Iran Analysis: The Regime's Next Push Against "Nothing Special"

Having failed to shut down all public signs of opposition this weekend, the Iranian Government seems to be making yet one more push to get rid of pesky dissent.

On the one hand, authorities are playing down the demonstrations of 22 Khordaad (12 June). Tehran police chief Hossein Sajedinia claimed, “Throughout yesterday nothing particular happened in the capital and a limited number of people, about 91 suspects, were arrested by the police and delivered to the judiciary.” (Opposition reports of detentions range from 200 in Tehran to more than 900 across Iran.)

Deputy Commander Ahmadreza Radan asserted that only a few people, "deceived by anti- Revolutionary television and internet networks”, were detained. He added, "Nothing special happened."



Given that"nothing special" happened, the Government sure did appear jumpy yesterday. There are reports that all blogs based on WordPress --- EA is one (though, in case anyone in Tehran is not, it will not be from this summer) --- have been filtered.

After a period in which he tried to use contact with political prisoners to get them to "repent", Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi also appears to be taking a tougher line. Kalemeh reports that his office has slapped on tough restrictions on detainees' meetings with their families.

But perhaps the most ominous sign that the supposed non-events of 22 Khordaad will be met with renewed aggression came beyond the Government with claims of Basiji intimidation of senior clerics and opposition figures. Sunday was "distinguished" by reports, accompanied by video, of plainclothes protesters harassing Saeed Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, and Mehdi Karroubi. That challenge, with an apparent declaration, "We want to make it such that these guys can never insult Islam or the revolution again", follows the humiliation of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the Ayatollah's grandson, on 4 June.

But here the paradox of the Government's supposed legitimacy arises. With each loud turn of the screw, not just against the opposition but against those who are supposedly part of the Iranian system, President Ahmadinejad and Co. provoke more dissent from within. While 22 Khordaad temporarily overtook last week's challenge to the Government from conservative/principlist figures like Ali Motahari, expect that challenge to re-emerge this week.

(Over the weekend, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the Secretary General of the Motalefeh Party, gave an extensive interview to Khabar Online in which he said, "We are no longer criticising but protesting against" the President's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for his deviation from Islam, writing six letters to Ahmadinejad. , wrote AN about 6 letters.

Habibi added the complaint that the President was not kind to parties other than those that he considered "good smelling" --- rayehe khosh khedmat.)

"Nothing special" sure does feel a bit tense this morning.

Comments

[Arshama]

@ "Nothing Special"

In today's video message Mohsen Sazegara offers a slightly different view:
1) All three strategies adopted this time have worked out quite well: a) nightly shouting of Allahu Akbar on rooftops was strong in Tehran and practiced in other big cities, e.g. Mashhad too, b) working less, causing delays at work or even boycotting it has proven successful, and c) scattered protests all over the city had the desired effect of dispersing security forces.
Sazegara reports that they controlled the city via the traffic control center, located in Iranshahr street, with an auxiliary in the Sarallah HQ, and sent their troops to all those places, where people were gathering. Sec. forces were forced to distribute their staff on those 6 places, announced by the GM in advance, offering an excellent opportunity to stage quick rallies in other quarters (Greenies guerilla tactics of flash protests were a success ;-)
Another important fact was that regular police forces appeared rather indifferent, and there were even clashes with Bassiji thugs as apparent from yesterday's clip from a bus, i.e. regular policemen are not interested in serving as thugs, beating those civilians, whom they should protect. Sazegara pointed as well to the low age of many plainclothes forces (about 16 or 17), reminding him of the Nazi's last stand. In any case all police stations were emptied -- an excellent opportunity for thieves, as someone commented from Iran.
New footage on protests is likely to be uploaded in the next days, as internet speed is back to normal.

As to the mob, attacking Ayatollah Sane's house in Qom, while Karroubi visited him, it was obviously organised by Mesbah Yazdi, the Crocodile.

The next rallyies are scheduled for tomorrow, the first anniversary of Sohrab Araabi's death, and Sunday, 30 Khordad, the first anniversary of Neda.
Again, nothing special...

[Kurt]

On the police stations - while I don't advocate an AIM Bureau of Indian Affairs takeover (this would end very badly), I think it would be hilarious to just leave a big, taunting green banner saying "we were here".

I'm not sure how much of this is indifference, or rivalry, or both, regarding the friction between the security forces' respective institutions.

[Kurt]

I wanted to go for Officer Barbrady, but this will do as well:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic

[Catherine]

Another part of the push

Visitation Rights Revoked for All Political Prisoners
http://persian2english.com/?p=11849" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=11849

[Arshama]

Kurt,

Thanks a lot for this clip :-)
We should show it M. Ali who saw nothing on Saturday, but I fear he will just reply: there were no explosions in Tehran...

"I'm not sure how much of this is indifference, or rivalry, or both, regarding the friction between the security forces' respective institutions."

I think a mixture of both, but usually the police is more civilised. Apart from that it has no reason to defend its assets as the IRGC, who fear the loss of Iranian Telecom, Anguran Mine, Iralco (Aluminium), Tractor Tabriz, Tidewater Shipping and Marine Services, Sadra Marine Services, Khatam al-Anbia, Khatam al-Osea, Mobin Corporation and the other 40 to 60 % of Iranian companies.

Rediscovered this rather simple, but effective game http://www.pictogame.com/en/play/game/lZ8dE94pZ6iE_smash-ahmadinejad" rel="nofollow">http://www.pictogame.com/en/play/game/lZ8dE94pZ...

Arshama

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