The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

2000 GMT: The Rooftop Allahu Akbars Are Back. Claimed video of tonight in west Tehran, with residents shouting "God is Great":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NriBVuN3og&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

NEW Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
NEW Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over “Khomeini”
Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)
Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

1955 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Nourmohammadi, detained since 20 January, has been sentenced to three years in prison for "assembly and collusion against national security". His brother, reformist activist Saeed Nourmohammadi, is serving a one-year prison sentence, with five years suspended, and a 30-year ban on political activity.


1935 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Still waiting for video to surface of today's press conference by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Those present included Advar News, Jaras, Norooz, Saham News, Green Voice of Freedom, Tahavole Sabz, Kalameh, Emrooz, and Mizan.

Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz clarifies the latest developments on the requests to march on 12 June. The number of reformist groups seeking permits has risen from 8 to 10.  Two parties have already been rejected, while the rest --- meeting a request from the Ministry of Interior for more information --- have said the protest will "be a silent one, with no one carrying any arms. There will be no statement read out and no speech made." Demonstrators will "carry signs asking for free elections and using green as their symbol".

1920 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). The most intriguing move, however, comes from "principlist" MP Ali Motahari. Having been warned for saying that the disturbance at last Friday's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini was due in part to the President's election, Motahari said that he would welcome his removal from the party. He declared that this would prepare the ground for the establishment of an independent faction composed of moderate reformists and principlists.

1915 GMT: Parliament v. President. A number of intriguing developments in the conflict between the Majlis and the President....

BBC Persian reports that the Supreme Leader has stepped in, calling for more oversight of the work of Parliament but also seeking more collaboration between the Majlis and Ahmadinejad.

A number of MPs have criticised Ahmadinejad's latest power play. Farhad Tajari, deputy chief of the Majlis legal commission, condemned the President’s letter to the Guardian Council questioning the legitimacy of a number of Parliament's bills, and Seyed Reza Akrami maintained that only the Guardian Council can declare Parliamentary measures illegal. Abbas Rejai, the head of Parliament’s agricultural commission, said that as the Guardian Council has approved all legislation in his area, no one can question its validity.

The Parliament also blamed the office of the President for releasing Ahmadinejad's letter, which bore a confidential stamp, with “all its blatant legal equivocations”.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kouhyar Goudarzi, member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1740 GMT: Ahmadinejad "All OK. Nothing to See. Move Along." Amidst his rhetoric about the nuclear issue and Israel, President Ahmadinejad did take time today in Turkey to make a passing comment on his own country.

So let it be noted --- because all media hell is going to break loose tomorrow when the UN Security Council adopts a sanctions resolution and the Iranian Government responds, three days ahead of the election anniversary, with defiance and its honourable defence of the country's sovereignty against foreigners --- that Ahmadinejad said:

The Islamic Republic is one of the most stable countries of the world because its foundations are set in the hearts of every single Iranian....People hold the elections, supervise it and participate in it.

1625 GMT: The Complexities Within. Dissected News offers an interesting overview of the tensions not only within the Green Movement but also within the Iranian establishment.

1610 GMT: Jailing the Journalists. Reporters Without Borders posts a lengthy summary of the represssion of journalists in Iran. Some basic statistics:

* At least 170 journalists and bloggers, including 32 women, have been arrested in the past year.

*22 of them have sentenced to jail terms totalling 135 years.

*85 journalists are awaiting trial or sentencing.

* More than 100 journalists have been forced to flee the country.

*23 newspapers have been shut down and thousands of web pages have been blocked.

*With 37 journalists and bloggers currently held, Iran is one of the world’s four biggest prisons for the media, alongside Cuba, Eritrea and North Korea.

1605 GMT: In the Category of Totally Unexpected News. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, is complaining that the Ministry of Interior is stalling over requests for permits to demonstrate on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

The Ministry has turned down two applications from reformist parties but has asked six other groups for more information.

1345 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Behzad Bagheri was arrested on Saturday in Isfahan.

1315 GMT: From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi held a joint press conference today on the eve of one year anniversary of rigged presidential election (June 12) and answered to the questions of reporters from all over the world. Details of this press conference as well as the video of it will be published soon.

1300 GMT: I have posted an analysis, for the anniversary of Iran's election, assessing the significance of events that have happened and events to come: "The Power of the Gradual".

The decision to post the piece, which is a draft introduction to a new book, was spurred in part because of my frustration and sorrow at a set of high-profile analyses in Foreign Policy magazine which I think misrepresent the dynamic of post-election developments, especially with respect to information in and out of Iran.

In that context, I have just noted two other, very different reflections. Human rights activist Ahmad Batebi gives a lengthy interview in which he assesses, "People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge & Information". And Kathy Riordan interviews an activist, "Michi", on the influence of social media in this post-election crisis: "People in many countries outside Iran have established bonds with the Iranian people. Stereotypes and misunderstandings have been stripped away."

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports have come in that journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been sentenced to one year in prison and has banned for 30 years from reporting. Her husband, journalist Bahman Amoui, is already serving a five-year sentence in Evin Prison.

1010 GMT: American Detainees. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said Tehran has no plans to swap three Americans jailed last summer in Iran on spying charges for Iranians held in the Unites States.

The website Free the Hikers offers the latest on the detainees, arrested after walking --- inadvertently, they claim --- across the Iraq-Iran border.

0940 GMT: Evading the Attacks. Writing in The New York Times, Jo Becker illustrates how the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines evades sanctions through the re-flagging and renaming of ships:

Of the 123 Irisl ships listed [by the US Government], only 46 are still clearly owned by Irisl or its United States-listed subsidiaries, according to an analysis of data from IHS Fairplay, formerly Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay, based in Britain, which issues large merchant vessels their unique identifying numbers and tracks them over their lifetime. Four more were scuttled.

The rest — 73 — are now on record as owned and operated by companies that do not appear on the blacklist. The companies are located far from Iran, in places like Malta, Hong Kong, Cyprus, Germany and the Isle of Man. In all but 10 instances, however, records and interviews established definitive links between the ships’ new registered owners and Irisl.

0725 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The website 12june.org is now listing 68 cities planning events on 12 June for the anniversary of the Presidential election.

0654 GMT: Video of Day. Short and to the point --- "22 Khordaad" (12 June) is inscribed on a railing:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIugT-rfCIA[/youtube]

0650 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is in Turkey, putting the emphasis on foreign affairs. He has told a crowd in Istanbul that last week's raid on the Freedom Flotilla was the "death knell" for the "Zionist regime". He also said the recent Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on Tehran's uranium enrichment is the last chance for an agreement on the issue.

0645 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the leader of Friday Prayers in Kashan has explained that televising women pariticipating in sports is forbidden.

0635 GMT: The Khomeini Fall-Out. Ayatollah Dastgheib, condemning the attack on Hassan Khomeini, asserts that the "only way out" out of the current predicament is the return of Mir Hossein Mousavi to the political scene with the assurance that he will not be threatened.

0555 GMT: We begin the morning with a special report from a new NGO, Arseh Sevom (Third Sphere), "Attacks on Civil Society in Iran, 2005-2010".

Meanwhile, in the current civil society, there are more signs of nervousness as the regime is still trying to deal with the aftermath of the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, that went wrong last Friday and the uncertainty of the election's anniversary (22 Khordaad/12 June) approaches:

A New Anti-Government Coalition?

A sharp poke at Ahmadinejad, in the guise of analysis from Khabar Online, the website connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani: it claims that even a significant number of "hardliners" have joined the reformists in opposition

The analysis projects that "moderate reformists" have a small chance to gain influence within two or three years and advises that hardliners should put themselves in four groups to discuss change, including "idealists", "pragmatists", and those taking the Government line.

Parliament v. President

The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has declared that the Parliament should help the judiciary to correct and update laws.

Hmm.... Could Sadegh be taking sides in the evolving dispute between his brother Ali and President Ahmadinejad? After all, it is Ali Larijani and other MPs who are complaining that the Government is implementing "incorrect" measures.

There's the prospect of more pressure on the President, with the claim that the results of an investigation into undocumented spending during Ahmadinejad's Government will be published soon.

"Dorough Online" (Lie Online)

That is new name given to Iran's media by Green Voice of Freedom, which is claiming a "new record" of at least three big lies per day handed down to the Iranian people. Unsurprisingly, Green Voice is offering examples from the ongoing presentation of last Friday's shout-down of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini.

More Dorough....

The "hard-line" Kayhan, according to the Green site Rah-e-Sabz, is betraying its nervousness with a series of allegations, inventing foreign supporters, mysterious editors, and a headquarters in London for the opposition publication.

Political Prisoner Watch

Fereshteh Ghazi's posts an interview with the father of Amir Javadifar, who died in detention after he was arrested on 9 July. As Iran holds another court session, ostensibly to punish those who carried out abuses at Kahrizak Prison, Javadifar's father says, "We demand those who gave the orders at Kahrizak to be sentenced."

The Latest from Iran (5 June): Is That All There Is?

1945 GMT: The Follow-Up to Friday. Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement condemning the treatment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini during his speech yesterday.

1915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has approved a five-year prison sentence for Rajabali (Babak) Dashab. Dashab, arrested during the Ashura protests on 27 December, had been given a six term.

1715 GMT: Re-packaging the Supreme Leader. An interesting twist in Khabar Online's coverage of the Khamenei speech: rather than note his threats against the opposition, the website says he emphasised that "even enemies and dissidents have to be treated with justice and piety".

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The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

1545 GMT: Beating the Oil Squeeze? Press TV reports that Iran, now accepting the withdrawal of Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol from Phases 13 and 14 of the South Pars oil and gas field as definiite, is giving the project to the Iranian Khatam-ol-Osea Consortium for $5 billion.


1530 GMT: Jamming Neda. Voice of America reports that Iranian authorities jammed a documentary, For Neda, about Neda Agha-Soltan, who was killed during last year's post-election demonstrations.

The documentary, produced by Home Box Office in the US, was shown on Wednesday. It is due for re-broadcast on 12 June, the anniversary of the Presidential election, and 20 June, the anniversary of Neda's death, and it is also available on the Internet.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk[/youtube]

1515 GMT: More Support for Hassan Khomeini. In a letter to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has condemned Friday's disruption of Khomeini's speech as a systematic attack planned by extremists “to take revenge from Imam (Khomeini,Hassan's grandfather) and his followers".

1500 GMT: We reported yesterday that human rights activist Saba Vasefi had escaped arrest when she was away during a security forces' raid on her home.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran now reports, from a "reliable source", that Vasefi was hit by a motorcycle on Tuesday when she was in Shahryar, near Tehran, to check on a death penalty case. Vasefi struck her head on the road and is now in a coma.

1250 GMT: Reacting to Friday. The prominent conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has said that the disruption of Seyed Hassan Khomeini’s speech was "very sad" and "against freedom of speech that is one of the principles of Islamic Revolution".

Significantly, Motahari accused President Ahmadinejad of organising the sabotage of Khomeini's appearance.

Motahari said, "Ahmadinejad is like a spoilt child in a family where the more he annoys others, the more he is appreciated by the parents. If judiciary had put [Mehdi] Karroubi, [Mir Hossein] Mousavi, and Ahmadinejad all on trial, this would not have happened."

The Islamic Society of Tehran University has requested urgent action to be taken against those "small groups" who interrupted Hassan Khomeini, claiming the disruption was because of the hatred that the hardliners have for Imam Khomeini.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A story that slipped by us earlier this week....

Parveneh Osanloo, the wife of labour activist Mansour Osanloo, has said that her husband has been put in solitary confinement inside the Revolutionary Guard's Ward on new charges of “relations with state opposition groups”.

1240 GMT: Yesterday's Arrests. Tehran Police Chief Hossein Sajedinia has said 19 people were arrested during the commemorations of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0715 GMT: Forgive the blatant "Western" cultural reference in the title of the post, but this was my immediate thought after watching the regime's setpiece yesterday for the commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini's death. We have an analysis of the day, from the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei speeches to the unexpected "highlight" with the shout-down of Khomeini's grandson, in a separate entry.

In other news on an anti-climactic slow day (so far)....

Dastgheib's Support for Mousavi

The English translation of Ayatollah Dashgheib's letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi has been published:

Greetings,

I saw your statement which was published on Ordibehesht 23, 1389 (13 May 2010) and as I was certain of your religiousness, I am certain now too and I see you as someone with the love for Islam, Quran, and the Prophet’s and Holy Imam’s way of life, with good Islamic manner, devoted to Iran’s Islamic society, the establishment and the Islamic Republic of Iran, possessing honesty and purity, far from lies, betrayals and deceptions, and free from the love for earthly possessions and being in power.

What you stated about various issues are in accordance with the religious teachings and in compliance with the Constitution and the slogan of “independence, freedom and the Islamic Republic”. I, as a citizen, consider you useful and rather necessary for the continuation of the Islamic Revolution that was carried out by the people and the leadership of Imam Khomeini.

I am amazed by the people who considered themselves just but call your remarks, which are supported by reasons, deviation from the establishment and –-- may God have mercy on us –-- in confrontation with the establishment, and –-- may God have more mercy on us –-- accuse you unjustly, hideously and irrationally. These are disasters for you and us, and we should say, “We are all from God and we will return to him” about them.

Political Prisoner Watch

Women's rights activist Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in jail and 30 lashes for "acts against national security". Abbasgholizadeh was arrested on 21 December on her way to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

2010 GMT: Picture of the Day? Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani during the speech of the Supreme Leader:

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The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2000 GMT: Interrogation Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that security forces went to the home of human rights activist Saba Vasefi to arrest her, but she was not away. There is no information on her current situation and whereabouts.


Vasefi, a university instructor, researcher, human rights activist, and women’s rights activist, reportedly was looking into the case of a person sentenced to death but has not returned.

1704 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement continues to resonate, with his declaration that "they have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam".

Karroubi's website Saham News also clarifies the story, spread by Fars News, that the cleric was assaulted on Thursday. An incident did occur at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery The website adds that Karroubi was able to reach the Haram where --- significantly in light of today's events --- he was received by Hassan Khomeini.

1700 GMT: Absentees. No reformists, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami --- attended the ceremony today.

1645 GMT: The Big Story from Today --- Hassan Khomeini. It looks like the speech of President Ahmadinejad, and even that of the Supreme Leader, have been overshadowed by the sabotaging of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson.

The story is all over the Iranian web. The pro-regime Raja News is spreading the slogan, "Imam Khomeini's real nephew is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah [the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon]". The story is now spreading that Raja disseminated this before the ceremony today and encouraged the heckling of Hassan Khomeini.

It is also significant that Hassan Khomeini halted his speech after the chants of "Death to Mousavi" started, stating, "Please refrain from expressing such sentiments until the Leader takes the podium." During the Supreme Leader's speech, both he and Hashemi Rafsanjani kept their heads buried deep in their chests.

1520 GMT: Clerical Support. Ayatollah Dastgheib has written to Mir Hossein Mousavi, expressing his support for Mousavi's "sincerity and his avoidance of betrayal, lies, and hypocrisy".

1455 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shabnam Madadzadeh, vice president of the student organisation Daftar Tahkim Vahdat, and her brother Farzad have both been sentenced to five years in prison.

1450 GMT: Relaxing the Oil Squeeze? International Oil Daily claims that Royal Dutch Shell has resumed shipments to Iran, with three 30,000-ton deliveries of gasoline/petrol last month at the port of Bandar Abbas.

1445 GMT: Parliament v. President. Peyke Iran claims that Parliament's Article 90 Commission has said that it is not convinced of Ahmadinejad's defence of his Government's implementation of policies.

1440 GMT: Reading Larijani. And what of this what you will from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, explaining at a memorial service, "Today we see a backwardness which has nothing to do with the ideas of the Imam [Khomeini]."

1425 GMT: Reading Today. We've posted a snap analysis of the significance of today's speeches.

Khabar Online posts an article on the sabotage of Hassan Khomeini's speech. The website also claims that the Supreme Leader consoled Khomeini by kissing him on the forehead.

The reformist Green Voice of Freedom also covers the incident, emphasising Khomeini's declaration that those shouting down his words were "a minority".

0935 GMT: The Bad West. Khamenei is still criticising the West and Israel, claiming that the US and others try to restrict Iran's access to nuclear energy (but saying little more), as the crowds chants Death to the US and Death to Israel.

And that's about it as the Supreme Leader moves to a closing prayer and Press TV cuts its coverage.

0925 GMT: The Israel Rap. After leading the audience in prayer, the Supreme Leader uses the attack on the Freedom Flotilla as proof of Israel "murdering innocents" as Western "hypocrites and liars" observe and keep silent over the "barbaric and savage" Zionists.

0920 GMT: Back to the Challenge. "They started this chaos. They tried their efforts. They supported those rioters. The UK also supported them, Western powers [supported them]. MKO ["terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and all the opponents supported them. What was the result?....Our great people last year showed such a great power that dazzled the whole world."

0916 GMT: Audience Watch. They may be rivals for power, but Ahmadinejad is sitting next to Sadegh and Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad ally Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is three seats from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0912 GMT: Now I Will Shake My Fist. The Supreme Leader starts his attack on opposition figures by saying that individuals should not be judged on their past offices but on their present positions, adding that the first Imam, Imam Ali, fought former allies when they strayed.

How serious could this get? Khamenei notes that some people who accompanied Ayatollah Khomeini on his return to Iran in 1979 were later executed because they left the proper path. His message to opponents: "the yardstick for passing judgement is your present situation if, God forbid, Satan pushes [you] the wrong way".

0910 GMT: Still going on about Israel and Palestine, with an Iranian position "based on logic and not sloganeering".

0905 GMT: The Global Dimension. Instead of returning to the internal battle, the Supreme Leader uses his invocation of Khomeini and democracy to claim that Iran --- without interfering in the affairs of other countries --- is setting a "glorious example" to the rest of the world.

He quickly moves, however, from glory to darker language, setting up his anti-Israel section by invoking Ayatollah Khomeini's description of Israel as a "cancerous tumour".

0900 GMT: Legitimacy. Khamenei points to elections in the early days of the Islamic Republic: "In no other revolution do you see a referendum less than two months after victory." And, in the toughest times during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the elections were never postponed.

0850 GMT: Attack Resumed. Another not-so-veiled reference by Khamenei to political opponents as "mercenaries" of foreign, hostile powers. He speaks of their stances on Qods Day (September) and Ashura (27 December) --- both occasions of large opposition demonstrations --- and says that "we cannot remain silent" and "call ourselves followers of the Imam".

0830 GMT: The First Swipe. Khameini makes his first analogy with the contemporary situation, criticising those who were followers of Ayatollah Khomeini but "went their own way" and "lost their goals....After years, they stand against those ideals."

Mir Hossein Mousavi just happened to be Prime Minister during the last years of Ayatollah Khomeini's life.

(Interesting side note: the Supreme Leader reads and interprets sections of Khomeini's will but never notes his injunction against the involvement of the military in politics.)

0825 GMT: Disrespecting Khomeini. A quick flashback to the episode between the Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader speeches: the section of the crowd who sabotaged the speech of the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, were reportedly chanting, "Death to Mousavi". We've posted the video.

0820 GMT: Audience Check. In contrast to the lack of VIPs who showed up for President Ahmadinejad, everyone who is anyone is here for Khamenei. The three Larijani brothers have now appeared, as has former President Rafsanjani.

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader begins with a lengthy section lauding the steadfastness and piety of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0800 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei has just arrived on the stage. We have an urgent commitment this morning so we will be blogging the Supreme Leader's address "as live" in about three hours.

0800 GMT: Extraordinary development --- a section of the crowd is yelling to prevent Hassan Khomeini from speaking. He is now referring to this openly, asking "forgiveness for all of us". (Press TV makes no reference to the disruption.)

0752 GMT: A Surprise Appearance. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, is now speaking. That's a bit unexpected: Hassan Khomeini has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government and has been under sustained pressure to curb his activities.

He is greeted enthusiastically --- more enthusiastically than Ahmadinejad --- and has to pause repeatedly for the crowd to quiet before he can speak.

(Or, alternatively, is the loud noise meant to block Hassan Khomeini's speech?)

0750 GMT: Press TV does not even wait for the end of Ahmadinejad's speech before cutting away.

0745 GMT: Is It Empty Behind Ahmadinejad's Back?

All in all, a pretty uneventful speech. There was the standard Ahmadinejad rhetoric denouncing "the West" and Israel (although no direct reference to Iran's nuclear programme), and one passage went after his opponents, promising that the Iranian nation --- which backed him in the 2009 election --- would "annihilate" them.

But it was pretty tame compared to what we anticipated. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Ahmadinejad has definitely run out of ideas. His speech is repetitive and contains frankly nothing worth mentioning."

Indeed, the takeaway point so far this morning is not Ahmadinejad's speech but those who were not there: apart from Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, everyone must have been stuck in traffic. No Larijani brothers, no Rafsanjani, and no prominent "conservative" politicians.

0740 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes by invoking Khomeini: "The Iranian nation will follow down the Imam's path." And he has a final swipe at "arrogant powers", saying, "We are not afraid of their fabricated power."

0730 GMT: The President is now using the Freedom Flotilla incident to invoke "weak" and "crazy" Israel and the US "under the influence of the criminal Zionists".

Ahmadinejad warns that, if Washington does not stop its support of Israel, it will be "the end of President Obama" and "the end of the US". Any "new aggressive move" will mean the "death of the Zionist regime".

0727 GMT: Ahmadinejad is now back to the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini's triumph over the "arrogant powers", culminating in Iran's "final victory". Those who opposed Iran can now only "surrender to the righteous".

Highest-ranking VIP seen so far? Atomic energy chief Ali Akhbar Salehi.

An EA correspondent notes, "As a Persian saying would put it, 'It's empty behind his back.'"

0717 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad is going big-time against the "hypocrites" of the "Western powers" who challenged Ayatollah Khomeini.

And now he's moving to the "individuals" standing with those powers: "Those who are in league with enemeis cannot claim to follow Imam" --- "If they go awry...they will be removed from the scene by the people....Anyone who stands against this Revolution will be annihilated."

0715 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad goes after the opposition, those "selfish people" who tried to deny him the legitimacy of the election. He invokes Khomeini as referring to the "will of the people" and standing up to "arrogant powers".

0710 GMT: After several uneventful minutes, the President finally makes his play for legitimacy. He proclaims that the election witnessed 40 million Iranians --- 85% of eligible voters --- turning out in a "100% free election" to "set the record of democracy in the whole world".

And almost "25 million" voted for "their servant --- me".

0705 GMT: Nothing special so far in the Ahmadinejad speech. And no sign of major presences in the crowd --- which is muted so far --- although we did spot Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi in the VIP section.

0653 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now addressing the crowd with greetings in Arabic. Press TV has started live coverage.

A large banner under the podium has a quote from Khomeini, always present on this occasion: "America Cannot Do a Damn Thing".

We're watching the crowd to see which VIPs are present.

0650 GMT: Some live shots now from IRINN of the crowd at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine. An EA correspondent estimates "tens of thousands". possibly 100,000, but only the inner courtyard is shown.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi is fretting over the amount of contraband in the Iranian system: "Some 16 billion dollars worth of goods have been smuggled into Iran, while three billion dollars worth have been exported illegally during the last Iranian year."

0630 GMT: Karroubi Strikes. Mehdi Karroubi, who put out a lengthy video message yesterday, has also posted a forthright statement on Saham News:

[The regime officials] speak in a way as if Imam [Khomeini] belongs to them only and others have broken path with the Imam. Whoever objects to fraud in election is accused of being a Mossad or CIA agent. The fate of election is in the hands of Basijis and Sepah [Revolutionary Guards].

I am worried about the Islamic aspect of the regime. They have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam.

0600 GMT: Getting Priorities Right. Press TV have now elevated the remembrance of Ayatollah Khomeini by Iranians "in their millions" to its top story.

Still only a token reference to the Supreme Leader's speech as Press TV jumps to a statement by Hezbollah's Sheikh Nasrallah linking the Khomeini legacy to the "heroes of the Gaza aid flotilla".

0515 GMT: Trumped by the Flotilla? After all our morning analysis on the possible significance of today's Ahmadinejad/Khamenei speeches, a curious signal from Press TV.

The first 10 minutes of its morning news round-up is devoted not to Tehran Friday Prayers but to the aftermath of the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla.

Only after the steady stream of Iranian and international condemnation of the attack does Press TV turn to the commemoration of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini. There is the high-profile, and possibly risky, headline of Tehran police's prediction of more than two million at the shrine and on the streets, coming in "50,000 buses", but only a passing reference to the Supreme Leader's speech and none to Ahmadinejad's.

0500 GMT: Here We Go. Maybe.



This morning both President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will use the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini to deliver speeches on the political situation. Speaking from Khomeini's shrine, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Tehran's Friday Prayers, with Ahmadinejad offering an introduction.

As this is effectively the first regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), one public signal will be the size of the crowd for the occasion. There should be no problem filling the shrine --- an EA correspondent writes that it holds about 50,000 to 60,000 people --- but will there be a mass showing on the streets beyond?



That, however, may be the peripheral matter for propaganda; any debate over numbers tends to overlook the little fact that there is no big show of support for the regime between these high-profile occasions set a few months apart.

Instead, the immediate challenge will come in the content of the two speeches. Ahmadinejad showing up as the warm-up act is an important clue: an EA correspondent says an "introduction" of the Supreme Leader on this occasion is unusual. So the President's appearance, given his rhetoric and his need to establish his authority, points to a tough line on the opposition (and, possibly between the lines, to Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Iranian establishment).

But what about the Supreme Leader? EA staff note that he has two "hot" issues to handle: 1) the application for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election, by Mir Hossein Mousasvi and Mehdi Karroubi and 2) the maneouvres over the Tehran declaration on uranium enrichment by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey.

On the nuclear issue, the Supreme Leader has to decide between whether to hold out the prospect of continuing discussion with the "West" over a possible deal or, given the prospect of tougher sanctions, whether to tell Brazil and Turkey that there is no point in negotiating. The latter course of action would be a setback for Ahmadinejad, who still needs the prospect of a bargain on uranium for his political legitimacy, and a victory for the President's rival, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

That's important politics to handle, but still the primary issue for Khamenei is whether he offers any road back for the opposition, say, the line "repent and we will take you back", or whether he draws the line and says, "That's it. We're taking you down."

Does the Supreme Leader, for example, make an open declaration that the Green Movement and other "enemies" will not be allowed to gather on 12 June or does he avoid comment, letting Iran's bureaucracy turn down the Mousavi-Karroubi request?

And --- given the prospect that the opposition will still try to demonstrate --- does Khamenei, more than 11 months after his last Friday Prayer which said there would be no defiance of the election result, warn that this demonstration and its leaders will be crushed?