The Latest from Iran (28 June): Remembering 7 Tir?

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. In a decree issued on Monday,the Supreme Leader gave amnesty to 708 prisoners,based on the recommendations of the Iranian judiciary. No indication that any of those whose sentences were commuted were political prisoners.

1800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Finally, information arrives of French oil company Total's cessation of supplies to Iran (see 1020 GMT). "I can confirm that we have suspended [gasoline] sales to Iran," said spokesman Paul Floren.

1745 GMT: Loss of Expertise in State Department? Laura Rozen reports that John Limbert, the first ever Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran Affairs, is leaving his post in July.

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The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

Limbert was distinctive in the Department because he was a fluent Persian speaker and held a Ph.D. in History and Middle Eastern Studies. He was one of 52 Americans held in the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979-81.

Limbert is saying that he is stepping down because he has only a one-year leave of absence from his academic job at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis.

1435 GMT: Karroubi's 7 Tir Moment. Meeting families of those killed in the 1981 bombing, Mehdi Karroubi dec;ared, “Recent events and the attacks on the members of the Parliament and other senior and prominent political figures prove that those who are in power today are after eliminating and isolating the figures and revolutionary fellows. [They are after] not only a certain political party but even the independent individuals from the country and the scene of the Revolution."

Karroubi added, "Unity will never be achieved by words and slogans. Unity will never be achieved by applying pressure and force, arrests, long detentions, insults and disrespect of senior religious figures, intimidation and threats, unjust disqualifications, shutting down the press, preventing the activities of political parties, and using these kinds of ridiculous methods. Unity will not be achieved by calling the great nation of Iran 'dust and dirt'."

Karroubi concluded, "Comforting the families of victims, release of political prisoners, identifying and firm and legal confrontation with those who use violence against the people, lifting the ban on media and legal activities of the political parties, freedom of speech, tolerance and listening to the opposition as long as they don’t use weapons, and the return to the principles of the Constitution and the high values of Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution can be the essential steps toward establishing unity in the society.”

1430 GMT: Larijani the Nationalist. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani may be feuding with the President, but he is also trying to match Ahmadinejad phrase-for-phrase for Iranian defiance of the West. He has used a speech to a crowd in western Iran to address "the West": "You will have to bury your wish for shutting Iran's nuclear activities. The era that you could change conditions in Iran has ended. Today the (Iranian) people protect their national achievements and lay emphasis on them."

1325 GMT: The Universities Row. Rooz is claiming that, at the first meeting of Azad University trustees since the Parliament v. President argument over control, Ahmadinejad's appointed representatives were not allowed into the meeting. And Mir Hossein Mousavi was an invited guest.

Javan Online, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, is claiming that Rafsanjani and Mousavi have met to plot over the issue.

1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad "We Will, We Will Punish You". Unsurprising news of the day --- the President has chosen on 7 Tir to devote his attention to foreign challenges.

In an announcement which will no doubt bring much gnashing of teeth in Washington (or not), President Ahmadinejad told a news conference that Iran was prepared to return to uranium enrichment talks but only by late August, during the second half of the Muslim festival of Ramadan.

"It's a punishment to teach them a lesson to know how to have a dialogue with nations," he said. And he added the chest-pumping frosting on the cake with a warning to any power thinking of inspecting Iranian ships: "If they make the slightest mistake we will definitely retaliate."

Ahmadinejad's most notable reference to the internal situation was to claim, in the face of tougher US and UN sanctions, "If we decide today, we can halve our gasoline consumption overnight without damaging our economic growth."

1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that heavy prison sentences have been handed down to four student activists in Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.

1040 GMT: And Now Khamenei.... The supposed highlight from today's statement by the Supreme Leader: "One of the big dangers is that political propaganda by various parties, newspapers, and foreign media will affect the right channel of judgment and legal proceedings."

1030 GMT: Posing for 7 Tir. Ahh, here we go. "Hundreds" of Iranians have gathered outside the French Embassy in Tehran in response to a demonstration in Paris last week by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

The NCRI is the overseas political committee for the People's Mohajedin Organization of Iran and the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO). The MKO carried out the bombing on 7 Tir (28 June) in 1981 that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic.

1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. A spokesman for Spain's largest oil company Repsol has confirmed that it is withdrawing from a contract to develop part of the South Pars gas field in Iran. Repsol's partner, Royal Dutch Shell, has declined to confirm whether it is withdrawing, although a spokesman said it will comply with any international trade restrictions.

(This is all window-dressing. Repsol and Shell suspended plans months ago, and Iran has already moved to give the projects to Iranian companies, including firms connected with the Revolutionary Guard.)

Britain's Financial Times is also putting out a report that France's Total is halting gasoline/petrol sales to Iran but, curiously, has no source for the claim.

0854 GMT: In Case You're Wondering. Why have I not been posting updates on the on-again, off-again, maybe-someday statements about an Iranian aid flotilla to Gaza? Well, because I never thought this was an initiative likely to come off, amidst the politics of Tehran and other countries.

For those keeping score, the latest report is that the Iranian Red Crescent has cancelled the sailing of a ship, blaming Egypt as well as Israel for preventing passage.

0850 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont.). More on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement for 7 Tir (see 0720 GMT). ...

The pro-reformist Radio Zamaneh publishes extracts and has no doubt that Rafsanjani is aiming at those in power: “The enemies have diversified and enemies disguised as friends have infiltrated our ranks....Divisiveness is called honesty, insult is called candour, lies are called tact, slander is called boldness and slogans are called insight.”

0745 GMT: The Regime and 7 Tir (So Far). There are no significant headlines in Fars News marking the 1981 bombing, and the Islamic Republic News Agency's reference is defensive, to say the least: a "member of the Assembly of Experts" says that the memory of Ayatollah Beheshti, slain on 7 Tir, does not belong to any one group.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian state media are headlining the opening of a new phase of a major steel complex in Natanz, with President Ahmadinejad attending the ceremony.

Not-so-happy news, carried by Iranian Labor News Agency, is that malnutrition amongst children has risen 3 percent during the Ahmadinejad Government.

0725 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, has asserted that "the independence of judiciary"" has not yet been seen.

Larijani's brother Sadegh is the head of the judiciary.

0720 GMT: Rafsanjani's Statement. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, in a meeting with the families of the martyrs of the 1981 bombing, that today anyone who causes division among the people --- even if it claim good intentions --- is making a great and strategic mistake: “Today in a situation that we need unity more than before some visible and invisible hands are playing the division drum.”

As always, those who cause division are not specifically identified by Rafsanjani; however, he did give an important signal by strongly condemning the attacks against senior clerics and the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini by pro-government groups.

0700 GMT: Today is the 29th anniversary of the bombing in Tehran that killed 73 leading officials of the young Islamic Republic, including the head of judiciary, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

We'll be having a look to see how the day is commemorated, but early signs are that it will be accompanied, if not overshadowed, by the tensions within the current Republic. The Beheshti family, in a pointed protest, have already cancelled a memorial ceremony, and reformist groups and opposition groups have pointed to 7 Tir as a reminder of the betrayals of the Government. As the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri declare today, "It is not the Revolution that eats its children, but rather the opportunists that were opposed to the Revolution in the past, who change colour and destroy the children of the Revolution.”

Meanwhile....

Iran: Summary of the New US Sanctions

The US State Department has issued a summary noting that President Obama has "welcomed new penalties approved by the U.S. Congress" against Iran --- in other words, he will sign the bill into law --- and outlining the provisions:

• The legislation approved by Congress requires U.S. banks to prohibit or impose strict conditions on “correspondent” or payable through accounts of any foreign banks working with certain Iranian entities, especially Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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• Penalties would be imposed on U.S. banks if their foreign subsidiaries are doing business with the Revolutionary Guard Corps or any of its companies or affiliates.

• The legislation sanctions any company worldwide that exports gasoline or other refined petroleum products to Iran, or that provides Iran with goods or services that help it expand its own production of petroleum products. And any companies that finance, broker or underwrite the shipments, or deliver the gasoline or sell the production technology, also would be subject to U.S. sanctions.

• The legislation gives the president a number of choices of possible sanctions to impose that include restrictions on foreign exchange, banking transactions and property transactions.

• It also grants the president authority to waive sanctions on a company for 12 months on a case-by-case basis.

• The legislation also requires the president to compile a public list of individuals in Iran who are complicit in human rights violations — and would ban them from receiving U.S. visas and would freeze their financial assets held in U.S. banks.

• Any company that provides Iran with technology or equipment that would restrict free speech could not receive U.S. government contracts.

• Finally, the legislation imposes export controls to stop the illegal export of sensitive technology to Iran through other countries and would allow the president to impose severe export restrictions to countries that will not cooperate.

Afghanistan Analysis: McChrystal, Counter-Insurgency, and Blaming the Ambassador (Mull)

EA correspondent Josh Mull is the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. He also writes for Rethink Afghanistan:

Supporter's of General Stanley McChrystal's counterinsurgency policy are heart-broken over his firing.  Very few COINdinistas took the position that McChrystal should be permitted to undermine civilian control of policy, as he did so plainly in the Rolling Stone piece; however, they put out the line, "He's our only hope", with warnings about ruining the war effort.

They also want revenge.

The target of this vengeance is quite clear: Karl Eikenberry, US Ambassador to Afghanistan. Take a look at these snippets from across the blogosphere:

Josh Shahryar:

When McChrystal finally got troops, he had to figure out a way around Eikenberry’s meddling into what was supposed to be his operation.

Bouhammer:

So now I am waiting for that POS [piece of s***] Eikenberry to be fired along with that ineffective Holbrooke. The relationship between the military and civilian leadership in Afghanistan is a two-way street. If the Ambassador and Special Envoy don’t get along with [Afghan President] Karzai and cannot influence him or even get a meeting with him, then they need to be FIRED asap and some people need to be put into place that can be effective at their job and get along with the military leadership.

Anonymous at Danger Room:

In fact, one e-mails: “It would be a travesty if we fired McChrystal and kept Eikenberry.”

Not only is McChrystal the “only one with any sort of relationship with [Afghan president Hamid] Karzai,” says this civilian advisor to the McChrystal-led International Security Assistance Force. Eikenberry “has no plan, didn’t get COIN [counterinsurgency] when he was the commander and still doesn’t.” Plus, the advisor adds: “The Embassy hates Eik. That’s not necessarily an indictment (I’m no fan of the Embassy). But it contributes to the dysfunction and it means that half the Embassy is focused on keeping Eik in line.”

Streetwise Professor:

Eikenberry was a backstabber from day one.

See the narrative building? McChrystal was doing a good job (they've leaked red meat to give pro-McChrystal progressives some lefty cover), it was that "POS Eikenberry" and his "meddling" that are really at fault. He's a backstabber and dysfunctional. McChrystal's violation of the relationship between civilian government and the military is no longer at issue; it's practically ignored.

McChrystal and Eikenberry have been feuding for some time now, so it's no surprise he draws the most wrath from the general's dismissal. But if we actually look closer at the tension between Eikenberry and McChrystal, we see that the Eikenberry-haters are way off base. Their attacks are at best childish displays of sour grapes; at worst, they are a fundamental misunderstanding of their own strategy.

Ambassador Eikenberry is not at fault here. In fact, Eikenberry was right all along.

What is this feud between McChrystal and Eikenberry about? It's usually described very ambiguously, a disagreement over "implementation" of the strategy or something like that. But, in fact, it is a few specific actions which amount to the battle between general and ambassador over conduct of the war.

From the Washington Post:

At times their differences over strategy have been public, particularly after two of Eikenberry's cables to Washington last year were leaked to the news media. The cables warned that McChrystal's request for new troops might be counterproductive as Karzai was "not an adequate strategic partner." McChrystal's staff members were particularly upset that they weren't made aware of Eikenberry's position before he sent the cables to Washington, they said in interviews.

Eikenberry has resisted some of McChrystal's wartime experiments. The ambassador refused to release funds to expand a military effort to turn villagers into armed guards. He opposed one Army brigade's plan to form an anti-Taliban alliance with a Pashtun tribe and funnel it development money. He criticized the military's proposal to buy generators and diesel fuel for the energy-starved city of Kandahar and supported a longer-term hydroelectric dam project.

In each of these cases, including the disagreement over the energy situation in Kandahar, it's clear that Eikenberry has had a better understanding of COIN strategy, the blending of civilian nation building with military combat. Eikenberry consistently prioritized governance, rule of law, and other long-term objectives over McChrystal's short-term concerns about winning battles and killing the enemy.

Stabilizing Afghanistan, not winning battles, is what counterinsurgency is supposedly all about. And yet Eikenberry is made out to be the bad guy.

Counterinsurgency requires the dual (dueling?) roles of military leader and diplomatic leader. As COINdinistas like to say, there has to be "unity of effort." Both sides have to work together. But now what we hear from them is that the McChrystal should have had free rein to do whatever he wanted while anything Eikenberry did was "meddling", some sort of illegitimate interference with the all-important war effort. Do the sellers of COIN even understand their own strategy? It's not clear that they do.

Why would Eikenberry dare question our military leaders? Why would he see Karzai as "not an adequate strategic partner?" Possibly because Karzai is corrupt and sits atop an illegitimate government that functions only as an organized criminal enterprise?

Why would Eikenberry oppose arming and bribing local militias? Could it be because support from the military legitimizes these groups, even though they're outlaws that pillage Afghans just the same, if not worse, than the Taliban does, in addition to undermining the central government in Kabul?

Boy, that Eikenberry sure is a jerk for pointing all this stuff out.

When we add up all the leaked cables, the wartime experiments, the history of their involvement in the war, etc, we see the full picture of Eikenberry's trespasses against McChrystal.

The High Crimes and Treason of Ambassador Karl Eikenberry:

• Failing to decisively win the war in Afghanistan when all attention and resources were focused on Iraq


• Leaking important information about the war to the press


• Resisting "short-sighted" military domination of reconstruction/nation building efforts


• Opposing the escalation of 30,000 more US troops


• Criticizing the corruption and illegitimacy of Hamid Karzai


• Opposing a US strategic security guarantee with Karzai's illegitimate administration


• Opposing Karzai's CIA-narco-lord brother having a role in the government


• Opposing formation of militias which undermine the government


• Opposing bribes of development money which corrupt and distort rule of law, nation building, etc


• Opposing short-term energy solutions which are too expensive and cripple an already broken central government

Is it clear why everyone hates Eikenberry so much? No? I don't understand it either.

Don't take any of this the wrong way. Eikenberry is not a saint, a war hero, or even particularly effective in his conflicts with McChrystal. The point here is that Eikenberry was right. He was right to be transparent about strategic deliberations. He was right to oppose the military's faulty tactics. He was right to oppose the escalation of more troops. He was right about all of these arguments with McChrystal, and with the Obama administration itself.

Obviously there is plenty of room left to criticize Eikenberry and the State Department as a whole. Their continued association with criminal organisations like Blackwater all but negates any positive outcomes they might reach, and certainly erases any honor or integrity the institution might have. Corruption is a thriving malignancy throughout our development operations, from the contractors at the bottom to the sleazy crooks at the top.

Then, of course, there's the State Dept's participation in the first place in COIN, which is a deviant, militarist perversion of traditionally civilian-controlled policies like foreign aid, development, and nation building.

General McChrystal's downfall was his own making. Eikenberry should not be thrown in with that, least of all as part of some pathetic blame game by McChrystal supporters. What's at stake here is the war in Afghanistan, and that is clearly hopeless and unwinnable. Firing McChrystal didn't change the fact that the US has absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing its war in Afghanistan, and neither will the revenge-firing of Ambassador Eikenberry. To get to the root of any of these problems, to really see solutions for countering terrorism and developing a stable Afghanistan, America's longest war has to end.

The Latest from Iran (13 June): And So It Goes On....

2130 GMT: We close the night with two features. We bask in the glory of being filtered by the Iranian Government (though reports tonight say that all WordPress-based sites are being filtered), and we have the text of Mehdi Karroubi's interview with CNN.

1950 GMT: Containing the Clerics (cont.). Now Basiji are reported to be outside the office of Saeed Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

There is also claimed video of a hostile crowd, with one making a fiery speech criticising opposition figures, outside Ayatollah Sane'i's home, which Mehdi Karroubi reportedly visited.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyIzdSgkb5Q&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

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1640 GMT: Containing the Cleric. Kalemeh reports that Grand Ayatollah Sane'i's home in Qom was surrounded by Basiji militia. The plainclothesmen chanted slogans against Sane'i  and Mehdi Karroubi, who was visiting a memorial service in the city.

Karroubi's son said his father's car was badly damaged by the militia.

1630 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azad University student activist Salman Sima was seized by plainclothes agents on Enghelab Avenue and taken to an unknown location.

Sima was also arrested in November 2009 and spent nearly 100 days in detention.

Kourosh Jannati, an Allameh Tabatabei University literature student, was arrested after reporting to the university’s security office. Aptin Pegah and Babak Ghiyasi, both Razi University students, were arrested in Kermanshah after a campus rally.

1625 GMT: The Battle Within. So we asked in the item below, "Establishment stalwart Abdolhossein Ruholamini may have defended the Supreme Leader, but what of the Government?"

Let's have a look at the answer:

The remarkable participation of people in support of the system on various occasions should not be construed as a pretext to conceal the inefficiency and incompetence of some state officials, [Ruholamnini] underlined.

Last year “I deemed it appropriate that president Ahmadinejad would not stay in the office…. At the time I was supporting another candidate and I believed that he was qualified and competent to become the next president, Ruholamini stated.

Ruholamini criticized the performance of the national TV prior and after the election in supporting a particular candidate.

Such performance gave rise to the belief among the public that the national TV is taking side, thus the root cause of some regrettable events after the election could be attributed to such impartial performance, he added.

Without providing a “tranquil environment” in the society based on “reason and understanding” it would be impossible to properly run the country, he explained.

Unfortunately a group of people who claim to support the principlist axioms has totally ignored moral principles and in order to harm their rivals resort to any immoral means, he lamented.

Under such environment, it is noticed that critics and those who are serving the system are removed from their duties under different pretexts.

“I should say that such an approach is not an appropriate strategy to resolve problems,” he added.

1500 GMT: The Kahrizak Legacy. Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei and the father of slain detainee Mohsen Ruholamini, has made an interesting manoeuvre in Khabar Online.

Ruholamini has declared that he is certain the Supreme Leader cares for the injured protesters. Fair enough --- Ayatollah Khamenei is covered.

But if the Supreme Leader is not to blame, what of the Government?

1400 GMT: US Puts Out Line on Human Rights. I'm not sure how we missed this yesterday....

The State Department has put out the strongest American statement on human rights in Iran since June 2009, calling for "the immediate release of all imprisoned human rights defenders" (and listing some of them by name).

We've posted the text in a separate entry.

1315 GMT: How Many Were Arrested on 22 Khordaad? Rah-e-Sabz amidst reports on Mashhad, Najafabad, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Shiraz as well as Tehran, says more than 200 were arrested in the capital.

1235 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Davoud Solemani has written an open letter to the Supreme Leader about "my interrogation with beatings and insults".

1225 GMT: How Many Were Arrested on 22 Khordaad? Human Rights Activists News Agency claim that more than 600 men and 300 women were detained at some point yesterday.

1145 GMT: Economy Watch --- All is Well Edition. Central Bank Governor Mahmud Bahmani has put out the message, "Iran will pay a guaranteed 10 percent interest on foreign investment…the Central Bank and Economy Ministry will guarantee the return of the principal and capital profit."

1115 GMT: Journalist in Exile. The Guardian of London features an article by Saeed Kamali Dehghan, a reporter who fled Iran last summer, leaving his family behind.

0815 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz, drawing from Iran Labor News Agency, claims that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking as chairman of the Expediency Council, condemned the heckling of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the 4 June ceremony commemorating the death of his grandfather.

0810 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Labor Report summarises the recent arrests of labour activists. Reza Shahabi of the Tehran Bus Workers Union is the most recent detainee, picked up yesterday morning at work.

0805 GMT: And in Southeastern Iran. RAHANA reports, "On Saturday June 12, 2010, a silent demonstration and hunger strike ceremony was held at the University of Sistan and Baluchestan. About 1000 people attended this ceremony from different ethnic backgrounds, including Kurdish, Lor and Baluch....At the end of this gathering, students held a large human chain and announced they would hold another gathering in case any disciplinary verdicts was issued for them."

0755 GMT: 22 Khordaad Around the World. While our attention was on the day inside Iran, rallies in more than 80 cities outside the country marked the anniversary of the election. Rah-e-Sabz summarises 28 events. A human chain was forged in Paris:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joWm9C98ZUc&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

There's video from Berlin:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc4xeZqaafU&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

And a picture from London:



0730 GMT: After the events of 22 Khordaad yesterday, which seemed to indicate that there are no conclusions --- just an ongoing political battle --- we offer two analyses: Josh Shahryar reviews the day, "What Happened and What It Means", while Scott Lucas takes his eyes from football's World Cup to blow an interim whistle and declares, "Greens 1, Darks 0".

We also offer a musical moment which may or may not have some relevance.