Iran Special: The Significance of the "Universities Crisis" (Verde)

UPDATE 0600 GMT: Nooshabeh Amiri, writing in Rooz English, offers a powerful opinion piece on last week's demonstrations, "Shut the Majlis, oh Brother!"

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Mr Verde writes for EA:

"Crisis" in a country is not usually associated with a debate over higher education. The military, the police, radio and TV, the courts, elections: these are the battlegrounds that come to mind.

Make no mistake, however. The current dispute in Iran over Islamic Azad University is important. It is significant not just because Ahmadinejad and Co. want to oust former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and his allies from the university's management. It is an indicator of other possible trouble within the regime.

First, the beginner's guide to the current dispute:

- The Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, headed by Ahmadinejad in his capacity as President, decides to overturn last summer's decision of the Azad University Board to make itself into a trust. The SCCR also said it would appoint new trustees.

- Azad University takes legal measures, and a court issues an injunction against the SCCR decision.

- The following day, the Parliament votes for legislation that will in effect block attempts by the SCCR to hand over the management of Azad University to the Government.

- There is a demonstration by a small number of regime-organized "students" outside the Majlis. The demonstrators shout slogans against the Parliament, the MPs, and the Speaker Ali Larijani. Some of the signs they are carrying are regarded as so rude that the Iranian Students News Agency blurs out the slogans. It is reported that one of the speakers at the gathering threatened that they would bombard the Majlis (as the Russian Colonel Liakhov had done on behalf of Mohammad Ali Shah in 1908).

- The following day the Parliament votes to annul its previous decision, even though the original bill is still in the process of being vetted by the Guardian Council. During the debate MPs insult each other and Ali Motahari claims that the pro-Ahmadinejad Koochakzadeh (who is close to Ahmadinejad) is of Russian descent and has changed his name from Koochakov. Motahari later claims that, during the debate, Koochatzadeh/Koochakov physically attacked him.

- After a request from Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, orders another court to review the injunction against the Council.

A bit of background:

The Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution was created by the Islamic Republic in the early 1980s, as part of the Cultural Revolution that shut universities for a few years. Since then, both Ayatollahs Khomeini and Khamenei have said that the the decisions of the SCCR should be considered as the law of the land and that the other state organs, including the Majlis, should not contradict these decisions.

The Supreme Leaders' declarations stand against the Constitution, under which the Majlis has the authority to pass laws on all matters. The Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution is not even mentioned in the Constitution.

Conclusion? The judge who ordered the injunction, in his interpretation of the Constitution, defied Ayatollah Khamenei’s standing orders regarding the decisions of the SCCR.

On the day the Parlaiment was debating the original law, one MP, citing the Supreme Leader’s views about the SCCR’s powers, tabled a motion to stop debate. MPs voted against the proposal.

Some more background:

When legislation is passed by the Majles, it has to be vetted by the Guardian Council. The Council will return legislation that it deems to be against the Constitution and/or Sharia law. At this stage the legislation is returned to Parliament.

If the Majlis tries to accommodate the views of the Council, the legislation is vetted again. If Parliament refuses to accommodate the Council, the legislation goes to the Expediency Council. In such a case, the Expediency Council’s decision will become law.

One issue that stands out:

At the present time, two laws have been pass by the Majles within two days, with the second negating the first. This does not look like confidence. It looks like chaos and crisis.

The demonstration in front of the Majlis:

Was Ayatollah Khamenei behind the demonstration, its slogans, and speeches, or at least supportive of it? He certainly did not condemn it, as he has the post-election demonstrations including millions of Iranians.

Why resort to the embarrassing, costly, chaotic, and illegal tactic of organizing the demonstration outside the Majlis? Why not ensure that the Council of Guardians rejects the legislation, returns it to Parliament, and then ensure that the Majlis votes in the way the Government wants?

Surely the regime should be able to rely on the trusted Council of Guardians. And the current Parliament has been filtered through two elections, with the Guardian Council weeding out the candidacy of almost all reformist “troublemakers”. (Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani said that this is Khamenei’s Majlis. Note that he forgot to mention that the Majlis is supposed to belong to the people.)

Yet it appears that, despite this supposed control of the legislative process, even a heavily-sanitized Majlis is no longer reliable, so rent-a-thugs have to be paraded in front of the Majlis and insult their own MPs.

Implications:

We are witnessing the use of regime demonstrators against an increasing number of people and institutions. That indicates, that for some reason, the regime’s internal structures are failing. Amidst what appears to be a serious crisis within the Islamic Republic,its institutions are unable to resolve it; at times they seem to be making it worse.

We are seeing increasingly angry speeches by Khamenei, directed at regime insiders, and comical announcements such as:

- It was announced aid ships were being sent to Gaza and escorted by the Revolutionary Guards. Then it was announced that no escort would be provided. Then it was announced that no aid ship would be sent, ostensibly to avoid war with Israel. Then it was announced that the ships did not go because Egypt had refused them permission to pass through the Suez Canal, only for Cairo to deny Tehran's claim.

- We have wildly varying timescales about self sufficiency in production of petrol: from 24 hours to more than two years. (The list is long and tiresome)

If all of this does not indicate a crisis, what would?

The Latest from Iran (24 June): Persistence

2015 GMT: International Front. By the narrow margin of 99-0, the US Senate has approved a bill with sweeping sanctions --- far wider than the UN resolution that passed earlier this month --- on Iran's banking and energy sectors.

1545 GMT: Parliament v. President. Video has been posted of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani's speech in the aftermath of the Basij/student demonstrations against the Majlis bill asserting control of Islamic Azad University.

NEW Iran Special: Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Strategy of “We Are Still Standing (for the Revolution)”
Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 June)
Iran Eyewitness: An “Army of Strollers” and Allah-o-Akbar on 12 June (Tehran Bureau)
The Latest from Iran (23 June): Baghi Freed

1510 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist and Mousavi campaign worker Arash Sadeghi has been sentenced to six years in prison and 74 lashes.

Labour activist Mohammad Ashrafi has been arrested.

Student Sina Tahani, detained earlier this month for distributing Mousavi and Karroubi leaflets, has turned 18 in prison.

Photographs of filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad, released yesterday from detention, have been released.



1240 GMT: This Week's Political News --- Shutting Down the Reformists? An EA correspondent follows up the news, which we noted earlier this week, that Parliament has deferred the local elections for Tehran and other city councils until spring 2012.

The correspondent asserts, "Should the Guardian Council approve this, this would give time to the conservatives to rout the reformists, removing them completely from the political radar. I believe it to be an ominous sign regarding the attitude of the ruling clique towards the concept of electoral politics."

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Fatemeh Shams, the wife of student activist Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour, has told Radio Farda, "In a short phone call [on 20 June, six days after his detention], he told his mother that he was being held in solitary [confinement], but when asked in which prison, he remained silent."

Shams added, "Two days before Mohammad Reza's arrest, I received threatening e-mails from a group called the Cyber Army of the Islamic Republic saying 'we'll arrest your husband.'" The same group sent her another threatening e-mail after her husband's arrest saying, "We'll make you return to Tehran."

Seyed Hossein Marashi, former member of Parliament, Vice President in the Khatami Administration, and brother–in-law of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has given leave of absence from prison for a week. Marashi is serving one year in prison for propaganda  against the regime.

1225 GMT: Parliament v. President. Footage has emerged of the Basij/student demonstration in front of Parliament on Tuesday, protesting the Majlis bill maintaining control (and thus refusing to cede it to the President) over Islamic Azad University.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87ANAadXRwA&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

0754 GMT: The Situation Abroad. Writing in Rooz, Kaveh Ghoreishi highlights, "Iranian Refugees In Iraq Face Uncertain Fate".

0750 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that 325 people were arrested during the month of Khordaad (May/June).

0730 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis, "We Are Still Standing (for the Revolution) of Wednesday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Academic Corner

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, with an interview with a student activist, highlights, "Summonses, Notices, and Dismissals at Qazvin International University".
Political Prisoner Watch

Fars News reports that the trial in Tehran Revolutionary Court of blogger Hossein Derakhshan has finally begun.

Derakhshan was arrested 19 months ago. He is accused of “cooperation with enemy states, propaganda against the Islamic regime, promoting anti-Revolutionary groups, insulting sanctities, launching and managing vulgar and obscene sites”.

Derakhshan was one of the first Iranian bloggers when he created “Editor: Myself.” He had settled in Canada but was detained when he returned to Iran in November 2008.

Where's Mahmoud?

For President Ahmadinejad, it is still eyes front-and-centre on the international front. He told an audience Wednesday, "The recent [United Nations sanctions] resolution against the Iranian nation was in fact a loud announcement of the fall of liberalism and humanism. Those who ratified the resolution are perfectly aware that it will have no impact."

The Latest from Iran (20 June): Remembering the Protests and the Dead

2000 GMT: Soroush and Khamenei. The website of Abdulkarim Soroush, one of Iran's most prominent intellectuals --- now living in exile --- has published the English translation of Soroush's letter to the Supreme Leader, "Flagging Oratory (and Mind?)".

1950 GMT: Limiting the Remembrance. Pictures and video show a heavy security presence in Tehran's Vanak Square:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6KAX0Oj5oo[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Takes on the Supreme Leader (20 June)
NEW Iran Special: Legal Analysis of Post-Election Violations of Rights (Shadi Sadr)
NEW Iran Video, One Year On: The “Neda” Documentaries
Iran: Working Together? The Women’s Movement & The Greens (Kakaee)
Iran Analysis: Why the 2009 Election is Not Legitimate (Ansari)
The Latest from Iran (19 June): How Does Mahmoud Respond?

1645 GMT: The Karroubi Statement. We've posted lengthy extracts in a separate entry --- with its apparent challenge to the powers of the Supreme Leader, is this a significant step forward for the cleric?

1620 GMT: The Threat to the Reformists. The Islamic Iran Participation Front, responding to the declaration of the Tehran Prosecutor General that the party would be banned and might be broken up, said  Abbas Jafari Doulatabi's remarks were "private and without legal value".

1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has reportedly declared that he would like to retire, but were he to step down from positions such as head of the Expediency Council, there would be "grave political consequences".

1445 GMT: Today's Hijab Discussion. Member of Parliament Reza Akrami has declared that the President "should ask himself why he protests" against enforcement of the law on hijab.

Ahmadinejad spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr did a bit of "don't look at us", saying that the Government is not responsible for the crackdown on "bad hijab" because the security forces are not controlled by the Minister of the Interior.

1250 GMT: One Year Ago. Setareh Sabety reminds us of the words she posted, on the morning of 25 Khordaad (20 June) 2009:

I pray, even though an atheist, I pray that today this all important day, courage and justice is triumphant and that there will be no blood shed. I pray that no mother has to hear bad news, no woman is martyred and no young man beaten or arrested. I pray that these people whom I love, who are risking their lives with incredible courage for me and you, are not harmed and that their silent, persistent message of the basic need for freedom and democracy wins the day.

1245 GMT: The Reformist Challenge. The message from member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh to the Government is  direct and to the point: "Stop these radical behaviours."

1200 GMT: Cyber-Shutdown. Parleman News reports Persianblog, Iranicloob, and Blogfa have now been filtered.

1155 GMT: We've posted a special feature, Shadi Sadr's legal analysis of the post-election violation of rights by Iranian authorities.

1055 GMT: Documenting "Neda". Iranian state television has broadcast the "real" story of the killing of Neda Agha Soltan, "Crossroades". It features Abbas Javid Kargar, the Basij militiaman accused of the murder, who claims he was unarmed on that day and played no role in her death.

So who did it? The documentary implies that the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) was responsible.

Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save Neda's life, has posted his response to the documentary's claims.

And we've re-posted two other documentaries on "Neda" and post-election events, the BBC/PBS/Tehran Bureau production, "An Iranian Martyr", and HBO's "For Neda".

1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that activists and students have been detained in Hormozogan Province.

RAHANA reports that eight students have been arrested in Shiraz on charges of "propaganda against the Prophet".

0925 GMT: Political Prisoners and the Labour Front.

The International Transport Workers Federation has denounced the further arrests of members of Sandikaye Kargarane Sherkate Vahed, the Tehran bus workers’ union in Iran.

Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahbi were arrested in June by Iranian security forces and are being held at an unknown location. They join Mansour Osanloo and Ebrahim Madadi, both in prison since 2007, in detention.

In a letter to President Ahmadinejad, ITWF General Secretary David Cockroft said: “We once again reiterate that the carrying out of normal trade union duties is not an arrestable offence and should never be the grounds for the detention of Saeed Torabian, of Mansour Osanloo, or anyone else. We therefore request that you once again intervene in this process, remedy this situation, and also assure the good health and safety of Mansour Osanloo, who remains unjustly imprisoned.”

Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that workers at the Zhaveh reservoir dam in the Kurdish Kamyaran region have gone on strike over non-payment of seven months of back wages, workers yearly bonuses, overtime wages, and dues.

0810 GMT: The Clerics Fight Back? Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has said that the distance between religion and revolutionary principles is the reason for the weakness of Iran's judiciary.

The more intriguing report, however, is in Rah-e-Sabz. The website claims that Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and Hassan Khomeini have all been on the telephone with Grand Ayatollah Sanei: these attacks were not a rebellion of unorganised people but a planned assault.

0800 GMT: The Battle Within (cont.). The latest jab of Keyhan, the "hard-line" newspaper, at the Government is a query about Ahmadinejad's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: why did he, in one of his many offices, give money to a rich artist?

0720 GMT: The Battle Within. The opposition's commemorations and the execution of "terrorists" has not entirely taken the headline heat off the President. Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, has told Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he cannot interfere in the affairs of other regime institutions.

0630 GMT: Remembering 25 Khordaad. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement reflecting on the protests of 20 June 2009:

"Today the Green Movement owes its place to the resistance of women, who along with their spouses and children, and as a group of leaders on the front lines have had a unique presence. The movement should realize that achieving freedom and democracy without the presence of noble women and without considering and implementation of the demands to eliminate discrimination and violence that women have always asked will not be possible.”

0625 GMT: Karroubi on the Vote and the Supreme Leader. Saham News, the website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published the cleric's  latest statement. Karroubi opens:

One year after the 10th Presidential election, considering what they did with your votes and the blood that was shed for regaining your rights, once again firmly and honestly, I declare that I am standing on my promise with you to the end of this path and I am ready to debate with anyone who would represent the ruling powers.
The vote that they stole from you and the right that was brutally denied from you is a shame that cannot be covered in anyway. Such that after one year despite all the pressure and intimidations not only your rightful demands have not been forgotten but also this seek for change has penetrated in various layers of the society based on an extensive social network and this social extent is not something that can be eliminated by repressions, intimidations, arrests and staged trials.

This declaration of defiance from 12 June 2009 to the present is followed by thoughts about the recent pro-regime attacks on senior clerics, used by Karroubi to consider "the powers of the Supreme Leader". In other words --- if I'm reading this right --- if Ayatollah Khameni is the ultimate defender of the Islamic Republic, why is he not defending its leading religious figures and its people?

0600 GMT: Today is likely to be dominated by remembrance of last year's mass demonstration, eight days after the Presidential election and a day after the Supreme Leader tried to close off debate, and those who died.

For many, Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-0ld woman killed by a Basij militia gunshot, became the symbol of tragedy and hope, and outside Iran, her name remains a beacon. (The #4Neda hashtag may be one of the most prominent on Twitter today.)

Inside Iran, however, there will be memorials for all those killed on 20 June and in the days after the election. It is reported that four Tehran universities are holding services, and there is chatter of events across the country.

The Iranian Government, however, has made a late bid to take over the headlines by adding another death: this morning it executed Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent Jundullah organisation.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi0IMc1uXMY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Iran Analysis: Why the 2009 Election is Not Legitimate (Ansari)

More than a year later, the fight goes on over the validity of the 2009 Presidential election. In the face of the questions not only about the vote but also the intimidation, state propaganda, and detentions that surrounded it, defenders of the Government re-present a series of flawed polls and A report --- based on the Guardian Council's attempt to vindicate the process --- to put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "victory" beyond doubt.



I won't repeat my dissection of those defenders here, since the campaign for civil rights and the issue of the Government's legitimacy are now far beyond the elections. I'll just note that I picked up new information this week that the decision to manipulate the electoral results had been established 72 hours before the ballot.

Ali Ansari, writing for Chatham House's World Review, offers this overview, taking apart seven myths propping up the platform of a rightly-elected President:

Iran's 10th Presidential election, on 12 June last year, was the most controversial and contested poll in the 30 years of the Islamic Republic. Far from anointing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with a landslide election victory for a second term, the credibility of the result was immediately in question, unleashing the most extraordinary public anger against the governing elite.

The street protests subsided, but there is little sign of the widespread anger the result generated dissipating. The situation remains tense and the governing elite is no less anxious about the future. Unlike other disputeswhich have periodically shaken the Islamic Republic, this one affects and divides the political elite like no other. The government remains determined to promote its account of a free and fair election, convinced that it has defeated a "velvet revolution". This is the reason given for the brutal crackdown, which continues to this day.

A year on, it is worth revisiting some of the urban myths which have come to underpin this standoff:

Those who allege fraud must prove their case; the government is innocent until proven guilty

Not so; in any political system which claims democratic procedures and values, it is the governing elite and holders of power who must answer to the people, not the other way round. Accountability must be transparent and not a matter of faith. Accountability is the basis of any democratic settlement, without it the process of ‘voting’ is mere procedural window dressing.

In Iran, with its fragile democracy under considerable attack, the situation is more acute.
As a consequence of the election victories of President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and 2001,a plan was implemented to organise and manipulate the electoral system to ensure the desired result. As a result, the parliamentary and presidential elections from 2004 to 2008 saw a gradual collapse in turnout, with optimistic estimates for Tehran in 2008 barely reaching thirty percent. For particular reasons, only the 2006 municipal election was an exception.

Last year, all the major institutions of government, including those with oversight of the
election were in the hands of the government faction. At least three members of the Guardian Council, the Chief of the General Staff, and the Supreme Leader, all voiced support for Ahmadinejad. In such a climate the burden of proof --- and accountability --- lies with the government, not the people.

Read rest of article....

The Latest from Iran (18 June): Hardliners Criticise Ahmadinejad

1510 GMT: Twitter and Civil Rights. We have posted a response to the latest attempt to set straight the relationship between social media and the post-election political situation in Iran.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ebrahim Rashidi, who disappeared on Monday, has reportedly called his family from Ardebil's intelligence detention centre.

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Latest from Iran (17 June): Clearing Away the Smoke

Journalist Hassan Etemadi has been given a two-year sentence, and journalist Shahin Zeynali has been handed a term of two years and 91 days.

The former mayor of Ghasr-e Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been detained and transferred to a centre in Kermanshah. No reason for his arrest has been given.

1330 GMT: Through the Looking Glass on the Hijab. Reviewing today's Tehran Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, I think we are now caught up in a contortion of politics. Iran has suddenly become a place where defenders of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad praise him for "a relatively liberal government approach" and turn their fire upon the "hardliners", rather than the opposition.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tZ2a0_3sNw&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

For the headline from Jannati's speech today, in contrast to his previous appearances, is not the threat of heavy punishment upon the opposition but his criticism of Ahmadinejad for raising the "cumbersome" issue of the "morality police" and their efforts to enforce "good behaviour" such as the wearing of the hijab.

Linking those who acted or dressed inappropriately to "drug traffickers" and "terrorists", Jannati said that women who defied the rules on proper clothing were "worse than poison". No one (he means you, Mahmoud) had "the right to tie the hands" of those enforcing the law.

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Hijab Problem. It seems the President has got himself in a political tangle over his complaint about "morality police" cracking down on supposed social transgressions, including "bad hijab".

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that Ahmadinejad's directives are the basis for his officials' actions.

High-profile member of Parlaiment Ali Motahari has declared that the President has been adversely influenced by his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Mashhad's Friday Prayer leader, has asserted, "Unfortunately Ahmadinejad does not give the right attention to implementing religious rules."

Member of Parliament Mohammad Taghi Rahbar says he is ready to discuss the issue with Ahamadinejad on television.

0950 GMT: Today's Khabar Kick on the Government's Shins. Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, has suggested that Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini might have to resign because he wants to complete a Ph.D. dissertation.

The website, as reported by Peyke Iran, also points to 11 "suspicious" comments by the President in the last 76 days.

0945 GMT: Take Your Resolution and Stick It. Iran's National Security Council has issued a strongly-worded denunciation of the UN Security Council sanctions resolution on Tehran's nuclear programme:

Contrary to all expectations, the resolution has focused on Iran's nuclear program, without so much as a word about the Israeli regime's criminal activities and its attack on the Freedom Flotilla convoy carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip only 10 days ago.

Also, the resolution brazenly ignores the 11 proposals put forward by Iran during Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which have been welcomed by world countries.

The council takes issue with the adoption of the resolution, particularly since it came despite constructive cooperation and the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear material for the 22nd consecutive time....

"This clearly shows that Washington's commitment to Israeli security will never allow UN Security Council to fulfill its obligations with regards to securing the safety and the rights of different nations....

The Islamic Republic of Iran will respond fittingly to any attempt to violate the legal and legitimate rights of the Iranian nation," the statement added.

0845 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Eldar Mamedov, "Iran: How Europe Can Help".

0840 GMT: Economy Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has complained that people are still not informed about the Government's subsidy reduction plan.

0805 GMT: A Boast (and an Admission?). Tehran police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, trying to wash away criticism of last year's attack on Tehran University's dormitories, has said, "We were prepared for the elections one week in advance." The dorm incidents were predictable because Communists and neo-Marxists following Mehdi Karroubi had come onto the streets.

Not sure if Ahmadi-Moghaddam realises this, but his statement gives indirect support to allegations of a manipulated election --- the security forces were preparing for violence because they knew in advance that there might be anger over an "adjusted" vote. (More on this on Saturday....)

Meanwhile, member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has kept up his pressure on the Government, saying that the Majlis never completed a full report --- despite its promises --- on the dormitory attacks: "Only parts of it exist and are in our minds."

0800 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Some more pressure on the regime: Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the Friday Prayer leader of Kashan, has said, "If attacks on marja in Qom become normal, the future is not predictable."  Hojatolelsam Mehdi Tabatabai asserts, "God will not forgive those who insulted the 14 Khordad [4 June] ceremony."

0645 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics --- An Apology? Hmm, wondering if this might be an important signal....

In a wide-ranging interview on Parleman News, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani makes the statement that "whoever does not respect the marja (senior clerics)... shows his worthlessness". Larijani asserts that the marja "are the pillars of nezam", the Iranian system, and "the Supreme Leader up to the chiefs of Iran's forces see them as such".

An EA correspondent gets to the point with the question, "Is this an indirect apology from Ayatollah Khamenei?"

0640 GMT: The Economic Squeeze. Reuters publishes a summary of foreign companies who have pulled back from operations inside Iran and those who continue to do business.

0550 GMT: A Victory in Britain. It is reported that actress and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights activist Kiana Firouz has been granted "leave to remain"' in the UK, removing the threat of deportation to Iran.

Firouz had been refused asylum on two previous occasions, prompting a campaign to prevent her return to Tehran.

0535 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. It is reported that the website of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been filtered.

Kalemeh publishes a letter from Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the Grand Ayatollah, to senior clerics in Qom. Montazeri describes Sunday's attack on the Grand Ayatollah's home and offices and asks for a denunciation of the assault.

0515 GMT: Today's white noise starts out of Washington rather than Tehran, as the Obama Administration --- trying to hold back the tide of Congressional action on Iran --- plays up rhetorically to the legislators.

Speaking at a hearing on Thursday, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave the rationale for the adjusted approach of the White House to US missile defence:

One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles, or a handful.

"It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.

An editorial aside:I wonder if and when the Administration will ever realise that this appeasement --- not of Iran but of Congress --- will never free up its approach towards Tehran but will limit and even undermine any hope of crafting a thoughtful policy towards the Iranian situation.

Meanwhile, getting back to significant developments, we catch up with this week's potentially important analysis by reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh. A Deputy Interior Minister in the Khatami Government and post-election detainee, Tajzadeh has published a lengthy consideration of today's Iran through a review of the past, apologising for the reformists' role in the detention and execution of political prisoners in the 1980s.

We've posted extracts from the Tajzadeh analysis, accompanied by interpretation for Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau.