Turkey Inside Line: Israel's Unmanned Planes, Iran's Uranium, Trouble with the EU, and More

Turkish-Made Drones to Take Over from Israeli Herons?: Turkish sources stated that the design, detail production, and assembly of the Turkish MALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle have been completed and first test flights will be carried out done in the second half of 2010.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRQtM6xzRDI[/youtube]

Turkey Video Special: Prime Minister Erdogan’s 50 Minutes on US Television (29 June)

Director-General Muharrem Dortkasli said, "We can sell this vehicle for use by many friends and allies. That is our project."

Turkey's Call for Implementation of Iran's Nuclear Swap Deal: Turkey has called on Iran and Western powers to implement the nuclear fuel swap agreement, starting talks as soon as possible.

On Monday, responding to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s remarks that Iran would not join discussions until late August, Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Burak Özügergin said:

If they do not sit down and talk, we will be in a worse-off situation this time next year. Time is working against a solution.

We would like this swap deal to be implemented and for negotiations to be held to resolve outstanding issues to secure a peaceful settlement to the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program.

Visa Requirements Lifted with Indonesia: On Tuesday, following a meeting between Turkish President Abdullah Gül and Indonesian President Susilo Bambangu Yudhoyono, agreement was reached to lift mutual visa requirements.

The approach on visas has been a major foreign policy strategy for the Erdogan Government. Requirements have been lifted with Syria, Pakistan, Albania, Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Russia, Iran, and other countries.

Turkey and Indonesia also signed eight agreements including cooperation between defense industries, cultural exchange programmes, and sea transportation . The two presidents agreed to increase the trade volume from the current $1.5 billion to $10 billion in the medium-term.

Turkey-EU Relations: Diplomatic sources expect the next chapter of European Union negotiations, focusing on food safety, veterinary safety, and phytosanitation, to be opened at an intergovernmental conference in Brussels on Wednesday.

There are 35 chapters that Turkey needs to fulfill to attain EU membership. Twelve have been opened, but 18 of the other 23 have been blocked, including eight relating to Ankara'ss failure to open its borders to EU member Cyprus.

Turkish Foreign Minister Spokesman Burak Özügergin said:

We expect consistency from the EU. You don’t open negotiation chapters but then say, [The] axis is shifted." The EU should be coherent.

There are 18 chapters which are blocked and we expect Belgium's rotating EU presidency to remove defects caused by the EU in the following period. The EU should consider where it wants to go with Turkey. Turkey recognizes EU membership as a strategic target.

Turkey-Russia Competition: Following the G20 summit in Toronto over the weekend, Turkey and Russia have opened a competition to host the bloc’s 2013 meeting.

Arkady Dvorkovich, a consultant to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, said :

As all we know, the next summit in 2011 will be held in South Korea. The 2012 summit will be held in Mexico. Russia wants to host the 2013 gathering. On Sunday, the Russian government made its application. We know that Turkey has also already applied.

Gaza Latest: Israel Warns Iranian & Lebanese Flotillas; UN Calls for Lifting of Blockade

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Cabinet decision to ease the land blockade, allowing more products into the Gaza Strip, would weaken Hamas's hand while forging a ecurity consensus against the "satellites" of Iran and Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah. He said:

This is the best decision for Israel because it pulls Hamas’s main propaganda claim out from under it, and allows us and our friends in the world to unite around our real security needs.

The ayatollahs’ regime in Iran stands behind the Iranian boats. Hezbullah stands behind the Lebanese flotilla, even though they are trying to hide it. One must understand that these are attempts by Iran and Hezbullah to break the naval and security blockade of Hamas – and that is why yesterday’s cabinet decision was so important.

Gaza Special: Meeting the “Terrorist” Ladies of Lebanon’s Mariam Flotilla (Narwani)

A day later, Iran's state television reported that the ship Infants of Gaza would sail Sunday for Gaza, carrying 1,100 tons of relief supplies and 10 pro-Palestinian activists. Egyptian transportation official Mohammad Abdelwahab said Cairo would not prevent the Iranian ship from passing through the Suez Canal.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi responded with two important points. He said that Israel must not allow Gaza to become an Iranian port and added: "For those who are truly concerned about the [humanitarian] situation in Gaza and wants to bring medical supplies, they are welcome to dock in Ashdod. We will examine [the cargo] and let it in if needed."

Commenting on the Navy probe on the attack on the Freedom Flotilla, Ashkenazi said that "Following initial investigations, the fighters acted superbly under the circumstances."

In Lebanon,  the Naji al-Ali has received Lebanon's green light to depart for Cyprus. The second ship, Mariam, is still awaiting permission.

Noting Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak's  assertion on Monday that Lebanon would be responsible for any "violent and dangerous confrontation", Lebanese Foreign Minister Ali Asham responded on Tuesday that "Israel will be held fully responsible for any attack on Lebanon".

Barak also urged UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to shelve plans for a UN-backed independent investigation. He said:

As long as new flotillas are in the preparation, it's probably better to leave it [a UN investigation] on the shelf for a certain time.

We are moving ahead with our independent investigation, which we believe is clearly independent, reliable, credible and should be allowed to work.

As for the blockade, Christopher Gunness, spokesman of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, said to Reuters that only a complete lifting of restrictions will satisfy the agency:

The Israeli strategy is to make the international community talk about a bag of cement here, a project there. We need full unfettered access through all the crossings.

The list of restricted goods is a moving target. We are never told this is banned and that is banned. Israel's blockade became a blockade against the UN.

The Quartet (the United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations) continued to emphasise not only the "remaining unsustainable situation" in Gaza but also Israel's "legitimate security concerns".

On Tuesday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry joined the international community with a released statement saying that Israel's decision to ease the blockade on Gaza a "positive" but "insufficient" step.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel Eases Gaza Blockade, Internal Probe on Flotilla Raid Concludes, Obama-Netanyahu Meeting

Israel Votes on "Eased" Blockade: Senior cabinet ministers on Sunday approved steps toward easing Israel's blockade.

The Prime Minister's Office said that Israel would release "as soon as possible" a detailed list of goods that would not be allowed into the Gaza Strip. PM Benjamin Netanyahu said, "Israel seeks to keep out of Gaza weapons and material that Hamas uses to prepare and carry out terror and rocket attacks toward Israel and its civilians. All other goods will be allowed into Gaza."

Middle East Inside Line: US & EU Back Israel on “Eased Blockade”, Lebanon-Israeli Crisis?, Egypt’s Manoeuvre, and More…

Hamas called the Israeli step a "deception" and said that the blockade must be lifted entirely.

Israel's Army Radio quotes Mahmoud Zahar as saying that Hamas would never change its policy of 'resistance' against Israel. In an interview with Al Quds, Zahar then allegedly targeted the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah and said that "rocket launches should happen in the West Bank as well [as Gaza]" He blamed the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas of "fighting the 'resistance'" and added that it was not Hamas that took over Gaza, but in fact President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement that had seized the power in the West Bank, aided by the Israeli "occupation".

Israel's Internal Probe Concludes: Israel Radio reported Sunday that a new investigation into the raid by the internal Israel Navy probe concluded. According to the report, during the mass offensive against Israeli soldiers, the commando unit was inadequately prepared, lacked sufficient intelligence, and was ill-used in its approach to the Turkish-flagged ship.

A commander involved in the attack said, "I still awake at three A.M. every morning and ask myself: Damn it, how did we not know more?", Haaretz reports.

Lebanon's Flotilla Not Moving: The Gaza-bound Lebanese flotilla is still in Lebanon, and it may not be allowed to depart since Lebanese law forbids a departing vessel to dock in a port under Israeli occupation. Sources also told the Arab daily Al-Hayat that organizers failed to appeal to the government for the necessary permits, authorizing their departure as well as their travel. However, it is still possible that organizers will submit a travel plan to a different destination, perhaps Cyprus, and then change course during the course of their voyage.

US-Israeli Meeting: Washington also welcomed Israel's recent decision to ease the blockade on Gaza. "We believe that the implementation of the policy announced by the government of Israel today should improve life for the people of Gaza, and we will continue to support that effort going forward," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement.

President Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting in Washington, cancelled on 1 June during the flotilla crisis, has been re-scheduled for 6 July. Discussion is expected on two main issues., There is the U.S. position in the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which called for an international conference in 2012 for a Middle East free of nuclear weapons, called on Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and open its nuclear installations to international inspection, and called for the appointment of a special UN envoy on nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

Then there is the "progress" in proximity talks with the West Bank. US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell completed his four rounds of talks and the two sides are ready to talk again. It is uncertain, however, how the Israel's flotilla crisis and, more broadly, the issue of Gaza will affect the course of the talks.

Speaking at a Jewish Agency conference on Sunday, Israeli President Shimon Peres said that Israel's security remains a top priority for the Americans. Watch for signals as to whether that is the case before Obama and Netanyahu shake hands two weeks from now.

Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Turkey and Israel: How Serious is the Tension? (Yenidunya)

Last Thursday a group of angry Israelis, including former member of Parliament Alex Goldfarb and Meretz Party activist Pinhas Har-Zahav, announced that they will leave for Cyprus next week on a flotilla and call for an end to the Turkish occupation of the island.

On Saturday, the Lebanese newspaper al-Mustaqbal reported that  Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was willing to travel to the Gaza Strip to "break the Israeli blockade". The newspaper said that Washington told Erdogan to delay his plans.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (7 June): Moving Beyond the Attack
Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan

How to get out of this escalating political conflict? The Jerusalem Post reported a possibility after Rabbi Menachem Froman of Tekoa in the West Bank met Erdogan in Istanbul. Froman said that Erdogan is willing to help Israel secure the release of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier detained by Hamas since 2006.

However, as he met Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Istanbul on Monday (and just before Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived today), Erdogan reiterated his position on Gaza: "The time has come to lift the embargo on Gaza. We don't want an open air prison in the world any more." He also stated that Turkey can give Gaza everything it needs if Israel lifts the siege.