The Latest from Iran (13 April): Getting Beyond the Sideshow

1830 GMT: Economy Watch. It is reported that, in the "slow death" of domestic production because of Chinese-made goods, more than 75% of Iran's imports are now consumer items.

1815 GMT: Rubbing It In. The President's "establishment" opposition are crowing over his supposed retreat over the subsidy cut and spending proposals: they claim that Ahmadinejad has begged the Parliament to let him have a free hand in implementing the plan.

Iran: Mousavi to Students “Spring is Unstoppable”
The Latest from Iran (12 April): Signals from Mousavi & Rafsanjani?

1800 GMT: The 15 June Dispute. Some Government officials have been saying, rather curiously, that the mass marches of 15 June, three days after the election, had been granted a permit by the authorities.

Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province, has issued a denial, carried in Khabar Online: there was no permit for the "fitna" (sedition) rally.


1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Emad Bahavar has told his wife that he is still being kept in solitary confinement.

1140 GMT: Labour Watch. More than 50 workers of the Abadan municipality have gone on strike to protest over more than three months of unpaid wages.

1130 GMT: The Latest on Scholarship. Rah-e-Sabz reports that a Government-sponsored conference on "Nuclear Iran" at Elm-o-Sanat University was boycotted. Two university has also expelled two more professors.

1110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist is reporting that Abdollah Momeni, a leading member of the student organisation Advar-e Takhim Vahdat, has been summoned to court and rearrested.

Momeni has been out on $800,000 bail. Last week he was a prominent participant in a meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1040 GMT: Militarising the Judiciary? Rah-e-Sabz is pondering the significance of a General Muhammad Bagher-Zolghadr being nominated as the new cultural, social, and anti-crime deputy of Iran's judiciary.

Last September, Zolghadr outlined the notion of “soft war” in a speech: “In a hard war, the line between you and the enemy is clear, but in a soft war there is nothing so solid. The enemy is everywhere.”

1030 GMT: Handing Out Justice. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has assured a Parliamentary commission that, "if culpable, even my relatives would be persecuted".

I don't think this means that Ali Larijani should watch his back. Instead, Sadegh Larijani is trying to fend off growing pressure for the prosecution of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi over corruption allegations.

1025 GMT: The Battle Within. While we wait for confirmation of the reports, in Press TV (see 1010 GMT) and Khabar Online, that the President has backed down in the fight over the subsidy plan, more signs that all is not well within the dominant "principlist" faction:

As the members of the Principalist fraction of Iranian Parliament Majlis have expressed different views on the actions taken by the faction’s presidium, Majlis speaker Ali Larijani is to settle their dispute.

....Mohammad Ali Bozorgvari a member of the Principalist fraction of the Parliament delivered a speech last week blasting the members of fraction's presidium and Larijani in particular. He asked them to give clear answers to those criticisms.

Significantly, the report is in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

1015 GMT: When Sideshows Get Silly. Here is one reason why we were somewhat dismissive of press coverage of the first day of the Obama nuclear summit (see 0850 GMT), which converged on the line that China was ready to back a US-led sanctions resolution in the UN. For months, Beijing has played the cautious game of appeasing American sentiments by saying, Yes, We'll Talk, while in complementary statements saying, No, We Don't Do Anything Drastic.

So, hours after reporters fed by US officials were declaring Washiington-Beijing unity on the sanctions path, this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry: "We believe that the Security Council's relevant actions should be conducive to easing the situation and conducive to promoting a fitting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations."

Bless 'em, Reuters are still trying to wedge that tactically convoluted statement into their Monday story-line that All is Going Well: "[The] comments appeared to leave scant doubt that Beijing accepts that fresh Security Council action over Iran is coming, even if China wants room to negotiate over the sanctions proposed by Western powers."

1010 GMT: A Presidential Subsidy Climbdown? Rooz Online offers a lengthy analysis, "Continuation of Conflict Dangerous", but Press TV may have put up the signal that the battle is ending with a Parliamentary victory.

The website reports that, at the start of the Majlis session today, Deputy Speaker Mohammad Hossein Abu Torabi announced, "In a meeting with a group of Iranian MPs, the President has agreed to facilitate the implementation of the subsidy bill without introducing a complementary bill."

That would seem to indicate that Ahmadinejad has given up his attempt to get $40 billion in extra spending from subsidy cuts, rather than the $20 billion authorised by Parliament.

1000 GMT: Now to Important Matters --- Karroubi. The latest statement of Mehdi Karroubi has slipped under the radar, with his meeting last Thursday with the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party only emerging on his website yesterday.

Karroubi criticised the recent speech of Ahmadinejad in Azerbaijan: “The language used is by no means appropriate for a president....[It is] an insult to thousands of years of Iranian civilisation.” He dismissed the President's attempt to focus attention on the US v. Iran. American threats against the country “were not something new” and, in the event of any attack, “we will all defend the country”:

Creating enemies is not a big deal. A big deal would be to respond to threats with reason and logic so that the public opinion of nations and [the opinion] of governments are drawn towards the truth such that threats are eliminated and turned into opportunities.

Bringing attention back to the domestic front, Karroubi warned of the consequences if Ahmadinejad continued putting down the Parliament and its importance: “If he degrades the Majlis today, tomorrow, the Parliament will lose all respect,” Denouncing the treatment of political prisoners and arguing for the respect of women's rights, he asserted, “We demand the implementation of the Constitution and stand even more firm than ever before.”

0900 GMT: Economy Watch. On another public-relations, Press TV tries to whip up some hope over Iran's international economic position:

Brazil has opened its doors to Iranian businessmen and welcomes any project, which will help the economy and encourage trade between the two countries.

"Iran is a big country in the region and enjoys considerable capacity to develop cooperation with Brazil," Brazilian Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Minister Miguel Jorge said Monday in Tehran after visiting his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Mehrabian.

0850 GMT: OK, let's deal with the sideshow now so we can concentrate on other matters later in the day.

The "nuclear summit" in Washington, at least for the mainstream press, turned into an All About Iran festival. Laura Rozen, one of the best journalists for inside information in the US capital, turned herself into a spokesperson for that line: "On summit sidelines, many conversations about Iran". That's courtesy of a "Washington Gulf expert" --- “With the Chinese, Russians and Turks, folks that need to come along on the sanctions track", the show is all about a forthcoming UN resolution --- and National Security Council staffer Jeff Bader: "The President in the meeting made clear the sense of urgency, and the Chinese made clear that they are prepared to work with us." (Bader is also probably the unnamed "US official" in other reports optimistically pointing to China's support.)

Of course Mahmoud Ahmadinejad didn't take this lying down, not with the opportunity to substitute US v. Iran for any internal matters. From his measured description of foreign leaders as "retarded people" to his call on the UN to investigate how the US Government used the 11 September attacks to set up wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it was a red-letter day for finger-pointing by the Iranian President.

Ahmadinejad's declarations are propped up by Iranian state media by other signs that the sanctions hammer won't fall on Tehran: there is a speech outside the summit from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that there is "no evidence indicating that Iran's nuclear activities include efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon".

Comments

[Barry]

I am not sure what economic assistance Brazil can give to Iran - they are unable and incapable of solving their own problems in Rio de Janeiro. Terrible slums and poverty.

Barry

[Catherine]

Info on the subsidy reform reform bill bruhaha in English:
Military Agencies Warn Against Majlis-Administration Row
Continuation of Conflict Dangerous
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/april/13//continuation-of-conflict-dangerous.html

[Arshama]

Scott,

@ 1000 GMT: Now to Important Matters — Karroubi

Is it possible that you are making fun of us proud Greenies ;-)

Anyway, we are still awaiting all the inside news on baseball, stock car racing, and country music ...

Have a nice stay!

Arshama

[Catherine]

RE 1000 GMT: Karroubi criticised the recent speech of Ahmadinejad in Azerbaijan

That's back when AN limited himslf to calling Obama an amateur. I wonder what Karroubi has to say about the 'stupid retards' remark :-)

[Catherine]

RE: the Chinese Foreign Ministry: “We believe that the Security Council’s relevant actions should be conducive to easing the situation and conducive to promoting a fitting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations.”

Look, everyone has known for quite a while that China is only going to participate in the discussions on sanctions so that it can water them down a much as possible and then abstain when they come to a vote. Total sideshow.

[AJ]

This headline from Fars News is one for the books. It is currently on the front page of their website (in Farsi):

"General Vahidi in a ceremony honoring the military's heroes: CIA says Iran is capable of exporting ballistic missiles"

It seems that they don't even trust themselves anymore. He doesn't say "we are capable of exporting ballistic missiles" he says "The CIA says!" As Jon Stewart would imitate him: "We know you don't care about what we say, but the Great Satan's intelligence , the CIA, says we're super awesome!"

http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8901240939

[Scott Lucas]

Arshama,

No "making fun" at all --- at least, if there's a gentle chiding needed, it should be of me. I saw some references to this meeting yesterday but couldn't place where and when Karroubi had make the statement.

S.

[Catherine]

Persianbanoo tweets:
Governor of Tehran said today there was a rally permit issued for the June 15, 09 march - If a permit was issued for 6/15 march, why many were sentenced to prison for participating in the June 15 march - So far in most sentences issued for political prisoners 1 yr is given for participation in the Jun 15 march

Is this true - did the Governor of Tehran make this statement somewhere in the Iranian press today?

[Catherine]

Minorities Watch

Kurdish Porters: Lives on the Line
April 12, 2010

A few days after a report by Human Rights groups about the shooting deaths of tradesmen across the Kurdish border was published, new reports indicating at least four shootings of porters over the Nowruz holidays in Iranian Kurdistan have surfaced. Abject poverty and lack of investments in Kurdistan are the main reasons many people do smuggling. Local porters or “Koul bar” in Kurdish are a phenomena of current day Kurdistan.

Last year (ending in March 20) was a year with at least 90 shooting deaths of the tradesmen and scores of injuries according to the Kurdish Human Rights groups. In the first fifteen days of the new year, four tradesmen have already been shot by security forces in different crossing points.

Full report: http://iranlaborreport.com/?p=411

[Arshama]

Scott,

Pardon for misunderstanding you. I really wondered, if the news about AN bowing to the parliament in the subsidy issue (if confirmed) would not be more important than Karroubi's statement of last Thursday.
As to the latter, especially to AN's insulting speach in Urumiyeh, Khodnevis has published an appropriate comment: this language of the gutter had been common to Chaleh Meydan and Darvazeh Ghar (two slums in southern Tehran) so far, but AN has proven that the presidency can also be a place for it and for a "Shaban Beemokh" (Brainless Shaban, the infamous knifer and ringleader during the putsch of 1953) http://tinyurl.com/ya68js7

Nothing to add to Khodnevis ;-)

Arshama

[Arshama]

Catherine,

The tweeters are right, Kaleme and Khabar Online (the latter citing Parleman News) have published the news about Tehran's Governour confirming the legality of the 25 Khordad (15 June 2009) rally, both pointing to the fact that the Government had claimed the opposite and that protesters were imprisoned on behalf of that:
http://www.kaleme.com/1389/01/24/klm-16406 / http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-54651.aspx

Another retreat of AN?

Arshama

[Rev. Magdalen]

A permit either exists or it doesn't! If it exists, let's see it. If it's date stamped, let's let reformists test the ink's age to see if it was just printed up last night! And regardless, let's let the people in prison for attending the rally out at once! What a "shocking mix-up"! Surely though it means we'll be getting a lot of our friends back this very day, right? RIGHT??

[Rev. Magdalen]

I'm really beginning to wonder how much influence the Leveretts have on Tehran. Just yesterday one of their fans was insisting to me that the Supreme Leader never forbid any demonstrations, and when he said any future protesters are "mohareb," that wasn't forbidding people to protest. Now, today, out comes this news saying oh yes, that rally had a permit.

Man I thought AMERICAN politics was like Alice's rabbit hole, but Iranian politics is curiouser and curiouser and CURIOUSER!!!

[Arshama]

@ 1040 GMT: Militarising the Judiciary?

"In a hard war, the line between you and the enemy is clear, but in a soft war there is nothing so solid. The enemy is everywhere.”

Commander Zolghadr is right for once: the IRGC is everywhere in Iran!

[Arshama]

Rev. Magdalen,

Alice's rabbit hole continues. Khabar Online just published a denial from Tehran's governor Morteza Tamaddon: Such a permit never existed!
http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-54808.aspx

Shotor didi nadidi ;-)

Arshama

[Rev. Magdalen]

In other news, the Leveretts have finally closed comments on the incredibly long debate on their blog! Posting there was definitely an eye-opening experience. I had not realized before that there were Americans who really do believe that the Iranian government tells the truth about everything, while the American government only tells lies and is completely the slave of Israel!

Poor, poor Ahmadinejad, constantly being "spun" by American media to make it LOOK like he's saying hostile things when really he's just the sweetest kindest man in the whole world! Why oh why won't mean old Obama embrace him and start the era of peace and love already???

Definitely a surreal experience!

[rezvan]

Dear Rev, He is certainly more generous than the clench fisted Obama has been who claims to have unclenched his fist towards Iran but keeps them tightly clenched ever but is a pussy cat to Israel with his administration officials tripping over one another in their blind adoration of Israel. BTW Rev have you ever read the Bible. I thought you guys were supposed to turn the other cheek each time you get smitten

[Rev. Magdalen]

Rezvan

First of all, I'm not that kind of reverend, and second of all I haven't been smitten, last I checked.

Israel is the United States' ally. The IRI is the country that invaded the US embassy, still holds it as conquered territory, and still regularly refers to the US and its allies as their "enemies" who they would like to "punch in the mouth".

Why on earth would you expect the President of the United States to treat these two countries equally? It's just not logical. I really cannot understand why supporters of the Regime act like Obama is the hostile one in this situation. Has he EVER referred to the IRI as his "enemy" even one time? Ever threaten to punch the IRI in the mouth? Ever accuse the IRI of conspiring against the US in plots to subvert the populace? Ever kidnap Iranian tourists and hold them without charges for months on end? Ever call Ahmadinejad any insulting names?

The only thing Obama has ever said is that he thinks the IRI is pursuing nuclear weapons, and he says that because he has classified intel that tells him so. Is that an insulting thing to say? Somehow cruel and heartless? If the IRI would like to prove him wrong it's very easy, simply open up all nuclear facilities to free and unannounced inspections from the IAEA.

Seriously, this may be some cultural thing I don't understand, but I can't believe you Regime guys are actually saying these things with a straight face, that Obama is the hostile one. You have no idea how much political capital he has spent to try every possible avenue for peace, only to be slapped down every time. It seems like you will portray everything as hostility unless Obama just says "Oh hey, keep the embassy, forget about that, and here, have as much nuke tech as you want, in fact, here's some warheads, there you go, and oh by the way would you like to be most favored nation trading status?"

[Barry]

@REV MAGDALEN

I am wondering what would be,in the us, the equivalent - of a large gathering at Tehran Friday prayers shouting "Death to America"

How about all members of Congress gathered together at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington - shouting "Death to Iran"??

Nah - that wouldn't be quite the same - needs some religious overtones.

Any ideas???

Barry

[Catherine]

RE Rev. Magdalen post 16: In other news, the Leveretts have finally closed comments on the incredibly long debate on their blog!

Are you sure? I don't see any message to that effect on that thread (Leveretts appearance on Charlie Rose show). I've been checking in regularly waiting for Bill's long-promised response to Eric Brill's report on the Iranian election results.

[Catherine]

RE 18:00 GMT about the legality of the June 15 protest

Oh too bad! I just had a look at this: http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/apr/13/1671

.... and then thought I better check out what EA had to say about it before getting my hopes up. So is the story over now, or are there those who dispute his denial? Will we see Rev Magdalen's ardently desired piece of paper with carbon dated ink? :-)

[Bill]

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that there is “no evidence indicating that Iran’s nuclear activities include efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon”. And we are supposed to believe the guy who said there is no genocide in Darfur and the Armenian genocide never happened? Please this is another Islamist just scratching the back of his fellow Islamist.

[Bill]

Rev. Magdalen,

Yes that race for Iran blog was quite an eye opener. I hope you noted the pro regime Iranians on the blog. It is quite ironic how the conversation always drifts back to US and Israeli human rights violations when the conversation is supposed to be about Iran. However, I am having an interesting exchange with Eric Brill over the election results. My main arguement with him is that debating the electiont is essentially a fruitless exercise simply because it was a selection while he keeps trying to get me to prove fraud. I think his stance is some what symptomatic of a westerner viewing Iranian politics from a western angle(ie that they are true and fair) instead of the fact it was a selection not an election. Hello the results were predetermined and foisting the burden of proof on the Green Movement is just a tactic to deflect. Any dummy is going to realize the numbers need to add up and that is what the regime did. In addition it is a little hard to prove fraud when one side is not allowing the side to idependently review the results. Should be an intersting exchange and who knows maybe he will see the light. I also liked your many posts--and thanks for keeping me up all night several times by encouraging me to post there!!! :)

thx
Bill