Shanghai Power Politics: China Shuts Out Iran (Shan Shan)

Two weeks ago, the 10th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council summit, held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, approved the SCO Rules of Procedure and the regulation on procedure for future membership expansion.

Before the summit, Chinese diplomats ritually pointed out that approval of the admission regulations was the first step in forming the basis for a future expansion of SCO membership and would serve as a cornerstone of the organization's rules for external links.

Behind this formality, however, was a more significant story: for now, Iran will not allowed to  join the organisation.

The ostensible reason was that the SCO's regulations proscribe that “any country under UN sanctions cannot be admitted”. At the time of the meeting, Iran was subject to a 4th round of restrictions; a few days after the meeting, the UN Security Council passed yet another resolution.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not attend the summit, although he visited the Shanghai Expo and took part in celebrations at the Iranian pavilion on June 11. The Chinese Foreign Ministry maintained that Ahmadinejad was only visiting the country to attend the Expo, but analysts said he “is here to seek more support from China to water down fresh sanctions”.

The rejection of Iran's membership is far from the entire story, of course. The relationship between China and Iran is still stable. "There is no reason to control or weaken the relationship (with China)”,  Ahmadinejad told a news conference after his visit to the Expo.
Moreover, this summit focused on economic cooperation and security issues in Central Asia, especially in Afghanistan, such as drug trafficking, terrorism ,and organized crime. Besides, the unrest in in Kyrgyzstan is another hot issue at this summit.

The fact remains, however, that Iran was kept at arm's distance. Zhang Xiao, deputy director-general of the Foreign Ministry's department of European and Central Asian affairs, indicated that the SCO is only considering the legal basis for expanding membership, indicating that there is a long way to go before formal accession will even be contemplated.

Furthermore, Beijing is more cautious than Russia, the other main power of the SCO. According to China Daily, Chinese President Hu Jintao told his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev that SCO cooperation and exchange with outside countries should be done in a proper and stable manner, and on the basis of improving the strength of the bloc. "Blind expansion will spoil it (SCO) with excessive enthusiasm".

Pang Zhongying, a senior expert on world politics at Renmin University of China, assessed, "For a regional bloc, it is definitely not the more the better. Now the European Union has 27 members, and we can see more complex problems. The same reason also resulted in a loose APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum). One of the approaches to ruin a bloc is encouraging it to admit more members."

Add the complicated situation in central Asia and the main concerns of the SCO, and it appears that Iran will be observing the group from outside for some time to come.

The Latest from Iran (21 June): Beyond Quiet Remembrance

2025 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Zahra Farajzadeh, the wife of imprisoned Azeri activist Ayat-Mehr-Ali Bigloo, has been detained. She was reportedly held by authorities when she asked the Revolutionary Court for a telephone conversation with her husband.

Farajzadeh's sister, Hamideh Farajzadeh, is also in prison.

NEW Iran, One Year On: The Names of 107 Killed in Post-Election Violence
Iran Document: Karroubi Takes on the Supreme Leader (20 June)
Iran Special: Legal Analysis of Post-Election Violations of Rights (Shadi Sadr)
Iran Video, One Year On: The “Neda” Documentaries
The Latest from Iran (20 June): Remembering the Protests and the Dead

1845 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Reuters reports that China's imports of Iranian oil dropped 74 percent in May, compared to a year earlier.

Iran is now #8 oil supplier to China, down from #3 in April. Industry analysts said the main cause of the decline was the uncompetitive pricing of Iranian crude oil, with China boosting purchases from Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Angola.

1745 GMT: The Fall-Out from 4 June. A representative of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who is based in Iraq, has met Seyed Hassan Khomeini in Qom and expressed regret for the "insult" to him at the ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini early this month.

1450 GMT: Iran and Palestine. Remember those Iranian aid ships which were making headlines with their planned trip to Gaza (indeed, at one point, it was said one was en route)?

The Iranian Red Crescent said today that  due to lack of international coordination, the ships were delayed and no date had been fixed for their journey.

1445 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Nasour Naghipour has been released on bail, after 110 days' detention, while he awaits trial.

1435 GMT: A Health Care Crisis? Dr. Rahbar Mozhdehi Azar, the head of Iran's pharmacists, has reportedly claimed that several pharmacies closed because they have not been paid by insurers for six months. Aftab News reports that 19 hospitals are waiting for 350 millions tomans ($35 million) in payments.

Khabar Online wonders if  pharmacies can cancel their agreements with with insurers, leaving people with debts unable to get medication.

1425 GMT: The Economic Battle, Chapter 437. More sniping by members of Parliament against the Ahmadinejad budget. Reformist Darius Ghanbari says that reports from the Majlis point to budget deviations by the Government, and Ali Akbar Oulia adds criticism of "deviations" are in economic growth, revenues, and employment in the 4th development plan.

1420 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Just for the record --- because I'm too tired to evaluate yet another inscrutable comment by Hashemi Rafsanjani --- the former President has said in his most recent interivew that he expected the Supreme Leader to speak out against the “accusations” made against “certain officials of the regime.”

Rafsanjani said in an interview that Mahmoud Ahmadienjad’s statements in his presidential debate with Mir Hossein Mousavi were “highly inappropriate.” He also talks at length about his letter to Ayatollah Khamenei, sent three days before the election, over Ahmadinejad's accusations of financial corruption against Rafsanjani and his family.

Now is Rafsanjani trying to give a signal of support for Mousavi or is he merely fighting his personal corner in his running battle against the Government and its pressure against him, his allies, and his children?

1410 GMT: Corruption Watch. Member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has kept the corruption issue alive, saying that his complaint against 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi --- made over an insurance fraud scandal --- is still valid and he is still pursuing it.

1405 GMT: The Fall-Out from 4 June. Another sign of support for Seyed Hassan Khomeini after he was shouted down at the ceremony for his grandfather earlier this month: Ayatollah Amini, the Friday Prayer leader of Qom, has met Khomeini and declared his regret over the incident.

1354 GMT: Yesterday's "Fear of the Gravestones". Fereshteh Ghazi writes of the security buildup on 25 Khordad, with all roads to Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery covered by security forces. About 1000 people were at the cemetery, and Ghazi reports that victims' families were menaced.

Peyke Iran reports on security forces at Vanak Square (we have video of this in yesterday's updates) and Enghelab Square.

1348 GMT: A New Battlefront Within. Looks like another conflict between President Ahmadinejad and Parliament deserves attention. This one is Ahmadinejad's attempt to get more say about free universities: the Parliament voted 134-72 to maintain the current system of oversight. The President reportedly then cancelled a conference between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches over the issue.

1345 GMT: Bad Hijab. Looks like President Ahmadinejad's criticism of the zealousness of the "morality police" has not made a bit of difference in Qom. Tehran Today, quoting Colonel Khorasani, Head of Public Security in Qom Province, says 62,000 women have been warned about inappropriate attire.

1340 GMT: Thanks to all readers for helping out. Now let's see what has been happening.

0730 GMT: We're on the road at the University of Leicester today. Updates will be limited until mid-afternoon.

As always, news and comments from our readers are most welcome to keep everything up to speed until we return.

0725 GMT: Nuclear Posturing. Iran has barred two UN nuclear inspectors from entering the country. The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, said the two were declared persona non-grata for authoring an "untruthful" report by the International Atomic Energy Agency about Iran's nuclear work.

0650 GMT: Culture Corner. Hat-tip to an EA reader for pointing us to a BBC Persian programme reviewing art, politics, and protest before and after the 2009 Presidential election.

0625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mehdi Karroubi has visited with the family of the detained politician Ali Tajernia, an executive member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front.



0530 GMT: Sunday's commemoration of 25 Khordad, the anniversary of mass demonstrations and the deaths of protesters, appeared to pass quietly in Iran. There was a heavy security presence in areas of Tehran, noted by Rah-e-Sabz in addition to its headlining of the "scathing silence" of the Mothers of Mourning.

Politics was far from silent, however. During the afternoon, news emerged of Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement, and it became clear that he had not just restated his personal determination, criticism of the Government, and the determination of the opposition. He had also issued a pointed query about the powers of the Supreme Leader. We have posted the English translation in a separate entry.

And Kalemeh clarifies our news yesterday that Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Karroubi, and Hassan Khomeini had all called Grand Ayatollah Sane'i in the aftermath of the attack on his house by regime supporters. This was not just a case of individual phone calls; this was a "dialogue" involving the former Presidents, clerics, and opposition figures.

China This Week: The Economic Front

Shan Shan updates EA with the latest economic news from China:

Warning to Google "Multinationals 'should respect laws in China": Chinese trade experts said on Tuesday that Google's description of China's Internet restrictions as an unfair barrier to free trade is groundless, as the country's Internet regulations apply to everyone and are in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization.

"It is understandable that different countries have various laws and regulations with regard to the Internet,", said Wang Lequan, director of the research center on transnational corporations at the Ministry of Commerce.  "As long as these regulations fulfill China's commitment to the World Trade Organization, multinationals should respect that.”

China This Week: Kyrgyzstan, Beijing’s Help for US; Latest on Economy

Google said last week that it would ask the US and governments in Europe to press China to lift Internet restrictions.

Warning of Real Estate Risks: The credit risks associated with home mortgages are growing and a "chain effect" may reappear in real-estate development loans, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in its annual report.

The regulator has told banks to report on risk exposure by the end of June to help prevent a credit boom from leading to more bad loans. Property prices rose by 12.4 percent year-on-year in May, the second-fastest increase on record.

The State Council issued a directive warning that some  quasi-independent financing vehicles, often used by local governments to fund infrastructure projects, were dangerously loaded with debt.

This is China's latest effort to tackle the mounting debt worries of local governments, which analysts have warned could become financial time bombs.

Chinese business confidence falls: Chinese confidence in the economy has fallen in the second quarter of the year because of concerns over rising production costs and shrinking demand, according to a survey by the People's Bank of China. Confidence has risen since the first quarter of 2009.

The report had a silver lining, with entrepreneurs  "prudently optimistic" about demand for exports.

WTO blocks US poultry ban on China: China appears to have notched up a victory in a dispute over a US ban on poultry imports, criticised in an interim report of the World Trade Organization.

"We think the US will not try to impose a similar ban in the next fiscal year, since it would be regarded as open defiance of the latest WTO ruling," a Ministry of Commerce official said Wednesday.

China's $47 billion for Qinghai quake reconstruction: China plans to spend 32 billion yuan ($46.8 billion) on the reconstruction of parts of northwest China's Qinghai Province battered by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in April, the government said.

The money would mainly came from the central budget, supplemented by funds from the Qinghai government, donations and corporate funding, according to a circular published on the government's website, www.gov.cn.

The main reconstruction tasks should be finished in three years, according to the circular.

China This Week: Kyrgyzstan, Beijing's Help for US; Latest on Economy

Shan Shan writes for EA:

China and Kyrgyzstan: China has evacuated 1,299 nationals from Kyrgyzstan where ethnic clashes have left at least 187 people dead, the Foreign Ministry said Thursday.

The ninth and last chartered flight of China Southern Airlines, with 148 Chinese nationals aboard, landed at an airport in Urumqi, capital of northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, early Thursday morning from Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan.

"After three days of efforts, the vast majority of Chinese nationals in Osh have been flown home," said Sun Dali, deputy director of the Department of Consular Affairs with the Foreign Ministry. "But we will continue to pay attention to and contact the Chinese nationals who are still staying in Kyrgyzstan, and offer immediate assistance to them in light of the changes of the local situation."

Meanwhile, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said that the Chinese government has offered emergency humanitarian aid to Kyrgyzstan. The 5-million-yuan ($732,064) in assistance, including medicine, medical equipment, food, drinking water, blankets and tents was announced by the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Beijing boosts holdings of US Debt: China has boosted its holdings of United States Treasury debt for the second straight month. The move is a gesture of assistance to Washington, easing concerns that lagging foreign demand --- and thus lower American exports --- will force the US Government to pay higher interest rates to finance its debt.

China's holdings of US Treasury securities rose by $5 billion to $900.2 billion in April, the US Treasury Department said. China is the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities, and the monthly gains in March and April come after six consecutive months when Beijing was either reducing its US holdings or keeping them constant.

The Chinese gesture to the US was made despite (or possibly because of) public exchanges between Beijing and Washington over the value of the Chinese currency.

China's Foreign Ministry on Monday responded to US calls for a rise in value of the yuan, thus assisting US exports to China,  saying that this was not to blame for the American trade deficit with China. The statement was also aimed at the US Congress, which has been threatening to press China over exchange rate policy.

During the first quarter of this year, US exports of goods to China increased about 50 percent compared to the same period in 2009.

The Latest on the Chinese Economy: China's consumer price index rose 3.1 percent in May compared to 2009, the National Bureau of Statistics has announced. This was a rise from April's figure of 2.8 percent and the trend earlier this year of 2.5 percent.

There may be further pressure on the economy: the producer price index rose 7.1 percent in May, up from April's 6.8 percent.

The official news was balanced by figures showing a 27.5 percent rise in foreign direct investment and a 48.5 percent rise in Chinese exports.

VP on Overseas Tour: Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping is travelling this week, making official visits to Bangladesh, Laos, New Zealand, and Australia.

As is often the case, the reasons for the trip are vague in Chinese official media, but the Australian and New Zealand legs, with meetings with New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, are likely to focus on Pacific security. Laos and Bangladesh? Look for some signs regarding Chinese overseas investment.

The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."