The Latest from Iran (28 June): Remembering 7 Tir?

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. In a decree issued on Monday,the Supreme Leader gave amnesty to 708 prisoners,based on the recommendations of the Iranian judiciary. No indication that any of those whose sentences were commuted were political prisoners.

1800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Finally, information arrives of French oil company Total's cessation of supplies to Iran (see 1020 GMT). "I can confirm that we have suspended [gasoline] sales to Iran," said spokesman Paul Floren.

1745 GMT: Loss of Expertise in State Department? Laura Rozen reports that John Limbert, the first ever Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran Affairs, is leaving his post in July.

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The Latest from Iran (27 June): Grumbles

Limbert was distinctive in the Department because he was a fluent Persian speaker and held a Ph.D. in History and Middle Eastern Studies. He was one of 52 Americans held in the takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979-81.

Limbert is saying that he is stepping down because he has only a one-year leave of absence from his academic job at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis.

1435 GMT: Karroubi's 7 Tir Moment. Meeting families of those killed in the 1981 bombing, Mehdi Karroubi dec;ared, “Recent events and the attacks on the members of the Parliament and other senior and prominent political figures prove that those who are in power today are after eliminating and isolating the figures and revolutionary fellows. [They are after] not only a certain political party but even the independent individuals from the country and the scene of the Revolution."

Karroubi added, "Unity will never be achieved by words and slogans. Unity will never be achieved by applying pressure and force, arrests, long detentions, insults and disrespect of senior religious figures, intimidation and threats, unjust disqualifications, shutting down the press, preventing the activities of political parties, and using these kinds of ridiculous methods. Unity will not be achieved by calling the great nation of Iran 'dust and dirt'."

Karroubi concluded, "Comforting the families of victims, release of political prisoners, identifying and firm and legal confrontation with those who use violence against the people, lifting the ban on media and legal activities of the political parties, freedom of speech, tolerance and listening to the opposition as long as they don’t use weapons, and the return to the principles of the Constitution and the high values of Imam [Khomeini] and the Revolution can be the essential steps toward establishing unity in the society.”

1430 GMT: Larijani the Nationalist. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani may be feuding with the President, but he is also trying to match Ahmadinejad phrase-for-phrase for Iranian defiance of the West. He has used a speech to a crowd in western Iran to address "the West": "You will have to bury your wish for shutting Iran's nuclear activities. The era that you could change conditions in Iran has ended. Today the (Iranian) people protect their national achievements and lay emphasis on them."

1325 GMT: The Universities Row. Rooz is claiming that, at the first meeting of Azad University trustees since the Parliament v. President argument over control, Ahmadinejad's appointed representatives were not allowed into the meeting. And Mir Hossein Mousavi was an invited guest.

Javan Online, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, is claiming that Rafsanjani and Mousavi have met to plot over the issue.

1310 GMT: Ahmadinejad "We Will, We Will Punish You". Unsurprising news of the day --- the President has chosen on 7 Tir to devote his attention to foreign challenges.

In an announcement which will no doubt bring much gnashing of teeth in Washington (or not), President Ahmadinejad told a news conference that Iran was prepared to return to uranium enrichment talks but only by late August, during the second half of the Muslim festival of Ramadan.

"It's a punishment to teach them a lesson to know how to have a dialogue with nations," he said. And he added the chest-pumping frosting on the cake with a warning to any power thinking of inspecting Iranian ships: "If they make the slightest mistake we will definitely retaliate."

Ahmadinejad's most notable reference to the internal situation was to claim, in the face of tougher US and UN sanctions, "If we decide today, we can halve our gasoline consumption overnight without damaging our economic growth."

1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that heavy prison sentences have been handed down to four student activists in Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign.

1040 GMT: And Now Khamenei.... The supposed highlight from today's statement by the Supreme Leader: "One of the big dangers is that political propaganda by various parties, newspapers, and foreign media will affect the right channel of judgment and legal proceedings."

1030 GMT: Posing for 7 Tir. Ahh, here we go. "Hundreds" of Iranians have gathered outside the French Embassy in Tehran in response to a demonstration in Paris last week by the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

The NCRI is the overseas political committee for the People's Mohajedin Organization of Iran and the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO). The MKO carried out the bombing on 7 Tir (28 June) in 1981 that killed 73 leading officials of the Islamic Republic.

1020 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. A spokesman for Spain's largest oil company Repsol has confirmed that it is withdrawing from a contract to develop part of the South Pars gas field in Iran. Repsol's partner, Royal Dutch Shell, has declined to confirm whether it is withdrawing, although a spokesman said it will comply with any international trade restrictions.

(This is all window-dressing. Repsol and Shell suspended plans months ago, and Iran has already moved to give the projects to Iranian companies, including firms connected with the Revolutionary Guard.)

Britain's Financial Times is also putting out a report that France's Total is halting gasoline/petrol sales to Iran but, curiously, has no source for the claim.

0854 GMT: In Case You're Wondering. Why have I not been posting updates on the on-again, off-again, maybe-someday statements about an Iranian aid flotilla to Gaza? Well, because I never thought this was an initiative likely to come off, amidst the politics of Tehran and other countries.

For those keeping score, the latest report is that the Iranian Red Crescent has cancelled the sailing of a ship, blaming Egypt as well as Israel for preventing passage.

0850 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont.). More on Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement for 7 Tir (see 0720 GMT). ...

The pro-reformist Radio Zamaneh publishes extracts and has no doubt that Rafsanjani is aiming at those in power: “The enemies have diversified and enemies disguised as friends have infiltrated our ranks....Divisiveness is called honesty, insult is called candour, lies are called tact, slander is called boldness and slogans are called insight.”

0745 GMT: The Regime and 7 Tir (So Far). There are no significant headlines in Fars News marking the 1981 bombing, and the Islamic Republic News Agency's reference is defensive, to say the least: a "member of the Assembly of Experts" says that the memory of Ayatollah Beheshti, slain on 7 Tir, does not belong to any one group.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian state media are headlining the opening of a new phase of a major steel complex in Natanz, with President Ahmadinejad attending the ceremony.

Not-so-happy news, carried by Iranian Labor News Agency, is that malnutrition amongst children has risen 3 percent during the Ahmadinejad Government.

0725 GMT: Larijani Watch. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, continuing his manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, has asserted that "the independence of judiciary"" has not yet been seen.

Larijani's brother Sadegh is the head of the judiciary.

0720 GMT: Rafsanjani's Statement. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, in a meeting with the families of the martyrs of the 1981 bombing, that today anyone who causes division among the people --- even if it claim good intentions --- is making a great and strategic mistake: “Today in a situation that we need unity more than before some visible and invisible hands are playing the division drum.”

As always, those who cause division are not specifically identified by Rafsanjani; however, he did give an important signal by strongly condemning the attacks against senior clerics and the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini by pro-government groups.

0700 GMT: Today is the 29th anniversary of the bombing in Tehran that killed 73 leading officials of the young Islamic Republic, including the head of judiciary, Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

We'll be having a look to see how the day is commemorated, but early signs are that it will be accompanied, if not overshadowed, by the tensions within the current Republic. The Beheshti family, in a pointed protest, have already cancelled a memorial ceremony, and reformist groups and opposition groups have pointed to 7 Tir as a reminder of the betrayals of the Government. As the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri declare today, "It is not the Revolution that eats its children, but rather the opportunists that were opposed to the Revolution in the past, who change colour and destroy the children of the Revolution.”

Meanwhile....

The Latest from Iran (15 June): Another Anniversary

1850 GMT: Claimed video of today's gathering at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery, apparently at the grave of Sohrab Arabi:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gikWMCaTbzE[/youtube]

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The Latest from Iran (14 June): The 2nd Year Is Underway….

1730 GMT: The Cemetery Protest. Reports coming in that at least eight people, six of them women, have been arrested in Beheshte-Zahra. One woman was detained as she talk to the mother of the slain protester Sohrab Arabi.

1725 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA reports that Sadra Aghassi and Naem Ahmadi of Tabriz University's Islamic Student Association were arrested on 14 June, 2010.

Allameh Tabatabei University student Koroush Jannati was arrested on 12 June by intelligence agents after reporting to the university’s security office.

1715 GMT: The Mousavi Charter. The Los Angeles Times has an interesting reading of today's declaration by Mir Hossein Mousavi of objectives and strategies for the Green Movement.

The website notes that most of Mousavi's statement points to reform within the Iranian system with statements such as....

The Green Movement reaffirms its commitment to human, moral, religious and Iranian principles and values and feels obliged to refine and reform the behaviors of the Islamic Republic of Iran....The Green Movement is in continuation of Iranian people's efforts to attain freedom and social justice and national sovereignty...These objectives had already been pursued in the Constitutional Revolution, Oil Nationalization Movement [of 1951] and the [1979] Islamic Revolution.”

However, the Times notes one passage in the PDF version of the statement, but omitted from the version on Mousavi's website Kalemeh, that points to a separation of state and religion: "Maintaining the independence of religious and clerical bodies from the regime is the only option to preserve the exalted status of religion in the Iranian society and it will be one of the main principles hitting high on the agenda of the Green Movement.

1703 GMT: Today's Demonstrations. Dissected News reports from a source (see comments below) that about 200 family members of "Detainees of 12 June" gathered in front of Evin Prison, demanding the freedom of their relatives. The gathering lasted until dark.

Activists are reporting, and opposition websites are carrying the story, that about 300 people have gathered in Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery to pay their respects to those slain in post-election clashes, including Sohrab Arabi and Ramin Ramezani. Two people who were taping the ceremony have reportedly been arrested, and security presence is high.

1700 GMT: Khordaad 88 have posted an English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's Monday statement, which hailed the Iranian people's fortitude over 22 Khordaad (12 June) and condemned the weekend attacks on clerics.

We are still awaiting a full translation of Mousavi's declaration today of a "charter" for the Green Movement.

1650 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activist Behnam Ebrahimzadeh was arrested during Saturday's demonstrations. It is claimed that Ebrahimzadeh, beaten during his detention, suffered two broken ribs and multiple injuries.

1645 GMT: Propaganda of Day. This line, set out by Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi, may be just a bit too blatant to work.

Moslehi said Tuesday that several people linked to the "terrorist" People's Mujahedin of Iran had been arrested over plans to carry out bombings on 22 Khordaad (12 June), the anniversary of the election: “Two terrorist teams of hypocrites were identified and their key members were arrested” The alleged plan was to “carry out bombings in several Tehran squares" (i.e., the squares where the regime put out security forces on Saturday to deter gatherings).

Britain, France, and Sweden were the foreigners accused of “backing” the PMOI (Britain, of course, as the "Little Satan", France for its recent anti-Iran rhetoric, but why Sweden?). And one of the suspects had been arrested “in a student dormitory” (i.e., a student dormitory like the one that security forces attacked last 14-15 June, killing several people).

1625 GMT: Attack by the Clerics. Rooz Online in English has an overview, covering many of the events we have noted in the updates, of the criticism by clerics of the treatment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the 4 June ceremony for his grandfather.

1315 GMT: Mousavi's Charter. The first English-language report on Mir Hossein Mousavi's charter for the Green Movement, posted this morning (see 0940 GMT), comes from Agence France Presse. The article leads with Mousavi's call for "a fair trial of those who committed the election fraud, tortured and killed protesters" and mentions his demand for an "end to the involvement of police and military forces in politics, the independence of the judiciary, and prosecution of those in plainclothes".

1240 GMT: Concluding and Pronouncing. Yet another sweeping assessment of the Green Movement, this time from Karim Sadjadpour.

Most of Sadjadpour's piece consists of recommendations such as "Go Beyond Street Protests", for example, with strikes, "Organize Abroad", and "Reach Out to 'Ali The Plumber'" --- and he does conclude with hope, "The path to democracy is both delicate and daunting, and not guaranteed. A pessimist might argue, however, that a far more daunting task will be for the Islamic Republic to indefinitely sustain a politically repressive, socially restrictive, economically floundering theocracy in the 21st century."

Still, it's the opening of the piece, issued as truth even before Saturday had concluded, that sets the tone and catches the eye: "The anniversary of Iranʼs tainted presidential elections came and went without much sign of life from the opposition Green Movement. Aside from scattered protests, activists were understandably cowed by governmental intimidation and heeded the advice of opposition elders to preserve their powder for future battles."

1115 GMT: Beyond Facebook. Amidst the current discussion on new and social media and the Green Movement, an interesting contribution by Mohammad Sadeghi, the organiser of the Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard Supporters' Networks on Facebook: "The Green Movement is crafting a new and nonviolent political discourse that holds tremendous repercussions for a region in which the vast majority of civil actors are anything but peaceful. This movement is the culmination of more than 100 years of struggle by the Iranian people to secure their basic rights and liberties. Let's use this opportunity to remind ordinary Iranians of the amazing and very real victories they have already won, and not lecture them about their inefficacy and inefficiency, which is wholly imagined and miscalculated."

0940 GMT: A Charter for the Greens. It was promised, and now it's published: Kalemeh has posted Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement of objectives and strategies for the Green Movement.

Inconveniently, I have to go to an academic meeting, so I'll hand over to readers for perusal and comment.
0935 GMT: Beyond Green Tweets. We've published an analysis by Mahmood Enayat, "Iran's Green Communications: Beyond Twitter to 'Small Media'".

0930 GMT: Remembering. Rah-e-Sabz publishes names and details of 29 people killed on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year.

0855 GMT: The Battle Within. Khabar Online --- have we mentioned that it is the website linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani? --- assesses that President Ahmadinejad's televised interview on the anniversary of his "victory" will upset "even the hardliners".

There's a bit of evidence for that assertion from Kayhan, which analyses that some people have "given wrong advice" to Ahmadinejad, "incompatible with his Islamic revolutionary thoughts". Looks like the President's criticism of "morality police" for pressuring people over "bad hijab" and other transgressions is not going down that well....

On another front, Hamid Reza Fouladgar, who oversees privatisation matters in Parliament, has commented about the dispute over implementation of Majlis laws by Ahmadinejad: "After 1 week of discussions, we were met with his silence, hopefully a good sign/"

0845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The father of student activist Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, of the Third Way Movement, has described his son's re-arrest: those carrying out the raid "told us Ahmadinejad will stay for a third term".

0840 GMT: The Attacks on the Clerics. Writing in Rah-e-Sabz, analyst Mohammad Javad Akbarein claims that there is a circle of regime politicians and clerics, including Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, formier Minister of Intelligence Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, Mohammad Golpayegani, and Hamid Rasaie, who have been organising attacks against "opposition" marja (senior clerics) and their followers for years.

0835 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is returning to Tehran after a visit to Assalouyeh in the Persian Gulf province of Bushehr to sign contracts to expand Phases 13, 14, 23, 22, 19 and 24 of the South Pars oil and gas fields.

The story behind Ahmadinejad's trip is that the contracts have been rewritten after the withdrawal of foreign companies, including Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol, from development. The work was re-allocated to Iranian firms, including some allegedly connected with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps.

0830 GMT: We've corrected an oversight by posting President Obama's official statement, emphasising human rights, on the anniversary of Iran's election.

0620 GMT: As Iran marks another anniversary --- this one of last year's mass protest against the outcome of the Presidential election --- we post an analysis considering latest developments and media coverage, "Missing the Important Story?"

Meanwhile....

Getting Around the Energy Squeeze?

Iranian state media is giving big play to the signature of a $7.5 billion "peace pipeline" deal between Iran and Pakistan for delivery of natural gas to Islamabad by 2014.

Which is fair enough, but still does not quite cope with the issue of if Tehran can maintain both its exports and imports of energy supplies over the next four years.

Shutting Down the News...And Literature

We have an update on Iran's filtering of news sites. Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz reports that there is widespread filtering of Persian literary blogs and the philosophical magazine Rokhdaad.

Rumour of Day

Tahavole Sabz claims that the word is being sent out to Iran's parents: come out and greet President Ahmadinejad or your kids won't be enrolled in school.

The Latest from Iran (5 June): Is That All There Is?

1945 GMT: The Follow-Up to Friday. Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement condemning the treatment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini during his speech yesterday.

1915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has approved a five-year prison sentence for Rajabali (Babak) Dashab. Dashab, arrested during the Ashura protests on 27 December, had been given a six term.

1715 GMT: Re-packaging the Supreme Leader. An interesting twist in Khabar Online's coverage of the Khamenei speech: rather than note his threats against the opposition, the website says he emphasised that "even enemies and dissidents have to be treated with justice and piety".

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1545 GMT: Beating the Oil Squeeze? Press TV reports that Iran, now accepting the withdrawal of Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol from Phases 13 and 14 of the South Pars oil and gas field as definiite, is giving the project to the Iranian Khatam-ol-Osea Consortium for $5 billion.


1530 GMT: Jamming Neda. Voice of America reports that Iranian authorities jammed a documentary, For Neda, about Neda Agha-Soltan, who was killed during last year's post-election demonstrations.

The documentary, produced by Home Box Office in the US, was shown on Wednesday. It is due for re-broadcast on 12 June, the anniversary of the Presidential election, and 20 June, the anniversary of Neda's death, and it is also available on the Internet.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk[/youtube]

1515 GMT: More Support for Hassan Khomeini. In a letter to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has condemned Friday's disruption of Khomeini's speech as a systematic attack planned by extremists “to take revenge from Imam (Khomeini,Hassan's grandfather) and his followers".

1500 GMT: We reported yesterday that human rights activist Saba Vasefi had escaped arrest when she was away during a security forces' raid on her home.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran now reports, from a "reliable source", that Vasefi was hit by a motorcycle on Tuesday when she was in Shahryar, near Tehran, to check on a death penalty case. Vasefi struck her head on the road and is now in a coma.

1250 GMT: Reacting to Friday. The prominent conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has said that the disruption of Seyed Hassan Khomeini’s speech was "very sad" and "against freedom of speech that is one of the principles of Islamic Revolution".

Significantly, Motahari accused President Ahmadinejad of organising the sabotage of Khomeini's appearance.

Motahari said, "Ahmadinejad is like a spoilt child in a family where the more he annoys others, the more he is appreciated by the parents. If judiciary had put [Mehdi] Karroubi, [Mir Hossein] Mousavi, and Ahmadinejad all on trial, this would not have happened."

The Islamic Society of Tehran University has requested urgent action to be taken against those "small groups" who interrupted Hassan Khomeini, claiming the disruption was because of the hatred that the hardliners have for Imam Khomeini.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A story that slipped by us earlier this week....

Parveneh Osanloo, the wife of labour activist Mansour Osanloo, has said that her husband has been put in solitary confinement inside the Revolutionary Guard's Ward on new charges of “relations with state opposition groups”.

1240 GMT: Yesterday's Arrests. Tehran Police Chief Hossein Sajedinia has said 19 people were arrested during the commemorations of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0715 GMT: Forgive the blatant "Western" cultural reference in the title of the post, but this was my immediate thought after watching the regime's setpiece yesterday for the commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini's death. We have an analysis of the day, from the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei speeches to the unexpected "highlight" with the shout-down of Khomeini's grandson, in a separate entry.

In other news on an anti-climactic slow day (so far)....

Dastgheib's Support for Mousavi

The English translation of Ayatollah Dashgheib's letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi has been published:

Greetings,

I saw your statement which was published on Ordibehesht 23, 1389 (13 May 2010) and as I was certain of your religiousness, I am certain now too and I see you as someone with the love for Islam, Quran, and the Prophet’s and Holy Imam’s way of life, with good Islamic manner, devoted to Iran’s Islamic society, the establishment and the Islamic Republic of Iran, possessing honesty and purity, far from lies, betrayals and deceptions, and free from the love for earthly possessions and being in power.

What you stated about various issues are in accordance with the religious teachings and in compliance with the Constitution and the slogan of “independence, freedom and the Islamic Republic”. I, as a citizen, consider you useful and rather necessary for the continuation of the Islamic Revolution that was carried out by the people and the leadership of Imam Khomeini.

I am amazed by the people who considered themselves just but call your remarks, which are supported by reasons, deviation from the establishment and –-- may God have mercy on us –-- in confrontation with the establishment, and –-- may God have more mercy on us –-- accuse you unjustly, hideously and irrationally. These are disasters for you and us, and we should say, “We are all from God and we will return to him” about them.

Political Prisoner Watch

Women's rights activist Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in jail and 30 lashes for "acts against national security". Abbasgholizadeh was arrested on 21 December on her way to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

2010 GMT: Picture of the Day? Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani during the speech of the Supreme Leader:

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2000 GMT: Interrogation Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that security forces went to the home of human rights activist Saba Vasefi to arrest her, but she was not away. There is no information on her current situation and whereabouts.


Vasefi, a university instructor, researcher, human rights activist, and women’s rights activist, reportedly was looking into the case of a person sentenced to death but has not returned.

1704 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement continues to resonate, with his declaration that "they have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam".

Karroubi's website Saham News also clarifies the story, spread by Fars News, that the cleric was assaulted on Thursday. An incident did occur at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery The website adds that Karroubi was able to reach the Haram where --- significantly in light of today's events --- he was received by Hassan Khomeini.

1700 GMT: Absentees. No reformists, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami --- attended the ceremony today.

1645 GMT: The Big Story from Today --- Hassan Khomeini. It looks like the speech of President Ahmadinejad, and even that of the Supreme Leader, have been overshadowed by the sabotaging of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson.

The story is all over the Iranian web. The pro-regime Raja News is spreading the slogan, "Imam Khomeini's real nephew is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah [the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon]". The story is now spreading that Raja disseminated this before the ceremony today and encouraged the heckling of Hassan Khomeini.

It is also significant that Hassan Khomeini halted his speech after the chants of "Death to Mousavi" started, stating, "Please refrain from expressing such sentiments until the Leader takes the podium." During the Supreme Leader's speech, both he and Hashemi Rafsanjani kept their heads buried deep in their chests.

1520 GMT: Clerical Support. Ayatollah Dastgheib has written to Mir Hossein Mousavi, expressing his support for Mousavi's "sincerity and his avoidance of betrayal, lies, and hypocrisy".

1455 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shabnam Madadzadeh, vice president of the student organisation Daftar Tahkim Vahdat, and her brother Farzad have both been sentenced to five years in prison.

1450 GMT: Relaxing the Oil Squeeze? International Oil Daily claims that Royal Dutch Shell has resumed shipments to Iran, with three 30,000-ton deliveries of gasoline/petrol last month at the port of Bandar Abbas.

1445 GMT: Parliament v. President. Peyke Iran claims that Parliament's Article 90 Commission has said that it is not convinced of Ahmadinejad's defence of his Government's implementation of policies.

1440 GMT: Reading Larijani. And what of this what you will from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, explaining at a memorial service, "Today we see a backwardness which has nothing to do with the ideas of the Imam [Khomeini]."

1425 GMT: Reading Today. We've posted a snap analysis of the significance of today's speeches.

Khabar Online posts an article on the sabotage of Hassan Khomeini's speech. The website also claims that the Supreme Leader consoled Khomeini by kissing him on the forehead.

The reformist Green Voice of Freedom also covers the incident, emphasising Khomeini's declaration that those shouting down his words were "a minority".

0935 GMT: The Bad West. Khamenei is still criticising the West and Israel, claiming that the US and others try to restrict Iran's access to nuclear energy (but saying little more), as the crowds chants Death to the US and Death to Israel.

And that's about it as the Supreme Leader moves to a closing prayer and Press TV cuts its coverage.

0925 GMT: The Israel Rap. After leading the audience in prayer, the Supreme Leader uses the attack on the Freedom Flotilla as proof of Israel "murdering innocents" as Western "hypocrites and liars" observe and keep silent over the "barbaric and savage" Zionists.

0920 GMT: Back to the Challenge. "They started this chaos. They tried their efforts. They supported those rioters. The UK also supported them, Western powers [supported them]. MKO ["terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and all the opponents supported them. What was the result?....Our great people last year showed such a great power that dazzled the whole world."

0916 GMT: Audience Watch. They may be rivals for power, but Ahmadinejad is sitting next to Sadegh and Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad ally Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is three seats from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0912 GMT: Now I Will Shake My Fist. The Supreme Leader starts his attack on opposition figures by saying that individuals should not be judged on their past offices but on their present positions, adding that the first Imam, Imam Ali, fought former allies when they strayed.

How serious could this get? Khamenei notes that some people who accompanied Ayatollah Khomeini on his return to Iran in 1979 were later executed because they left the proper path. His message to opponents: "the yardstick for passing judgement is your present situation if, God forbid, Satan pushes [you] the wrong way".

0910 GMT: Still going on about Israel and Palestine, with an Iranian position "based on logic and not sloganeering".

0905 GMT: The Global Dimension. Instead of returning to the internal battle, the Supreme Leader uses his invocation of Khomeini and democracy to claim that Iran --- without interfering in the affairs of other countries --- is setting a "glorious example" to the rest of the world.

He quickly moves, however, from glory to darker language, setting up his anti-Israel section by invoking Ayatollah Khomeini's description of Israel as a "cancerous tumour".

0900 GMT: Legitimacy. Khamenei points to elections in the early days of the Islamic Republic: "In no other revolution do you see a referendum less than two months after victory." And, in the toughest times during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the elections were never postponed.

0850 GMT: Attack Resumed. Another not-so-veiled reference by Khamenei to political opponents as "mercenaries" of foreign, hostile powers. He speaks of their stances on Qods Day (September) and Ashura (27 December) --- both occasions of large opposition demonstrations --- and says that "we cannot remain silent" and "call ourselves followers of the Imam".

0830 GMT: The First Swipe. Khameini makes his first analogy with the contemporary situation, criticising those who were followers of Ayatollah Khomeini but "went their own way" and "lost their goals....After years, they stand against those ideals."

Mir Hossein Mousavi just happened to be Prime Minister during the last years of Ayatollah Khomeini's life.

(Interesting side note: the Supreme Leader reads and interprets sections of Khomeini's will but never notes his injunction against the involvement of the military in politics.)

0825 GMT: Disrespecting Khomeini. A quick flashback to the episode between the Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader speeches: the section of the crowd who sabotaged the speech of the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, were reportedly chanting, "Death to Mousavi". We've posted the video.

0820 GMT: Audience Check. In contrast to the lack of VIPs who showed up for President Ahmadinejad, everyone who is anyone is here for Khamenei. The three Larijani brothers have now appeared, as has former President Rafsanjani.

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader begins with a lengthy section lauding the steadfastness and piety of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0800 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei has just arrived on the stage. We have an urgent commitment this morning so we will be blogging the Supreme Leader's address "as live" in about three hours.

0800 GMT: Extraordinary development --- a section of the crowd is yelling to prevent Hassan Khomeini from speaking. He is now referring to this openly, asking "forgiveness for all of us". (Press TV makes no reference to the disruption.)

0752 GMT: A Surprise Appearance. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, is now speaking. That's a bit unexpected: Hassan Khomeini has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government and has been under sustained pressure to curb his activities.

He is greeted enthusiastically --- more enthusiastically than Ahmadinejad --- and has to pause repeatedly for the crowd to quiet before he can speak.

(Or, alternatively, is the loud noise meant to block Hassan Khomeini's speech?)

0750 GMT: Press TV does not even wait for the end of Ahmadinejad's speech before cutting away.

0745 GMT: Is It Empty Behind Ahmadinejad's Back?

All in all, a pretty uneventful speech. There was the standard Ahmadinejad rhetoric denouncing "the West" and Israel (although no direct reference to Iran's nuclear programme), and one passage went after his opponents, promising that the Iranian nation --- which backed him in the 2009 election --- would "annihilate" them.

But it was pretty tame compared to what we anticipated. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Ahmadinejad has definitely run out of ideas. His speech is repetitive and contains frankly nothing worth mentioning."

Indeed, the takeaway point so far this morning is not Ahmadinejad's speech but those who were not there: apart from Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, everyone must have been stuck in traffic. No Larijani brothers, no Rafsanjani, and no prominent "conservative" politicians.

0740 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes by invoking Khomeini: "The Iranian nation will follow down the Imam's path." And he has a final swipe at "arrogant powers", saying, "We are not afraid of their fabricated power."

0730 GMT: The President is now using the Freedom Flotilla incident to invoke "weak" and "crazy" Israel and the US "under the influence of the criminal Zionists".

Ahmadinejad warns that, if Washington does not stop its support of Israel, it will be "the end of President Obama" and "the end of the US". Any "new aggressive move" will mean the "death of the Zionist regime".

0727 GMT: Ahmadinejad is now back to the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini's triumph over the "arrogant powers", culminating in Iran's "final victory". Those who opposed Iran can now only "surrender to the righteous".

Highest-ranking VIP seen so far? Atomic energy chief Ali Akhbar Salehi.

An EA correspondent notes, "As a Persian saying would put it, 'It's empty behind his back.'"

0717 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad is going big-time against the "hypocrites" of the "Western powers" who challenged Ayatollah Khomeini.

And now he's moving to the "individuals" standing with those powers: "Those who are in league with enemeis cannot claim to follow Imam" --- "If they go awry...they will be removed from the scene by the people....Anyone who stands against this Revolution will be annihilated."

0715 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad goes after the opposition, those "selfish people" who tried to deny him the legitimacy of the election. He invokes Khomeini as referring to the "will of the people" and standing up to "arrogant powers".

0710 GMT: After several uneventful minutes, the President finally makes his play for legitimacy. He proclaims that the election witnessed 40 million Iranians --- 85% of eligible voters --- turning out in a "100% free election" to "set the record of democracy in the whole world".

And almost "25 million" voted for "their servant --- me".

0705 GMT: Nothing special so far in the Ahmadinejad speech. And no sign of major presences in the crowd --- which is muted so far --- although we did spot Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi in the VIP section.

0653 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now addressing the crowd with greetings in Arabic. Press TV has started live coverage.

A large banner under the podium has a quote from Khomeini, always present on this occasion: "America Cannot Do a Damn Thing".

We're watching the crowd to see which VIPs are present.

0650 GMT: Some live shots now from IRINN of the crowd at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine. An EA correspondent estimates "tens of thousands". possibly 100,000, but only the inner courtyard is shown.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi is fretting over the amount of contraband in the Iranian system: "Some 16 billion dollars worth of goods have been smuggled into Iran, while three billion dollars worth have been exported illegally during the last Iranian year."

0630 GMT: Karroubi Strikes. Mehdi Karroubi, who put out a lengthy video message yesterday, has also posted a forthright statement on Saham News:

[The regime officials] speak in a way as if Imam [Khomeini] belongs to them only and others have broken path with the Imam. Whoever objects to fraud in election is accused of being a Mossad or CIA agent. The fate of election is in the hands of Basijis and Sepah [Revolutionary Guards].

I am worried about the Islamic aspect of the regime. They have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam.

0600 GMT: Getting Priorities Right. Press TV have now elevated the remembrance of Ayatollah Khomeini by Iranians "in their millions" to its top story.

Still only a token reference to the Supreme Leader's speech as Press TV jumps to a statement by Hezbollah's Sheikh Nasrallah linking the Khomeini legacy to the "heroes of the Gaza aid flotilla".

0515 GMT: Trumped by the Flotilla? After all our morning analysis on the possible significance of today's Ahmadinejad/Khamenei speeches, a curious signal from Press TV.

The first 10 minutes of its morning news round-up is devoted not to Tehran Friday Prayers but to the aftermath of the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla.

Only after the steady stream of Iranian and international condemnation of the attack does Press TV turn to the commemoration of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini. There is the high-profile, and possibly risky, headline of Tehran police's prediction of more than two million at the shrine and on the streets, coming in "50,000 buses", but only a passing reference to the Supreme Leader's speech and none to Ahmadinejad's.

0500 GMT: Here We Go. Maybe.



This morning both President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will use the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini to deliver speeches on the political situation. Speaking from Khomeini's shrine, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Tehran's Friday Prayers, with Ahmadinejad offering an introduction.

As this is effectively the first regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), one public signal will be the size of the crowd for the occasion. There should be no problem filling the shrine --- an EA correspondent writes that it holds about 50,000 to 60,000 people --- but will there be a mass showing on the streets beyond?



That, however, may be the peripheral matter for propaganda; any debate over numbers tends to overlook the little fact that there is no big show of support for the regime between these high-profile occasions set a few months apart.

Instead, the immediate challenge will come in the content of the two speeches. Ahmadinejad showing up as the warm-up act is an important clue: an EA correspondent says an "introduction" of the Supreme Leader on this occasion is unusual. So the President's appearance, given his rhetoric and his need to establish his authority, points to a tough line on the opposition (and, possibly between the lines, to Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Iranian establishment).

But what about the Supreme Leader? EA staff note that he has two "hot" issues to handle: 1) the application for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election, by Mir Hossein Mousasvi and Mehdi Karroubi and 2) the maneouvres over the Tehran declaration on uranium enrichment by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey.

On the nuclear issue, the Supreme Leader has to decide between whether to hold out the prospect of continuing discussion with the "West" over a possible deal or, given the prospect of tougher sanctions, whether to tell Brazil and Turkey that there is no point in negotiating. The latter course of action would be a setback for Ahmadinejad, who still needs the prospect of a bargain on uranium for his political legitimacy, and a victory for the President's rival, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

That's important politics to handle, but still the primary issue for Khamenei is whether he offers any road back for the opposition, say, the line "repent and we will take you back", or whether he draws the line and says, "That's it. We're taking you down."

Does the Supreme Leader, for example, make an open declaration that the Green Movement and other "enemies" will not be allowed to gather on 12 June or does he avoid comment, letting Iran's bureaucracy turn down the Mousavi-Karroubi request?

And --- given the prospect that the opposition will still try to demonstrate --- does Khamenei, more than 11 months after his last Friday Prayer which said there would be no defiance of the election result, warn that this demonstration and its leaders will be crushed?