Khatami split, that rumours of Khatami criticising the reformists or endorsing the legitimacy of the government are untrue and are being spread by the regime to cause divisions in the Green movement.
1730 GMT: Rumour of Day (1). Rah-e-Sabz claims that the son of Ali Larijani was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations. He was allegedly released 24 hours later when his identity was established.
1620 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Response: It's All About the Internet. Not sure if this is really going to answer the challenge put forth in the last 24 hours....
Ayatollah Khamenei has declared in a speech on state television, "The Americans have said that they have allocated a $45 million budget to help them to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran via the Internet....This decision shows the height of the enemy's frustration. They have spent tens of billions of dollars in the past (in confronting Iran), but have achieved no results."
Leave aside the fact that the facts are a bit off-the-mark (the US Senate voted in July to allocate $50 million to expand American broadcasts and get around Internet restrictions). Can't see how Mehdi Karroubi's "Mr Khamenei" is a product of Washington's schemes.
1610 GMT: Karroubi Makes It Clear. We've posted an update on our special analysis, with Mehdi Karroubi's speech today bearing out our interpretation. It's not only that he challenged both the Government and the Supreme Leader yesterday; he's going to keep doing it.
Get ready for an escalation in the conflict.
1310 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. I've stayed away from the "Western" media coverage of the Karroubi statement, even though a lot of it is still wrong over the recognition of Ahmadinejad: this has been a confusing story and I was well off-the-mark yesterday afternoon.
That said, The Washington Post has screwed up well beyond the norm in this item in its World Digest: "Opposition's Mehdi Karroubi softens stance on Iran's leadership". It condenses an Associated Press story to the basics: "In a major shift, a senior opposition figure announced that he now recognizes Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the head of Iran's government while standing by his assertions that the presidential election was rigged....Mehdi Karroubi's new position is a retreat from his statements after the June 12 election, when he insisted that Ahmadinejad's government was illegitimate."
The original AP story by Akbar Dareini was muddled and missed important points, such as Karroubi's use of "Mr Khameini"; however, it had key passages such as, "The elder Karroubi deliberately refrained from using the word 'president' in order not to give full legitimacy to Ahmadinejad's administration." Its claim, from Karroubi's son Hossein, that the cleric "believes Ahmadinejad's government was on the verge of collapse" is softened in the World Digest to the opposition is "seeking Ahmadinejad's removal".
1210 GMT: Not Recognising Ahmadinejad. An EA reader reports that German and Swedish media are still dominated by line that Mehdi Karroubi recognised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as "President", so these related comments from Zahra Rahnavard (see 0640 GMT), the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, deserve repetition:
We neither recognise Ahmadinejad’s administration [as legitimate government] nor compromise but we honestly are following on people’s rights and demands....
We have put our hearts as our shields and we are ready for any bullet, attack or assassination.
1030 GMT: Remain Calm, All is Well (with Bonus Cultural Reference). Press TV puts out the reassurance this morning:
Bank Melli Iran (BMI) is the largest bank in Iran and across the Islamic world, considering its total assets of around $54bn, a BMI official says. The total assets of BMI at the end of second quarter of 1388 (September, 2009) have increased to US $59 billion, the head of financial department at BMI, Hojatollah Ghasemi, said Monday, denying reports that the bank is bankrupt.
Ghasemi said that BMI has no debt to Iran's central Bank, adding that the bank has no delay in repaying its international commitments.
Forgive me, but when I read the story, given the recent flurry of rumours of the demise of Iran's banks, I made this cross-cultural jump:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro[/youtube]
0905 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning have called for the immediate release of Parvaneh Maddah-Raad, who has been detained since late December. Maddah-Raad was arrested when she intervened to protest the beating of a young demonstrator at the weekly gather of the Mothers of Mourning in Laleh Park.
0900 GMT: We've posted the audio of Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi, talking to BBC Persian about his father's statement.
Also, in response to readers who are asking about the reasons for our current analysis of Karroubi's challenge to the Supreme Leader and Government, we are posting an update on our special analysis.
0734 GMT: The Regime Fights Over Newspaper. Now it appears that Government officials can't even see straight on which publications should be banned. According to Ayande News, Tehran Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi summoned officials of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance officials. He declared that he would act against media spreading false news, then criticized the Ministry for arbitrarily banning some of the media while others were openly violating laws by spreading lies and offending top members of the Government and regime.
0730 GMT: On the Economic Front. Not even Press TV tries to spin this news:
Iran's labor and social affairs minister says the country has failed to decrease the jobless rate to below 7 percent due to "the crises and global sanctions."
On Monday, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami told the Fars News Agency that the unemployment rate is about 11 percent.
The Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (2005-2010) had obliged the government to bring the jobless rate to under 7 percent by the end of the plan.
"A seven percent unemployment rate had not been achieved, as a goal, in the Fourth Five-Year Development Plan, due to the crises and global sanctions," Sheikholeslami said, without elaborating.
The Statistics Center of Iran announced that the national unemployment rate rose to 11.3 percent in the third quarter of the calendar year (ended December 21, 2009), up 1.8 percent compared to the previous year.
0640 GMT: Rahnavard on "Legitimacy". Amidst the discussion of Mehdi Karroubi's statement, Mir Hossein Mousavi has been silent. However, his wife, Tehran University academic Zahra Rahnavard, has not.
In an interview with Fereshteh Ghazi, Rahnavard makes clear that Mousavi does not and will not recognise the Ahmadinejad Government.
0635 GMT: Here's one to raise the eyebrows on the international front. The three-day visit to Russia by Saeed Jalili, Secretary of the National Security Council, due to start today, has been postponed "indefinitely".
0630 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's Intervention. We made an error in translation when reporting the cleric's latest criticism of the regime yesterday. His demand of the Government was that it should "prohibit" the bad and undesirable in its actions.
0600 GMT: We will spend today seeing just how important yesterday's Karroubi statement, on Mr Khamenei and the "President", is. That will depend not only on whether Karroubi modifies the declaration or lets it stand but also on the reactions of others. Key participants like Mir Hossein Mousavi have not emerged; perhaps more importantly, there is still confusion and division in the Green movement(s) over Karroubi's move.
Some activists take the line that the statement is a concession, if not to Ahmadinejad by "recognising" him as President, then to the Supreme Leader by acknowledging his legitimacy. That opinion is sometimes linked to the assessment that Karroubi, like the regime, wants to avoid a bloody confrontation on 22 Bahman (11 February). Others, however --- and this is the current EA line, after my initial confusion and mis-interpretation --- see this as a challenge to both Government and Ayatollah Khamenei.
For now, we'll stand by the analysis that we debated and then put out last night, watching for the follow-up --- from Karroubi, from opposition leaders like Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, from the regime, and from the Green movement(s) --- today before making any revisions.
tagged Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami, Akbar Dareini, Ali Larijani, Ali Reza Zakani, Ayande News, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Bank Melli, Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, Fereshteh Ghazi, Hojatollah Ghasemi, Hossein Karroubi, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Koohyar Goodarzi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mehrdad Rahimi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Taqi Rahbar, Mothers of Mourning, Parvaneh Maddah-Raad, Saeed Jalili, Washington Post, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami, Akbar Dareini, Ali Larijani, Ali Reza Zakani, Ayande News, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, Bank Melli, Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, Fereshteh Ghazi, Hojatollah Ghasemi, Hossein Karroubi, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Koohyar Goodarzi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mehrdad Rahimi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, Mohammad Taqi Rahbar, Mothers of Mourning, Parvaneh Maddah-Raad, Saeed Jalili, Washington Post, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (26)
important news alert: http://balatarin.com/topic/2010/1/26/1004262
Zahra Rahnavard, wife of Mousavi declares in an interview with roozonline: we will not recognize the new government and we wont back down. no deals behind the scenes.
"We will spend today seeing just how important yesterday’s Karroubi statement, on Mr Khamenei and the “President”, is. That will depend not only on whether Karroubi modifies the declaration or lets it stand but also on the reactions of others. Key participants like Mir Hossein Mousavi have not emerged; perhaps more importantly, there is still confusion and division in the Green movement(s) over Karroubi’s move."
Please see quotes from Mousavi FB - http://tl.gd/5abaq
Re: 7:30
The unemployment number is under-estimated due to a recent but very convenient changed in government accounting practices that includes people who work one hour per week as employed. It also counts people who are drafted for a 2-year mandatory military service as employed. That is AN fuzzy Math.
@ Megan
I found this on http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/352838376/ayande-report-on-over-4-years-of-an-administration
Ayande report on over 4 years of AN Administration :
- 47% under poverty line.
- 75% of all projects started remain unfinished&halted.
- Average inflation of 20%.
- Budget submitted one month late.
- Welfare under $20 aftr promising $70 during elections.
- Gov employees raises granted days before the election are now deduced in installments on paychecks.
- Failure to submit progress reports & answer to legal authorities for the past 4 years.
- No inflation-adjusting raises of Gov employees salaries & benefits.
http://ayandenews.com/news/17855/
Is that all the article syas? Also what is the context of this report - is this the reults of an official review carried out by the Iranian version of a government accountability office?
@ 0730 GMT
To second Megan, here is an article by DW Persian describing phony jobs and hidden unemployment: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4235110,00.html
And here a revealing analysis of published statistics: http://djavad.wordpress.com/2009/05/05/what-is-wrong-with-irans-unemployment-data/
Rah-e Sabz is claiming that Ali Larijani’s child (does not say son or daughther) was arrested during Ashura demonstration.
It says that (s)he was held for 24 hours and was released once the authorities became certain of her/his identity. It also claims that (s)he was arrested during Qods Day demonstrations too.
It says that children of other MPs have been arrested too.
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/8762/
Some time back I asked if the "Death to the dictator" chant referred to AN or KH. People concluded that it started meaning AN then moved on to KH. Here's a time line that traces the use of this chant and also draws the conclusion that when directed at the SL it doesn't really mean what it says. Any thoughts on this from others here?
http://www.iwpr.net/?apc_state=hfafirn359563&l=en&s=f&o=359565
Mehdi Karoubi: I will never compromise over people’s rights!
http://theflyingcarpetinstitute.wordpress.com/2010/01/26/mehdi-karoubi-i-will-never-compromise-over-people%E2%80%99s-rights/
Once a bank has to "reassure" customers, it's already over.
Karroubi has retreated. That's it. All this over-analyzing of his statement and how western mediated reported it is pointless. The opposition "leaders" have shown their weakness by recognizing the government. They want to compromise with a government that doesn't know the meaning of the term. I've spoken to a few people in Iran, and they've said many are disappointed but they will continue on.
Karroubi has given up, Karroubi has not given up...
The will of the people is not based on what the politicians decide. The people did not take to the streets because Mousavi took a stance it was the other way round.
The fact is people are discontented with this governments internal policies and they want a change real bad.
Catherine, to me that article seemed a little like Bill Clinton answering "it depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is".
Marg Bar Dictator means death to the dictator. There's two ways that can go: either Khamenei stops being a dictator, or Khamenei stops being [at least in Iran anyway!]. It refers to anyone who is being dictatorial. If the shoe fits... Part of the genius of it is that Khamenei can't admit that it refers to himself without admitting that he is, in fact, the dictator in question!
This article also forgets to count in its timeline the chant, "Marg Bar Toh", which means "death to you" and apparently also refers to anyone being fascist.
Marg Bar Toh has a song that goes with it but I haven't seen a translation of the words. The song probably explains more explicitly who the "Toh" [you] is.
Scott,
Rah-e Sabz (Jaras) has the following about Khatami’s recent letter to SL:
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/8781/
It says:
Awhile ago Khatami wrote a letter to SL detailing the illegal activities by the regime and it’s disregard for citizens’ rights and asking for such activities to stop and warning that the continuation of such activities could have serious consequences.
Over the past few days there have been a lot of rumours about Khatami’s letter and Jaras has managed to obtain some information for an informed source, whose name will be withheld for security reasons.
The source says that after studying the letter, SL has disagreed with Khatami’s analysis and his recommendations. The source adds that the rumours about Khatami criticising the reformists or mentioning anything about the legitimacy of the government are all untrue and part of a psychological war.
This informed source says the faction that is in power is spreading these lies and psychological war in order to create rifts between reformists leader and also to create distrust amongst the population towards the reformists leaders. The aim is to dishearten most of the Green Movement and to cause another part of the movement to become radicalized so that the regime can crush them.
According to Saham News Mohammad Jafar Behdad, political deputy of AN's bureau, has been sentenced to jail on behalf of 2 accusations by Ali Larijani and 1 by Raffers. Apparently Behdad had written in an online article, deleted 50 minutes later, that those are to blame for the killing of young people who called Moussavi on the afternoon of the elections to congratulate him, which caused his delusion and subsequent decision for instigating the people to revolt. Saham News refers this statement to Larijani, quoting pro-govt sites after the elections: http://sahamnews.org/?p=603
Obviously battles in the hardline camp are far from being over.
Saham News interviews Karoubi’s son:
http://news.gooya.com/politics/archives/2010/01/099621.php
He says that Karoubi does not accept the legitimacy of the government, but we have to accept the reality that after all the cheating, the Council of Gaurdians approved the elections and despite all the problems with the vote, the leader approved it too and now we have a person who has control of the budget and is running the executive (he is careful not to call him president, instead he says that Ahmadinejad is the head of government after the SL and Guardians’ approval).
Scott,
I love that video at 10.30:-)
Green you are spot on.
Bosco I disagree with you, our contacts in Iran think the exact of opposite of you - they think that Karroubi made a very clever speech - he did not recognise AM as president, but as head of the gvt. That's very different and a very clever choice of words.
Scott what was the debate on here a few weeks/months ago when you referred to AM as president - or have I remembered that totally wrongly?!
From Parleman News:
http://www.parlemannews.ir/index.aspx?n=7857
In response to Mohammad Yazdi’s recent attack on him, Rafsanjani says he thinks there is a conspiracy going on. He said he will be writing about “issues” regarding Yazdi during the time Emam [Khomeini] was alive, the meeting of the Assembly of Experts when selecting the new leader [Khamenei] and his time as Judiciary Head.
[He does not say whether this writing will be made public, but seems to be threatening to make it public: the article is titled: Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani will be revealing some behind the scene details about sheik Mohammad Yazdi]
Greeny,
Some additional information about hardliner Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, who denies the republican parts of the IRI. He has all reasons to ignore people's will, especially when it comes to business. In 2008 Abbas Palizdar uncovered the self-service mentality of high ranking mullahs, including Yazdi and his son: http://tinyurl.com/yeno2v2
Another ayatollah went to Khamenei, [Abbas] Paliz[d]ar said, and said he wanted to build a law university for women in Qom. After receiving a license, he then asked to be given the Dena Tire company, a state-owned firm with a market value estimated at $600 million.
The ayatollah was directed to the minister of Industries, Mohammad-Reza Nematzadeh, who offered to sell him the company for the discounted price of $126 million. ...
The Dena Tire company wasn’t Ayatollah Yazdi’s only payoff, Paliz[d]ar revealed. He also wrote to the minister of Industries asking that his unemployed son, Hamid, be given control over the lucrative timber exports from the Caspian forests.
“At the time, Hamid Yazdi was a director of the Judiciary; in other words, he wasn’t even out of work,” Palizar told the students. “Thus he plundered the Caspian forests. And then they went and arrested the local people who had perhaps stored only enough wood for their fireplace,” he added. The arrests led to “protests outside the prisons.”
Palizdar was sentenced to 10 years, and 47 % of Iranians live below poverty line.
Islamic Republic, o holy land of milk and honey...
Iran Labor Report: Workers block road after management’s decision to cannibalize plant!
http://theflyingcarpetinstitute.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/iran-labor-report-workers-block-road-after-management%E2%80%99s-decision-to-cannibalize-plant/
via
http://iranlaborreport.com/2010/1/bafteha.html
Catherine,
“Is that all the article says?”
The introduction says: Seven months of turmoil following presidential election with heavy toll on the regime and people and anxiety in the society has left these questions unanswered.
Also there are two additional challenges:
- Interest rate banks are charging is exceeding 20%
- Official cancellation of projects that were active prior to presidential lection, e.g. Pardis Freeway or Tehran-Shiraz railroad (Dr. Etaat also talked about these phony projects by AN government as election ploy in his interview with Seda v Sima)
“Also what is the context of this report – is this the results of an official review carried out by the Iranian version of a government accountability office?”
The article says an economists had submitted those questions/challenges and wants government response. It does not say who the economist is.
Frankly, I do not think there is any oversight. You see in Islamic Republic if you are a high level official in the executive, legislative or judicial branch you do whatever you are pleased. If anyone challenges you if they are Khodi (in your circle of friends) you bribe them and give them a piece of the action to keep them quiet. If they are Not Khodi (outside of your circle of friends) you harass, arrest or assassinate them.
Thanks so much Megan for the extra info. What disaster!
Khodi = inside? As in translations from Persian that talk about certain people being 'inside' and others 'outside' the system/regime - for example.
Catherine,
Yes, Kodi are people inside of regime circle. And those who are considered outside of regime circle of friends are branded as Na Khodi (not Khodi) or enemies of the regime.
Arshama, I saw in longer versions of Palizdar's conference that when asked about Rafsanjani, he said he'd need a whole conference to talk about (the corruption in) his family.
His main error, not to have his ticket to flee in his pocket. He seems to have been arrested only a few days after the video went online ?
This paragraph in the article in light of elections : "Many observers believe that Khamenei will dump Ahmadinejad next spring, when his first four-year term as president is up."
So what happened ? Did all those mentioned and maybe those not, simply put on the pressure to save their skins ? Khamenei had no choice.
Rafsanjani must have some really bad things on Yazdi, worse than corruption.
Pessimist,
Sorry, I did not read the whole article. The assessment you quote is completely wrong. According to political experts, this was a move of AN (who condemned Palizdar afterwards) against hardliners and Rafsanjani to take over business. Did not find the relevant article, but here is a timeline of the events: http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2009/march/10//a-revealer-against-the-conservatives.html
In any case Raffers is in no way better than all the others, and the actual battle runs between AN and him, according to te expert Siamak Shojaee, describing the IRI economic situation on VOA (Do rooz-e avval programme, 24 Jan)
http://www1.voanews.com/persian/programs/tv/60789262.html