Afghanistan/McChrystal Watch: Petraeus Takes Over

1805 GMT: The official line, now reinforced by a McChrystal e-mail to press outlets, is that he resigned and was not fired.

1800 GMT: Two thoughts. 1) From the frying pan to the fire: David Petraeus is just as hostile as Stanley McChrystal to Obama's declared intention to withdraw troops by July 2011. 2) Who takes over Central Command and become Petraeus' military boss?

1751 GMT: Obama says, "It was a difficult decision I made today. Indeed it saddens me to lose the service of a soldier whom I have come to respect and admire." But this decision was necessary "for the strength of our military and our nation".

And with that Obama exits, taking no questions.

NEW Afghanistan/McChrystal Analysis: Hyperventilating Over the Tip, Missing the (Petraeus) Iceberg
NEW Afghanistan Revealed: US Hands Over Millions of $$…To “Warlords” (DeYoung)
Afghanistan Special: McChrystal and the Trashing of the President (US Military v. Obama, Chapter 472)
Afghanistan Document: The McChrystal Profile (Hastings — Rolling Stone)

1750 GMT: Obama is flanked during the statement by Vice President Biden --- one of the targets of the McChrystal teams in the Rolling Stone interview ("Vice President Bite Me") --- and General Petraeus.

Obama is now on the section of the statement on how super-fantastic Petraeus is.

1749 GMT: Obama now reinforcing his play for support by stressing decision was necessary because of responsibility to troops and demand to defeat Al Qa'eda: "Our nation is at war. We face a very tough fight in Afghanistan....We are going to break the Taliban's momentum. We are going to rebuild Afghanistan."

1743 GMT: Obama begins his statement. Have accepted McChrystal resignation with "regret" but "with certainty" that is right thing to do for US troops and war effort.

Obama stresses that decision not because of any difference on policy with McChrystal or "any sense of personal insult". He expresses "great admiration" for McChrystal and his service in Iraq and Afghanistan as "one of America's finest soldiers".

But "war is bigger than one man or woman", and "this is right decision to make". McChrystal's conduct in Rolling Stone interview "did not meet the standard that should be set by a commanding general. It undermines the civilian control of the military, the core of our democratic system, and it erodes the trust that is necessary for our team to work together to achieve our objectives in Afghanistan."

1725 GMT: CNN and Associated Press are reporting from sources that General David Petraeus, currently the head of Central Command, will take over the Afghanistan command from General McChrystal. This follows earlier leaks to CNN and NBC that Obama would "fire" McChrystal, who met the President for 30 minutes this morning but left the White House and did not attend a strategy meeting on Afghanistan.

That is pretty stunning, not because McChrystal is out but because Petraeus is effectively demoting himself from moving from Central Command --- where he is currently McChrystal's boss --- to the Afghanistan role.

Obama is making a statement within the next few minutes.

1430 GMT: The meeting between President Obama and General McChrystal, which lasted about 30 minutes, has concluded. The Afghanistan strategy meeting at the White House is at 1535 GMT --- will the general return for the discussion?

1325 GMT: Getting to the Important Point. A prominent activist ponders, "If McChrystal f**** up public outreach to Americans this often, how is he going to win hearts and minds of Afghans?"

1320 GMT: The Hot Tip? A "senior a

dministration official" has told CNN that the White House has asked the Pentagon to make a list of possible replacements for McChrystal.

1305 GMT: Beyond the Drama. A couple of commentaries to note, alongside our analysis this morning, that usefully note the policy issues beyond the McChrystal "crisis". Matthew Yglesias, drawing from his colleague Max Bergmann, writes:

The military can easily continue to pursue a McChrystal-style strategy on both the Afghan and US media fronts under different leadership. The more important question facing the White House is how they feel about that. A determined president will always prevail over the opinions of generals, but the political costs of attempting to do so can be quite high since military officials have a lot of prestige in American society.

(My caveat is the question as to whether Obama has ever --- when the crunch came --- been "determined [enough to]...prevail over the opinions of generals.")

And Juan Cole puts the challenge --- that will remain long after the Rolling Stone gathers moss --- to the President:

Obama needs to define an attainable goal in Afghanistan and then execute it swiftly. As it is, when he is pressed about what in the world we are doing there, he retreats into Bushisms: “So I want the American people to understand that we have a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future. That’s the goal that must be achieved.”

Well that isn’t a good enough reason to be in Afghanistan. There is no al-Qaeda to speak of in Afghanistan. And although insurgents and Taliban probably control about 20 percent of the country, they have not let al-Qaeda set up shop in their territory.

1255 GMT: On Day 2 of the Great McChrystal Balls-Up (with the reminder that we've posted the important story --- the US military v. Obama --- beyond the media noise), here's the latest....

General Stanley McChrystal, after his recall to Washington over his profile in Rolling Stone magazine, is now in the Pentagon for discussions before his meeting at the White House with President Obama. On the way into the building, he denied rumours --- spread by Joe Klein of Time magazine and picked up by other outlets from CBS News to Britain's Daily Telegraph --- that he had offered his resignation.

McChrystal told reporters, ""Come on, you know better than that.  No!"

The Latest from Iran (13 June): And So It Goes On....

2130 GMT: We close the night with two features. We bask in the glory of being filtered by the Iranian Government (though reports tonight say that all WordPress-based sites are being filtered), and we have the text of Mehdi Karroubi's interview with CNN.

1950 GMT: Containing the Clerics (cont.). Now Basiji are reported to be outside the office of Saeed Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

There is also claimed video of a hostile crowd, with one making a fiery speech criticising opposition figures, outside Ayatollah Sane'i's home, which Mehdi Karroubi reportedly visited.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyIzdSgkb5Q&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “Greens Stronger & More Mature Than Last Year” (12 June)
NEW Iran Special: EA Gets Highest Award from Tehran Government!
NEW Iran: The US State Department’s Comment on the Election Anniversary
NEW Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup “Greens 1, Darks 0″ (Lucas)
Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

1640 GMT: Containing the Cleric. Kalemeh reports that Grand Ayatollah Sane'i's home in Qom was surrounded by Basiji militia. The plainclothesmen chanted slogans against Sane'i  and Mehdi Karroubi, who was visiting a memorial service in the city.

Karroubi's son said his father's car was badly damaged by the militia.

1630 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azad University student activist Salman Sima was seized by plainclothes agents on Enghelab Avenue and taken to an unknown location.

Sima was also arrested in November 2009 and spent nearly 100 days in detention.

Kourosh Jannati, an Allameh Tabatabei University literature student, was arrested after reporting to the university’s security office. Aptin Pegah and Babak Ghiyasi, both Razi University students, were arrested in Kermanshah after a campus rally.

1625 GMT: The Battle Within. So we asked in the item below, "Establishment stalwart Abdolhossein Ruholamini may have defended the Supreme Leader, but what of the Government?"

Let's have a look at the answer:

The remarkable participation of people in support of the system on various occasions should not be construed as a pretext to conceal the inefficiency and incompetence of some state officials, [Ruholamnini] underlined.

Last year “I deemed it appropriate that president Ahmadinejad would not stay in the office…. At the time I was supporting another candidate and I believed that he was qualified and competent to become the next president, Ruholamini stated.

Ruholamini criticized the performance of the national TV prior and after the election in supporting a particular candidate.

Such performance gave rise to the belief among the public that the national TV is taking side, thus the root cause of some regrettable events after the election could be attributed to such impartial performance, he added.

Without providing a “tranquil environment” in the society based on “reason and understanding” it would be impossible to properly run the country, he explained.

Unfortunately a group of people who claim to support the principlist axioms has totally ignored moral principles and in order to harm their rivals resort to any immoral means, he lamented.

Under such environment, it is noticed that critics and those who are serving the system are removed from their duties under different pretexts.

“I should say that such an approach is not an appropriate strategy to resolve problems,” he added.

1500 GMT: The Kahrizak Legacy. Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei and the father of slain detainee Mohsen Ruholamini, has made an interesting manoeuvre in Khabar Online.

Ruholamini has declared that he is certain the Supreme Leader cares for the injured protesters. Fair enough --- Ayatollah Khamenei is covered.

But if the Supreme Leader is not to blame, what of the Government?

1400 GMT: US Puts Out Line on Human Rights. I'm not sure how we missed this yesterday....

The State Department has put out the strongest American statement on human rights in Iran since June 2009, calling for "the immediate release of all imprisoned human rights defenders" (and listing some of them by name).

We've posted the text in a separate entry.

1315 GMT: How Many Were Arrested on 22 Khordaad? Rah-e-Sabz amidst reports on Mashhad, Najafabad, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Shiraz as well as Tehran, says more than 200 were arrested in the capital.

1235 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Davoud Solemani has written an open letter to the Supreme Leader about "my interrogation with beatings and insults".

1225 GMT: How Many Were Arrested on 22 Khordaad? Human Rights Activists News Agency claim that more than 600 men and 300 women were detained at some point yesterday.

1145 GMT: Economy Watch --- All is Well Edition. Central Bank Governor Mahmud Bahmani has put out the message, "Iran will pay a guaranteed 10 percent interest on foreign investment…the Central Bank and Economy Ministry will guarantee the return of the principal and capital profit."

1115 GMT: Journalist in Exile. The Guardian of London features an article by Saeed Kamali Dehghan, a reporter who fled Iran last summer, leaving his family behind.

0815 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz, drawing from Iran Labor News Agency, claims that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking as chairman of the Expediency Council, condemned the heckling of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the 4 June ceremony commemorating the death of his grandfather.

0810 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Labor Report summarises the recent arrests of labour activists. Reza Shahabi of the Tehran Bus Workers Union is the most recent detainee, picked up yesterday morning at work.

0805 GMT: And in Southeastern Iran. RAHANA reports, "On Saturday June 12, 2010, a silent demonstration and hunger strike ceremony was held at the University of Sistan and Baluchestan. About 1000 people attended this ceremony from different ethnic backgrounds, including Kurdish, Lor and Baluch....At the end of this gathering, students held a large human chain and announced they would hold another gathering in case any disciplinary verdicts was issued for them."

0755 GMT: 22 Khordaad Around the World. While our attention was on the day inside Iran, rallies in more than 80 cities outside the country marked the anniversary of the election. Rah-e-Sabz summarises 28 events. A human chain was forged in Paris:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joWm9C98ZUc&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

There's video from Berlin:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc4xeZqaafU&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

And a picture from London:



0730 GMT: After the events of 22 Khordaad yesterday, which seemed to indicate that there are no conclusions --- just an ongoing political battle --- we offer two analyses: Josh Shahryar reviews the day, "What Happened and What It Means", while Scott Lucas takes his eyes from football's World Cup to blow an interim whistle and declares, "Greens 1, Darks 0".

We also offer a musical moment which may or may not have some relevance.

Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup "Greens 1, Darks 0" (Lucas)

There was a moment yesterday when the two big events of my day --- 22 Khordad, the anniversary of Iran's 2009 President election, and the England v. USA match in football's World Cup --- intersected.

Moments after I had seen video of defiant Iranians shouting Allahu Akbar (God is Great) from their rooftops, England's goalkeeper Robert Green --- sickeningly from an English point of view, wonderfully if you were supporting the ex-colonists --- fumbled an American shot into his own net.

Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

It took seconds for an observer to send out the connection, "Iran's Green has had a much better day than England's Green".

And, as  England the US eventually drew ("tied" if you're a Yank) 1-1,  another scoreflash: "Iran 1 (Regime own goal), Darks 0".



The morning after 22 Khordad, a narrow victory for the Iranian opposition in the latest game in a perpetual contest seems about right.

That outcome was not evident, however, as late as mid-afternoon. Many in the "Western" media, who generally had a terrible day with their Iran coverage --- a notable exception was CNN, whose Reza Sayah would be outstanding in his ability to bring in significant news from Tehran sources --- had declared victory for the Iranian regime, even before the opening whistle. (Some reporters, bizarrely, continued to do so at the end of 22 Khordaad, ignoring all the action to pronounce a "day that passed quietly.)

As of mid-afternoon, there had been little public movement. The headline of the "official" withdrawal of the request to march by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi carried over, with the only glimpse of demonstration coming in reports that there had been a protest at Tehran's Sharif University. Even the presence of the Iranian state was muted: there seemed to be few uniformed forces and plainclothes Basiji militia in the streets.

However, EA had gotten one piece of news from a correspondent that suggested there might be a change. From a reliable source in Iran, we learned that marchers in Tabriz would be coming out at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

Then, via a valuable source on Twitter (yes, the same Twitter that has been a punching bag all week for those trying to grab easy conclusions and headlines about the meaning of this year in Iran), we learned that demonstrators in Mashaad and Shiraz would be trying to assemble at the same time.

And then the reports from Tehran: students were assembling at Tehran University. Security forces were trying to block them from exiting the campus; however, other groups of protesters were moving across central Tehran in an effort to meet them. There were chants and clashes at Enghelab Square and Vali-e Asr Avenue.

For the next few hours, those reports spiralled to the point of confirmation. There had been scattered demonstrations throughout the centre of the city. Thousands (how many thousands?) --- despite all the Government intimidation, the threats of imprisonment and beating, the State media's denunciation of the foreign-supported fitna sedition, and even the withdrawal of the official sanction by Mousavi and Karroubi for the march --- had shown up.

Pieces came together. Students, some of whom had examinations on the day, had not appeared until their academic duty was done. Workers had waited to complete their jobs for the day. And one EA correspondent

Of course, some perspective is needed here. As on all occasions since last June, the security forces of the regime had prevented a mass gathering. This would not be millions or even tens of thousands in a single place, as there had been three days after the election. There would be no dramatic appearance by a Mousavi or a Karroubi or, perhaps needless to say, a Hashemi Rafsanjani.

But on this day, for this game, there did not need to be tens of thousands in one place. No "star" had to show for victory. All it needed was the thousands who had emerged.

Because "victory" on 22 Khordaad would simply be some public glimpse of protest. This was the mirror image of 22 Bahman (11 February), the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution and the last attempt at a mass demonstration. Then the bar of expectation was quite high and the outcome was disappointment. Now the bar was disappointment and the outcome, as day turned into night, went higher and higher over that challenge.

As an Iranian observer put it cogently, "Even one protester on the streets --- given all the threat and cost of being there --- is a small sign that Green lives."

And as another posted on a discussion forum, "“I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of ‘We Are Countless!)”

Now, those supporting the Iranian Government are going to respond --- indeed, some did prematurely yesterday, before the developments of the late evening and afternoon --- that these scattered gatherings do not constitute anything more than the shadow of a challenge. They will contend that the Green Movement's supporters will grasp at any straw to prove they are still in the game. They will disregard the numerous reports and even the glimpses that managed to get out of Iran despite all the regime's efforts at blackout. They may even try the line that, "well, at my particular spot in Tehran at one particular moment" --- even though there was the protests were never going to be in that spot, indeed when that particular moment was before the gatherings arose --- "I did not see anything".

Their points should be noted. So should these....

1. This was just the public tip of discontent, anger, and hope.

The reason that I am so hostile to the easy media line that the opposition/Green Movement was over/dead/mortally wounded is that EA, on a daily basis, has information about the disquiet over the Iranian Government and, in cases, the system. Usually, that discontent turns into a sullen resentment or a quiet, sometimes desperate wish that the situation will improve.

The private protest may not become public because organisation is difficult, with many activists imprisoned or abroad. It may be "silent" because a shout-out could lead to a loss of job, threats to a family, years behind bars.

But intimidation is not victory for the Government. And even the limited jump of private concern to public dissent is enough to stave off defeat.

2. The public dissent yesterday was "new" in this crisis in that it did not take place on a day already scheduled for commemoration (Tehran Friday Prayers, Qods Day, National Students Day, Ashura) by the regime. This protest had to make its own occasion.

And, to repeat, it did so despite the withdrawal of any "leadership" in the form of official sanction from an opposition figure.

In the immediate aftermath of the news that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they would not press for a permit to demonstrate --- and the implicit follow-on that they would be at home on 22 Khordad --- some concluded that this was a disappointing retreat.

Now, whether Mousavi and Karroubi foresaw developments or whether they anticipated them, their step leads to another conclusion: people took up Mousavi's call to show their dissent "by other means". No leader's call was necessary. No seal of approval had to be given before the moment.

That lesson now applies for each and every day beyond 22 Khordaad.

3. Almost as significant yesterday as the show of protest was the absence of the Government.

On the anniversary of his election, his supposed triumph over the "dust and tumbleweeds" who opposed him, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not on view. The Supreme Leader, who had rubber-stamped that triumph, issued no reflections or commands. The Revolutionary Guard did not make public threats or give public affirmations for their purported political masters.

There were some photos of Ahmadinejad on state TV, some derogatory references to Mousavi. Press TV put out its counter-narrative on the death of Neda Agha Soltan, "proving" foreign manipulation, "The Real Fake".

But this morning, the headline of the Islamic Republic News Agency has Ahmadinejad ignoring internal matters and pronouncing on the nuclear issue. Fars News? Not a single high-profile word on the state of Iran and the authority of Iran's State over its people.

A key political question --- perhaps the key political question --- for this last 12 months has been whether the Government would establish its legitimacy in the wake of the disputed election. And nothing yesterday pointed to that legitimacy.

4. A quick glance at the calendar is useful. For four months, there was no significant occasion on which to hang an opposition protest: no regime event to seize, no day with an obvious "hook" for demonstration.

Now the anniversaries come quickly: 48 hours from now is 25 Khordaad, which a year ago saw millions on the streets to challenge the election. Then it is 30 Khordaad, the day of last year's mass gathering which ended with defiance and the creation of martyrs like Neda Agha Soltan. Next month, there will be remembrances of other marches and other deaths.

The overriding question, as we put 12 June 2010 into the record book, may be this:

Did anyone think on 12 June 2009 that this political match in Iran would still be contested?

The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

2130 GMT: International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran reports that a heavy security presence in Mashaad prevented significant protest, with 10 people arrested.

2100 GMT: MediaWatch. The darkly humourous mis-reporting of the Associated Press (see 1840 GMT) of a "quiet day" in Iran --- an EA correspondent asked, "Did the reporter actually leave his room today?" --- is becoming a serious case of false "news". Both MSNBC and the Jerusalem Post are recycling the despatch as the definitive account of events.

To make matters worse, the BBC seems to have taken a pass on looking for news today, settling for a bland "we're not sure but this is what others say": "Iranian security forces have reportedly clashed with groups of people trying to mark the anniversary of the disputed presidential election in Tehran. Opposition groups say confrontations began in the evening as people left work and gathered in different areas."

That would not be so bad if the BBC had not left unaltered the wayward conclusion made by their correspondent at the start of the day: "The opposition seem to have run out of ideas and many Iranians are now reduced to sullen acquiescence."

*A sharp contrast is offered by Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post. Having written an exaggerated account of the Green Movement's demise on 11 February, Erdbrink puts forth measured optimism for the opposition today:

"There were so many plainclothes officers, that we didn't know who was with us or who against us," a protester said. "But people were not afraid at all, which must be worrying for the government."

Even though the demonstrations were far smaller and the atmosphere generally calmer than in the post-election protests last year, the fact that people decided to go out was remarkable, analysts said.

NEW Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
NEW Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

1940 GMT: As we near the end of the day, we've posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "22 Khordaad: What Happened and What It Means".

And don't forget to check out our set of videos from the day.

1840 GMT: Oh, Dear. Ali Akbar Dareini of the Associated Press --- posting only one hour ago --- summarises the day: "The one-year anniversary of Iran's disputed election passed quietly Saturday with little more than a subdued Internet appeal by opposition leaders for supporters to speak out on the Web against government repression."

To which I am afraid I will have to defer to a Twitter observer: "What were you smoking?"

1830 GMT: A RAHANA reporter claims that special forces threw rock and stones at fleeing people in Enghelab Square.

1750 GMT: An Iranian activist reports, "People move alongside cars showing V [for Victory] signs."

1645 GMT: Comment of Day? A protester reports on Balatarin, "I came back safe. Today I truly realized that we are countless. Today was great. It was better than we expected. (Let us revive our slogan of 'We Are Countless!)'"

1615 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Abdolreza Tajik, journalist, human rights activist, and member of the National-Religious Front, was arrested today for the third time in the past year.

1550 GMT: The Dangers of Premature Conclusion. Lindsey Hilsum of Britain's Channel 4, an excellent reporter, moves far too quickly to her keyboard this afternoon, posting 30 minutes ago: "The streets of Tehran are almost deserted today, it seems, apart from clusters of riot police and basij militia on motorbikes."

1538 GMT: We're counting at least 21 arrests so far: 12 in Enghelab Avenue, 6 near Tehran University, and 3 in Vali-e Asr Square.

Green Voice of Freedom claims about 1000 students protested at Tehran University.

1535 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Davoud Roshani, a member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been arrested.

1520 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN is reporting from a source that tear gas was used to disperse crowds at Vali-e Asr Square.

A crowd chanted "Ya Hosein Mir Hosein" at Enghelab and Palestine Avenues before being chased away by security forces.

1510 GMT: The Green website Rah-e-Sabz has finally posted a report on the "security atmosphere" in several Iranian cities today.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student Kamran Asa, brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa,  and Hamidreza and Ashkan Moseybian have been freed on bail.

1410 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from a source, "Police block off westbound Revolution [Enghelab] Ave towards Azadi Square."

1405 GMT: Radio Farda has now posted a summary of the clashes and gathering crowds in central Tehran.

1355 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency are reporting at least 10 people detained, with security forces using tear gas and baton, in Tehran clashes.

1345 GMT: Several witnesses have told Radio Farda about scattered clashes between people and security forces around Enghelab Square.

1335 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports three arrested, "blindfolded and taken away on motorcycles", in clashes at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran. Growing crowds on sidewalks are being chased away.

1325 GMT: We've posted video of a protest at Sharif University in Tehran.

1320 GMT: There are indications that, in addition to Shiraz (see 1220 GMT), there will be protests in Tabriz & Mashaad at 5:30 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).

1315 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: " 1000s of riot police in all major squares and intersections Tajrish, 7 Tir, Revolution [Enghelab] Avenue." Mehdi Sharakiz adds, "Enghelab is full of both people and guards. All book stores are closed." He adds that all streets to Enghelab are blocked.

Sayah adds, "Many Basij and security forces waiting in local schools and mosques."

1300 GMT: Clamping Down. Earlier today we noted that former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar had blogged about the disruption at the 4 June ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, ""This is another sign...that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible." (see 0545 GMT)

The sequel is that, according to Parleman News, Ebtekar's blog has now been filtered by Iranian authorities.

1245 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN: "Riot police out in force. 100s lining Azadi Avenue from Azadi Square to Revolution [Enghelab] Square."

1240 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from sources: "Packs of riot police roaming Azadi Ave. Basij waiting in mosque at Kaj Square".

An Iranian activist claims, "Plainclothes on their motorbikes are wandering and shouting 'Death to the traitors; to scare people."

1225 GMT: There is a lot of chatter about build-up of people around Tehran University (which would correspond with end of today's examinations) as well as attempts to gather at Vanak Square and chatting at Enghelab Square. There are also unconfirmed reports of students surrounded by security forces at Sharif University. We are monitoring before treating as confirmed.

1220 GMT: EA has absolutely reliable information from Iran that the protest in Shiraz is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. lcoal time (1400 GMT).

1200 GMT: A hat-tip to Abigail Fielding-Smith of The Independent of London: she posts testimony from "a selection of grass-roots activists", some in Iran, some who have fled, and summarises:

"Although some show signs of despair, they are determined to find new ways of keeping up their opposition. It is difficult to say how representative their voices are. With heavy reporting restrictions inside Iran, and many people afraid to communicate with foreign journalists, it is hard to gauge public opinion accurately.

Many who took part in the protests have lost interest in demonstrating, either because they fear the repercussions or because they lack faith in the movement's ability to change anything. The forces ranged against it are formidable: the might of the security establishment; the continuing, albeit weakened, power of conservative ideology in Iran; and the populist economic policies of Mr Ahmadinejad. Nonetheless, political change is often, as the activists interviewed here are starting to realise, a long game."

1145 GMT:  Conflicting reports over whether there is a visible security build-up in Tehran. Josh Shahryar posts video.

1140 GMT: We've posted a short but incisive comment by Pedestrian, "22 Khordaad: The Day We Chose to Live".

1050 GMT: Academic Corner. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 14 students at Kerman University have been detained. A total of 35 students were called to the university's disciplinary committee.

1040 GMT: Not a Diversion at All. The head of Iran's atomic energy programme, Ali Akbar Salehi, is quoted by Resalat: "In the next few months Iran will announce a new nuclear achievement in connection to the production of fuel for its Tehran research reactor."

1010 GMT: The First Demonstration? Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that retired workers of Pars Wagon Company in Arak have held a protest.

1005 GMT: Better Late than Never. Ahh, here comes Press TV's "objective" coverage of the anniversary:

"Iran's Press TV channel is to broadcast a documentary on the country's latest presidential election that was held on June 12 last year.

The Real Fake by renowned Iranian director Nader Talebzadeh that will be aired by the English language channel on Sunday provides realistic insight into developments in Iran before the election and the incidents after that.

The documentary seeks to resolve ambiguities that foreign audience may have about the presidential election. It includes footage that has never been broadcast on any TV channel, including some about the post-election violence and suspicious murders [hmm....Neda?; definitely not those killed in Kharizak Prison] committed in the days after the election."

The documentary also investigates the role of western media in the post-election developments in the country.

It provides facts indicating that the West has been preparing for a war with Iran after the election, which is introduced as an issue much more important than the issues surrounding the Islamic republic's 10th presidential election itself.

1000 GMT: Latest from the Streets. Cellphone and text service is reported normal. Some sources say Internet access has slowed; others say it is normal.

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran's main teachers' union has called for the release of all political detainees.

0800 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN, from Tehran sources, at 12 p.m. local time (0830 GMT): "Still no sign of police or security forces at major intersection and squares."

0733 GMT: We've posted a separate feature, "Daily Life in Tehran, One Year On".

0730 GMT: Reza Sayah of CNN reports from a Tehran source, "No sign of security forces or Basij in major intersections and squares." Iran Press News reports traffic in Tehran is normal.

0712 GMT: Meanwhile in Kyrgyzstan. The dramatic events this spring in Kyrgyzstan, where President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was forced to step down, are far from over. Violence around the southern city of Osh, a power base for Bakiyev, has killed almost 50 people in recent days, and thousands, many of them ethnic Uzbeks, have fled their homes.

0710 GMT: Marking 22 Khordaad. Reports that Iranian state TV now showing pictures of the President to mark his "victory" last year.

0700 GMT: Economy Watch. Aftab News launches another attack on the Government, writing that "Iran's economy has no steering wheel", with three months passing and no implementation of the 5th Plan.

0650 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online reports that, following Tehran Friday Prayers, there were chants denouncing high-profile member of Parliament Ali Motahari, who has been sharply critical of President Ahmadinejad.

At the same time, the fallout over the 4 June shout-down of another "establishment" figure, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri Esfahani has condemned the incident in a letter to Khomeini.

Hassan Rohani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has warned that, if the insults become usual, they might take down everyone, "even the planners".

0635 GMT: Protests = Foreign-Supported Terror. Press TV's website has 0 words about the anniversary of the election, preferring to headline yet another President Ahmadinejad announcement that Iran will enrich its uranium to 20 per cent (and thus does not need outside assistance to keep its Tehran Research Reactor operational).

However, Press TV' s current international programme is a not-so-subtle documentary that the "terrorist" "monarchist" group Tondar [Kingdom Assembly of Iran] is supported by the US Government. One of the allegations is that Tondar is linked to Radio Farda, the US Government-financed broadcaster.

And inside Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi has returned to the screen of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting after a year, albeit as a clear and present danger to the Iranian system.

0615 GMT: Why Mousavi Retreated. Kalameh, the website close to Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that the request for a permit to demonstrate was withdrawn because the Iranian regime was planning 2 blame Greens 4 violence on the day.

0545 GMT (9: 15 a.m. in Tehran): One Year Later, Another Day Forward? It is 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

Anyone who predicts what will occur today is either a bigger fool or a far smarter analyst than I. The official rationale for a march has been withdrawn by the foot-dragging of the Ministry of the Interior (which never, as far as I know, ever denied more than two of 10 requests by reformist groups for permits, but merely stalled and stalled) and the announcement of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Not just the heavy security presence today, but months of suppression and intimidation have disrupted the opposition and put fear into anyone who might dare show dissent openly.

Still some activists --- inside and outside Iran --- are talking of an appearance of protest, despite the risks. Whether that manifests itself and on what scale is beyond my most speculative guess at this point.

Meanwhile....

The Battle Over Neda

Iran's state TV channel IRIB 3 reportedly tried to get in a pre-emptive strike against protest last night with a documentary on Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old philosophy student killed last 20 June by a Basiji gunshot while observing a mass demonstration. No prizes for guessing that the programme would attribute Neda's death to a foreign scheme to discredit the Iranian regime.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rKJf7dVnMo[/youtube]

However, IRIB's effort was pre-empted in turn --- at least on the Internet --- by a new 33-second clip of her last moments. (Warning: Graphic)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk3sAI2nKRI[/youtube]

Political Prisoner Watch

RAHANA, complementing Internet chatter, writes that Iranian official in the Prosecutor General’s Office have warned student activist Majid Tavakoli, detained since 7 December, that "they have the power to do anything to him". The threats allegedly followed the publication of two letters sent by Tavakoli from Evin Prison, “For Change” and “We Will Build the Future.”

4 June Fall-Out

Massoumeh Ebtekar, Vice President in the Khatami Government, has written on her blog about last week's disruption at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, when his grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini was shouted down by hecklers and had to cut short his speech: "This is another sign, in the long string of events in recent years, that indicates a serious rift and distancing with the original line and thought of Imam Khomeini, now led by a minority that wills to cling to power by any means possible."

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (6 June): Israel Blames "Islamist Mercenaries"

2030 GMT: Turkey's minister of energy and natural resources, Taner Yildiz, has announced that there will be no new energy or water projects with Israel until relations between the two countries improve: "At a time when we are focused on the humanitarian aspects of what Israel did, we can't talk about commercial and economic matters. We won't start any project with Israel until relations with them have been normalized."

NEW Gaza Flotilla: Israel "Passengers Linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, Terrorist Organisations"
Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan
Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (5 June): Israel Forces Board the Rachel Corrie

1920 GMT: A group of senior Israel Navy officers have publicly called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to establish an independent and external commission of inquiry to investigate the Mavi Marmara raid: "We believe that the operation ended in a disaster on a military and diplomatic level," the reserve officers who served as commanders of Navy ships wrote in the letter.


1845 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, the dramatic press release from the Israeli military that five of the passengers of the Mavi Marmara are linked to Hamas, Al Qa'eda, and other "terrorist organisations".

1815 GMT: This Should Be Interesting. Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, not noted for diplomatic subtlety, is reportedly planning to meet "with envoys and representatives of Israel, and Jewish communities in the US and Canada, to explain the Israeli government's position on the flotilla affair".

There are no indications Lieberman will meet US Government or UN officials during the trip.

1650 GMT: It appears that, contrary to earlier reports (1105 GMT), Israel will reject the UN's proposal of an international enquiry into the attack on the Mavi Marmara. Michael Oren, Israel's Ambassador to the US, has told Fox News, "We are rejecting an international commission. We are discussing with the Obama administration a way in which our inquiry will take place."

Mark Regev, the Israeli Government's primary spokesman, has just repeated the line on CNN.

1639 GMT: The Battle of the Photographs. We noted in our initial update (1045 GMT) that defenders of the Israeli military action have been circulating a photograph, taken from the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, that they claim shows passengers attacking an injured Israeli soldier.

Defenders of the Flotilla are now pointing out that the one picture is out of context: the full set of nine photographs from Hurriyet, Turkish newspapers, and other sources show the Flotilla's activists caring for Israeli troops (see inset photograph).

1635 GMT: The Free Gaza Movement reports that the five Irish passengers from the Rachel Corrie have been deported and will return to Ireland tomorrow.

1615 GMT: Israel has deported eight Flotilla activists to Jordan. Seven are from the Rachel Corrie; the eighth is an Indonesian who was injured in the attack on the Mavi Marmara.

No word on the other passengers of the Rachel Corrie.

1545 GMT: Blame Turkey, An illuminating clash in approach between two of America's largest newspapers: while The New York Times has an analysis noting the re-assessment amongst some US insiders of the relationship with Israel, The Washington Post's editorial team directs its fire at Ankara:

Western governments have been right to be concerned about Israel's poor judgment and botched execution in the raid against the Free Gaza flotilla. But they ought to be at least as worried about the Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which since Monday has shown a sympathy toward Islamic militants and a penchant for grotesque demagoguery toward Israel that ought to be unacceptable for a member of NATO.

1230 GMT: Eyewitness Testimony. Journalist Abbas Al Lawati, who was aboard the Mavi Marmara, has posted the third part of his account, focusing on his interrogation by Israeli authorities.

1210 GMT: Israeli Foreign Ministry officials have said that West Jerusalem not apologize to Turkey for the deaths of eight Turkish and 1 Turkish-American activists on the Mavi Marmara.

A "top official"laimed that the Turkish demand for an official apology was mainly an excuse to allow Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut diplomatic ties with Israel.

The Foreign Ministry officials said they were surprised by the request for an apology from Turkey's Ambassador to the US, Namik Tan, who "was known to be a supporter of Israel".

(Hmm.... If a "supporter of Israel" is calling for the apology, I would think that Israeli officials might consider how serious the diplomatic situation has become.)

1130 GMT: The New Israeli Line. Speaking at the opening of a Cabinet meeting,Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced, ""Evidence shows separate group of violent Islamists boarded flotilla....[They] boarded the ship at a separate port, did their own provisioning, and were not subject to the same security check of their luggage as all the other passengers.”

The Israeli Defense Forces are briefing the press that a group of about 50 men of the 700 on board the Mavi Marmara were trained fighters recruited from the northwestern Turkey city of Bursa. None had ID cards or passports; each carried an envelope with $10,000 in cash.

1105 GMT: Ha'aretz reports that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has given Israel a proposal for an international committee of inquiry into the raid on the Mavi Marmara. The newspaper says that senior Israeli officials are recommending a positive response because Turkey will probably oppose it.

The committee would be headed by former New Zealand Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer, an expert on maritime law, and include representatives from the US, Turkey, and Israel. Ban made the proposal in a phone call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

1045 GMT: The immediate tragedy and dramas of two Israeli boardings of Freedom Flotilla ships may be over, but there is still a lot of uncertainty and political tension about today.

Israel's official line is that most of the activists from the MV Rachel Corrie, the ship seized by the Israeli military yesterday and towed to Israel's port of Ashdod, will be deported.

The Free Gaza Movement, however, says, "Nothing from the kidnapped passengers. [Nobel Prize laureate] Mairead [Corrigan]'s husband said no contact with her. Israel refuses to allow lawyers to talk to them."

The battle of words and pictures also continues. There are claims that Israel altered the audio on supposed communications with the Mavi Marmara (see Friday's updates for the Israeli version of the exchange), the ship attacked on Monday, to create the impression of passengers shouting insults such as "Shut up, go back to Auschwitz".

And discussion is heating up over photographs in Hurriyet,  the Turkish newspaper, showing an injured Israeli commando surrounded by passengers of the Mavi Marmara.