Iran Special: The Significance of the "Universities Crisis" (Verde)

UPDATE 0600 GMT: Nooshabeh Amiri, writing in Rooz English, offers a powerful opinion piece on last week's demonstrations, "Shut the Majlis, oh Brother!"

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Mr Verde writes for EA:

"Crisis" in a country is not usually associated with a debate over higher education. The military, the police, radio and TV, the courts, elections: these are the battlegrounds that come to mind.

Make no mistake, however. The current dispute in Iran over Islamic Azad University is important. It is significant not just because Ahmadinejad and Co. want to oust former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies from the university's management. It is an indicator of other possible trouble within the regime.

First, the beginner's guide to the current dispute:

- The Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, headed by Ahmadinejad in his capacity as President, decides to overturn last summer's decision of the Azad University Board to make itself into a trust. The SCCR also said it would appoint new trustees.

- Azad University takes legal measures, and a court issues an injunction against the SCCR decision.

- The following day, the Parliament votes for legislation that will in effect block attempts by the SCCR to hand over the management of Azad University to the Government.

- There is a demonstration by a small number of regime-organized "students" outside the Majlis. The demonstrators shout slogans against the Parliament, the MPs, and the Speaker Ali Larijani. Some of the signs they are carrying are regarded as so rude that the Iranian Students News Agency blurs out the slogans. It is reported that one of the speakers at the gathering threatened that they would bombard the Majlis (as the Russian Colonel Liakhov had done on behalf of Mohammad Ali Shah in 1908).

- The following day the Parliament votes to annul its previous decision, even though the original bill is still in the process of being vetted by the Guardian Council. During the debate MPs insult each other and Ali Motahari claims that the pro-Ahmadinejad Koochakzadeh (who is close to Ahmadinejad) is of Russian descent and has changed his name from Koochakov. Motahari later claims that, during the debate, Koochatzadeh/Koochakov physically attacked him.

- After a request from Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, orders another court to review the injunction against the Council.

A bit of background:

The Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution was created by the Islamic Republic in the early 1980s, as part of the Cultural Revolution that shut universities for a few years. Since then, both Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei have said that the the decisions of the SCCR should be considered as the law of the land and that the other state organs, including the Majlis, should not contradict these decisions.

The Supreme Leaders' declarations stand against the Constitution, under which the Majlis has the authority to pass laws on all matters. The Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution is not even mentioned in the Constitution.

Conclusion? The judge who ordered the injunction, in his interpretation of the Constitution, defied Ayatollah Khamenei’s standing orders regarding the decisions of the SCCR.

On the day the Parlaiment was debating the original law, one MP, citing the Supreme Leader’s views about the SCCR’s powers, tabled a motion to stop debate. MPs voted against the proposal.

Some more background:

When legislation is passed by the Majles, it has to be vetted by the Guardian Council. The Council will return legislation that it deems to be against the Constitution and/or Sharia law. At this stage the legislation is returned to Parliament.

If the Majlis tries to accommodate the views of the Council, the legislation is vetted again. If Parliament refuses to accommodate the Council, the legislation goes to the Expediency Council. In such a case, the Expediency Council’s decision will become law.

One issue that stands out:

At the present time, two laws have been pass by the Majles within two days, with the second negating the first. This does not look like confidence. It looks like chaos and crisis.

The demonstration in front of the Majlis:

Was Ayatollah Khamenei behind the demonstration, its slogans, and speeches, or at least supportive of it? He certainly did not condemn it, as he has the post-election demonstrations including millions of Iranians.

Why resort to the embarrassing, costly, chaotic, and illegal tactic of organizing the demonstration outside the Majlis? Why not ensure that the Council of Guardians rejects the legislation, returns it to Parliament, and then ensure that the Majlis votes in the way the Government wants?

Surely the regime should be able to rely on the trusted Council of Guardians. And the current Parliament has been filtered through two elections, with the Guardian Council weeding out the candidacy of almost all reformist “troublemakers”. (Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani said that this is Khamenei’s Majlis. Note that he forgot to mention that the Majlis is supposed to belong to the people.)

Yet it appears that, despite this supposed control of the legislative process, even a heavily-sanitized Majlis is no longer reliable, so rent-a-thugs have to be paraded in front of the Majlis and insult their own MPs.

Implications:

We are witnessing the use of regime demonstrators against an increasing number of people and institutions. That indicates, that for some reason, the regime’s internal structures are failing. Amidst what appears to be a serious crisis within the Islamic Republic,its institutions are unable to resolve it; at times they seem to be making it worse.

We are seeing increasingly angry speeches by Khamenei, directed at regime insiders, and comical announcements such as:

- It was announced aid ships were being sent to Gaza and escorted by the Revolutionary Guards. Then it was announced that no escort would be provided. Then it was announced that no aid ship would be sent, ostensibly to avoid war with Israel. Then it was announced that the ships did not go because Egypt had refused them permission to pass through the Suez Canal, only for Cairo to deny Tehran's claim.

- We have wildly varying timescales about self sufficiency in production of petrol: from 24 hours to more than two years. (The list is long and tiresome)

If all of this does not indicate a crisis, what would?

The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

1815 GMT: Rafsanjani (and Supreme Leader) Watching. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani chaired a meeting today about the Islamic Azad Universities. That might not be a significant event were it not for the timing --- the discussion takes place days after the President's move to assert control over the chain of universities, interpreted by some as an attack on Rafsanjani's political base.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei gave a speech today at Tehran's Abuzar Mosque, explaining that the first duty of women is motherhood.

1510 GMT: Hmmm.... Iran's deputy head of judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, as quoted by Press TV:

"The major violators of human rights are Western states. If the true face of Western countries which claim to be custodians of human rights is shown, you will see that people's rights are violated most severely in Europe, the US and Israel”....He said Iran has committed itself to protecting people's rights as it firmly believes in religious and Islamic principles.

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1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports concerns about the health of detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz in the clinic of Rejai Shahr Prison.

1405 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). One more piece of information, courtesy of Iranian Labor News Agency: Iran's oil exports fell almost 50% from 1979 to 2008.

1350 GMT: All is Well Alert. Irrespective of the news in this update, Habibollah Asgarowladi is on hand to assure, "Iran has had never a better position in the world than now."

1340 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). As we learn that Iran's oil revenues have dropped 24 percent over the last year (see 0945 GMT), Roshanak Taghavi provides essential context and analysis for The Guardian.

Taghavi reveals from a source that about 35 million barrels of oil are in offshore storage tankers. This in itself is not unusual --- Iran's summer holdings have been as high as 60 million barrels --- but the political and economic situation has changed:

What is unique this year, and a rising concern for Iran's oil ministry, is the decision by some of the country's important "eastern" customers, including China, India and Japan – who are among the main purchasers of Iran's heavier grades of crude oil – to either reduce their formal term contracts with the Islamic Republic in favour of better prices from other oil producers, or to cut some of their contracts completely.

1335 GMT: President v. Parliament (University Edition). Golnaz Esfandiari of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has written a useful overview of the rising tension between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Parliament over control of Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Visit of the Day. Mehdi Karroubi has visited filmmaker/journalist Mohammad Nourizad, journalist Emaduddin Baghi, and former Vice President and MP Hossein Marashi, all of whom are on bail or temporary release from prison.

1324 GMT: The Hijab Referendum? The head of Iran's police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has announced that a poll will be conducted on the enforcement of hijab in every province.

Not quite sure how Ahmadi-Moghaddam gets the authority to declare public referenda, but I am even more vexed by this question....

Given that President Ahmadinejad has been in conflict with other members of the Iranian establishment over the enforcement of hijab, what will be the announced outcome from the ballot boxes?

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist and former Army member Firez Yousefi has been arrested, allegedly for giving away secrets in interviews with foreign media.

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The former mayor of Ghasr Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been released from detention.

1200 GMT: The Battle Within (Hijab Edition). More feuding within the establishment over the President's criticism of "morality police". Partou, the weekly publication associated with Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, has sharply attacked Ahmadineajad:"Is the hijab situation now better than under former governments?"

And Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has made the bold declaration, "I insist on all Islamic rules, especially hijab, even if I have to lose my head for it."

1100 GMT: Parliament v. President. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari, a leading critic of the Government, has claimed that pro-Ahmadinejad Mehdi Kuchakzadeh had a central role in this week's organised rally in front of the Majlis, pressuring Parliament to cede control of Islamic Azad University to the President. Motahari said Kuchakzadeh "even threw a paperclip container at me".

1040 GMT: Messages for 7 Tir. Tomorrow is 7 Tir, a date notable in modern Iranian history for  a 1981 bombing that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic, including Chief Justice Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

The family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has put out a message: how can you mourn the dead in an atmosphere which knows nothing except violence?

It is reported that the late Ayatollah Beheshti's family will not hold a memorial service for 7 Tir. Ayatollah Behesti's son, Mousavi chief advisor Alireza Beheshti, has been imprisoned during the post-election crisis.

1000 GMT: Happy Father's Day. On Friday, Father's Day in Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi met the families of detainees Alireza Beheshti Shirazi, Arab Mazar, and Ghorban Behzadian-Nejad.

The central and youth committees of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front also met the families of political prisoners.

0945 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Fars reports, without citing the source, that Iran’s oil sales from March 2009 to February 2010 fell by 24.3 percent, from $78.65 to $59.55 billion dollars.

Fars softened the blow by adding that non-oil exports rose by 12.7 percent to $19 billion.

0710 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The three-year prison sentence of law student Abolfazl Ghasemi, who was detained during the Ashura protests of 27 December, has been upheld.

0705 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Video, claiming to be new footage of the attack earlier this month on the houses of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been posted.

0655 GMT: Breaking the Quiet? Ahh, this might stir things up. Looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has delivered a statement on the lines of "we need executives who implement the law correctly".

Executives, not Parliament. And judiciary, take that as a directive from y9ur President.

0630 GMT: It appears to be a very quiet morning in Iran.

Iranian state media is preoccupied with criticism of the latest US sanctions. Most of the showpiece reaction is cut-and-paste defiance, as in the statement from Iran's armed forces, "The ploy of imposing sanctions on the Iranian nation is ineffective because the establishment and the people have succeeded in finding their path."

Still, there is a nice touch in one featured critique, from Alaeedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee: "The US move to impose sanctions on Iran is in fact imposing sanctions on their own firms."

On the international front, Tehran is claiming --- after a phone call between Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki --- that the two will meet Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in the near-future to discuss further steps over Iran's uranium enrichment.

Inside Iran, there is growing concern over the health of teacher and activist Ali Akbar Baghani, who has been detained for more than two months.

The Latest from Iran (18 June): Hardliners Criticise Ahmadinejad

1510 GMT: Twitter and Civil Rights. We have posted a response to the latest attempt to set straight the relationship between social media and the post-election political situation in Iran.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ebrahim Rashidi, who disappeared on Monday, has reportedly called his family from Ardebil's intelligence detention centre.

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Journalist Hassan Etemadi has been given a two-year sentence, and journalist Shahin Zeynali has been handed a term of two years and 91 days.

The former mayor of Ghasr-e Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been detained and transferred to a centre in Kermanshah. No reason for his arrest has been given.

1330 GMT: Through the Looking Glass on the Hijab. Reviewing today's Tehran Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, I think we are now caught up in a contortion of politics. Iran has suddenly become a place where defenders of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad praise him for "a relatively liberal government approach" and turn their fire upon the "hardliners", rather than the opposition.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tZ2a0_3sNw&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

For the headline from Jannati's speech today, in contrast to his previous appearances, is not the threat of heavy punishment upon the opposition but his criticism of Ahmadinejad for raising the "cumbersome" issue of the "morality police" and their efforts to enforce "good behaviour" such as the wearing of the hijab.

Linking those who acted or dressed inappropriately to "drug traffickers" and "terrorists", Jannati said that women who defied the rules on proper clothing were "worse than poison". No one (he means you, Mahmoud) had "the right to tie the hands" of those enforcing the law.

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Hijab Problem. It seems the President has got himself in a political tangle over his complaint about "morality police" cracking down on supposed social transgressions, including "bad hijab".

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that Ahmadinejad's directives are the basis for his officials' actions.

High-profile member of Parlaiment Ali Motahari has declared that the President has been adversely influenced by his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Mashhad's Friday Prayer leader, has asserted, "Unfortunately Ahmadinejad does not give the right attention to implementing religious rules."

Member of Parliament Mohammad Taghi Rahbar says he is ready to discuss the issue with Ahamadinejad on television.

0950 GMT: Today's Khabar Kick on the Government's Shins. Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, has suggested that Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini might have to resign because he wants to complete a Ph.D. dissertation.

The website, as reported by Peyke Iran, also points to 11 "suspicious" comments by the President in the last 76 days.

0945 GMT: Take Your Resolution and Stick It. Iran's National Security Council has issued a strongly-worded denunciation of the UN Security Council sanctions resolution on Tehran's nuclear programme:

Contrary to all expectations, the resolution has focused on Iran's nuclear program, without so much as a word about the Israeli regime's criminal activities and its attack on the Freedom Flotilla convoy carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip only 10 days ago.

Also, the resolution brazenly ignores the 11 proposals put forward by Iran during Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which have been welcomed by world countries.

The council takes issue with the adoption of the resolution, particularly since it came despite constructive cooperation and the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear material for the 22nd consecutive time....

"This clearly shows that Washington's commitment to Israeli security will never allow UN Security Council to fulfill its obligations with regards to securing the safety and the rights of different nations....

The Islamic Republic of Iran will respond fittingly to any attempt to violate the legal and legitimate rights of the Iranian nation," the statement added.

0845 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Eldar Mamedov, "Iran: How Europe Can Help".

0840 GMT: Economy Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has complained that people are still not informed about the Government's subsidy reduction plan.

0805 GMT: A Boast (and an Admission?). Tehran police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, trying to wash away criticism of last year's attack on Tehran University's dormitories, has said, "We were prepared for the elections one week in advance." The dorm incidents were predictable because Communists and neo-Marxists following Mehdi Karroubi had come onto the streets.

Not sure if Ahmadi-Moghaddam realises this, but his statement gives indirect support to allegations of a manipulated election --- the security forces were preparing for violence because they knew in advance that there might be anger over an "adjusted" vote. (More on this on Saturday....)

Meanwhile, member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has kept up his pressure on the Government, saying that the Majlis never completed a full report --- despite its promises --- on the dormitory attacks: "Only parts of it exist and are in our minds."

0800 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Some more pressure on the regime: Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the Friday Prayer leader of Kashan, has said, "If attacks on marja in Qom become normal, the future is not predictable."  Hojatolelsam Mehdi Tabatabai asserts, "God will not forgive those who insulted the 14 Khordad [4 June] ceremony."

0645 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics --- An Apology? Hmm, wondering if this might be an important signal....

In a wide-ranging interview on Parleman News, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani makes the statement that "whoever does not respect the marja (senior clerics)... shows his worthlessness". Larijani asserts that the marja "are the pillars of nezam", the Iranian system, and "the Supreme Leader up to the chiefs of Iran's forces see them as such".

An EA correspondent gets to the point with the question, "Is this an indirect apology from Ayatollah Khamenei?"

0640 GMT: The Economic Squeeze. Reuters publishes a summary of foreign companies who have pulled back from operations inside Iran and those who continue to do business.

0550 GMT: A Victory in Britain. It is reported that actress and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights activist Kiana Firouz has been granted "leave to remain"' in the UK, removing the threat of deportation to Iran.

Firouz had been refused asylum on two previous occasions, prompting a campaign to prevent her return to Tehran.

0535 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. It is reported that the website of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been filtered.

Kalemeh publishes a letter from Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the Grand Ayatollah, to senior clerics in Qom. Montazeri describes Sunday's attack on the Grand Ayatollah's home and offices and asks for a denunciation of the assault.

0515 GMT: Today's white noise starts out of Washington rather than Tehran, as the Obama Administration --- trying to hold back the tide of Congressional action on Iran --- plays up rhetorically to the legislators.

Speaking at a hearing on Thursday, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave the rationale for the adjusted approach of the White House to US missile defence:

One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles, or a handful.

"It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.

An editorial aside:I wonder if and when the Administration will ever realise that this appeasement --- not of Iran but of Congress --- will never free up its approach towards Tehran but will limit and even undermine any hope of crafting a thoughtful policy towards the Iranian situation.

Meanwhile, getting back to significant developments, we catch up with this week's potentially important analysis by reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh. A Deputy Interior Minister in the Khatami Government and post-election detainee, Tajzadeh has published a lengthy consideration of today's Iran through a review of the past, apologising for the reformists' role in the detention and execution of political prisoners in the 1980s.

We've posted extracts from the Tajzadeh analysis, accompanied by interpretation for Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau.

Iran Analysis: The Regime's Next Push Against "Nothing Special"

Having failed to shut down all public signs of opposition this weekend, the Iranian Government seems to be making yet one more push to get rid of pesky dissent.

On the one hand, authorities are playing down the demonstrations of 22 Khordaad (12 June). Tehran police chief Hossein Sajedinia claimed, “Throughout yesterday nothing particular happened in the capital and a limited number of people, about 91 suspects, were arrested by the police and delivered to the judiciary.” (Opposition reports of detentions range from 200 in Tehran to more than 900 across Iran.)

Deputy Commander Ahmadreza Radan asserted that only a few people, "deceived by anti- Revolutionary television and internet networks”, were detained. He added, "Nothing special happened."



Given that"nothing special" happened, the Government sure did appear jumpy yesterday. There are reports that all blogs based on WordPress --- EA is one (though, in case anyone in Tehran is not, it will not be from this summer) --- have been filtered.

After a period in which he tried to use contact with political prisoners to get them to "repent", Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi also appears to be taking a tougher line. Kalemeh reports that his office has slapped on tough restrictions on detainees' meetings with their families.

But perhaps the most ominous sign that the supposed non-events of 22 Khordaad will be met with renewed aggression came beyond the Government with claims of Basiji intimidation of senior clerics and opposition figures. Sunday was "distinguished" by reports, accompanied by video, of plainclothes protesters harassing Saeed Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, and Mehdi Karroubi. That challenge, with an apparent declaration, "We want to make it such that these guys can never insult Islam or the revolution again", follows the humiliation of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the Ayatollah's grandson, on 4 June.

But here the paradox of the Government's supposed legitimacy arises. With each loud turn of the screw, not just against the opposition but against those who are supposedly part of the Iranian system, President Ahmadinejad and Co. provoke more dissent from within. While 22 Khordaad temporarily overtook last week's challenge to the Government from conservative/principlist figures like Ali Motahari, expect that challenge to re-emerge this week.

(Over the weekend, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the Secretary General of the Motalefeh Party, gave an extensive interview to Khabar Online in which he said, "We are no longer criticising but protesting against" the President's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for his deviation from Islam, writing six letters to Ahmadinejad. , wrote AN about 6 letters.

Habibi added the complaint that the President was not kind to parties other than those that he considered "good smelling" --- rayehe khosh khedmat.)

"Nothing special" sure does feel a bit tense this morning.

The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

2130 GMT: International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that a heavy security presence in Mashaad prevented significant protest, with 10 people arrested.

2100 GMT: MediaWatch. The darkly humourous mis-reporting of the Associated Press (see 1840 GMT) of a "quiet day" in Iran --- an EA correspondent asked, "Did the reporter actually leave his room today?" --- is becoming a serious case of false "news". Both MSNBC and the Jerusalem Post are recycling the despatch as the definitive account of events.

To make matters worse, the BBC seems to have taken a pass on looking for news today, settling for a bland "we're not sure but this is what others say": "Iranian security forces have reportedly clashed with groups of people trying to mark the anniversary of the disputed presidential election in Tehran. Opposition groups say confrontations began in the evening as people left work and gathered in different areas."

That would not be so bad if the BBC had not left unaltered the wayward conclusion made by their correspondent at the start of the day: "The opposition seem to have run out of ideas and many Iranians are now reduced to sullen acquiescence."

*A sharp contrast is offered by Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post. Having written an exaggerated account of the Green Movement's demise on 11 February, Erdbrink puts forth measured optimism for the opposition today:

"There were so many plainclothes officers, that we didn't know who was with us or who against us," a protester said. "But people were not afraid at all, which must be worrying for the government."

Even though the demonstrations were far smaller and the atmosphere generally calmer than in the post-election protests last year, the fact that people decided to go out was remarkable, analysts said.

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1940 GMT: As we near the end of the day, we've posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "22 Khordaad: What Happened and What It Means".

And don't forget to check out our set of videos from the day.

1840 GMT: Oh, Dear. Ali Akbar Dareini of the Associated Press --- posting only one hour ago --- summarises the day: "The one-year anniversary of Iran's disputed election passed quietly Saturday with little more than a subdued Internet appeal by opposition leaders for supporters to speak out on the Web against government repression."

To which I am afraid I will have to defer to a Twitter observer: "What were you smoking?"

1830 GMT: A RAHANA reporter claims that special forces threw rock and stones at fleeing people in Enghelab Square.

1750 GMT: An Iranian activist reports, "People move alongside cars showing V [for Victory] signs."

1645 GMT: Comment of Day? A protester reports on Balatarin, "I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of 'We Are Countless!)'"

1615 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Abdolreza Tajik, journalist, human rights activist, and member of the National-Religious Front, was arrested today for the third time in the past year.

1550 GMT: The Dangers of Premature Conclusion. Lindsey Hilsum of Britain's Channel 4, an excellent reporter, moves far too quickly to her keyboard this afternoon, posting 30 minutes ago: "The streets of Tehran are almost deserted today, it seems, apart from clusters of riot police and basij militia on motorbikes."

1538 GMT: We're counting at least 21 arrests so far: 12 in Enghelab Avenue, 6 near Tehran University, and 3 in Vali-e Asr Square.

Green Voice of Freedom claims about 1000 students protested at Tehran University.

1535 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Davoud Roshani, a member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been arrested.

1520 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN is reporting from a source that tear gas was used to disperse crowds at Vali-e Asr Square.

A crowd chanted "Ya Hosein Mir Hosein" at Enghelab and Palestine Avenues before being chased away by security forces.

1510 GMT: The Green website Rah-e-Sabz has finally posted a report on the "security atmosphere" in several Iranian cities today.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student Kamran Asa, brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa,  and Hamidreza and Ashkan Moseybian have been freed on bail.

1410 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a source, "Police block off westbound Revolution [Enghelab] Ave towards Azadi Square."

1405 GMT: Radio Farda has now posted a summary of the clashes and gathering crowds in central Tehran.

1355 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency are reporting at least 10 people detained, with security forces using tear gas and baton, in Tehran clashes.

1345 GMT: Several witnesses have told Radio Farda about scattered clashes between people and security forces around Enghelab Square.

1335 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports three arrested, "blindfolded and taken away on motorcycles", in clashes at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran. Growing crowds on sidewalks are being chased away.

1325 GMT: We've posted video of a protest at Sharif University in Tehran.

1320 GMT: There are indications that, in addition to Shiraz (see 1220 GMT), there will be protests in Tabriz & Mashaad at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

1315 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: " 1000s of riot police in all major squares and intersections Tajrish, 7 Tir, Revolution [Enghelab] Avenue." Mehdi Sharakiz adds, "Enghelab is full of both people and guards. All book stores are closed." He adds that all streets to Enghelab are blocked.

Sayah adds, "Many Basij and security forces waiting in local schools and mosques."

1300 GMT: Clamping Down. Earlier today we noted that former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar had blogged about the disruption at the 4 June ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, ""This is another sign...that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible." (see 0545 GMT)

The sequel is that, according to Parleman News, Ebtekar's blog has now been filtered by Iranian authorities.

1245 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: "Riot police out in force. 100s lining Azadi Avenue from Azadi Square to Revolution [Enghelab] Square."

1240 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from sources: "Packs of riot police roaming Azadi Ave. Basij waiting in mosque at Kaj Square".

An Iranian activist claims, "Plainclothes on their motorbikes are wandering and shouting 'Death to the traitors; to scare people."

1225 GMT: There is a lot of chatter about build-up of people around Tehran University (which would correspond with end of today's examinations) as well as attempts to gather at Vanak Square and chatting at Enghelab Square. There are also unconfirmed reports of students surrounded by security forces at Sharif University. We are monitoring before treating as confirmed.

1220 GMT: EA has absolutely reliable information from Iran that the protest in Shiraz is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. lcoal time (1400 GMT).

1200 GMT: A hat-tip to Abigail Fielding-Smith of The Independent of London: she posts testimony from "a selection of grass-roots activists", some in Iran, some who have fled, and summarises:

"Although some show signs of despair, they are determined to find new ways of keeping up their opposition. It is difficult to say how representative their voices are. With heavy reporting restrictions inside Iran, and many people afraid to communicate with foreign journalists, it is hard to gauge public opinion accurately.

Many who took part in the protests have lost interest in demonstrating, either because they fear the repercussions or because they lack faith in the movement's ability to change anything. The forces ranged against it are formidable: the might of the security establishment; the continuing, albeit weakened, power of conservative ideology in Iran; and the populist economic policies of Mr Ahmadinejad. Nonetheless, political change is often, as the activists interviewed here are starting to realise, a long game."

1145 GMT:  Conflicting reports over whether there is a visible security build-up in Tehran. Josh Shahryar posts video.

1140 GMT: We've posted a short but incisive comment by Pedestrian, "22 Khordaad: The Day We Chose to Live".

1050 GMT: Academic Corner. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 14 students at Kerman University have been detained. A total of 35 students were called to the university's disciplinary committee.

1040 GMT: Not a Diversion at All. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, is quoted by Resalat: "In the next few months Iran will announce a new nuclear achievement in connection to the production of fuel for its Tehran research reactor."

1010 GMT: The First Demonstration? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that retired workers of Pars Wagon Company in Arak have held a protest.

1005 GMT: Better Late than Never. Ahh, here comes Press TV's "objective" coverage of the anniversary:

"Iran's Press TV channel is to broadcast a documentary on the country's latest presidential election that was held on June 12 last year.

The Real Fake by renowned Iranian director Nader Talebzadeh that will be aired by the English language channel on Sunday provides realistic insight into developments in Iran before the election and the incidents after that.

The documentary seeks to resolve ambiguities that foreign audience may have about the presidential election. It includes footage that has never been broadcast on any TV channel, including some about the post-election violence and suspicious murders [hmm....Neda?; definitely not those killed in Kharizak Prison] committed in the days after the election."

The documentary also investigates the role of western media in the post-election developments in the country.

It provides facts indicating that the West has been preparing for a war with Iran after the election, which is introduced as an issue much more important than the issues surrounding the Islamic republic's 10th presidential election itself.

1000 GMT: Latest from the Streets. Cellphone and text service is reported normal. Some sources say Internet access has slowed; others say it is normal.

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran's main teachers' union has called for the release of all political detainees.

0800 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from Tehran sources, at 12 p.m. local time (0830 GMT): "Still no sign of police or security forces at major intersection and squares."

0733 GMT: We've posted a separate feature, "Daily Life in Tehran, One Year On".

0730 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from a Tehran source, "No sign of security forces or Basij in major intersections and squares." Iran Press News reports traffic in Tehran is normal.

0712 GMT: Meanwhile in Kyrgyzstan. The dramatic events this spring in Kyrgyzstan, where President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was forced to step down, are far from over. Violence around the southern city of Osh, a power base for Bakiyev, has killed almost 50 people in recent days, and thousands, many of them ethnic Uzbeks, have fled their homes.

0710 GMT: Marking 22 Khordaad. Reports that Iranian state TV now showing pictures of the President to mark his "victory" last year.

0700 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News launches another attack on the Government, writing that "Iran's economy has no steering wheel", with three months passing and no implementation of the 5th Plan.

0650 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online reports that, following Tehran Friday Prayers, there were chants denouncing high-profile member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been sharply critical of President Ahmadinejad.

At the same time, the fallout over the 4 June shout-down of another "establishment" figure, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri Esfahani has condemned the incident in a letter to Khomeini.

Hassan Rohani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned that, if the insults become usual, they might take down everyone, "even the planners".

0635 GMT: Protests = Foreign-Supported Terror. Press TV's website has 0 words about the anniversary of the election, preferring to headline yet another President Ahmadinejad announcement that Iran will enrich its uranium to 20 per cent (and thus does not need outside assistance to keep its Tehran Research Reactor operational).

However, Press TV' s current international programme is a not-so-subtle documentary that the "terrorist" "monarchist" group Tondar [Kingdom Assembly of Iran] is supported by the US Government. One of the allegations is that Tondar is linked to Radio Farda, the US Government-financed broadcaster.

And inside Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi has returned to the screen of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting after a year, albeit as a clear and present danger to the Iranian system.

0615 GMT: Why Mousavi Retreated. Kalameh, the website close to Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that the request for a permit to demonstrate was withdrawn because the Iranian regime was planning 2 blame Greens 4 violence on the day.

0545 GMT (9: 15 a.m. in Tehran): One Year Later, Another Day Forward? It is 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

Anyone who predicts what will occur today is either a bigger fool or a far smarter analyst than I. The official rationale for a march has been withdrawn by the foot-dragging of the Ministry of the Interior (which never, as far as I know, ever denied more than two of 10 requests by reformist groups for permits, but merely stalled and stalled) and the announcement of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Not just the heavy security presence today, but months of suppression and intimidation have disrupted the opposition and put fear into anyone who might dare show dissent openly.

Still some activists --- inside and outside Iran --- are talking of an appearance of protest, despite the risks. Whether that manifests itself and on what scale is beyond my most speculative guess at this point.

Meanwhile....

The Battle Over Neda

Iran's state TV channel IRIB 3 reportedly tried to get in a pre-emptive strike against protest last night with a documentary on Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old philosophy student killed last 20 June by a Basiji gunshot while observing a mass demonstration. No prizes for guessing that the programme would attribute Neda's death to a foreign scheme to discredit the Iranian regime.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rKJf7dVnMo[/youtube]

However, IRIB's effort was pre-empted in turn --- at least on the Internet --- by a new 33-second clip of her last moments. (Warning: Graphic)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk3sAI2nKRI[/youtube]

Political Prisoner Watch

RAHANA, complementing Internet chatter, writes that Iranian official in the Prosecutor General’s Office have warned student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, that "they have the power to do anything to him". The threats allegedly followed the publication of two letters sent by Tavakoli from Evin Prison, “For Change” and “We Will Build the Future.”

4 June Fall-Out

Massoumeh Ebtekar, Vice President in the Khatami Government, has written on her blog about last week's disruption at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, when his grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini was shouted down by hecklers and had to cut short his speech: "This is another sign, in the long string of events in recent years, that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible."