The Latest from Iran (14 June): The 2nd Year Is Underway....

1955 GMT: The Sting in Mousavi's Statement. While making the obvious moves over 22 Khordaad, stressing opposition resilience and the Government's struggle for legitimacy, Mir Hossein Mousavi used Sunday's attacks on the homes of prominent clerics to extend his challenge:

More than ever before, the people in government need to create 'incidents' that enable them to conceal the consequences of the misfortunes they have brought about for the country. Attacking the office of an eminent cleric and an admired student of Imam Khomeini [Grand Ayatollah Sane'i] is entering a new phase in creating such crises.

Have they forgotten that it was attack against the house of Imam Khomeini which paved the way for liquidating the roots of tyranny on 6 June 1963 and laid the foundation for [the revolution of] February 1979?

Have they still not learned their lesson?

NEW Iran: The Attack on Montazeri, Sane’i, Karroubi
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Next Push Against “Nothing Special”
Iran Document: Karroubi “Greens Stronger & More Mature Than Last Year” (12 June)
Iran Special: EA Gets Highest Award from Tehran Government!
Iran: The US State Department’s Comment on the Election Anniversary
Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup “Greens 1, Darks 0″ (Lucas)
The Latest from Iran (13 June): And So It Goes On….

1810 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour of the Third Wave Movement has been re-arrested.

Jalaiepour was detained in June and held for 88 days.

1745 GMT: Mousavi Speaks. In a brief statement, Mir Hossein Mousavi has praised the fortitude of the Iranian people and the Green Movement o on the anniversary of the election and asserted that the unprecedented security deployment shows how the regime has failed to convince the public of its legitimacy.

Mousavi has promised a statement tomorrow outlining the objectives and strategies of the Green Movement.

1740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Behzad Heidari, a student activist from Amir Kabir University, was arrested on 12 June during a protest near Enghelab Square.


1735 GMT: No, I Didn't. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has denied that he issued an order blocking detainees' visits with their families (see separate analysis).

1720 GMT: Human rights and women's rights activist Saba Vasefi has regained consciousness after being in a coma for two weeks. Vasefi was struck by a motorcyclist who fled, hitting her head on the curbside.

1550 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Reformist member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari has demanded that the security forces who carried out the attack on Grand Ayatollah Sane'i's house be held accountable.

1445 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. We've published the most concise account we've seen so far --- from Saham News --- of Sunday's attack by a pro-regime crowd on Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, the family of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and Mehdi Karroubi in Qom.

1255 GMT: The Attack on Ayatollah Sane'i. The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted 33 photographs of the damage caused by the crowd that surrounded the house of Ayatollah Sane'i on Sunday.

1225 GMT: Assessing 22 Khordaad. There is still a siege of ill-informed pieces on Saturday's events in the Western media, as well as high-brow discussions of the "Green Movement" which ignored the latest developments.

In this context, the report of Michael Theodoulou --- who has excellent sources in Iran --- takes on added importance:

Thousands of Iranians, defying regime threats, staged a silent and peaceful anti-government protest in Tehran on yesterday’s anniversary of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election a year ago, witnesses told The National.

“There were many women, some veiled in black, and many men, people of all ages,” one Tehran resident said....

One witness, who has proven consistently reliable in the past, said that there were at least 100,000 protestors....“There was little chanting but once in a while you could hear ‘down with the dictator’,” he said. Security forces beat some with batons to break up gatherings....

“This can well be considered a success for the opposition,” said an analyst in Tehran who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They [the protestors] managed to make the government admit its fear and weakness by bringing so many forces to the streets,” he said. “And by remaining silent, most of the time, they managed to suffer the least beatings and arrests – so far.”

NEW Iran: The Attack on Montazeri, Sane’i, Karroubi
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Next Push Against “Nothing Special”
Iran Document: Karroubi “Greens Stronger & More Mature Than Last Year” (12 June)
Iran Special: EA Gets Highest Award from Tehran Government!
Iran: The US State Department’s Comment on the Election Anniversary
Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup “Greens 1, Darks 0″ (Lucas)
The Latest from Iran (13 June): And So It Goes On….

1205 GMT: Iranian Embassy in London "Hosts" Protest Film. HomyLafayette reports on how demonstrators projected a short film, documenting the post-election unrest and crackdown, onto the facade of the Iranian Embassy in London on Saturday night.

1200 GMT: Another Attack on a Cleric. Khabar Online reports that an "unknown person or persons" attacked the home of Ayatollah Nouri-Hamedani last night, breaking windows.

0725 GMT: Ahmadinejad on the Election. The President did mark the anniversary of the Presidential vote in his interview on national television about "the manifestation of the united and grand human will of 40 million people in a 100 percent free" vote. He claimed, "Those who opposed [the election] were governments of injustice who interfered in [our] internal affairs. Even the American president, who was new to the scene, joined them. But the Iranian nation defeated them."

0720 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has issued a statement about the attack on the Montazeri offices:

The interesting point...is the presence and silence of the police and special security forces and the complete coordination between them and the plain clothes militia! In this attack all the items of the office were damaged and the photos of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri were torn up and insulted. They broke office’s windows, chairs and even the television set, torn down the curtains and by hanging from the ceiling fan and treading down the vacuum cleaner damaged them.

Following these attacks on the morning of Monday, 14 June 2010, about 12 individuals from intelligence forces with a court order from the Special Court for the Clergy in Qom came to the office of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and searched the office, confiscated the damaged items, and shut down and sealed the office; and by this action approved all the destructive actions of those who attacked. While one would expect from the security forces to control the plain clothes individuals and bring security to the area, unfortunately not even one of the thugs was arrested.

0650 GMT: The Battle Within. An important signal of a possible anti-Ahmadinejad coalition, sanctioned by the Supreme Leader, and a boost to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani: Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, has warned the President that he cannot interfere in the responsibilities and authorities of other officials of the regime: "Some people are trying to take advantage of the situation and take on responsibilities for which they lack the necessary competence.”

Janati writes that the Guardian Council is the only point of reference for determining the legality of Parliament’s legislations and other officials and government bodies “have no duty other than executing and heeding those laws” once they are approved by the Guardian Council.

A less dramatic sign of challenge comes from Fereydoun Hemmati of the Supreme Audit Council, who claims the Government's budget declaration is "full of attacks and lies".

And Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam of Parliament's Economic Commission has reiterated that "the government cannot refuse to implement laws".
0645 GMT: The 4 June Fall-Out. Add Ayatollah Javadi Amoli to the long list of senior figures denouncing the regime's mis-handling of the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, criticising the shout-down of his grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: "The events were an obvious injustice to the Imam and his beyt descendants."

0615 GMT: The 22 Khordaad Arrests. Daneshjoo News claims, from "informed sources", that about 400 people detained on Saturday have been moved to Evin Prison.

0610 GMT: More on Tomorrow's Statement (see 0540 GMT). The advance notice of the statement for Tuesday claims that "Mir Hossein Mousavi [has] proposed a charter for the Green Movement which includes objectives, strategies and definition for [its] identity...and offered it as a proposed platform to the movement to be reviewed and judged by the public and the experts."

0600 GMT: ??????. I am at a loss to evaluate this statement made yesterday on national television on Sunday by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It is either the height of hypocrisy or a relevation of a President who is not in command. From Agence France Presse:

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday that he was "strongly" opposed to a police crackdown against women deemed to be in un-Islamic dress and on the behaviour of youths in public.
"I am strongly against such actions. It is impossible for such actions to be successful," Ahmadinejad said in an interview on state television when asked about the crackdown which has intensified in past weeks....

"I prefer to work in a cultural way. Any punishment must be given after a judge's decision," said Ahmadinejad, adding that his government had no role in the crackdown.

"The government is not interfering in this. We consider it is insulting to ask a boy and girl about their relationship. Nobody has the right to ask people such a question," he said.

"I hope such things will not happen in our country and that such actions are stopped before I have to give serious warnings," he added.

0540 GMT: Now to the Next Anniversary. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has announced that Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi will issue a statement tomorrow, the anniversary of the first mass protest against the Presidential election.

Meanwhile, Green Voice of Freedom has posted an English-language summary of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference that was held several days before the 12 June demonstration but mysterious disappeared.

0530 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of "The Regime's Next Push" against an opposition that refused to go away on 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 election.

One of the incidents this weekend pointing to continued tension was the gathering of protesters outside the home of Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, who was meeting Mehdi Karroubi, in Qom. Another video of the gathering has emerged:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qim9MkopK5Q&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Iran Document: Karroubi "In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran" (9 June)

Mehdi Karroubi's interview with Rooz Online, published 9 June and translated by Khordaad 88:

Mr Karroubi, you have said before that you expected after Imam Khomeini’s death you will become more isolated by some individuals , who are these individuals ? and Why?

There was difference of opinion and approach among the forces and factions [at that time] . In other words , some had different interpretations of Islam, state and the Islamic republic [than us]. Since these factions were more close to centers of power=;, their views and opinions were more likely to be implemented.

Which groups?

Political groups like Motalefeh Party, Association of Clergy, Association of Religious Teachers. We had differences of opinion that led to discussions and arguments between us. These differences revolved around issues such as , taxation, municipal land, and other issues that were important at the time. However, Imam Khomeini’s support for us or our ideas would set them back. They had also come to understand that Imam preferred our opinions over theirs despite the fact that he had respect for them and he would appoint some of their important members to the Guardian Council.



These differences led to formation of the Expediency Discernment Council . As Dr. Mehrpour mentioned [once], if the Guardian Council had adopted a more open policy toward various issues and would consider Imam Khomeini’s warning, the Expediency Council would not have been formed. But we knew after Imam’s death , those groups will increase their power and presence, and we will become more isolated. And this is what has happened. Using their power through the Special Clerical Court, the Guardian Council and individuals that I do not want to name isolated the Imam’s Path forces.

Are the individuals that you prefer not to name the same people that you have referred to previously and said: “They could not tolerate a party office or newspaper”, “They want [to take control of ] the government to satisfy their own interests", “They engaged in fraudulent activity after the death of Imam Khomeini"?  Who are these people?

They are the same people who run the country now. In the judiciary they are those who order newspapers and offices closed. They are in the Ministry of Intelligence....They are in Basij, IRGC [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps], and among the Friday Prayer Imams. I should also mention that the traditional conservative forces with whom we were friends before despite our many differences have also to various degrees supported these people. Unfortunately, now an entirely new group of people with Ahmadinejad on top and others in lower ranks are leading [the country].

[Previously] you talked about the boat of the state that does not have capacity for 70 million people. In this turbulent sea of politics, is there a chance that this boat will reach the shore safely?

It is obvious that a boat does not have much capacity to manoeuvre even in calm waters. The sea needs a giant ship. And when the sea turns stormy and turbulent , 70 million people should be present to safely guide the ship to the shore. Therefore I think the current situation will not last [for long] and we are eventually forced to return to reforms although we will have to pay the costs.

What do you think the most important issues of the country are?

Losing the trust of the nation, militarizing the society, and deviating from the ideals of the revolution [are the most important issues we face today]. We have reduced ourselves to such a low level that we treat the family of Imam Khomeini with such disrespect [a reference to the treatment of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, at the 4 June ceremony for his grandfather's death]. They dare tell Mr. Jamarani, who has been organizing ceremonies on this day for Imam for 20 years, to stop organizing the ceremony this year.

Do we have to witness changing the mood of the society to one of fear where tight security and control is imposed every day? Do we have to see forces armed with anti-riot shields march our streets every day? Nothing will work like this. The government should create security not constrain it. The way the authorities define "security’"seems very different [than what it should be]. Despite all, I believe this situation would not last; in the end the wiser ones will take over.

Everyone’s talking about the necessity to reexamine the Constitution. Where do you see the source of the problems in the Constitution? What should be done?

Every constitution has its own faults. I have said this many times. There is only one book without mistakes, and that’s the holy book, Quran. As Muslims we believe in that. It is possible that a non-Muslim becomes critical of Quran. [No book is perfect, and] it is for this very reason that Imam [Khomeini] allowed the possibility to reexamine the constitution. It is a common practice in the whole world to change the laws according to the most recent conditions and needs of the day. However, even if this constitution is acted upon [in our society], many of our problems would be resolved.

According to the existing constitution, the head of the judiciary is chosen by Supreme Leader. Does this process interfere with the independence of the judiciary branch? Do you not see any contradictions in this process?

At the time, those who created this process did the right thing. But right now we are degrading this law with our actions. Keep in mind that this process was not always like this, and later changed to become as such. Early on, five people constituted the leadership of the judiciary branch. Two of them were chosen by the Supreme Leader and three of them were chosen by a group of judges in a free and competitive election process. The problem right now is that the judiciary branch cannot act on its own and is taken over by the security officials.

What is the main demand of the Green Movement, and what can it be?

This movement that manifests itself through calm, nonviolent protests that takes the form of civil disobedience is created out of the insult and dissatisfaction that resulted from different elections.

Which elections?

The 7th and 8th parliamentary elections and the 9th and 10th Presidential elections. All the dissatisfactions piled up until it exploded after the 10th Presidential elections. This movement is originates from the hearts of people; it is a self-evolving movement. It is a movement that was created over the structure of force that the authorities created for people.

What are you after in this movement?

We are looking to see the full enactment of the Constitution: that we can have a free and sound election,and benefit from free political parties and newspapers; that students are free [to express what they want]. What we are looking for is that no one chooses the destiny of people for them. Accordingly, I believe that if even the current Constitution is enacted, despite the criticisms, many solutions would unfold. But unfortunately, some even don’t abide by this law. Those in power right now act despotically out of their own interests.

To achieve victory, how should the Green Movement move on from here? Wouldn’t the current process gradually degrade the movement? What must be done? What can be done?

Discontent and defiance in the nation will continue. Though people are more conservative in expressing their discontent, they are just waiting for the right moment to express themselves. This does not weaken the movement but the government. With regards to ways that the movement can proceed: first, people’s presence is the most important and critical thing for this movement or any other movement. Second, the movement cannot be after instant success; what comes easily goes just as easily.

The movement must be lively, it must reach out to people and strengthen its grass-root support. The gentlemen are presenting an untrue depiction of this movement to the public. They say this movement is against your religion and culture. They are publicizing this movement as a threat to national security and claim it will bring about a similar situation in Iran as is present in Iraq and Afghanistan. We must fight off these false publicized accusations while spreading our own messages to widest possible audience.

We are after security, peace, and calm for the country. We are loyal to this country. We are fighting dictatorship and fascism. We want to establish the rule of law. Thus evangelizing, organizing, and staying in touch with each other are important. The government is quite sensitive to these activities as it has confronted them in many occasions. This is a great testament to the effectiveness of these activities. So, despite what they might say, I don’t think the movement is diminishing,-; it is in fact growing.

What did Mehdi Karroubi think of the future in 1989 and how does that compare to the way events have been rolling out?

We thought the revolution would bring about mutual respect for every person and her/his ideas and rights. We wanted the revolution to bring about equality and respect for Islam. But that did not happen.

In those days, people were in with the government, they knew everything that was going on. That’s because we realized our legitimacy came from people’s approval. We wanted to be a role model and a leader in the world and tried hard to reach these goals. Of course some of the blame lies with us and some with others.

The fact of the matter is that in the beginning of the revolution, there were some violent struggles. Parts of the country stated independence and invaded central government’s military bases. Azarbayejan, Gonbad, Khozestan, and Kordestan were amongst those regions. The late Mr. Taleghani and Mr. Foroohar traveled to these regions to speak to the people and try to resolve the conflicts. After that, assassinations of the country’s intellectuals and leaders started: Martyrs Motahari, Beheshti, Ghazi, Tabatabaie, Mofateh, and many others.

In those day, secret shared homes were created by the armed militants and violent confrontations started taking shape. The war against Iraq started as these conflicts were still ongoing. When the presidential headquarters and political party headquarters of a country are blown up by internal anti government militants, it is obvious that the country is headed towards radicalism. In any case, they didn’t make it possible to achieve the goals that we had; we missed the chance. In those years, after the bombings, we had the worst situation in the Parliament. Government officials were under pressure by the war, internal conflicts and assassinations, and the country’s management…. These were difficult times. Those who created the internal conflicts did a great injustice to this country.

On the Israel-Palestine issue: If two countries reach an agreement,  what would be your position?

We might have an ideal position in our mind, but we should realize that Palestine belongs to Palestinians, so if they reached an agreement that they find pleasing, we should congratulate them.

Iran is facing detrimental quandaries in its foreign policy, if you were in charge what policy would you adopt regarding the following issues: the US?

I believe that,with the exception of Israel, we should have relationship with all other countries. Despite everything that has happened between Iran and United States, I think we should reestablish the relations without neglecting Iran’s dignity and independence. Unfortunately Iran-US relations have become a domestic political discussion in Iran. When one side agrees to normalizing relations , another side opposes and vice versa . It has become an internal quarrel between different streams.

Relations with China and Russia?

We have normal relations with both countries now, and I agree that we should. I travelled to both countries when I was head of the parliament numerous times in order to expand our political and economical relations. Russia is our neighbour, therefore we should maintain our relations. I should mention though that states only seek their own interests in relations with other states. Having relations with another country should be based on benefits [that we seek].

Nuclear issue?

We should become more transparent We should negotiate, we should defend our rights, but we should also make [our intention and conduct] more transparent.

The human rights file?

The human rights are those rights that belong to all people. These rights are undermined today in many countries. For example, in Palestine, these rights are completely ignored by the Israelis. In our country too, on some issues these rights are undermined. We must not abuse human rights like a political tool.

What I believe is that we cannot take human right issues very seriously for one country, and then ignore them completely for another one. One obvious example of the latter is the human rights issue in the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

If we divide the history of Islamic Republic into different periods, from Mr. Karroubi’s perspective, which period would be closest to the ideals of the Islamic Revolution and which period was the furthest from them?

Naturally every revolution is closest to its ideals at the very early state. I have said this many times. In every revolution, radical moves and abrupt reactions break out due to inexperience and immaturity. I can say this confidently: most of those who act radically now are those who acted in a radical way back then. The first decade was one of ideals. We gradually entered a different atmosphere that concluded in what we see right now. I believe the worst conditions are what we have right now.

And last question: What is your greatest wish today?

I wish for governance of people, denial of outsiders’ interference, and insiders’ despotism. I wish for health and prosperity of this nation, for the greatness of Iran, development of our country. I wish for rise of pride for Islam and enactment of its rules. I don’t believe in imposing our perspectives; I don’t mean interfering with private lives of people. What I mean by wishing enactment of rules is enactment of ethics in the society, enactment of justice, and keeping the dignity and respect of people.

The Latest from Iran (8 June): Tremors and Falsehoods

2000 GMT: The Rooftop Allahu Akbars Are Back. Claimed video of tonight in west Tehran, with residents shouting "God is Great":

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NriBVuN3og&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

NEW Iran Election Anniversary Special: The Power of the “Gradual”
NEW Iran Special Report:The Attack on Civil Society (Arseh Sevom)
Iran Analysis: The Unexpected Fight Over “Khomeini”
Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)
Iran Feature: Music and Resistance (Fathi)
The Latest from Iran (7 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting

1955 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Nourmohammadi, detained since 20 January, has been sentenced to three years in prison for "assembly and collusion against national security". His brother, reformist activist Saeed Nourmohammadi, is serving a one-year prison sentence, with five years suspended, and a 30-year ban on political activity.


1935 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Still waiting for video to surface of today's press conference by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Those present included Advar News, Jaras, Norooz, Saham News, Green Voice of Freedom, Tahavole Sabz, Kalameh, Emrooz, and Mizan.

Meanwhile, Rah-e-Sabz clarifies the latest developments on the requests to march on 12 June. The number of reformist groups seeking permits has risen from 8 to 10.  Two parties have already been rejected, while the rest --- meeting a request from the Ministry of Interior for more information --- have said the protest will "be a silent one, with no one carrying any arms. There will be no statement read out and no speech made." Demonstrators will "carry signs asking for free elections and using green as their symbol".

1920 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). The most intriguing move, however, comes from "principlist" MP Ali Motahari. Having been warned for saying that the disturbance at last Friday's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini was due in part to the President's election, Motahari said that he would welcome his removal from the party. He declared that this would prepare the ground for the establishment of an independent faction composed of moderate reformists and principlists.

1915 GMT: Parliament v. President. A number of intriguing developments in the conflict between the Majlis and the President....

BBC Persian reports that the Supreme Leader has stepped in, calling for more oversight of the work of Parliament but also seeking more collaboration between the Majlis and Ahmadinejad.

A number of MPs have criticised Ahmadinejad's latest power play. Farhad Tajari, deputy chief of the Majlis legal commission, condemned the President’s letter to the Guardian Council questioning the legitimacy of a number of Parliament's bills, and Seyed Reza Akrami maintained that only the Guardian Council can declare Parliamentary measures illegal. Abbas Rejai, the head of Parliament’s agricultural commission, said that as the Guardian Council has approved all legislation in his area, no one can question its validity.

The Parliament also blamed the office of the President for releasing Ahmadinejad's letter, which bore a confidential stamp, with “all its blatant legal equivocations”.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kouhyar Goudarzi, member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, has been sentenced to one year in prison.

1740 GMT: Ahmadinejad "All OK. Nothing to See. Move Along." Amidst his rhetoric about the nuclear issue and Israel, President Ahmadinejad did take time today in Turkey to make a passing comment on his own country.

So let it be noted --- because all media hell is going to break loose tomorrow when the UN Security Council adopts a sanctions resolution and the Iranian Government responds, three days ahead of the election anniversary, with defiance and its honourable defence of the country's sovereignty against foreigners --- that Ahmadinejad said:

The Islamic Republic is one of the most stable countries of the world because its foundations are set in the hearts of every single Iranian....People hold the elections, supervise it and participate in it.

1625 GMT: The Complexities Within. Dissected News offers an interesting overview of the tensions not only within the Green Movement but also within the Iranian establishment.

1610 GMT: Jailing the Journalists. Reporters Without Borders posts a lengthy summary of the represssion of journalists in Iran. Some basic statistics:

* At least 170 journalists and bloggers, including 32 women, have been arrested in the past year.

*22 of them have sentenced to jail terms totalling 135 years.

*85 journalists are awaiting trial or sentencing.

* More than 100 journalists have been forced to flee the country.

*23 newspapers have been shut down and thousands of web pages have been blocked.

*With 37 journalists and bloggers currently held, Iran is one of the world’s four biggest prisons for the media, alongside Cuba, Eritrea and North Korea.

1605 GMT: In the Category of Totally Unexpected News. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, is complaining that the Ministry of Interior is stalling over requests for permits to demonstrate on 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

The Ministry has turned down two applications from reformist parties but has asked six other groups for more information.

1345 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Behzad Bagheri was arrested on Saturday in Isfahan.

1315 GMT: From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi held a joint press conference today on the eve of one year anniversary of rigged presidential election (June 12) and answered to the questions of reporters from all over the world. Details of this press conference as well as the video of it will be published soon.

1300 GMT: I have posted an analysis, for the anniversary of Iran's election, assessing the significance of events that have happened and events to come: "The Power of the Gradual".

The decision to post the piece, which is a draft introduction to a new book, was spurred in part because of my frustration and sorrow at a set of high-profile analyses in Foreign Policy magazine which I think misrepresent the dynamic of post-election developments, especially with respect to information in and out of Iran.

In that context, I have just noted two other, very different reflections. Human rights activist Ahmad Batebi gives a lengthy interview in which he assesses, "People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge & Information". And Kathy Riordan interviews an activist, "Michi", on the influence of social media in this post-election crisis: "People in many countries outside Iran have established bonds with the Iranian people. Stereotypes and misunderstandings have been stripped away."

1215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports have come in that journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been sentenced to one year in prison and has banned for 30 years from reporting. Her husband, journalist Bahman Amoui, is already serving a five-year sentence in Evin Prison.

1010 GMT: American Detainees. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has said Tehran has no plans to swap three Americans jailed last summer in Iran on spying charges for Iranians held in the Unites States.

The website Free the Hikers offers the latest on the detainees, arrested after walking --- inadvertently, they claim --- across the Iraq-Iran border.

0940 GMT: Evading the Attacks. Writing in The New York Times, Jo Becker illustrates how the state-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines evades sanctions through the re-flagging and renaming of ships:

Of the 123 Irisl ships listed [by the US Government], only 46 are still clearly owned by Irisl or its United States-listed subsidiaries, according to an analysis of data from IHS Fairplay, formerly Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay, based in Britain, which issues large merchant vessels their unique identifying numbers and tracks them over their lifetime. Four more were scuttled.

The rest — 73 — are now on record as owned and operated by companies that do not appear on the blacklist. The companies are located far from Iran, in places like Malta, Hong Kong, Cyprus, Germany and the Isle of Man. In all but 10 instances, however, records and interviews established definitive links between the ships’ new registered owners and Irisl.

0725 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The website 12june.org is now listing 68 cities planning events on 12 June for the anniversary of the Presidential election.

0654 GMT: Video of Day. Short and to the point --- "22 Khordaad" (12 June) is inscribed on a railing:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIugT-rfCIA[/youtube]

0650 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is in Turkey, putting the emphasis on foreign affairs. He has told a crowd in Istanbul that last week's raid on the Freedom Flotilla was the "death knell" for the "Zionist regime". He also said the recent Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on Tehran's uranium enrichment is the last chance for an agreement on the issue.

0645 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the leader of Friday Prayers in Kashan has explained that televising women pariticipating in sports is forbidden.

0635 GMT: The Khomeini Fall-Out. Ayatollah Dastgheib, condemning the attack on Hassan Khomeini, asserts that the "only way out" out of the current predicament is the return of Mir Hossein Mousavi to the political scene with the assurance that he will not be threatened.

0555 GMT: We begin the morning with a special report from a new NGO, Arseh Sevom (Third Sphere), "Attacks on Civil Society in Iran, 2005-2010".

Meanwhile, in the current civil society, there are more signs of nervousness as the regime is still trying to deal with the aftermath of the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini, that went wrong last Friday and the uncertainty of the election's anniversary (22 Khordaad/12 June) approaches:

A New Anti-Government Coalition?

A sharp poke at Ahmadinejad, in the guise of analysis from Khabar Online, the website connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani: it claims that even a significant number of "hardliners" have joined the reformists in opposition

The analysis projects that "moderate reformists" have a small chance to gain influence within two or three years and advises that hardliners should put themselves in four groups to discuss change, including "idealists", "pragmatists", and those taking the Government line.

Parliament v. President

The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has declared that the Parliament should help the judiciary to correct and update laws.

Hmm.... Could Sadegh be taking sides in the evolving dispute between his brother Ali and President Ahmadinejad? After all, it is Ali Larijani and other MPs who are complaining that the Government is implementing "incorrect" measures.

There's the prospect of more pressure on the President, with the claim that the results of an investigation into undocumented spending during Ahmadinejad's Government will be published soon.

"Dorough Online" (Lie Online)

That is new name given to Iran's media by Green Voice of Freedom, which is claiming a "new record" of at least three big lies per day handed down to the Iranian people. Unsurprisingly, Green Voice is offering examples from the ongoing presentation of last Friday's shout-down of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini.

More Dorough....

The "hard-line" Kayhan, according to the Green site Rah-e-Sabz, is betraying its nervousness with a series of allegations, inventing foreign supporters, mysterious editors, and a headquarters in London for the opposition publication.

Political Prisoner Watch

Fereshteh Ghazi's posts an interview with the father of Amir Javadifar, who died in detention after he was arrested on 9 July. As Iran holds another court session, ostensibly to punish those who carried out abuses at Kahrizak Prison, Javadifar's father says, "We demand those who gave the orders at Kahrizak to be sentenced."

Iran Analysis: One Year After the Election (Shafaee)

Masoud Shafaee writes for The Guardian of London:

At the beginning of June last year, a thaw in Iranian-American relations looked increasingly likely. President Obama had been inaugurated less than five months earlier, promising the leaders of the Islamic Republic that America would "extend" its hand if the Iranians were willing to "unclench" their fists. Having been vilified as part of an "axis of evil" by the Bush administration, the Iranian leadership suddenly faced a harder time painting the United States, with its charismatic new president and his middle name of Hussein, as "the Great Satan". Obama even recognised Iran's right to enrich uranium, something the previous administration had refused to do.

In Iran, a similar political realignment was under way. The country not only faced staggering inflation and unemployment, but had had three sets of UN Security Council sanctions imposed on it since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office. With two-thirds of its population under the age of 30 and pressing for more social freedoms, the incumbent president was by no means a popular candidate heading into the 2009 election.



In the final weeks of the campaign, the progressive-minded youth mobilised en masse to ensure that he would not be re-elected. As Mir Hossein Mousavi, the main reform candidate and eventual figurehead of the Green movement, put it just before election day, the atmosphere in the country was "similar to the first days after … the revolution".

But Mousavi was by no means a foe of the establishment either. Having served as prime minister for almost the whole of the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic's founding father, Mousavi had the respect of many in the establishment. In fact, he was one of only four candidates not disqualified from running for president in 2009 by the Guardian Council, the regime's constitutional vetting body. Even at present, Mousavi stresses the importance of staying true to Khomeini's vision and within the constitution's framework.

Which is what made the rigging of last year's election so remarkable. For the Islamic Republic, Mousavi was the right man at the right time: a former revolutionary suited to steering Iran through rapprochement with a remarkably different White House. With respect to Iran's nuclear programme, the core issue guiding its foreign policy, he openly statedthat he would not compromise on the country's inalienable rights. President Obama even posited just five days after the contested election that policy differences between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad "may not be as great as [had] been advertised".

Policy differences aside, the Islamic Republic's image would have greatly benefited from a Mousavi presidency. In a region dominated by authoritarian Arab states, Iran's theocracy has always been the exception. What's more, the democratic elements of the Islamic Republic's constitution – however tattered they may now be – have been a source of the regime's authority. The election of a socially progressive reformist over a far-right incumbent would have done much for its perceived legitimacy. Perhaps this is why the vote was so lopsidedly fixed.

Driven by motives of political survival, a fringe "New Right" ultimately took Iran hostage. Not wanting to relinquish power through its loss at the polls, the current administration has not only weakened the regime, but in the face of an enduring and growing opposition, has perhaps hastened its demise.

On the nuclear front, Iran is facing a fourth set of Security Council sanctions –the first since Obama took office. The uranium-for-fuel deal that the White House was proposing back in February is now being rebuffed after Iran agreed to come to the table following Turkish and Brazilian mediation. And with the hastily rigged election, the Islamic Republic has suffered considerable harm to its image and to its clout. Ahmadinejad's second term was widely seen as illegitimate from the start, and the regime chose not only to reaffirm the election results but to severely repress the opposition. Whatever "democratic" lustre the Islamic republic once had has surely now been irreparably tarnished.

More consequentially, perhaps, the regime has lost its religious standing in the eyes of countless Muslims. In a region with an increasing number of devout followers – be they Sunni or Shia – it was always the Islamic component of the "Islamic republic" that earned Iran admiration outside its borders. A year after the election, in the face of overwhelming evidence of state-sanctioned murder, torture and even rape, the regime's moral authority is in shreds. Several of Iran's grand ayatollahs have even publicly blasted the government during the last year. As the late dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri, the former heir apparent to Khomeini, put it: "This regime is neither Islamic nor a republic."

Today, many are speculating about the death of the Green movement. Following a brutal crackdown, the massive protests seen in June tapered off, before being definitively suppressed on the Islamic Republic's 31st anniversary in February. Yet while the streets may now be emptier, the Green movement is far from finished. As the Iranian saying goes, "There is fire under the ash."

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