The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

1815 GMT: Rafsanjani (and Supreme Leader) Watching. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani chaired a meeting today about the Islamic Azad Universities. That might not be a significant event were it not for the timing --- the discussion takes place days after the President's move to assert control over the chain of universities, interpreted by some as an attack on Rafsanjani's political base.

Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei gave a speech today at Tehran's Abuzar Mosque, explaining that the first duty of women is motherhood.

1510 GMT: Hmmm.... Iran's deputy head of judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, as quoted by Press TV:

"The major violators of human rights are Western states. If the true face of Western countries which claim to be custodians of human rights is shown, you will see that people's rights are violated most severely in Europe, the US and Israel”....He said Iran has committed itself to protecting people's rights as it firmly believes in religious and Islamic principles.

NEW Shanghai Power Politics: China Shuts Out Iran (Shan Shan)
Iran Document & Analysis: US Gov’t Statement on Sanctions, Nukes, & Human Rights
Iran: Summary of the New US Sanctions
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “The Green Movement and Mousavi”
The Latest from Iran (26 June): Absolute Security?

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports concerns about the health of detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz in the clinic of Rejai Shahr Prison.

1405 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). One more piece of information, courtesy of Iranian Labor News Agency: Iran's oil exports fell almost 50% from 1979 to 2008.

1350 GMT: All is Well Alert. Irrespective of the news in this update, Habibollah Asgarowladi is on hand to assure, "Iran has had never a better position in the world than now."

1340 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). As we learn that Iran's oil revenues have dropped 24 percent over the last year (see 0945 GMT), Roshanak Taghavi provides essential context and analysis for The Guardian.

Taghavi reveals from a source that about 35 million barrels of oil are in offshore storage tankers. This in itself is not unusual --- Iran's summer holdings have been as high as 60 million barrels --- but the political and economic situation has changed:

What is unique this year, and a rising concern for Iran's oil ministry, is the decision by some of the country's important "eastern" customers, including China, India and Japan – who are among the main purchasers of Iran's heavier grades of crude oil – to either reduce their formal term contracts with the Islamic Republic in favour of better prices from other oil producers, or to cut some of their contracts completely.

1335 GMT: President v. Parliament (University Edition). Golnaz Esfandiari of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has written a useful overview of the rising tension between Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Parliament over control of Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Visit of the Day. Mehdi Karroubi has visited filmmaker/journalist Mohammad Nourizad, journalist Emaduddin Baghi, and former Vice President and MP Hossein Marashi, all of whom are on bail or temporary release from prison.

1324 GMT: The Hijab Referendum? The head of Iran's police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, has announced that a poll will be conducted on the enforcement of hijab in every province.

Not quite sure how Ahmadi-Moghaddam gets the authority to declare public referenda, but I am even more vexed by this question....

Given that President Ahmadinejad has been in conflict with other members of the Iranian establishment over the enforcement of hijab, what will be the announced outcome from the ballot boxes?

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist and former Army member Firez Yousefi has been arrested, allegedly for giving away secrets in interviews with foreign media.

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The former mayor of Ghasr Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been released from detention.

1200 GMT: The Battle Within (Hijab Edition). More feuding within the establishment over the President's criticism of "morality police". Partou, the weekly publication associated with Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, has sharply attacked Ahmadineajad:"Is the hijab situation now better than under former governments?"

And Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has made the bold declaration, "I insist on all Islamic rules, especially hijab, even if I have to lose my head for it."

1100 GMT: Parliament v. President. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari, a leading critic of the Government, has claimed that pro-Ahmadinejad Mehdi Kuchakzadeh had a central role in this week's organised rally in front of the Majlis, pressuring Parliament to cede control of Islamic Azad University to the President. Motahari said Kuchakzadeh "even threw a paperclip container at me".

1040 GMT: Messages for 7 Tir. Tomorrow is 7 Tir, a date notable in modern Iranian history for  a 1981 bombing that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic, including Chief Justice Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

The family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has put out a message: how can you mourn the dead in an atmosphere which knows nothing except violence?

It is reported that the late Ayatollah Beheshti's family will not hold a memorial service for 7 Tir. Ayatollah Behesti's son, Mousavi chief advisor Alireza Beheshti, has been imprisoned during the post-election crisis.

1000 GMT: Happy Father's Day. On Friday, Father's Day in Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi met the families of detainees Alireza Beheshti Shirazi, Arab Mazar, and Ghorban Behzadian-Nejad.

The central and youth committees of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front also met the families of political prisoners.

0945 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Fars reports, without citing the source, that Iran’s oil sales from March 2009 to February 2010 fell by 24.3 percent, from $78.65 to $59.55 billion dollars.

Fars softened the blow by adding that non-oil exports rose by 12.7 percent to $19 billion.

0710 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The three-year prison sentence of law student Abolfazl Ghasemi, who was detained during the Ashura protests of 27 December, has been upheld.

0705 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Video, claiming to be new footage of the attack earlier this month on the houses of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been posted.

0655 GMT: Breaking the Quiet? Ahh, this might stir things up. Looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has delivered a statement on the lines of "we need executives who implement the law correctly".

Executives, not Parliament. And judiciary, take that as a directive from y9ur President.

0630 GMT: It appears to be a very quiet morning in Iran.

Iranian state media is preoccupied with criticism of the latest US sanctions. Most of the showpiece reaction is cut-and-paste defiance, as in the statement from Iran's armed forces, "The ploy of imposing sanctions on the Iranian nation is ineffective because the establishment and the people have succeeded in finding their path."

Still, there is a nice touch in one featured critique, from Alaeedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee: "The US move to impose sanctions on Iran is in fact imposing sanctions on their own firms."

On the international front, Tehran is claiming --- after a phone call between Brazil's Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki --- that the two will meet Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in the near-future to discuss further steps over Iran's uranium enrichment.

Inside Iran, there is growing concern over the health of teacher and activist Ali Akbar Baghani, who has been detained for more than two months.

UPDATED Gaza Latest (17 June): Israel "Eases Blockade"; Turkey Suspends Military Agreements with Israel; Reactions to Israeli Enquiry

UPDATED 1020 GMT: Would you like a story that might be even bigger than Israel's announcement of a revised blockade policy? Try this from Zaman:

"The Defense Industry Implementation Committee (SSİK) convened under the chairmanship of PM Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to take up the issue of military agreements and projects with Israel. Turkey -- which recalled its ambassador to Tel Aviv and cancelled three military exercises in the aftermath of a bloody Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara aid ship -- has shelved 16 bilateral agreements due to Israel's refusal to apologize for the killings or pay compensation.

Thus, all Turkish-Israeli agreements at the state level have been cancelled....

All bilateral projects in the field of military training and cooperation will be frozen; a $757 million plane and tank modernization project and a missile project worth over $1.5 billion have already been shelved. The majority of work on these projects was planned to be cooperative Turkish-Israeli efforts.

Gaza Flotilla Aftermath: Does This Video Show Israeli Commandos “Executing” Turkish-American Furkan Dogan?

UPDATED 0945 GMT: The Israeli Prime Minister's Office has announced that Israel will ease its land blockade on Gaza, expanding the number of products allowed into the area, including construction materials: "It was agreed to liberalize the system by which civilian goods enter Gaza (and) expand the inflow of materials for civilian projects that are under international supervision."

The statement said "existing security procedures to prevent the inflow of weapons and war materiel" would continue. There was no reference to Israel's sea blockade.

Both Turkey and Amnesty International have criticised Israel's plan for an enquiry into the military operation against the Freedom Flotilla, with three Israeli members joined by two international observers, Nobel Peace Prize winner David Trimble of Northern Ireland and Ken Watkin, former judge advocate general of the Canadian military.

The head of the Middle East and North Africa division of Amnesty International, Malcolm Smart, said: "The structure of the government-appointed committee brings disappointment. This was a missed opportunity." He added that the probe lacked sufficient independence from the Government to reach meaningful conclusions and that the findings of the committee would be unusable for future legal actions in regard to the events that occurred during the flotilla raid.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was quoted by Agence France Presse, "We have no trust at all that Israel, a country that has carried out such an attack on a civilian convoy in international waters, will conduct an impartial investigation.

In Ankara, ministers of the Erdogan Government clearly agreed on three points: Israel committed a crime and must acknowledge this; Israel must apologize to both the Turkish state and its citizens; and Israel must give compensation to the families of people it killed, to the wounded citizens, and to Turkish citizens who were forcefully taken from the Flotilla and arrested. Turkey's ambassador to Israel remains in Ankara.

The Turkish-Israeli tension is causing ripples in the US, with Jewish groups debating a response. “There are lines that mustn't be crossed, and we have seen over the last weeks those lines aggressively crossed,” said Jason Isaacson, the director of international affairs for the American Jewish Committee, and added: ”The dilemma is to honor the legacy of Turkey's hospitality and integration of its Jews in its society.”

The Jewish Telegraphic Agency also put out this "undecided" position. The organisation said:

The fragile consensus emerging from the establishment Jewish organizational leadership is that the relationship it has cultivated over the decades with Turkey is worth preserving -- at least for now.

However, speaking to to RFE/RL's Armenian Service on Monday, Washington Times journalist Eli Lake insisted that Turkey can no longer count on the backing of the powerful Jewish lobby in the United States in its efforts to block a congressional resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide.

He added, "One of the prizes of the Turks in their relationship with Israel was support from the American Jewish community in Washington. After the flotilla incident, I would say that that support for now has dried up."

Gaza Latest (15 June): US & Britain Welcome Israeli Enquiry; Abbas Opposes Lifiting of Blockade

UPDATE 0630 GMT: Mahmoud Abbas has denied the report that he opposed the lifting of Israel's blockade on Gaza.

Both the White House and Britain's Foreign Ministry moved quickly on Monday to welcome Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that Israel would hold an internal enquiry into the assault on the Freedom Flotilla, with the three Israeli members buttressed by former Northern Ireland First Minister David Trimble and Brigadier General Ken Watkin, a former judge advocate general of the Canadian Armed Forces.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs issued this official response:

The Latest from Iran (14 June): The 2nd Year Is Underway….

We believe that Israel, like any other nation, should be allowed to undertake an investigation into events that involve its national security. Israel has a military justice system that meets international standards and is capable of conducting a serious and credible investigation, and the structure and terms of reference of Israel's proposed independent public commission can meet the standard of a prompt, impartial, credible, and transparent investigation. But we will not prejudge the process or its outcome, and will await the conduct and findings of the investigation before drawing further conclusions.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague called the Israeli announcement "an important step forward" and said, "Clearly it is very important that it is a truly independent enquiry and a thorough investigation that the international community can respect".

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee quickly welcomed Washington's "dramatic and courageous statement", adding: "[We] call on the Obama administration to act decisively at the United Nations and other international forums to block any action –-- including alternative investigations supported by the Secretary General –-- which would isolate Israel."

Others were not as positive. Turkey continued to insist on an independent international investigation, as Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared, “We don't have any confidence at all that Israel will conduct an impartial investigation -- as a country which attacked a civilian convoy in international waters, thereby committing a violation of international law....Any investigation conducted unilaterally by Israel will have no value to us.”

Critics claimed that the "international" dimension of Israel's enquiry was already compromised by the appointment of Trimble, a fervent supporter of West Jerusalem. Ha'aretz noted that the Nobel Prize laureate --- ironically, the second laureate to be involved in this crisis, as Mairead Corrigan was a passenger on the Flotilla --- had joined the “Friends of Israel” initiative launched in Paris on 31 May, an initiative which includes  Israel’s former ambassador to the United Nations, Dore Gold, a close associate of Netanyahu.

In another Gaza development, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas said that the Israeli blockade should not be lifted before a reconciliation between his party Fatah and Hamas, Gaza's political leaders, and that the step should only come through a Palestinian Government led by the current Prime Minister of the PA, Salam Fayyad.

Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (7 June): Moving Beyond the Attack

2045 GMT: Back from an academic break to find that Israel has tried to set out the lines of an internal enquiry into last Monday's attack. Gregg Carlstrom reports, "IDF [Israel Defense Forces announces internal 'team of experts' to review flotilla operation, led by reserve general; other three members are high-ranking officers."

Gaza Flotilla: Israel “Passengers Linked to Hamas, Al Qa’eda, Terrorist Organisations”
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (6 June): Israel Blames “Islamist Mercenaries”

1330 GMT: More on the Turkish Line. The Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) gathered in Istanbul today; Israel, one of the 20 members, was absent. In his public briefing, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "Israel has the responsibility of accountability in front of international law. We have nothing to hide. It is Israel that has to give response to the international commission. If some countries are privileged and out of international law, let us know so."

Then Davutoglu made Ankara's next move in the chess game both over the Flotilla and over regional politics, "If Israel gives the green light to the formation of an international committee and is ready to answer questions of the committee, Turkish-Israeli relations will have a different course. Otherwise, Turkish-Israeli relations cannot be normalized."

Davutoglu reiterated, "If Israel thinks it has protected its national interests and rights, it should declare that it accepts formation of an international committee. Otherwise, it means that they are hiding some facts."

Pretty strong stuff, but gentle compared to the opinion of Israel's former Deputy Chief of General Staff, Uzi Dayan: "If the Turkish Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip Erdogan joins such a flotilla, we should make clear beforehand this would be an act of war, and we would not try to take over the ship he was on, but would sink it.”

1325 GMT: Sorry (Sort Of) for the Satire. The Israeli Government has apologised for a spoof video e-mailed by its press office to international media.

To the tune of US LiveAid's 1985 "We Are the World", the video shows "peace activists" singing, "We Con the World".

Mark Regev, the main spokesman for the Israeli Government, clarified, "I thought it was funny. It is what Israelis feel, but the government has nothing to do with it."

1230 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad came together for a public briefing in Istanbul. Erdogan said:

Thank you for accepting our invitation. We talked about the provocative attack against the humanitarian aid ship in which our people were there. And we cursed it once more.

The attack's targeting unarmed peace attendants increases the importance of the situation.

This shame of humanity against innocent civilians is violating international laws.

If one is to talk about terror in Mediterranean, it is Israel's state terrorism.

1200 GMT: Turkish President Abdullah Gul talked to Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority for 45 minutes. Meanwhile, a joint committee agreement was signed between Palestinian leader on foreign affairs, Riad El Maliki and Ahmet Davutoglu. According to Turkish daily Hurriyet, this agreement consolidates Turkey's political support and organizes the operational structure of Turkish aid to Palestine indefinitely.

1100 GMT: When asked whether military agreements with Israel are to be suspended or canceled, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said, "All agreements, including the military ones, are still in place."

1045 GMT: The Israel Defense Forces’ Operations Directorate has issued an order forbidding all IDF personnel from traveling to Turkey “out of fear for Israelis being attacked”.

1015 GMT: So when does the Flotilla crisis stop being a crisis? Well, it could well be when “new” news intervenes.

This morning last week’s events have been overtaken by reports that Israeli forces have killed four Palestinians on a boat off the coast of Gaza. The Israelis claim the men were wearing diving gear. The al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, the armed wing of Fatah [note: not Hamas], have told Al Jazeera the men were members of the group and were only conducting "training exercises".

Hamas security forces say a fifth man is missing and a sixth --- a senior member of the Brigades --- escaped.

Meanwhile, in an attempt to keep the Flotilla issue alive (and perhaps to make political capital from it?), Tehran is now saying that two aid ships of Iran’s Red Crescent will set sail with food, medicine, and appliances for Gaza in the near future. Iranian doctors and relief workers will be on board.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had announced earlier that it would provide naval escorts for any ships trying to reach Gaza, an offer rejected by Hamas.

Meanwhile….

An Israeli Parliamentary Committee has recommended, by a 7-1 vote, that Knesset member Haneen Zoabi should be stripped of special privileges to go abroad, the right to carry a diplomatic passport, and the right to have the state cover litigation fees incurred while serving in the Knesset.

A battle of words and videos continues over Ken O’Keefe, one of five passengers on the Mavi Marmara accused by Israel of having links to “terrorist organisations”.

An injured O’Keefe appeared in a video claiming that Israelis were aggressors during the Monday attack and that passengers seized weapons to stop the killing.  He has also been interviewed by Al Jazeera about his relationship with Palestinian groups.