Monday
Jun282010
The Latest from Iran (28 June): Remembering 7 Tir?
Monday, June 28, 2010 at 13:21 
1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. In a decree issued on Monday,the Supreme Leader gave amnesty to 708 prisoners,based on the recommendations of the Iranian judiciary. No indication that any of those whose sentences were commuted were political prisoners.1800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Finally, information arrives of French oil company Total's cessation of supplies to Iran (see 1020 GMT). "I can confirm that we have suspended [gasoline] sales to Iran," said spokesman Paul Floren.
1745 GMT: Loss of Expertise in State Department? Laura Rozen reports that John Limbert, the first ever Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran Affairs, is leaving his post in July.
NEW Thinking Human Rights: Citizens, Technology, and the “Right to Protect” (Mazzucelli)
Shanghai Power Politics: China Shuts Out Iran (Shan Shan)
The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles
Limbert was distinctive in the Department because he was a fluent Persian speaker and held a Ph.D. in History and Middle Eastern Studies. He was one of 52 Americans held in the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979-81.
Limbert is saying that he is stepping down because he has only a one-year leave of absence from his academic job at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis.
1435 GMT: Karroubi's 7 Tir Moment. Meeting families of those killed in the 1981 bombing, Mehdi Karroubi dec;ared, “Recent events and the attacks on the members of the Parliament and other senior and prominent political figures prove that those who are in power today are after eliminating and isolating the figures and revolutionary fellows. [They are after] not only a certain political party but even the independent individuals from the country and the scene of the Revolution."
Karroubi added, "Unity will never be achieved by words and slogans. Unity will never be achieved by applying pressure and force, arrests, long detentions, insults and disrespect of senior religious figures, intimidation and threats, unjust disqualifications, shutting down the press, preventing the activities of political parties, and using these kinds of ridiculous methods. Unity will not be achieved by calling the great nation of Iran 'dust and dirt'."
Karroubi concluded, "Comforting the families of victims, release of political prisoners, identifying and firm and legal confrontation with those who use violence against the people, lifting the ban on media and legal activities of the political parties, freedom of speech, tolerance and listening to the opposition as long as they don’t use weapons, and the return to the principles of the Constitution and the high values of Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution can be the essential steps toward establishing unity in the society.”
1430 GMT: Larijani the Nationalist. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani may be feuding with the President, but he is also trying to match Ahmadinejad phrase-for-phrase for Iranian defiance of the West. He has used a speech to a crowd in western Iran to address "the West": "You will have to bury your wish for shutting Iran's nuclear activities. The era that you could change conditions in Iran has ended. Today the (Iranian) people protect their national achievements and lay emphasis on them."
1325 GMT: The Universities Row. Rooz is claiming that, at the first meeting of Azad University trustees since the Parliament v. President argument over control, Ahmadinejad's appointed representatives were not allowed into the meeting. And Mir Hossein Mousavi was an invited guest.
Javan Online, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, is claiming that Rafsanjani and Mousavi have met to plot over the issue.
1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad "We Will, We Will Punish You". Unsurprising news of the day --- the President has chosen on 7 Tir to devote his attention to foreign challenges.
In an announcement which will no doubt bring much gnashing of teeth in Washington (or not), President Ahmadinejad told a news conference that Iran was prepared to return to uranium enrichment talks but only by late August, during the second half of the Muslim festival of Ramadan.
"It's a punishment to teach them a lesson to know how to have a dialogue with nations," he said. And he added the chest-pumping frosting on the cake with a warning to any power thinking of inspecting Iranian ships: "If they make the slightest mistake we will definitely retaliate."
Ahmadinejad's most notable reference to the internal situation was to claim, in the face of tougher US and UN sanctions, "If we decide today, we can halve our gasoline consumption overnight without damaging our economic growth."
1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that heavy prison sentences have been handed down to four student activists in Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.
1040 GMT: And Now Khamenei.... The supposed highlight from today's statement by the Supreme Leader: "One of the big dangers is that political propaganda by various parties, newspapers, and foreign media will affect the right channel of judgment and legal proceedings."
1030 GMT: Posing for 7 Tir. Ahh, here we go. "Hundreds" of Iranians have gathered outside the French Embassy in Tehran in response to a demonstration in Paris last week by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
The NCRI is the overseas political committee for the People's Mohajedin Organization of Iran and the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO). The MKO carried out the bombing on 7 Tir (28 June) in 1981 that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic.
1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. A spokesman for Spain's largest oil company Repsol has confirmed that it is withdrawing from a contract to develop part of the South Pars gas field in Iran. Repsol's partner, Royal Dutch Shell, has declined to confirm whether it is withdrawing, although a spokesman said it will comply with any international trade restrictions.
(This is all window-dressing. Repsol and Shell suspended plans months ago, and Iran has already moved to give the projects to Iranian companies, including firms connected with the Revolutionary Guard.)
Britain's Financial Times is also putting out a report that France's Total is halting gasoline/petrol sales to Iran but, curiously, has no source for the claim.
0854 GMT: In Case You're Wondering. Why have I not been posting updates on the on-again, off-again, maybe-someday statements about an Iranian aid flotilla to Gaza? Well, because I never thought this was an initiative likely to come off, amidst the politics of Tehran and other countries.
For those keeping score, the latest report is that the Iranian Red Crescent has cancelled the sailing of a ship, blaming Egypt as well as Israel for preventing passage.
0850 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont.). More on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement for 7 Tir (see 0720 GMT). ...
The pro-reformist Radio Zamaneh publishes extracts and has no doubt that Rafsanjani is aiming at those in power: “The enemies have diversified and enemies disguised as friends have infiltrated our ranks....Divisiveness is called honesty, insult is called candour, lies are called tact, slander is called boldness and slogans are called insight.”
0745 GMT: The Regime and 7 Tir (So Far). There are no significant headlines in Fars News marking the 1981 bombing, and the Islamic Republic News Agency's reference is defensive, to say the least: a "member of the Assembly of Experts" says that the memory of Ayatollah Beheshti, slain on 7 Tir, does not belong to any one group.
0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian state media are headlining the opening of a new phase of a major steel complex in Natanz, with President Ahmadinejad attending the ceremony.
Not-so-happy news, carried by Iranian Labor News Agency, is that malnutrition amongst children has risen 3 percent during the Ahmadinejad Government.
0725 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, has asserted that "the independence of judiciary"" has not yet been seen.
Larijani's brother Sadegh is the head of the judiciary.
0720 GMT: Rafsanjani's Statement. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, in a meeting with the families of the martyrs of the 1981 bombing, that today anyone who causes division among the people --- even if it claim good intentions --- is making a great and strategic mistake: “Today in a situation that we need unity more than before some visible and invisible hands are playing the division drum.”
As always, those who cause division are not specifically identified by Rafsanjani; however, he did give an important signal by strongly condemning the attacks against senior clerics and the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini by pro-government groups.
0700 GMT: Today is the 29th anniversary of the bombing in Tehran that killed 73 leading officials of the young Islamic Republic, including the head of judiciary, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.
We'll be having a look to see how the day is commemorated, but early signs are that it will be accompanied, if not overshadowed, by the tensions within the current Republic. The Beheshti family, in a pointed protest, have already cancelled a memorial ceremony, and reformist groups and opposition groups have pointed to 7 Tir as a reminder of the betrayals of the Government. As the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri declare today, "It is not the Revolution that eats its children, but rather the opportunists that were opposed to the Revolution in the past, who change colour and destroy the children of the Revolution.”
Meanwhile....
tagged 7 Tir, Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranian Labor News Agency, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Javan Online, John Limbert, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Paul Floren, People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, Press TV, Radio Zamaneh, Red Crescent, Repsol, Rooz, Royal Dutch Shell, State Department, Total in Middle East & Iran
7 Tir, Ali Larijani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranian Labor News Agency, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Javan Online, John Limbert, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Sadegh Larijani, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, National Council of Resistance of Iran, Paul Floren, People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, Press TV, Radio Zamaneh, Red Crescent, Repsol, Rooz, Royal Dutch Shell, State Department, Total in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (40)
RE The Latest from Iran (27 June) 1815 GMT:
Ayatollah Khamenei gave a speech today at Tehran’s Abuzar Mosque, explaining that the first duty of women is motherhood.
Not according to His henchmen: Mansour Osnaloo’s Daughter-In-Law Suffered Miscarriage After Officers’ Attack
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/june/27//daughter-in-law-suffered-miscarriage-after-officers-attack.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...
RE 0720 GMT: Rafsanjani’s Statement.
Rafsanjani criticizes Iran's political milieu
Ayatollah Rafsanjani told his audience that “the enemies have diversified and enemies disguised as friends have infiltrated our ranks.”
He described the current political atmosphere of the Islamic Republic saying that in this milieu “divisiveness is called honesty, insult is called candour, lies are called tact, slander is called boldness and slogans are called insight.”
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/06/rafsanjani-criticizes-ira.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/06/rafsanjan...
RE 0730 GMT: Economy Watch
Rooz Online provides an alternative look at recent announcements by the Administration about achieving self-sufficiency in petroleum production:
Oil Minister: Self-Sufficiency In Two Years; Ahmadinejad: In Two Weeks
Propaganda To Counter Petroleum Sanctions
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/june/27//propaganda-to-counter-petroleum-sanctions.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem...
Choice bit:
....in a hurried plan, the deputy oil minister summoned domestic and foreign reporters to the Imam Khomeini refinery in Shazand, Arak. Reporters were transported from Tehran by helicopters to a refinery that is scheduled to double production to supply a major portion of the domestic consumption.
At the press conference, the deputy oil minister, who also heads Iran’s national refinery, said, “Despite of sanctions, we will reach complete self-sufficiency in petroleum production within two years.”
Meanwhile, foreign media outlets reminded their readers that several months ago the Iranian president had said during a speech that if sanctions are imposed on Iran the country will reach self-sufficiency in two weeks.
MP Hojjatoleslam Seyyed Reza Akrami, who represents Tehran in the parliament, has said that the students’ gathering in front of the parliament on Tuesday was an action that caused friction and division in society: “The existence of extremism in society is not proper and runs contrary to the interests of the nation, and the students’ insulting of the Majlis, the Majlis speaker, and MPs was an instance of such extremism.”
More: http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=222056" rel="nofollow">http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=...
RE Yesterday's Fars News Agency reports that Iran's oil exports fell by more than 24 percent or close to $20 billion during the past fiscal year.
Some reasons why - start at paragraph: "Mehrdad Khonsari of the Center for Arab and Iranian Studies in London notes Iran's oil exports have been dropping consistently since the 1979 Iranian Revolution."
http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/economy-and-business/Iranian-Oil-Exports-Fall-by-a-Quarter-During-Past-Fiscal-Year-97269664.html" rel="nofollow">http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/economy-an...
Isa Saharkhiz’s Dire Physical Condition at Rajai Shahr Prison
http://www.rhairan.in/en/?p=4831" rel="nofollow">http://www.rhairan.in/en/?p=4831
RE 0854 GMT: the on-again, off-again, maybe-someday Iranian aid flotilla to Gaza
The burning question on my mind is - how many female parliamentarians does Iran have? Because we have been assured that the lawmakers who got bumped from the likewise cancelled "Infants of Gaza" ship were going to join their comrades-in-aid on the Julia, a Lebanese women-only ship (supposedly still)going to Gaza via Cyprus :-).
The Last Ayatollah :The Green Movement’s bloody street protests may not have toppled Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—but they will :
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/07/the-last-ayatollah.html?from=rss" rel="nofollow">http://www.newsweek.com/2010/06/07/the-last-aya...
Russia criticises Iranian secrecy on nuke programme:
TORONTO: Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said yesterday that a CIA warning that Iran has enough uranium to build two atomic bombs was "worrying," and criticised Tehran's secrecy over its nuclear programme.
http://mmail.com.my/content/41315-russia-criticises-iranian-secrecy-nuke-programme" rel="nofollow">http://mmail.com.my/content/41315-russia-critic...
"Total " of France , halts petrol sales to Iran: report :
http://www.france24.com/en/20100628-total-halts-petrol-sales-iran-report" rel="nofollow">http://www.france24.com/en/20100628-total-halts...
Spain's Repsol pulls out of Iran gas project :
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE65R0JE20100628" rel="nofollow">http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idA...
UAE freezes 41 UN-banned Iran accounts: report :
http://www.france24.com/en/20100628-uae-freezes-41-un-banned-iran-accounts-report" rel="nofollow">http://www.france24.com/en/20100628-uae-freezes...
Our dear Bassijis thugs in front of french embassy in Tehran souting " shame on you Sarkozy" and "Death to France" after MKO 's rally held in Paris.
Iran: manifestation devant l'ambassade française après un rassemblement de l'opposition près de Paris:
http://www.lesechos.fr/depeches/france/afp_00263479.htm?xtor=RSS-2094" rel="nofollow">http://www.lesechos.fr/depeches/france/afp_0026...
Very civilized security forces !!! had faced their Bassiji's fellows.
Execution of a kurdish prisoner, Mrs Zeinab Jalilian is imminent:
Iran Zeinab Jalilian prisonniere politique menacée d’exécution imminente:
http://paris.indymedia.org/spip.php?article2156" rel="nofollow">http://paris.indymedia.org/spip.php?article2156
RE 1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze and Ange-Paris' comments above with links to reports on Repso and Total
Not only did Repsol and Shell suspend their plans months ago, but it has also been known ever since the possibility of a fourth round of sanctions was first mentioned that Chinese devils were going to go where Western angels fear to tread. So now this LA Times article with the headline, 'West worries China *may* undermine Iran sanctions efforts' [emphasis mine] has the same "stale news" feel about it as the Repsol and Total items.
Officials fear that China, which has questioned the value of sanctions and is hungry for energy, will step up its trade with Iran as other countries scale back. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-iran-sanctions-20100628%2C0%2C5107330.story" rel="nofollow">http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-fg-iran...
Mottaki And The Megaphone
This video of a press conference by Iran's Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki is several weeks old, but it's becoming very popular among Iranians.
http://www.rferl.org/content/Mottaki_And_The_Megaphone/2084525.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.rferl.org/content/Mottaki_And_The_Me...
Catherine
China can't betray the west because China needs the West to sell its produtcs , their exportation to west countries are higher compare to their markets with Iran; their oil will be supplied by arab countries.
Iranian trade with Dubai hit by sanctions
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-28/iranian-trade-with-dubai-hit-by-sanctions-says-group.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-28/ira...
Activists call for renewed protests to mark student-led uprising
http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=20885:activists-call-for-renewed-protests-to-mark-student-led-uprising&catid=32:tehran-grapevine&Itemid=47" rel="nofollow">http://www.iranfocus.com/en/index.php?option=co...
Here's proof that all is not well in the Holy Republic
Unofficial "prayer sellers," who promise to intercede with the divine to solve all manner of life's problems, are seeing their business boom.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/28/AR2010062801351.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/ar...
@ 1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze
Total has confirmed halted gasoline sales according to WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100628-705053.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100628-70...
Culture Watch
Khodnevis reports on an artists' protest meeting against the closure of Tehran's Moulavi Hall (former Talare Roudaki) in front of the theatre this afternoon: http://tinyurl.com/2e73ol5" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/2e73ol5
News from Tehran:
A friend, calling today from T., reported about rising unemployment and prices for food and other commodities: meat costs 12 Euro/kg, i.e. has doubled within a year. He also said that the people have adopted a policy of passive resistance, watching the economy crumble, so that the regime cracks down. Obviously sanctions are welcome, because they fasten the regime's decline. As usual people are ahead of the leaders, still praying perseverance...
Another friend reports in a letter that the mural paintings of the "shaheed" (martyrers, i.e. fallen comrades), spread all over Tehran (and Iran) are a problem for the regime, because they show celebrated persons whose descendants have joined the Green movement. A regime haunted by the living, the dead and their portraits ;-)
Jaras has a new English section, including a poll about the SL's management:
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/17386/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/17386/
Out of 87444 participants, 82% voted against and 12% in favour of his policies.
So sad, so discouraging. I remember seeing Limbert at a lecture at the local university not months back. He was forthright about the realities of the American foreign policy establishment, but optimistic nonetheless. He had said that he wouldn't have worked for the Obama administration had he not believed Obama really wanted to change our tactical approach to diplomacy vis à vis the Islamic Republic.
Well, after turning down the Tehran Declaration and moving ahead with both UN and unilateral sanctions, I don't blame him if he leaves - it's been made abundantly clear they don't want to hear actual productive and dynamic advice based on actual expertise. I, quite frankly, am disgusted with the State Department. It's far and away still an improvement upon the last Bush administration, but we're still on the same old broken record - doing the same things and expecting different results.
My best wishes to you and your wife, Mr. Limbert. I'm sure you truly fought for both the true interests of the United States and the people of Iran, and for that, you have nothing but my respect.
Arshama, you would know far better than I, and I do hope that's how the sanctions are seen. Particularly if they see the provisions against the Guards, and those stressing human rights. I'm mostly skeptical of sanctions, but do understand this argument, as well.
That SL poll was great, thanks!