Gaza Latest: Israel Warns Iranian & Lebanese Flotillas; UN Calls for Lifting of Blockade

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Cabinet decision to ease the land blockade, allowing more products into the Gaza Strip, would weaken Hamas's hand while forging a ecurity consensus against the "satellites" of Iran and Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah. He said:

This is the best decision for Israel because it pulls Hamas’s main propaganda claim out from under it, and allows us and our friends in the world to unite around our real security needs.

The ayatollahs’ regime in Iran stands behind the Iranian boats. Hezbullah stands behind the Lebanese flotilla, even though they are trying to hide it. One must understand that these are attempts by Iran and Hezbullah to break the naval and security blockade of Hamas – and that is why yesterday’s cabinet decision was so important.

Gaza Special: Meeting the “Terrorist” Ladies of Lebanon’s Mariam Flotilla (Narwani)

A day later, Iran's state television reported that the ship Infants of Gaza would sail Sunday for Gaza, carrying 1,100 tons of relief supplies and 10 pro-Palestinian activists. Egyptian transportation official Mohammad Abdelwahab said Cairo would not prevent the Iranian ship from passing through the Suez Canal.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi responded with two important points. He said that Israel must not allow Gaza to become an Iranian port and added: "For those who are truly concerned about the [humanitarian] situation in Gaza and wants to bring medical supplies, they are welcome to dock in Ashdod. We will examine [the cargo] and let it in if needed."

Commenting on the Navy probe on the attack on the Freedom Flotilla, Ashkenazi said that "Following initial investigations, the fighters acted superbly under the circumstances."

In Lebanon,  the Naji al-Ali has received Lebanon's green light to depart for Cyprus. The second ship, Mariam, is still awaiting permission.

Noting Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak's  assertion on Monday that Lebanon would be responsible for any "violent and dangerous confrontation", Lebanese Foreign Minister Ali Asham responded on Tuesday that "Israel will be held fully responsible for any attack on Lebanon".

Barak also urged UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to shelve plans for a UN-backed independent investigation. He said:

As long as new flotillas are in the preparation, it's probably better to leave it [a UN investigation] on the shelf for a certain time.

We are moving ahead with our independent investigation, which we believe is clearly independent, reliable, credible and should be allowed to work.

As for the blockade, Christopher Gunness, spokesman of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, said to Reuters that only a complete lifting of restrictions will satisfy the agency:

The Israeli strategy is to make the international community talk about a bag of cement here, a project there. We need full unfettered access through all the crossings.

The list of restricted goods is a moving target. We are never told this is banned and that is banned. Israel's blockade became a blockade against the UN.

The Quartet (the United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations) continued to emphasise not only the "remaining unsustainable situation" in Gaza but also Israel's "legitimate security concerns".

On Tuesday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry joined the international community with a released statement saying that Israel's decision to ease the blockade on Gaza a "positive" but "insufficient" step.

Gaza Special: Meeting the "Terrorist" Ladies of Lebanon's Mariam Flotilla (Narwani)

UPDATE 0910 GMT: The Israel Defense Forces have posted their latest challenge to the Mariam intiative, "Does the Lebanese Flotilla have ties to Hezbollah?"

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Sharmine Narwani writes for The Huffington Post:

Enough is enough. How have we reached a point in politics where lies are the norm, and populations can't be heard through the media machinations bent on keeping the disinformation afloat?

Today I realized that being a "terrorist" is maybe a good thing. Many thanks to the lovely ladies of the Lebanese aid flotilla who are the latest group of civilians attempting to bust open Israel's illegal economic blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel Eases Gaza Blockade, Internal Probe on Flotilla Raid Concludes, Obama-Netanyahu Meeting

I was sitting in my summer-rental in Beirut this morning, enjoying a leisurely Sunday and surfing the web to catch up on some news when I came across a despicable commentary piece by Ben Cohen, a run-of-the-mill propagandist at the American Jewish Committee (AJC).

Right here on The Huffington Post, Cohen launched into a diatribe against the latest aid flotilla headed for Gaza - this time an all-female ship called the "Mariam" which is named after the Virgin Mary and boasts a crew of Lebanese ladies and foreign nationals from the Arab world, US, Canada, France, Serbia, Holland, Finland and other countries. With zero evidence whatsoever, Cohen tries to malign this humanitarian effort by linking the flotilla and its participants to Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah:

This flotilla is being organized by Yasser Kashlak, a Palestinian businessman based in Lebanon. Kashlak is known for his ties to terror groups, having shared the platform at a January "pro-resistance" conference in Beirut with representatives of Hezbollah, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Syrian Ba'ath Party and the Iranian Vice-President, Reza Mir Tajeddini. Kashlak insists that his flotilla is an independent initiative, but Al Manar, Hezbollah's broadcasting arm, disagrees, noting that the voyage was announced less than a day after Nasrallah appealed for more flotillas to head for Gaza. The assertion of no connection with Hezbollah is further undermined by the presence of Samar Hajj, the wife of a former Lebanese General jailed for his part in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

The article --- ostensibly about the flotilla --- uses every trick in the substandard-journalism book to connect individuals and groups by mashing together tidbits of information to suggest a coherent linkage. Have an Arab-sounding name? Palestinian is better. Have a beard? Headscarf? Good. I can make you into a terrorist in 24 hours or less.

We saw how the original Freedom Flotilla, in the hands of the Israeli media-spinning machine, turned into a ship of Islamic terrorists in a nanosecond. Funny then how quickly the Israelis expedited the release of 600+ terrorists in custody.

The international outrage over Israel's deadly attack on a civilian ship ensured that Tel Aviv took it easy with the next aid ship - the Rachel Corrie, named after the American girl who was deliberately run over by an Israeli bulldozer while she was peacefully protesting the demolition of Palestinian homes in the Gaza Strip. The Israelis could hardly afford to kill Rachel Corrie twice.

But now Israel has a bit of a problem. There are still many flotillas being planned, and they cannot afford for these non-violent humanitarian missions to de facto overturn their military decrees. Right or wrong, Israel must protect its Gazan siege at any cost, otherwise its every ruling suddenly becomes open to protest and international opinion. That's no way to run a military state.

So this next boat is making them rub their hands with glee. It is Lebanese in origin. Easy target --- they're Arabs, have Arab sounding names, therefore the association-game will be put into play once more. Rashid Khalidi --- you ain't seen nothing yet.

And, apparently, mainstream Jewish-American groups like the AJC are happy to drive that point home. These are not women, they are terrorists, Cohen extrapolates. They know some terrorists, they have been in the same room as some terrorists, they eat the same food as the terrorists...therefore they are terrorists.

Firstly, let me point out that the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah is not considered a terrorist organization by any other nation than Israel, the US and Canada. Hezbollah has been in a coalition with the largest Christian political party in Lebanon for the past four years --- not a fact you will readily read in the US media. They are a mainstream political party, ran in democratic elections last June and have two ministers serving in the Lebanese cabinet.

Now, let's not get mired in this --- it is Cohen's intention, after all, to have us discussing a Hezbollah connection with this flotilla. Just like the Lebanese-origin Miss USA --- a Shiite no less --- had to endure when she recently became the first Muslim-American to take that crown.

So here I am in Beirut at the start of my summer research trip in the Middle East. Great little coincidence. I picked up the phone and - lo and behold - the flotilla gals were having an organizational meeting at a hotel just down the road from me.

Lovely ladies they were. In the hubbub, I had the chance to meet and chat with a few. Firstly, they are all calling themselves Mariam, "Mary" in Arabic. They are lawyers, architects, doctors, journalists, graphic designers, students, professors, human rights activists and school teachers. Some are full-time moms too.

A few were tearing up after the obviously empassioned speech by main organizer Samar Hajj, who Cohen insinuates is a terrorist. Samar is a dynamic lady --- dramatic arm gestures, twinkly eyes, a cigarette-induced gravelly voice you can hear down the hallway along with the clip-clop of her heels on the marble floor. She is on a mission and you just don't mess with ladies like this.

I don't speak Arabic, but I know that girl vibe thing. Most of these ladies had not met each other before today, but by meeting's end, there were high-fives, group hugs, laughter and some tears. They know there is a risk involved with this flotilla mission, and many have children. They are not interested in "martydom" in the least.

A 24-year-old American "Mariam" from Michigan who is married to a Lebanese man and is six months pregnant with her first child, excitedly told me that she had just decided to join yesterday. She had thought about how great it would be to break the blockade of Gaza and then "I just bumped into the opportunity."

Asked whether she worried about her pregnant state, she told me she instantly agreed to join, but then "between me and myself I thought...am I scared? Am I not scared? What about the baby? But then I decided regardless of whether I'm scared or not, this has to be done. People's lives must mean something - Palestinians in Gaza need and deserve the same life that I have, my baby has, my president has."

When asked what her husband thought of her decision, she said he wanted to go too and joked that he would sneak on board. The quick-witted mother-to-be deadpanned: "I told him not to embarrass me."

There will be a female medical doctor on board, but just in case, a handsome young Red Cross worker was brought into Sunday's meeting to show the ladies how to tie a tourniquet, staunch a wound, and stabilise a broken limb. The wide-eyed audience listened intently and rushed to give him a scarf here, a ribbon there, when he searched for some material to demonstrate.

Samar Hajj ---- Cohen's terrorist --- had this to say: "We are not a political party. We are not Hezbollah, we are not Muslim, we are not Christian. We are women and we have all become Mariam today."

On the potential dangers ahead she says: "Look, how Israel deals with humans - all of us women reject this force, aggressiveness, injustice." If there was a Jewish population in the same situation as Gaza we would stand with them and do the same thing. If they want to stop us by force, it is their problem because we have no weapons - no axes, knives and sticks, no guns. We just come armed with our belief in justice and freedom."

She continued: "Come meet us, see us. We are not terrorists. What we know is to cook, work, have babies. No, we are not going to fight the Israelis. We will just turn the other cheek."

I asked her about Tel Aviv's threat to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on Friday that Israel would "use all necessary means" to prevent this ladies-only ship from breaching the blockade. Delivered by Israel's female UN ambassador Gabriela Shalev, no less.

Samar insisted that any and all international agencies are welcome on board the ship to search and investigate to their heart's content, but warned Israel "not to make the biggest mistake in your history. This is the Mariam. It is the Virgin Mary and therefore a blessed vessel."

The theme continues. Five American Roman Catholic nuns are en route to join the flotilla from their convent in Oregon, and the word on the street is that the Israeli government has asked the Vatican not to allow the nuns on board.

That is worrying. It makes me think that Israel is planning some kind of definitive action - something to stop all the flotillas once and for all. Each one of these ships, brimming with civilians from all corners of the globe, threatens to bust through Israel's siege --- not just of Gaza, but all of Palestine.

Sometimes it occurs to me that Israel sits atop nothing more than a stack of playing cards, each card a myth spun by the Jewish state: "this was a swamp and we made it into a garden" or "Palestinians sacrifice their children willingly" or "they want to drive us into the sea."

Together these cards make a veritable fortress. But start picking away at the myths and the whole enterprise comes tumbling down. What happens when one ship breaks through the blockade and nothing happens except the "bearded" men, the "shackled" women and the "expendable" children of Gaza run forward, grinning widely, tears running down those toughened "terrorist" cheeks, thanking "Allah" for the blessings of the brave humanitarians on board the ship that broke their four-year siege, even if only for a day?

That's a foundation card that falls.

And so Israel and its American supporters will do anything to prop up these myths. Even calling a bunch of really amazing ladies "terrorists" to potentially pave the way for their untimely but necessary demise.

Middle East Inside Line: US & EU Back Israel on "Eased Blockade", Lebanon-Israeli Crisis?, Egypt's Manoeuvre, and More...

Two Powers Welcome Israel's Decision: The Obama Administration and the European Union have applauded West Jerusalem's announcement that it will ease its land blockade of the Gaza Strip. The White House called the decision a "step in the right direction". US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said the Obama administration was interested in seeing an "expansion of the scope and types of goods into Gaza...while addressing, obviously, Israel's legitimate security needs."

Gaza Latest: Varied Reactions to Israel’s “Eased” Blockade

The European Union's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, added:

Israel must make sure that many, many more goods can get in to Gaza. I look with great interest at what the Israeli cabinet is saying. This is an in-principle statement ... obviously the detail is what matters.

Former Spanish PM Sees Eye to Eye with Israel: Spain had summoned Israel's ambassador following the flotilla crisis. However, former Prime Minister José María Aznar announced that he plans to promote a new initiative called "Friends For Israel" comprised of journalists, philosophers, politicians, writers, and other figures.

According to Aznar, there is radical Islam on one side and Israel that is providing the Judeo-Christian-rooted West with its Jewish elements. Therefore he says, this initiative must defend Israel's right to exist, as "if Israel goes down, we all go down." He added:

Israel is our first line of defense in a turbulent region that is constantly at risk of descending into chaos... To abandon Israel to its fate, at this moment of all moments, would merely serve to illustrate how far we have sunk and how inexorable our decline now appears.

The real threats to regional stability are to be found in the rise of a radical Islamism which sees Israel’s destruction as the fulfillment of its religious destiny and, simultaneously in the case of Iran, as an expression of its ambitions for regional hegemony. Both phenomena are threats that affect not only Israel, but also the wider West and the world at large.

Aznar also criticized Turkey:

In the wake of the recent incident on board a ship full of anti-Israeli activists in the Mediterranean, it is hard to think of a more unpopular cause to champion. In an ideal world, no state, let alone a recent ally of Israel such as Turkey, would have sponsored and organized a flotilla whose sole purpose was to create an impossible situation for Israel: making it choose between giving up its security policy and the naval blockade, or risking the wrath of the world.

Lebanon-Israel Crisis Approaching?: Lebanon aid ship Miriam is set to sail to Gaza on Sunday. Israeli officials accused Hezbollah of being behind the mission; Hezbollah rejected the claim.

In response, Israel told the United Nations on Friday that this could "affect the peace and security of the region" and said it reserved its right to use "all necessary means" to stop the ships. Israel's ambassador to the UN, Gabriela Shalev, wrote:

It appears that a small number of ships plan to depart from Lebanon and sail to the Gaza Strip which is under the control of the Hamas terrorist regime while those who organize this action claim that they wish to break the blockade on Gaza and to bring humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza, the true nature of the actions remains dubious.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials added the Turkish-based Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Aid (IHH), the funders of the Freedom Flotilla, to its terror watch list.

Egypt Rejects Israel Demand on Iran Aid Ships: Cairo newspaper A-Dar reported Friday that Israel issued a request to Egypt to prevent aid ships from Iran reaching Gaza via the Suez Canal. However, Egyptian officials declined Israel's request on the grounds of the "requirements of international law" which makes it "not possible to prevent the passage of any ship through the canal".

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

2010 GMT: Picture of the Day? Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani during the speech of the Supreme Leader:

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show
Iran Document: Majid Tavakoli “The Will of My Nation Led to Victory”
The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2000 GMT: Interrogation Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that security forces went to the home of human rights activist Saba Vasefi to arrest her, but she was not away. There is no information on her current situation and whereabouts.


Vasefi, a university instructor, researcher, human rights activist, and women’s rights activist, reportedly was looking into the case of a person sentenced to death but has not returned.

1704 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement continues to resonate, with his declaration that "they have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam".

Karroubi's website Saham News also clarifies the story, spread by Fars News, that the cleric was assaulted on Thursday. An incident did occur at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery The website adds that Karroubi was able to reach the Haram where --- significantly in light of today's events --- he was received by Hassan Khomeini.

1700 GMT: Absentees. No reformists, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami --- attended the ceremony today.

1645 GMT: The Big Story from Today --- Hassan Khomeini. It looks like the speech of President Ahmadinejad, and even that of the Supreme Leader, have been overshadowed by the sabotaging of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson.

The story is all over the Iranian web. The pro-regime Raja News is spreading the slogan, "Imam Khomeini's real nephew is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah [the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon]". The story is now spreading that Raja disseminated this before the ceremony today and encouraged the heckling of Hassan Khomeini.

It is also significant that Hassan Khomeini halted his speech after the chants of "Death to Mousavi" started, stating, "Please refrain from expressing such sentiments until the Leader takes the podium." During the Supreme Leader's speech, both he and Hashemi Rafsanjani kept their heads buried deep in their chests.

1520 GMT: Clerical Support. Ayatollah Dastgheib has written to Mir Hossein Mousavi, expressing his support for Mousavi's "sincerity and his avoidance of betrayal, lies, and hypocrisy".

1455 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shabnam Madadzadeh, vice president of the student organisation Daftar Tahkim Vahdat, and her brother Farzad have both been sentenced to five years in prison.

1450 GMT: Relaxing the Oil Squeeze? International Oil Daily claims that Royal Dutch Shell has resumed shipments to Iran, with three 30,000-ton deliveries of gasoline/petrol last month at the port of Bandar Abbas.

1445 GMT: Parliament v. President. Peyke Iran claims that Parliament's Article 90 Commission has said that it is not convinced of Ahmadinejad's defence of his Government's implementation of policies.

1440 GMT: Reading Larijani. And what of this what you will from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, explaining at a memorial service, "Today we see a backwardness which has nothing to do with the ideas of the Imam [Khomeini]."

1425 GMT: Reading Today. We've posted a snap analysis of the significance of today's speeches.

Khabar Online posts an article on the sabotage of Hassan Khomeini's speech. The website also claims that the Supreme Leader consoled Khomeini by kissing him on the forehead.

The reformist Green Voice of Freedom also covers the incident, emphasising Khomeini's declaration that those shouting down his words were "a minority".

0935 GMT: The Bad West. Khamenei is still criticising the West and Israel, claiming that the US and others try to restrict Iran's access to nuclear energy (but saying little more), as the crowds chants Death to the US and Death to Israel.

And that's about it as the Supreme Leader moves to a closing prayer and Press TV cuts its coverage.

0925 GMT: The Israel Rap. After leading the audience in prayer, the Supreme Leader uses the attack on the Freedom Flotilla as proof of Israel "murdering innocents" as Western "hypocrites and liars" observe and keep silent over the "barbaric and savage" Zionists.

0920 GMT: Back to the Challenge. "They started this chaos. They tried their efforts. They supported those rioters. The UK also supported them, Western powers [supported them]. MKO ["terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and all the opponents supported them. What was the result?....Our great people last year showed such a great power that dazzled the whole world."

0916 GMT: Audience Watch. They may be rivals for power, but Ahmadinejad is sitting next to Sadegh and Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad ally Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is three seats from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0912 GMT: Now I Will Shake My Fist. The Supreme Leader starts his attack on opposition figures by saying that individuals should not be judged on their past offices but on their present positions, adding that the first Imam, Imam Ali, fought former allies when they strayed.

How serious could this get? Khamenei notes that some people who accompanied Ayatollah Khomeini on his return to Iran in 1979 were later executed because they left the proper path. His message to opponents: "the yardstick for passing judgement is your present situation if, God forbid, Satan pushes [you] the wrong way".

0910 GMT: Still going on about Israel and Palestine, with an Iranian position "based on logic and not sloganeering".

0905 GMT: The Global Dimension. Instead of returning to the internal battle, the Supreme Leader uses his invocation of Khomeini and democracy to claim that Iran --- without interfering in the affairs of other countries --- is setting a "glorious example" to the rest of the world.

He quickly moves, however, from glory to darker language, setting up his anti-Israel section by invoking Ayatollah Khomeini's description of Israel as a "cancerous tumour".

0900 GMT: Legitimacy. Khamenei points to elections in the early days of the Islamic Republic: "In no other revolution do you see a referendum less than two months after victory." And, in the toughest times during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the elections were never postponed.

0850 GMT: Attack Resumed. Another not-so-veiled reference by Khamenei to political opponents as "mercenaries" of foreign, hostile powers. He speaks of their stances on Qods Day (September) and Ashura (27 December) --- both occasions of large opposition demonstrations --- and says that "we cannot remain silent" and "call ourselves followers of the Imam".

0830 GMT: The First Swipe. Khameini makes his first analogy with the contemporary situation, criticising those who were followers of Ayatollah Khomeini but "went their own way" and "lost their goals....After years, they stand against those ideals."

Mir Hossein Mousavi just happened to be Prime Minister during the last years of Ayatollah Khomeini's life.

(Interesting side note: the Supreme Leader reads and interprets sections of Khomeini's will but never notes his injunction against the involvement of the military in politics.)

0825 GMT: Disrespecting Khomeini. A quick flashback to the episode between the Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader speeches: the section of the crowd who sabotaged the speech of the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, were reportedly chanting, "Death to Mousavi". We've posted the video.

0820 GMT: Audience Check. In contrast to the lack of VIPs who showed up for President Ahmadinejad, everyone who is anyone is here for Khamenei. The three Larijani brothers have now appeared, as has former President Rafsanjani.

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader begins with a lengthy section lauding the steadfastness and piety of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0800 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei has just arrived on the stage. We have an urgent commitment this morning so we will be blogging the Supreme Leader's address "as live" in about three hours.

0800 GMT: Extraordinary development --- a section of the crowd is yelling to prevent Hassan Khomeini from speaking. He is now referring to this openly, asking "forgiveness for all of us". (Press TV makes no reference to the disruption.)

0752 GMT: A Surprise Appearance. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, is now speaking. That's a bit unexpected: Hassan Khomeini has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government and has been under sustained pressure to curb his activities.

He is greeted enthusiastically --- more enthusiastically than Ahmadinejad --- and has to pause repeatedly for the crowd to quiet before he can speak.

(Or, alternatively, is the loud noise meant to block Hassan Khomeini's speech?)

0750 GMT: Press TV does not even wait for the end of Ahmadinejad's speech before cutting away.

0745 GMT: Is It Empty Behind Ahmadinejad's Back?

All in all, a pretty uneventful speech. There was the standard Ahmadinejad rhetoric denouncing "the West" and Israel (although no direct reference to Iran's nuclear programme), and one passage went after his opponents, promising that the Iranian nation --- which backed him in the 2009 election --- would "annihilate" them.

But it was pretty tame compared to what we anticipated. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Ahmadinejad has definitely run out of ideas. His speech is repetitive and contains frankly nothing worth mentioning."

Indeed, the takeaway point so far this morning is not Ahmadinejad's speech but those who were not there: apart from Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, everyone must have been stuck in traffic. No Larijani brothers, no Rafsanjani, and no prominent "conservative" politicians.

0740 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes by invoking Khomeini: "The Iranian nation will follow down the Imam's path." And he has a final swipe at "arrogant powers", saying, "We are not afraid of their fabricated power."

0730 GMT: The President is now using the Freedom Flotilla incident to invoke "weak" and "crazy" Israel and the US "under the influence of the criminal Zionists".

Ahmadinejad warns that, if Washington does not stop its support of Israel, it will be "the end of President Obama" and "the end of the US". Any "new aggressive move" will mean the "death of the Zionist regime".

0727 GMT: Ahmadinejad is now back to the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini's triumph over the "arrogant powers", culminating in Iran's "final victory". Those who opposed Iran can now only "surrender to the righteous".

Highest-ranking VIP seen so far? Atomic energy chief Ali Akhbar Salehi.

An EA correspondent notes, "As a Persian saying would put it, 'It's empty behind his back.'"

0717 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad is going big-time against the "hypocrites" of the "Western powers" who challenged Ayatollah Khomeini.

And now he's moving to the "individuals" standing with those powers: "Those who are in league with enemeis cannot claim to follow Imam" --- "If they go awry...they will be removed from the scene by the people....Anyone who stands against this Revolution will be annihilated."

0715 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad goes after the opposition, those "selfish people" who tried to deny him the legitimacy of the election. He invokes Khomeini as referring to the "will of the people" and standing up to "arrogant powers".

0710 GMT: After several uneventful minutes, the President finally makes his play for legitimacy. He proclaims that the election witnessed 40 million Iranians --- 85% of eligible voters --- turning out in a "100% free election" to "set the record of democracy in the whole world".

And almost "25 million" voted for "their servant --- me".

0705 GMT: Nothing special so far in the Ahmadinejad speech. And no sign of major presences in the crowd --- which is muted so far --- although we did spot Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi in the VIP section.

0653 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now addressing the crowd with greetings in Arabic. Press TV has started live coverage.

A large banner under the podium has a quote from Khomeini, always present on this occasion: "America Cannot Do a Damn Thing".

We're watching the crowd to see which VIPs are present.

0650 GMT: Some live shots now from IRINN of the crowd at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine. An EA correspondent estimates "tens of thousands". possibly 100,000, but only the inner courtyard is shown.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi is fretting over the amount of contraband in the Iranian system: "Some 16 billion dollars worth of goods have been smuggled into Iran, while three billion dollars worth have been exported illegally during the last Iranian year."

0630 GMT: Karroubi Strikes. Mehdi Karroubi, who put out a lengthy video message yesterday, has also posted a forthright statement on Saham News:

[The regime officials] speak in a way as if Imam [Khomeini] belongs to them only and others have broken path with the Imam. Whoever objects to fraud in election is accused of being a Mossad or CIA agent. The fate of election is in the hands of Basijis and Sepah [Revolutionary Guards].

I am worried about the Islamic aspect of the regime. They have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam.

0600 GMT: Getting Priorities Right. Press TV have now elevated the remembrance of Ayatollah Khomeini by Iranians "in their millions" to its top story.

Still only a token reference to the Supreme Leader's speech as Press TV jumps to a statement by Hezbollah's Sheikh Nasrallah linking the Khomeini legacy to the "heroes of the Gaza aid flotilla".

0515 GMT: Trumped by the Flotilla? After all our morning analysis on the possible significance of today's Ahmadinejad/Khamenei speeches, a curious signal from Press TV.

The first 10 minutes of its morning news round-up is devoted not to Tehran Friday Prayers but to the aftermath of the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla.

Only after the steady stream of Iranian and international condemnation of the attack does Press TV turn to the commemoration of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini. There is the high-profile, and possibly risky, headline of Tehran police's prediction of more than two million at the shrine and on the streets, coming in "50,000 buses", but only a passing reference to the Supreme Leader's speech and none to Ahmadinejad's.

0500 GMT: Here We Go. Maybe.



This morning both President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will use the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini to deliver speeches on the political situation. Speaking from Khomeini's shrine, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Tehran's Friday Prayers, with Ahmadinejad offering an introduction.

As this is effectively the first regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), one public signal will be the size of the crowd for the occasion. There should be no problem filling the shrine --- an EA correspondent writes that it holds about 50,000 to 60,000 people --- but will there be a mass showing on the streets beyond?



That, however, may be the peripheral matter for propaganda; any debate over numbers tends to overlook the little fact that there is no big show of support for the regime between these high-profile occasions set a few months apart.

Instead, the immediate challenge will come in the content of the two speeches. Ahmadinejad showing up as the warm-up act is an important clue: an EA correspondent says an "introduction" of the Supreme Leader on this occasion is unusual. So the President's appearance, given his rhetoric and his need to establish his authority, points to a tough line on the opposition (and, possibly between the lines, to Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Iranian establishment).

But what about the Supreme Leader? EA staff note that he has two "hot" issues to handle: 1) the application for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election, by Mir Hossein Mousasvi and Mehdi Karroubi and 2) the maneouvres over the Tehran declaration on uranium enrichment by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey.

On the nuclear issue, the Supreme Leader has to decide between whether to hold out the prospect of continuing discussion with the "West" over a possible deal or, given the prospect of tougher sanctions, whether to tell Brazil and Turkey that there is no point in negotiating. The latter course of action would be a setback for Ahmadinejad, who still needs the prospect of a bargain on uranium for his political legitimacy, and a victory for the President's rival, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

That's important politics to handle, but still the primary issue for Khamenei is whether he offers any road back for the opposition, say, the line "repent and we will take you back", or whether he draws the line and says, "That's it. We're taking you down."

Does the Supreme Leader, for example, make an open declaration that the Green Movement and other "enemies" will not be allowed to gather on 12 June or does he avoid comment, letting Iran's bureaucracy turn down the Mousavi-Karroubi request?

And --- given the prospect that the opposition will still try to demonstrate --- does Khamenei, more than 11 months after his last Friday Prayer which said there would be no defiance of the election result, warn that this demonstration and its leaders will be crushed?

The Flotilla: Has Israel Lost Its Second Gaza War? (Burston)

Haaretz's Bradley Burston's writes, "A Special Place in Hell / The Second Gaza War: Israel Lost at Sea", calling the siege of  "Israel's Vietnam":

A war tells a people terrible truths about itself. That is why it is so difficult to listen.

We were determined to avoid an honest look at the first Gaza war. Now, in international waters and having opened fire on an international group of humanitarian aid workers and activists, we are fighting and losing the second. For Israel, in the end, this Second Gaza War could be far more costly and painful than the first.

Gaza Flotilla Attack: Israel Line “We Are Sorry but It Was a Life-Threatening Situation!”
Gaza Flotilla Video: Questions from Last Report Before Israeli Attack
Gaza Video: “If You’re Watching This, The Flotilla Has Been Attacked”
Gaza LiveBlog: Israel Forces Attack Freedom Flotilla, Up to 19 Killed

In going to war in Gaza in late 2008, Israeli military and political leaders hoped to teach Hamas a lesson. They succeeded. Hamas learned that the best way to fight Israel is to let Israel do what it has begun to do naturally: bluster, blunder, stonewall, and fume.


Hamas, and no less, Iran and Hezbollah, learned early on that Israel's own embargo against Hamas-ruled Gaza was the most sophisticated and powerful weapon they could have deployed against the Jewish state.

Here in Israel, we have still yet to learn the lesson: We are no longer defending Israel. We are now defending the siege. The siege itself is becoming Israel's Vietnam.

Of course, we knew this could happen. On Sunday, when the army spokesman began speaking of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in terms of an attack on Israel, MK Nahman Shai, the IDF chief spokesman during the 1991 Gulf war, spoke publicly of his worst nightmare, an operation in which Israeli troops, raiding the flotilla, might open fire on peace activists, aid workers and Nobel laureates.

Likud MK Miri Regev, who also once headed the IDF Spokesman's Office, said early Monday that the most important thing now was to deal with the negative media reports quickly, so they would go away.

But they are not going to go away. One of the ships is named for Rachel Corrie, killed while trying to bar the way of an IDF bulldozer in Gaza seven years ago. Her name, and her story, have since become a lightning rod for pro-Palestinian activism.

Perhaps most ominously, in a stepwise, lemming-like march of folly in our relations with Ankara, a regional power of crucial importance and one which, if heeded, could have helped head off the First Gaza War, we have come dangerously close to effectively declaring a state of war with Turkey.

"This is going to be a very large incident, certainly with the Turks," said Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, the cabinet minister with the most sensitive sense of Israel's ties with the Muslim world.

We explain, time and again, that we are not at war with the people of Gaza. We say it time and again because we ourselves need to believe it, and because, deep down, we do not.

There was a time, when it could be said that we knew ourselves only in wartime. No longer. Now we know nothing. Yet another problem with refraining from talks with Hamas and Iran: They know us so much better than we know ourselves.

They know, as the song about the Lebanon War suggested ("Lo Yachol La'atzor Et Zeh") that we, unable to see ourselves in any clarity, are no longer capable of stopping ourselves.

Hamas, as well as Iran, have come to know and benefit from the toxicity of Israeli domestic politics, which is all too ready to mortgage the future for the sake of a momentary apparent calm.

They know that in our desperation to protect our own image of ourselves, we will avoid modifying policies which have literally brought aid and comfort to our enemies, in particular Hamas, which the siege on Gaza has enriched through tunnel taxes and entrenched through anger toward Israel.

For many on the right, it must be said, there will be a quiet joy in all of what is about to hit the fan. "We told you so," the crowing will begin. "The world hates us, no matter what we do. So we may as well go on building [Read: 'Settling the West Bank and East Jerusalem'] and defending our borders [Read: 'Bolster Hamas and ultimately harm ourselves by refusing to lift the Gaza embargo']."

Hamas, Iran and the Israeli and Diaspora hard right know, as one, that this is a test of enormous importance for Benjamin Netanyahu. Keen to have the world focus on Iran and the threat it poses to the people of Israel, Netanyahu must recognize that the world is now focused on Israel and the threat it poses to the people of Gaza.