Israel's Political/Military Alternative to Turkey: Romania?

On Wednesday, the Southeast European Cooperation Process (SEECP), meeting in Istanbul,  issued a joint declaration: "We deplore the loss of life and injuries during the incident in international waters", a reference to Israel's raid on the Freedom Flotilla on 31 May. The 13-member-organization also stated that it wants "an impartial, independent and internationally credible investigation on this matter".

The Turkish daily, Hurriyet, points out that there was no specific condemnation of Israel because of an objection by Romania. 

Gaza Latest: Is Egypt Going to Make a Stand Against Israel? (Yenidunya)

That is politically significant, but it may also have military implications. Officials in West Jerusalem have told journalists, "As Turkey no longer allows the Israel Air Force to train in Turkish airspace, maneuvers may in the future take place over Romania."

Turkey: Kurdish Insurgents Kill 11 Soldiers

On Saturday, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) killed 11 and wounded 14 Turkish soldiers in an attack on a military post and a mine explosion near the border with Iraq. The first reaction of the Turkish daily Hurriyet was noteworthy: "250 PKK Members Attacked! Not a Clash but a Real War! It Lasted 5 Hours!"

The Turkish military responded by killing Kurdish separatists. Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) stated that F-16s have been bombarding northern Iraq alongside operations by commandos and the elite force, the "Maroon Berets".

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara’s Attack in Iraq; Relations with Israel

Turkish President Abdullah Gul condemned the PKK's attack and said that operations are going to continue without pause. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that PKK, once again, proved that it is a "pawn". He continued:

The terrorist organisation --- today once again --- is going towards bloody actions ...to sabotage the economic, social, and democratic development process recently initiated by Turkey which gained international importance .

The Chairman of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM), Mehmet Ali Sahin, responded to media in an unusual manner: "I am still waiting a satisfactory statement from the General Staff regarding our martyrs."

Opposition parties all targeted Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said that the Erdogan government is weaking the anti-terrorism struggle and called on the government to show the "required" resolution.

The leader of the National Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli, said:

The architect of this dark picture is Erdogan. The government is responsible! The National Security Council (comprised of the Chief of Staff, select members of the Council of Ministers, and the President of the Republic) must convene and the government must take an early election decision. State of emergency must be declared in the region! They must give up the Kurdish initiative!

The Deputy Chairman of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), Bengi Yildiz, criticized the government harshly but, unsurprisingly, from a very different position:

Even if you kill more 10-20-100 thousand people, even if you put 10,000 people in prisons, even if you kill not just one but 20 MPs of BDP, even if you kill all mayors and put them in prisons, you cannot solve this problem with violence, oppression and tyranny!

We Kurds have a famous statement for this: "We hit the full pot with an empty one", so  we have nothing to lose. Let those who have full pots think!

Yildiz's public statement was interpreted as a "threat" by most Turkish newspapers.

Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (6 June): Israel Blames "Islamist Mercenaries"

2030 GMT: Turkey's minister of energy and natural resources, Taner Yildiz, has announced that there will be no new energy or water projects with Israel until relations between the two countries improve: "At a time when we are focused on the humanitarian aspects of what Israel did, we can't talk about commercial and economic matters. We won't start any project with Israel until relations with them have been normalized."

NEW Gaza Flotilla: Israel "Passengers Linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, Terrorist Organisations"
Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (5 June): Israel Forces Board the Rachel Corrie

1920 GMT: A group of senior Israel Navy officers have publicly called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to establish an independent and external commission of inquiry to investigate the Mavi Marmara raid: "We believe that the operation ended in a disaster on a military and diplomatic level," the reserve officers who served as commanders of Navy ships wrote in the letter.


1845 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the dramatic press release from the Israeli military that five of the passengers of the Mavi Marmara are linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, and other "terrorist organisations".

1815 GMT: This Should Be Interesting. Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, not noted for diplomatic subtlety, is reportedly planning to meet "with envoys and representatives of Israel, and Jewish communities in the US and Canada, to explain the Israeli government's position on the flotilla affair".

There are no indications Lieberman will meet US Government or UN officials during the trip.

1650 GMT: It appears that, contrary to earlier reports (1105 GMT), Israel will reject the UN's proposal of an international enquiry into the attack on the Mavi Marmara. Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to the US, has told Fox News, "We are rejecting an international commission. We are discussing with the Obama administration a way in which our inquiry will take place."

Mark Regev, the Israeli Government's primary spokesman, has just repeated the line on CNN.

1639 GMT: The Battle of the Photographs. We noted in our initial update (1045 GMT) that defenders of the Israeli military action have been circulating a photograph, taken from the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, that they claim shows passengers attacking an injured Israeli soldier.

Defenders of the Flotilla are now pointing out that the one picture is out of context: the full set of nine photographs from Hurriyet, Turkish newspapers, and other sources show the Flotilla's activists caring for Israeli troops (see inset photograph).

1635 GMT: The Free Gaza Movement reports that the five Irish passengers from the Rachel Corrie have been deported and will return to Ireland tomorrow.

1615 GMT: Israel has deported eight Flotilla activists to Jordan. Seven are from the Rachel Corrie; the eighth is an Indonesian who was injured in the attack on the Mavi Marmara.

No word on the other passengers of the Rachel Corrie.

1545 GMT: Blame Turkey, An illuminating clash in approach between two of America's largest newspapers: while The New York Times has an analysis noting the re-assessment amongst some US insiders of the relationship with Israel, The Washington Post's editorial team directs its fire at Ankara:

Western governments have been right to be concerned about Israel's poor judgment and botched execution in the raid against the Free Gaza flotilla. But they ought to be at least as worried about the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which since Monday has shown a sympathy toward Islamic militants and a penchant for grotesque demagoguery toward Israel that ought to be unacceptable for a member of NATO.

1230 GMT: Eyewitness Testimony. Journalist Abbas Al Lawati, who was aboard the Mavi Marmara, has posted the third part of his account, focusing on his interrogation by Israeli authorities.

1210 GMT: Israeli Foreign Ministry officials have said that West Jerusalem not apologize to Turkey for the deaths of eight Turkish and 1 Turkish-American activists on the Mavi Marmara.

A "top official"laimed that the Turkish demand for an official apology was mainly an excuse to allow Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut diplomatic ties with Israel.

The Foreign Ministry officials said they were surprised by the request for an apology from Turkey's Ambassador to the US, Namik Tan, who "was known to be a supporter of Israel".

(Hmm.... If a "supporter of Israel" is calling for the apology, I would think that Israeli officials might consider how serious the diplomatic situation has become.)

1130 GMT: The New Israeli Line. Speaking at the opening of a Cabinet meeting,Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced, ""Evidence shows separate group of violent Islamists boarded flotilla....[They] boarded the ship at a separate port, did their own provisioning, and were not subject to the same security check of their luggage as all the other passengers.”

The Israeli Defense Forces are briefing the press that a group of about 50 men of the 700 on board the Mavi Marmara were trained fighters recruited from the northwestern Turkey city of Bursa. None had ID cards or passports; each carried an envelope with $10,000 in cash.

1105 GMT: Ha'aretz reports that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has given Israel a proposal for an international committee of inquiry into the raid on the Mavi Marmara. The newspaper says that senior Israeli officials are recommending a positive response because Turkey will probably oppose it.

The committee would be headed by former New Zealand Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer, an expert on maritime law, and include representatives from the US, Turkey, and Israel. Ban made the proposal in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

1045 GMT: The immediate tragedy and dramas of two Israeli boardings of Freedom Flotilla ships may be over, but there is still a lot of uncertainty and political tension about today.

Israel's official line is that most of the activists from the MV Rachel Corrie, the ship seized by the Israeli military yesterday and towed to Israel's port of Ashdod, will be deported.

The Free Gaza Movement, however, says, "Nothing from the kidnapped passengers. [Nobel Prize laureate] Mairead [Corrigan]'s husband said no contact with her. Israel refuses to allow lawyers to talk to them."

The battle of words and pictures also continues. There are claims that Israel altered the audio on supposed communications with the Mavi Marmara (see Friday's updates for the Israeli version of the exchange), the ship attacked on Monday, to create the impression of passengers shouting insults such as "Shut up, go back to Auschwitz".

And discussion is heating up over photographs in Hurriyet,  the Turkish newspaper, showing an injured Israeli commando surrounded by passengers of the Mavi Marmara.