Iran Eyewitness: An "Army of Strollers" and Allah-o-Akbar on 12 June (Tehran Bureau)

"A Contributor in Tehran" writes for Tehran Bureau:

"The most stable and democratic country in the world." Thus Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the man who last year was "reelected" (many say "selected") as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, described his nation at a recent press conference in Istanbul. Ahmadinejad, of course, is hardly renowned for well-considered, precise, statesmanlike observations. In fact, he is notorious for quite the opposite: making off-the-cuff statements whose substance bears little relation to reality. Yet the depiction of Iran in such terms days before the 12 June anniversary of the vehemently disputed presidential election was an extraordinary distortion of the truth, even by Mr. Ahmadinejad's loose standards. The truth of his statement, needless to say, was tested on the anniversary.

As expected, "the most stable and democratic" government on earth failed miserably. It denied permission to the opposition to hold a simple peaceful rally in order to commemorate last year's election --- even though, according to the Iranian Constitution, such gatherings do not require government approval to begin with. For weeks, security and other officials had warned that the regime would not tolerate any protest rally on June 12. The Interior Ministry, raising some ludicrous technical excuses, refused the permit, as it had done similarly on numerous occasions in the past.



By contrast, government-sanctioned rallies and ceremonial events, such as the one that took place on 4 June  --- the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic -- enjoy the regime's full support and sponsorship. On that occasion, hundreds of thousands, many of them members of the Basij militia, were mobilized throughout the country to travel, at government expense, to Tehran to attend the commemoration and listen to the Friday Prayer sermon delivered by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, Khomeini's successor as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. This particular event was to be a showcase for the power and "popularity" of the regime in advance of 12 June. The initial plan was thus to assemble about two million people from throughout Iran for the event. By independent accounts, the regime fell far short of its goal.

Just a couple of days prior to the election anniversary, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, two of Ahmadinejad's rivals in last year's election and the de facto leaders of the Green Movement, the popular reform movement that emerged following the rigged vote, announced that because of their concern for people's safety they would cancel the rally they had planned. They asked their supporters to pursue their struggle for change through means less risky than participation in a public protest that the government was determined to violently suppress.

Given that most opposition political figures and activists have been imprisoned or rendered inactive over the past year, and that many political parties and civil society organizations have been banned, there are few avenues available to those opposing the regime to communicate with one another and organize en masse. The few Reformist newspapers face heavy censorship and are under constant threat of closure if they cross the government's ambiguous "red lines." Foreign news and analysis broadcasts, like the popular Persian services of the BBC and VOA, are routinely jammed -- especially when an important day, such as 12 June, approaches. The Internet is often strangled and access to most sites with uncensored information is systematically denied through a pervasive filtering system (though many have by now learned how to circumvent it). In short, the regime exerts its full power to deny people the means and even the hope of organizing peaceful protests, short of risking their livelihoods and their very lives.

Nonetheless, the message somehow spread that a silent protest would be held in Tehran from 4 to 8 p.m. on June 12, a Saturday. It was understood that Mousavi and Karroubi, as responsible leaders, could not ask their supporters to jeopardize their lives by attending a formally declared rally. Yet people concluded that they could make their presence felt and in the process expose the regime's true anti-democratic nature, its illegitimacy, and the extent of its fear by simply "strolling" peacefully and silently from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi (Freedom) Square. The route, around ten kilometers long, was chosen in part because along it lies Ferdowsi Square and Enghelab Square, where two major universities are located.

Read rest of article....

The Latest from Iran (20 June): Remembering the Protests and the Dead

2000 GMT: Soroush and Khamenei. The website of Abdulkarim Soroush, one of Iran's most prominent intellectuals --- now living in exile --- has published the English translation of Soroush's letter to the Supreme Leader, "Flagging Oratory (and Mind?)".

1950 GMT: Limiting the Remembrance. Pictures and video show a heavy security presence in Tehran's Vanak Square:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6KAX0Oj5oo[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Takes on the Supreme Leader (20 June)
NEW Iran Special: Legal Analysis of Post-Election Violations of Rights (Shadi Sadr)
NEW Iran Video, One Year On: The “Neda” Documentaries
Iran: Working Together? The Women’s Movement & The Greens (Kakaee)
Iran Analysis: Why the 2009 Election is Not Legitimate (Ansari)
The Latest from Iran (19 June): How Does Mahmoud Respond?

1645 GMT: The Karroubi Statement. We've posted lengthy extracts in a separate entry --- with its apparent challenge to the powers of the Supreme Leader, is this a significant step forward for the cleric?

1620 GMT: The Threat to the Reformists. The Islamic Iran Participation Front, responding to the declaration of the Tehran Prosecutor General that the party would be banned and might be broken up, said  Abbas Jafari Doulatabi's remarks were "private and without legal value".

1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has reportedly declared that he would like to retire, but were he to step down from positions such as head of the Expediency Council, there would be "grave political consequences".

1445 GMT: Today's Hijab Discussion. Member of Parliament Reza Akrami has declared that the President "should ask himself why he protests" against enforcement of the law on hijab.

Ahmadinejad spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr did a bit of "don't look at us", saying that the Government is not responsible for the crackdown on "bad hijab" because the security forces are not controlled by the Minister of the Interior.

1250 GMT: One Year Ago. Setareh Sabety reminds us of the words she posted, on the morning of 25 Khordaad (20 June) 2009:

I pray, even though an atheist, I pray that today this all important day, courage and justice is triumphant and that there will be no blood shed. I pray that no mother has to hear bad news, no woman is martyred and no young man beaten or arrested. I pray that these people whom I love, who are risking their lives with incredible courage for me and you, are not harmed and that their silent, persistent message of the basic need for freedom and democracy wins the day.

1245 GMT: The Reformist Challenge. The message from member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh to the Government is  direct and to the point: "Stop these radical behaviours."

1200 GMT: Cyber-Shutdown. Parleman News reports Persianblog, Iranicloob, and Blogfa have now been filtered.

1155 GMT: We've posted a special feature, Shadi Sadr's legal analysis of the post-election violation of rights by Iranian authorities.

1055 GMT: Documenting "Neda". Iranian state television has broadcast the "real" story of the killing of Neda Agha Soltan, "Crossroades". It features Abbas Javid Kargar, the Basij militiaman accused of the murder, who claims he was unarmed on that day and played no role in her death.

So who did it? The documentary implies that the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) was responsible.

Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save Neda's life, has posted his response to the documentary's claims.

And we've re-posted two other documentaries on "Neda" and post-election events, the BBC/PBS/Tehran Bureau production, "An Iranian Martyr", and HBO's "For Neda".

1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that activists and students have been detained in Hormozogan Province.

RAHANA reports that eight students have been arrested in Shiraz on charges of "propaganda against the Prophet".

0925 GMT: Political Prisoners and the Labour Front.

The International Transport Workers Federation has denounced the further arrests of members of Sandikaye Kargarane Sherkate Vahed, the Tehran bus workers’ union in Iran.

Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahbi were arrested in June by Iranian security forces and are being held at an unknown location. They join Mansour Osanloo and Ebrahim Madadi, both in prison since 2007, in detention.

In a letter to President Ahmadinejad, ITWF General Secretary David Cockroft said: “We once again reiterate that the carrying out of normal trade union duties is not an arrestable offence and should never be the grounds for the detention of Saeed Torabian, of Mansour Osanloo, or anyone else. We therefore request that you once again intervene in this process, remedy this situation, and also assure the good health and safety of Mansour Osanloo, who remains unjustly imprisoned.”

Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that workers at the Zhaveh reservoir dam in the Kurdish Kamyaran region have gone on strike over non-payment of seven months of back wages, workers yearly bonuses, overtime wages, and dues.

0810 GMT: The Clerics Fight Back? Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has said that the distance between religion and revolutionary principles is the reason for the weakness of Iran's judiciary.

The more intriguing report, however, is in Rah-e-Sabz. The website claims that Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and Hassan Khomeini have all been on the telephone with Grand Ayatollah Sanei: these attacks were not a rebellion of unorganised people but a planned assault.

0800 GMT: The Battle Within (cont.). The latest jab of Keyhan, the "hard-line" newspaper, at the Government is a query about Ahmadinejad's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: why did he, in one of his many offices, give money to a rich artist?

0720 GMT: The Battle Within. The opposition's commemorations and the execution of "terrorists" has not entirely taken the headline heat off the President. Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, has told Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he cannot interfere in the affairs of other regime institutions.

0630 GMT: Remembering 25 Khordaad. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement reflecting on the protests of 20 June 2009:

"Today the Green Movement owes its place to the resistance of women, who along with their spouses and children, and as a group of leaders on the front lines have had a unique presence. The movement should realize that achieving freedom and democracy without the presence of noble women and without considering and implementation of the demands to eliminate discrimination and violence that women have always asked will not be possible.”

0625 GMT: Karroubi on the Vote and the Supreme Leader. Saham News, the website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published the cleric's  latest statement. Karroubi opens:

One year after the 10th Presidential election, considering what they did with your votes and the blood that was shed for regaining your rights, once again firmly and honestly, I declare that I am standing on my promise with you to the end of this path and I am ready to debate with anyone who would represent the ruling powers.
The vote that they stole from you and the right that was brutally denied from you is a shame that cannot be covered in anyway. Such that after one year despite all the pressure and intimidations not only your rightful demands have not been forgotten but also this seek for change has penetrated in various layers of the society based on an extensive social network and this social extent is not something that can be eliminated by repressions, intimidations, arrests and staged trials.

This declaration of defiance from 12 June 2009 to the present is followed by thoughts about the recent pro-regime attacks on senior clerics, used by Karroubi to consider "the powers of the Supreme Leader". In other words --- if I'm reading this right --- if Ayatollah Khameni is the ultimate defender of the Islamic Republic, why is he not defending its leading religious figures and its people?

0600 GMT: Today is likely to be dominated by remembrance of last year's mass demonstration, eight days after the Presidential election and a day after the Supreme Leader tried to close off debate, and those who died.

For many, Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-0ld woman killed by a Basij militia gunshot, became the symbol of tragedy and hope, and outside Iran, her name remains a beacon. (The #4Neda hashtag may be one of the most prominent on Twitter today.)

Inside Iran, however, there will be memorials for all those killed on 20 June and in the days after the election. It is reported that four Tehran universities are holding services, and there is chatter of events across the country.

The Iranian Government, however, has made a late bid to take over the headlines by adding another death: this morning it executed Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent Jundullah organisation.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi0IMc1uXMY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (18 June): Hardliners Criticise Ahmadinejad

1510 GMT: Twitter and Civil Rights. We have posted a response to the latest attempt to set straight the relationship between social media and the post-election political situation in Iran.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ebrahim Rashidi, who disappeared on Monday, has reportedly called his family from Ardebil's intelligence detention centre.

NEW Iran Request: Nonsense about “Twitter Revolution”. Please Stop.
NEW Iran Analysis: How Europe Can Help (Mamedov)
NEW Iran Document: The Tajzadeh Criticism and The Reformist Way Forward (Sahimi)
Iran Snapshot: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Master of Irony
Iran Overview: Striking Poses from Sanctions to Cyber-War to “Terrorism”
Latest from Iran (17 June): Clearing Away the Smoke

Journalist Hassan Etemadi has been given a two-year sentence, and journalist Shahin Zeynali has been handed a term of two years and 91 days.

The former mayor of Ghasr-e Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been detained and transferred to a centre in Kermanshah. No reason for his arrest has been given.

1330 GMT: Through the Looking Glass on the Hijab. Reviewing today's Tehran Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, I think we are now caught up in a contortion of politics. Iran has suddenly become a place where defenders of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad praise him for "a relatively liberal government approach" and turn their fire upon the "hardliners", rather than the opposition.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tZ2a0_3sNw&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

For the headline from Jannati's speech today, in contrast to his previous appearances, is not the threat of heavy punishment upon the opposition but his criticism of Ahmadinejad for raising the "cumbersome" issue of the "morality police" and their efforts to enforce "good behaviour" such as the wearing of the hijab.

Linking those who acted or dressed inappropriately to "drug traffickers" and "terrorists", Jannati said that women who defied the rules on proper clothing were "worse than poison". No one (he means you, Mahmoud) had "the right to tie the hands" of those enforcing the law.

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Hijab Problem. It seems the President has got himself in a political tangle over his complaint about "morality police" cracking down on supposed social transgressions, including "bad hijab".

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that Ahmadinejad's directives are the basis for his officials' actions.

High-profile member of Parlaiment Ali Motahari has declared that the President has been adversely influenced by his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Mashhad's Friday Prayer leader, has asserted, "Unfortunately Ahmadinejad does not give the right attention to implementing religious rules."

Member of Parliament Mohammad Taghi Rahbar says he is ready to discuss the issue with Ahamadinejad on television.

0950 GMT: Today's Khabar Kick on the Government's Shins. Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, has suggested that Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini might have to resign because he wants to complete a Ph.D. dissertation.

The website, as reported by Peyke Iran, also points to 11 "suspicious" comments by the President in the last 76 days.

0945 GMT: Take Your Resolution and Stick It. Iran's National Security Council has issued a strongly-worded denunciation of the UN Security Council sanctions resolution on Tehran's nuclear programme:

Contrary to all expectations, the resolution has focused on Iran's nuclear program, without so much as a word about the Israeli regime's criminal activities and its attack on the Freedom Flotilla convoy carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip only 10 days ago.

Also, the resolution brazenly ignores the 11 proposals put forward by Iran during Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which have been welcomed by world countries.

The council takes issue with the adoption of the resolution, particularly since it came despite constructive cooperation and the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear material for the 22nd consecutive time....

"This clearly shows that Washington's commitment to Israeli security will never allow UN Security Council to fulfill its obligations with regards to securing the safety and the rights of different nations....

The Islamic Republic of Iran will respond fittingly to any attempt to violate the legal and legitimate rights of the Iranian nation," the statement added.

0845 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Eldar Mamedov, "Iran: How Europe Can Help".

0840 GMT: Economy Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has complained that people are still not informed about the Government's subsidy reduction plan.

0805 GMT: A Boast (and an Admission?). Tehran police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, trying to wash away criticism of last year's attack on Tehran University's dormitories, has said, "We were prepared for the elections one week in advance." The dorm incidents were predictable because Communists and neo-Marxists following Mehdi Karroubi had come onto the streets.

Not sure if Ahmadi-Moghaddam realises this, but his statement gives indirect support to allegations of a manipulated election --- the security forces were preparing for violence because they knew in advance that there might be anger over an "adjusted" vote. (More on this on Saturday....)

Meanwhile, member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has kept up his pressure on the Government, saying that the Majlis never completed a full report --- despite its promises --- on the dormitory attacks: "Only parts of it exist and are in our minds."

0800 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Some more pressure on the regime: Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the Friday Prayer leader of Kashan, has said, "If attacks on marja in Qom become normal, the future is not predictable."  Hojatolelsam Mehdi Tabatabai asserts, "God will not forgive those who insulted the 14 Khordad [4 June] ceremony."

0645 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics --- An Apology? Hmm, wondering if this might be an important signal....

In a wide-ranging interview on Parleman News, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani makes the statement that "whoever does not respect the marja (senior clerics)... shows his worthlessness". Larijani asserts that the marja "are the pillars of nezam", the Iranian system, and "the Supreme Leader up to the chiefs of Iran's forces see them as such".

An EA correspondent gets to the point with the question, "Is this an indirect apology from Ayatollah Khamenei?"

0640 GMT: The Economic Squeeze. Reuters publishes a summary of foreign companies who have pulled back from operations inside Iran and those who continue to do business.

0550 GMT: A Victory in Britain. It is reported that actress and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights activist Kiana Firouz has been granted "leave to remain"' in the UK, removing the threat of deportation to Iran.

Firouz had been refused asylum on two previous occasions, prompting a campaign to prevent her return to Tehran.

0535 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. It is reported that the website of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been filtered.

Kalemeh publishes a letter from Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the Grand Ayatollah, to senior clerics in Qom. Montazeri describes Sunday's attack on the Grand Ayatollah's home and offices and asks for a denunciation of the assault.

0515 GMT: Today's white noise starts out of Washington rather than Tehran, as the Obama Administration --- trying to hold back the tide of Congressional action on Iran --- plays up rhetorically to the legislators.

Speaking at a hearing on Thursday, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave the rationale for the adjusted approach of the White House to US missile defence:

One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles, or a handful.

"It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.

An editorial aside:I wonder if and when the Administration will ever realise that this appeasement --- not of Iran but of Congress --- will never free up its approach towards Tehran but will limit and even undermine any hope of crafting a thoughtful policy towards the Iranian situation.

Meanwhile, getting back to significant developments, we catch up with this week's potentially important analysis by reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh. A Deputy Interior Minister in the Khatami Government and post-election detainee, Tajzadeh has published a lengthy consideration of today's Iran through a review of the past, apologising for the reformists' role in the detention and execution of political prisoners in the 1980s.

We've posted extracts from the Tajzadeh analysis, accompanied by interpretation for Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau.

Iran Document: The Tajzadeh Criticism and The Reformist Way Forward (Sahimi)

Earlier this week, in a lengthy analysis posted on Kalemeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh --- Deputy Interior Minister in the Khatami Government, leading member of the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, and post-election detainee --- evaluated the issues facing Iran today. Equally important, he took a step back to the 1980s, criticising the reformists' position and apologising for the treatment and execution of political prisoners.



As Iranian activists debate and pursue the issues of civil rights and how they will work together to achieve them, Tajzadeh's statement is being seen by some as a necessary step, acknowledging that the campaigns of the present must not ignore but rather learn from the errors of the past.

A full translation in English of Tajzadeh's analysis is not yet available but, writing for Tehran Bureau, Muhammad Sahimi interprets lengthy extracts of "Part 1" with background and his interpretation:

Reformist Sayyed Mostafa Tajzadeh has written a very important analysis of the current state of affairs, which was posted on Mir Hossein Mousavi's website, Kalame. In this piece, Tajzadeh addresses vital issues facing the nation. Most importantly, in my opinion, he has critically re-evaluated the reformists' record and the role that they have played in the creation of the current situation in Iran. He criticizes the reformists' position on repression in the early 1980s and the execution of thousands of political prisoners.



In that era, the present reformists were known as the followers of Imam's line and were -- and still are -- mostly Islamic leftists. 'Imam' refers to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the present reformists were his ardent supporters; many still profess to be loyal to many of the Ayatollah's principles. What follows is a brief profile and the first half of Tajzadeh's analysis that, in my opinion, represents an important historical document.

Background

Sayyed Mostafa Tajzadeh was born in Tehran in 1956. After graduating from high school, he moved to the United States in 1975, where he lived for almost three years and studied political science. He was active in the Muslim Students Association, a political group run by university students active against Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. When the 1979 Revolution started gaining momentum in 1978, Tajzadeh returned to Iran, where together with Hasan Vaezi, Homayoun Khosravi, and Sayyed Mahmoud Yasini, he founded the Towhidi-ye Khalgh group, which agitated against the Shah. After the Revolution, Tajzadeh's group merged with six other Islamic groups to form the Organization of Islamic Revolution Mojahedin (OIRM) [not to be confused with the Mojahedin-e Khalgh Organization (MKO)]. OIRM is now one the top reformist groups in Iran.

Tajzadeh was active in the Islamic Revolution Committees and in the OIRM. His political career began in May 1982, when he joined the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance (Ershad). There, he worked closely with former president Mohammad Khatami, who was head of Ershad in the Mousavi government, and similarly with the administration of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani during its first term. Eventually, Tajzadeh was promoted as Khatami's chief deputy at the Ministry. Under pressure from right-wing reactionaries, Khatami resigned from the Ministry in 1992, and Tajzadeh left with him. After Khatami was elected the President in 1997, he appointed Tajzadeh as Deputy Interior Minister for Security and Political Affairs, a post second only to Abdollah Nouri's, who was the Minister and a progressive cleric.

The elections for the 6th Majles were held in late February 2000 and Tajzadeh was in charge. The Guardian Council (GC) disqualified relatively few candidates, and as a result, the elections were very competitive. The reformists swept up all 30 seats for the Tehran district, which was a huge upset for the GC and the conservatives. Thus, the GC began claiming that there had been voting irregularities at several polling stations. First, they ordered a recount, and then annulled, without presenting any evidence, about 700,000 of the votes cast in Tehran. That started a fierce struggle between Tajzadeh and the GC.

The main goal of the GC was to get Rafsanjani and Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel elected as Tehran's deputies. At that time, Rafsanjani had been under fierce attack by reformist journalists and was thus in the conservative camp. Haddad Adel's daughter is married to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's son. Another goal of the GC was to prevent Dr. Ali Reza Rajaei, a journalist close to the Nationalist-Religious Coalition, from getting elected.

Tajzadeh insisted that no irregularities had taken place, and declared that the elections were the "cleanest and freest elections" in the history of the Islamic Republic, which was true. When it became clear that Tajzadeh would not back down, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the GC to accept the people's verdict. The GC had achieved its goals, though. Dr. Rajaei was prevented from getting elected, and in his place Haddad Adel got elected. Rafsanjani, though ranked 20th in Tehran in terms of the votes that he had received, resigned his position and never joined the 6th Majles.

The GC took Tajzadeh to court, and in return, Tajzadeh filed a lawsuit against Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the powerful reactionary cleric and secretary-general of the GC, accusing him of trying to rig the elections. His lawsuit against Jannati never went to trial -- Jannati is too powerful to be tried! But Tajzadeh himself was put on trial in March 2001. He repeatedly clashed with the judge, Naser Daghighi, and said, "Some people are angry about the way the people voted last year." The court "convicted" Tajzadeh and gave him a suspended one-year term, and barred him from all government employment for three years, hoping that he would go away. Then in 2004, once the three-year period was over, Khatami appointed Tajzadeh as his senior adviser, a post that he held until August 2005, when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first term began.

Right after the rigged presidential election of June 2009, Tajzadeh was arrested by the security forces and spent months in solitary confinement. He is the only one who has been temporarily released without bail, refusing to put up any bail. He underwent a surgery for severe back problems.

He is married to Fakhrossadat Mohtashamipour, a notable political figure in her own right, who is active in defending women's rights, and has been an outspoken critic of the hardliners over the past year. They have two daughters, Arefeh and Fatemeh. Tajzadeh is also a doctoral student in political science at the University of Tehran; he has been unable to finish his studies.

Throughout his career, Tajzadeh has always been a straight shooter: blunt, honest, plainspoken and to the point. He has an impeccable record as an uncorrupted official who has held senior positions in the political establishment, and has been a progressive reformist.

Statement

Father, Monther, We have been Accused Again

Tazjadeh begins his analysis by saying that his imprisonment provided an opportunity for him to debate with his hard-line interrogators. During this process, But, he quickly realized the extent to which a huge gap existed between his thinking and that of his interrogators. He then compares the political system that the hardliners have in mind with what he favors [in the following text, the comparison is made in the same order]:

A political systems that sees its power in terms of forcing people to confess [under pressure] and forcing them to "repent" vs. one that sees it in terms of free debates and discussions in the press.A political system that considers any opposition or criticisms a conspiracy [to overthrow it] vs. one that corrects its course of action due to the criticisms by the opposition.

A political system that denies the citizens some of their most elementary rights, such as the right to freely travel and bars them from traveling abroad [with the fear that the opposition would speak against it], and creates all sorts of limitations for practically everyone but its own supporters vs. one that encourages people's free choices both in society and elections.

A political system in which the military is the most powerful center of power and sees the entire country as a huge military barrack in which no one should dare say "why and how" vs. one in which people own the nation and the barracks mirror what is going in the country.

A political system in which if we consider the characters, education, and intelligence of the political prisoners, we reach the conclusion that they are the best and cream of the crop of the nation vs. one in which the same people either lead the nation by being the leaders of the government, or are people's representatives in the parliament and in the civil society have the utmost [political and personal] security.

A political system that is terrified by peaceful marches of the citizens and their shouts of "Allah-o Akbar [God is great]" on the roofs of their homes [that has become a way of protesting the hardliners over the past year] vs. one that considers the protest marches as the citizens' right and a basis for improving and strengthening the political system.

A political system in which political groups and parties cannot be active within the framework of the Constitution, even during peace time and when the country is [in] stable [condition], and when the condition [demanded] for the release of their leaders and members from jail and illegal detentions is to put an end to all political activities vs. one that ruled the nation during the first decade after the revolution, when there was war [with Iraq], but the leaders of the political groups were never arrested.

A political system in which the independence of the judiciary means only ignoring people's demands and rights, and during its show trials "convict" the best of the nation and deny their rights vs. one in which the judges are truly independent of the ruling elite, and irrespective of the pressures of the security, intelligence and military groups, act only according to the law.

A political system in which the educated youth want to leave the country from the time that they are in high school; one in which its [annual] book exhibition reminds us of the inquisition era, and one in which its artists' solitary jail cells are smaller than the rooms that they need to keep their international awards vs. the one that the Imam [Ayatollah Khomeini] promised the people in Paris [in the fall of 1978].

A political system that is ranked No. 1 for inflation and corruption and is last in terms of economic growth; one in which nearly half of its people live below the poverty line; its private sector is considered [by the hardliners] as the government's competitors and even enemy, with its main goal being weakening of the sector; one in which its investor are more willing to invest in foreign countries [than in Iran]; and where unregulated and undisciplined imports have broken the back of domestic production, with the strategy of the government being "making all of Iran needing the aid committees [that provide help to poor people]." Can such a system be a model of successful management [of a nation] in the region?

A political system that condemns dictatorship, the veto powers [in the United Nations Security Council], and the control of the international media by a few, and labels the United States as the symbol of [applying] double standards [to its foes and allies] lacks the moral right to use the same against its own citizens.

A political system in which "happiness has been lost" [paraphrasing the poet Shafiei Kadkani] and ranks No. 1 in the world for shutting down its mass media and jailing its journalists, and its process of vetting candidates for election is worse than even those of Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Palestine, cannot claim to be the liberator of the same nations and a model for all Muslims.

In the political system that I favor the religious seminaries are independent [of the Supreme Leader]; the universities are not military barracks; distinguished and independent-minded academics are not forced into retirement or fired; [my political system] does not rank the university students for their political activities; does not expel them en masse; mixing of female and male students in universities is not a problem for its officials, and does not threaten the students that if they want good grades, they must follow the orders of the university administrators.

In the political system that I favor the officials think about finding ways to address unemployment, depression, hopelessness and addiction of the youth, not about trying to decide on the makeup and clothes of women, while at the same time making claims about confronting social and cultural corruption, allowing the foreign satellite TV programs without any problem, but closing [political] websites. In my political system lying is not a way of governance.

In my political system -- one that rose as a result of the glorious Revolution [of 1979] -- the Kahrizak [detention center] is a disgrace, not revealing its existence; the Constitution is not a tool to repress people, but [a document] that represents the result of the martyrs' blood and people's vote and a document for [guaranteeing] people's rights and freedom; implementing Article 27 [which allows for peaceful assembly] and other human rights of the people for forming political parties, a free press, banning torture, and not issuing a death sentence with due process -- [the principles] that guarantee the country's independence and territorial integrity, and protects national interests.

My political system does not attack the universities' dormitories every ten years [in 1999 and 2009]. It is a political system founded by the leader of the Revolution [Ayatollah Khomeini] whose motto was "the criterion [for acceptance of leaders] is people's vote," and defended the right of every generation to decide its own fate. In this political system, the ethnic minorities' cultures and traditions are not considered a threat to national unity.

From Velvet Revolution to Disturbing the Traffic

Tajzadeh then says that he and his comrades did not want to overthrow the system, and did not break the law. Thus, after the interrogations began, the interrogators could not defend a "one voice society," or calling their supporters "God's political parties" but those of the opposition "Satan's." They were forced to admit that they support a multi-voice society, and stated that "Kayhan's method cannot solve the problems" [alluding to the mouthpiece of the hardliners that accuses a vast segment of the society of being foreign agents, and anti-Islam and anti-Iran]. He then says that he was accused of being in favor of a velvet revolution to overthrow the political system, but told them,

Be careful. This accusation is a double-edge sword that, before cutting people's hands, will cut your own, because it implies that the Islamic Republic of Iran is similar to the communist and quasi-communist regimes that were overthrown by velvet revolutions.

Tajzadeh also says that he told the interrogators that,

My political system is based on the three pillars of republicanism, Islam, and Iran [-ian nationalism], which is vastly different from the communist regimes that could not interpret Marxism in a democratic way, but my system can interpret Islam in a democratic manner....

Tajzadeh then continues, "I reminded the interrogators that any accusations made against us must, according to the Constitution and the relevant laws, have a legal, not ideological, basis, and even if there is a political or ideological aspect, it must be discussed freely in public, not in jail and during interrogation...." He says, "If, despite its mistakes and some extreme measures, I can still defend the Islamic Republic and, at the same time, protest why [Dr. Saeed] Hajjarian's ill body [he is semi-paralyzed] was taken to prison [after last year election], why they beat up on Mehdi Karroubi's son in a mosque and insulted him [by threatening to rape him], why they beat up and wounded some of our best children whose only "sin" was insisting that their votes [be counted] and standing up for their rights, why the mourners for [Imam] Hossein were thrown off bridges [on Ashura last December] and overran some injured citizens with cars [on the same day], and committed all of these in the name of God, it is because we believe that the late leader of the Revolution who said that the shoulders of the Prophet [Muhammad] can be lashed if any right of the people is ignored. It was with such interpretations of Islam that we had the glorious Revolution, not with those of [Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi] Mesbah [Yazdi] who, at that time, was busy trying to find a way to discredit Dr. [Ali] Shariati (1933-1977) [the distinguished philosopher and Islamic scholar] and reduce the workload for the SAVAK [the Shah's dreaded security apparatus, which was also after discrediting Dr. Shariati]."

Note that Tajzadeh mentions disturbing the traffic, because among the accusations made against some of the reformist leaders is that they disturbed the traffic on June 15, 2009, when huge demonstrations broke out in Tehran, as the prosecutors could not find any legal base for making any other accusation!

My Confessions

Tajzadeh continues,

I stand in front of the young generation and declare that the political system for which we rose up in revolt [in 1979] and the Constitution for which we voted is not the same as the one that the military considers as its absolute private property, and considers itself in the same category as the armed forces of Pakistan and Turkey [that also intervene in politics]. This declaration is absolutely necessary because the image that is presented of the Islamic Republic in jails, in the official press, and elsewhere is very ugly and "Frankenstein-like." They are trying to say that the Imam [Ayatollah Khomeini] was similar to [Ayatollahs] Jannati and Mesbah [Yazdi], but do not recognize that such wrong analogies will not provide a justification for their dictatorial manner and repression, but will only help make the young generation reject religion altogether, something that has, unfortunately, happened to some extent, and we were warned about by [the moderate cleric Ayatollah Morteza] Motahhari (1920-1979)....

Tajzadeh then makes one of the most important declarations that any reformist leader has made over the past two decades:

When the interrogators reminded me of some of the mistakes of the first decade of the Revolution, and called me and the followers of Imam's line -- the present reformists -- "fascists," I reminded them of the present fascistic behavior that is repeated in front of the entire nation, and explained that we all made many mistakes at that time but, today, instead of continuing the positive aspects of what we did, they are continuing the same mistakes, particularly when [unlike the 1980s] the country is not at war and not suffering from blind and broad terrorism [committed by the MKO]. "That is why we can no longer call them [what the hardliners do] errors and consider them the result of revolutionary inexperience [of the 1980s]."

Our error was that we did not resist the mistakes of the revolutionary courts [that sent thousands of political prisoners to their death], although even then it was the [followers of] the Imam's line that issued the 10-point declaration of the Prosecutor General in the Spring of 1360 [1981] [that declared that all political groups were free to be active, so long as they set aside armed struggle and were active peacefully], but could not (and the blind terrorism of 1981 and the imposed war [with Iraq] prevented us) from pursuing the declaration until all the undemocratic ways were set aside. The catastrophe is that in the era of peace and absence of terrorism, instead of expanding the freedoms, some of which had even survived the war era, a political faction is trying undemocratically and by ignoring and denying many positive achievements of the era of the sacred defense [the war with Iraq], to repeat our errors in the revolutionary era, and transform the exceptions of that era to the rules.

And then Tajzadeh says most emphatically,

Let me state it as clearly as possible, that our consenting silence regarding the [the actions of the] revolutionary courts [in the 1980s] was our mistake; but mass arrests of law-abiding critics, rendering the protesting citizens "Kahrizaki" [meaning detaining, torturing, raping, and even murdering them at detention centers such as Kahrizak], and shooting at them directly [a reference to what happened last year during the demonstrations] are so repugnant that they can no longer be referred to as "mistakes." Thus, we must confess, but not in the [Stalinist] show trials and the way the interrogators want us to confess to offenses that we have not committed, but in front of the nation and based on facts. The Revolution generation must confess, but not for its current efforts for expanding democracy and spreading [respect for] human rights [but for its past mistakes].... Of course, we have tried to learn from our mistakes, and tried to correct our behavior and thinking after the war.At the same time I confess that if we had protested the wrong treatment that Ayatollah [Sayyed Mohammad Kazem] Shariatmadari (1905-1985) received [he was accused of being a monarchist, defrocked and put under house arrest until he passed away], in order to preserve the dignity of maraaje' [sources of emulation, meaning the grand ayatollahs], we would not have reached the present situation when the dignity of and respect for such marja' as the late Ayatollah [Hossein Ali] Montazeri [1922-2009], and Ayatollahs [Hossein] Vahid Khorasani, [Abdolkarim] Mousavi Ardabili, [Yousef] Sanei, [Asadollah] Bayat Zanjani, [Ali Mohammad] Dastgheyb Shirazi, [Jalaloddin] Taheri Esfahani, [Abdollah] Javadi Amoli.... are violated even by the Voice and Visage [the national network of radio and TV channels], and even the home and office of the Imam's grandson [Sayyed Hassan Khomeini], and the mausoleum of the Imam and even those of the late [Ayatollah Mohammad] Sadoughi [1908-1982; he was assassinated by the MKO] and [Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khatami [1906-1988, father of the former president] are not safe [their gravestones were recently defaced by the hardliners]...

Thus, if there have been any mistake, and there have been, they are not those that the interrogators claim; and if we are to confess and ask for forgiveness, which we must, we must apologize for the wrong treatment that [Mehdi] Bazargan (1907-1995) and Dr. [Yadollah] Sahabi (1905-2002) received; and also apologize to all those political activists who wanted to be legally active in politics, but their [constitutional] rights were ignored by making various excuses. We must apologize to the citizens for imposing on them a certain lifestyle [rigid conservative Islamic] and interfering in their private lives. We, the average people, thought that we could close the vineyards without opening the doors of pretense. Our mistake was that we made some ordinary secular activities holy, but were ignorant of the fact that [as a result] many [really] holy things actually would become secular. Our gravest mistake was extending the political relations of the era of esmat[innocence, referring to the era of Prophet Muhammad and the Shiite Imams] to the era ofgheybat [hiding, meaning the era in which Mahdi, the 12th Shiite Imam is hidden and supposedly will return someday]... the most important result of which is weakening the religious beliefs of our young people [not strengthening them].... We should have declared that, unlike all other revolutions, [in our revolution] under no condition, even during war and terrorism, violations of human rights are neither legal, nor Islamic, nor moral.... We should not have allowed the treason of some [those of the MKO] to be an excuse for our deviations from legal and human paths.

Thus, although in my opinion the necessary condition for confronting those who want to force [us] to "confess" is to reveal and condemn their acts, the sufficient condition is to ask for forgiveness from those who were truly oppressed, and accepting the fact that if we had fulfilled our moral and national duty [confronting the injustice] at the right time [in the 1980s], we would not have been trapped in the forced confession and repenting [sessions by the hardliners]. Thus, following Dr. [Ali] Shariati, I say to my generation, "father, mother, we are again the accused, not by the interrogators, but by the current generation." If we consider ourselves supporters of the Islamic Revolution and defenders of the [Ayatollah Khomeini's] principle that, "every generation must decide its own fate," we must prepare the conditions in which the promises of Neauphle-le-Château [a suburb of Paris where Ayatollah Khomeini stayed from early October 1978 to February 1, 1979, for 117 days] and Behesht-e Zahra [Tehran's main cemetery] can be materialized [in both places the Ayatollah promised a democratic political system]...

Just as we should not transfer any hatred from the jails to society, we should also not allow a repeat of the mistakes of the revolutionary era in the present times. Doing so entails accepting our own mistake and being prepared to respond to the accusations of the new generation [that we have brought the present conditions upon them]. If we do not confess our mistakes to the new generation, then the conditions will be ripe for the emergence of those who justify their graver mistakes [and crimes] by ours [in the 1980s]. We cannot claim to be adherents of the Paris declaration [by Ayatollah Khomeini in the fall of 1978] about democracy, human rights, freedom of expression, the press, political parties and the Voice and Visage, women's and ethnic rights, free elections, and republicanism and its link with Islam, but not speak out against the root cause, reasons, impediments, and mistakes that prevent these from materializing.

In other words, if the political group [the hardliners] that is carrying the flag of preventing legal political activism, has taken the election campaigners to court, and presents our mistakes of the first decade of the Revolution [in not defending freedom and justice] as the positive aspects of the Revolution, we should also declare to the Iranian nation explicitly what we consider as our mistakes and what we still proudly defend. This would be the complete opposite of what the barracks party [the military] does in pretending that the mistakes of the first decade of the Revolution and repeating them are the only "revolutionary" way to protect the political establishment, and try to close the doors forever on the free press, free political parties, and free election.

I do not accept the invitation [of the interrogators to "confess"], and instead, consider it my duty to respond to the questions of the young generation as to why and how in the political system that was formed as a result of one of the most popular revolutions of the contemporary era, the thinking of [Ayatollah] Mesbah [Yazdi] rules and replaces the parliamentary way of [another cleric, Sayyed Hassan] Modarres (1870-1937) [the progressive cleric who was murdered by Reza Shah of the Pahlavi dynasty]. How the official media used by some to refer to a great majority of the people "dust" [what Ahmadinejad did last year after his "victory"], ship, and kid and, instead of apologizing for their illegal acts, try to jail the election campaign activists [the reformists] in solitary confinement and force them to apologize [for what they have not committed]. Why the mistakes of the courts in the first decade of the Revolution re-emerged in the person of [Saeed] Mortazavi [the notorious former Tehran Prosecutor]. Why the [national] television that broadcast the free political debates of the spring of 1360 [1981] has become the Voice and Visage of today. Why the Kayhan of Sayyed Mohammad Khatami [when he was the editor in the 1980s] became the Kayhan of Hossein Shariatmadari [the present managing editor, and a most notorious figure]. How Sadegh Larijani has replaced [the former judiciary chief Ayatollah] Dr. [Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini] Beheshti (1928-1981) [who was likely assassinated by the MKO], and [Mohammad Reza] Rahimi [Ahmadinejad's first Vice President who has been accused of vast corruption] has replaced the Imam's prime minister [Mousavi]. How Sayyed Ahmad Khatami [the hardline cleric with relation to Mohammad Khatami] replaced [the former leader of Friday prayer of Tehran Ayatollah Sayyed Mahmoud] Taleghani (1911-1979) [a popular and progressive cleric]. We should apologize for our share in creating this situation, and discuss its root cause and reasons.

Apologizing to the new generation should not be limited to the cases [mistakes] that I have briefly described. We must do so in an atmosphere of debate and exchange of ideas, and there may be many other mistakes that I am not aware of, but the new generation can, by their [constructive] criticism make me aware of them.

Regardless of what happens to Tajzadeh, one thing is clear: He is a patriot who has served his nation with honor and dignity, has made great sacrifices, and has always been a proud reformer and advocate of a democratic Iran. His manifesto and utter honesty in admitting the mistakes that the reformists made surely represents a watershed moment in the history of the reformist/Green/democratic movement, and will be immensely helpful to it.

The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."