Israel-Russia: Handshakes over Iran, Tensions over Hamas

Israeli-Russian relations continue to run along a knife edge. President Shimon Peres used a reception with Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves on Monday to praise Russia for adopting a more aggressive policy on Iran. He praised Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking at the G-20 meeting in Toronto, for noting the “worrying” US assessments that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within two years.

“There is no doubt that this declaration cannot be taken lightly, because until now, Russia had doubts about Iran’s seriousness and ability to build a nuclear bomb,” Peres said. “Therefore, Medvedev’s declaration is a serious change, and Israel appreciates this development.”

Israel Analysis: Dark Clouds Over Netanyahu Before Washington Visit (Yenidunya)

However, in a meeting in Israel on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman reportedly told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that West Jerusalem opposed Moscow's recent advances toward Hamas.

Lavrov countered that it was impossible to ignore the Islamist organisation's popularity amongst Palestinians, particularly in Gaza. He continued: "Russia is doing the right thing by contacting Hamas."

Faced with the Hamas-Palestine issue overtaking the goodwill from its stance on Iran, the Kremlin is using another tactic now by bringing in the members of the Arab League. Before moving to the West Bank, Lavrov said at a press conference that the Quartet mechanism --- the US, UN, European Union, and Russia --- needed to be expanded to be more effective.

Which is another way of saying to West Jerusalem: the ball's back in your court.

Middle East Inside Line: Coalition Changes in Israel?; Netanyahu's War for Legitimacy; Israel Warns Lebanon

Lieberman-Netanyahu War?: Tension is increasing between Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The latter needs the opposition, "centrist" party Kadima in the coalition, butKadima's leader Tzipi Livni wants the Foreign Ministry.

Lieberman doesn't seem to be too receptive. On Tuesday, he told reporters that Kadima could join the coalition as long as Kadima members agreed to support a land and population swap as a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He continued:

This coalition will not change. We are willing to consider a shift in the coalition only if the entire coalition, including Kadima, supports the concept of a populated land swap rather than the concept of land for peace.

Israel’s Political/Military Alternative to Turkey: Romania?
Gaza Latest: Is Egypt Going to Make a Stand Against Israel? (Yenidunya)

Lieberman has a second condition as well: Kadima will agree to the continuation of construction when the freeze in the West Bank ends in September.

What about Netanyahu? The pressure on his shoulders is increasing day by day.

Here is the latest sign: leaders of Netanyahu's coalition partner Labor have said that, unless Kadima joins the government soon, they may not continue in government. That in turn could start a war between Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Netanyahu's Likud, ending up with an early election.

On Thursday, Ha'aretz headlined, "Striking Shift: Complete Lift of Gaza Blockade". According to Israel's Channel Two television, Lieberman proposed to his Italian counterpart, Franco Frattini, that Frattini head a delegation of European diplomats to the Gaza Strip. Although this is a change of policy but a change of tactics, Lieberman might be willing to extend his hand to Netanyahu at this first stage with a "concession".

Netanyahu's War for Israel's "Attacked" Legitimacy: Haaretz learned late Tuesday that Arab and Muslim members of the United Nations, led by Malaysia, are working toward assembling an emergency UN session to discuss Israel's last month raid of a Gaza-bound flotilla.

This was enough for Netanyahu. On Wednesday, during a Knesset discussion on Israel's collapsing international status,  Netanyahu warned  that West Jerusalem's legitimacy is being attacked. He said:

They want to strip us of the natural right to defend ourselves. When we defend ourselves against rocket attack, we are accused of war crimes. We cannot board sea vessels when our soldiers are being attacked and fired upon, because that is a war crime.

They are essentially saying that the Jewish nation does not have the right to defend itself against the most brutal attacks and it doesn't have the right to prevent additional weapons from entering territories from which it is attacked.

Then he targeted the "source of trouble":

The Palestinian side promoted the Goldstone report, organized boycotts, and tried to prevent our entrance into the OECD. The Palestinian Authority has no intentions of engaging in direct talks with us.

I call on [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas, yet again, to enter direct talks with us, because there is no other way to solve the conflict between us without direct dialogue. How could we possibly live side by side if they can't even enter the same room as us?

Lastly, Netanyahu called on activists to go to Iran, not to Gaza:

I call on all human rights activists in the world - -- go to Tehran. That's where there is a human rights violation.

Israel Warns Lebanon: Respondingto Lebanon parliament speaker Nabih Berri's  warning to his Government to start exploring offshore natural gas reserves, claiming that otherwise Israel would claim the resources, Israel's Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau told Bloomberg that Israel would "not hesitate to use force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law".,

Lebanon's former Prime Minister and current member of parliament, Fouad Siniora, also urged the Lebanese government to take the issue of offshore gas reserves in the country's territorial waters seriously.

Gaza Latest: Is Egypt Going to Make a Stand Against Israel? (Yenidunya)

Israel's "Gaza" and Egypt's Manoeuvres: Israeli officials have stated their concerns over a confrontation with a Gaza-bound Iranian ship if Egypt does not prevent the ship from passing through the Suez Canal.

Egyptian official Mohammad Abdelwahab responded that the ship would not be halted.

The immediate explanation? Egyptian authorities do want to carry the main responsibility for halting aid to Gaza, especially following the passage of  12 United Stateswarships and at least one Israeli ship from the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea on last Friday.

Gaza Latest: Israel Warns Iranian & Lebanese Flotillas; UN Calls for Lifting of Blockade

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday accused Israel of trying to make Egypt carry the blame for the situation in Gaza. He said: "We reject attempts by Israel, the occupying force, to free itself of responsibility towards the strip and place it on Egypt."

There may be another reason for Cairo to give such a direct response to West Jerusalem. Last week, Hamas said that it would only accept the Egyptian initiative for Palestinian reconciliatoin if Cairo agreed to some changes. Egypt may be reading that statement not as defiance but as willingness of Hamas willing to negotiate over its relations with the rival party Fath.

There is a bigger question, however. Egypt's current manoeuvres follow years of acceptance of, even cooperation with, Israel's unwillingness to improve the situation of Gazans by lifting the economic siege. After all, it was not only Israeli crossings that were closed or restricted; there is also Egypt's border with Gaza at Rafah.

Is Mubarak really going to say now, "We are exerting all efforts to lift the Israeli blockade on Gaza"?

Gaza Latest: Israel Warns Iranian & Lebanese Flotillas; UN Calls for Lifting of Blockade

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Cabinet decision to ease the land blockade, allowing more products into the Gaza Strip, would weaken Hamas's hand while forging a ecurity consensus against the "satellites" of Iran and Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah. He said:

This is the best decision for Israel because it pulls Hamas’s main propaganda claim out from under it, and allows us and our friends in the world to unite around our real security needs.

The ayatollahs’ regime in Iran stands behind the Iranian boats. Hezbullah stands behind the Lebanese flotilla, even though they are trying to hide it. One must understand that these are attempts by Iran and Hezbullah to break the naval and security blockade of Hamas – and that is why yesterday’s cabinet decision was so important.

Gaza Special: Meeting the “Terrorist” Ladies of Lebanon’s Mariam Flotilla (Narwani)

A day later, Iran's state television reported that the ship Infants of Gaza would sail Sunday for Gaza, carrying 1,100 tons of relief supplies and 10 pro-Palestinian activists. Egyptian transportation official Mohammad Abdelwahab said Cairo would not prevent the Iranian ship from passing through the Suez Canal.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi responded with two important points. He said that Israel must not allow Gaza to become an Iranian port and added: "For those who are truly concerned about the [humanitarian] situation in Gaza and wants to bring medical supplies, they are welcome to dock in Ashdod. We will examine [the cargo] and let it in if needed."

Commenting on the Navy probe on the attack on the Freedom Flotilla, Ashkenazi said that "Following initial investigations, the fighters acted superbly under the circumstances."

In Lebanon,  the Naji al-Ali has received Lebanon's green light to depart for Cyprus. The second ship, Mariam, is still awaiting permission.

Noting Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak's  assertion on Monday that Lebanon would be responsible for any "violent and dangerous confrontation", Lebanese Foreign Minister Ali Asham responded on Tuesday that "Israel will be held fully responsible for any attack on Lebanon".

Barak also urged UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to shelve plans for a UN-backed independent investigation. He said:

As long as new flotillas are in the preparation, it's probably better to leave it [a UN investigation] on the shelf for a certain time.

We are moving ahead with our independent investigation, which we believe is clearly independent, reliable, credible and should be allowed to work.

As for the blockade, Christopher Gunness, spokesman of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, said to Reuters that only a complete lifting of restrictions will satisfy the agency:

The Israeli strategy is to make the international community talk about a bag of cement here, a project there. We need full unfettered access through all the crossings.

The list of restricted goods is a moving target. We are never told this is banned and that is banned. Israel's blockade became a blockade against the UN.

The Quartet (the United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations) continued to emphasise not only the "remaining unsustainable situation" in Gaza but also Israel's "legitimate security concerns".

On Tuesday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry joined the international community with a released statement saying that Israel's decision to ease the blockade on Gaza a "positive" but "insufficient" step.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel Eases Gaza Blockade, Internal Probe on Flotilla Raid Concludes, Obama-Netanyahu Meeting

Israel Votes on "Eased" Blockade: Senior cabinet ministers on Sunday approved steps toward easing Israel's blockade.

The Prime Minister's Office said that Israel would release "as soon as possible" a detailed list of goods that would not be allowed into the Gaza Strip. PM Benjamin Netanyahu said, "Israel seeks to keep out of Gaza weapons and material that Hamas uses to prepare and carry out terror and rocket attacks toward Israel and its civilians. All other goods will be allowed into Gaza."

Middle East Inside Line: US & EU Back Israel on “Eased Blockade”, Lebanon-Israeli Crisis?, Egypt’s Manoeuvre, and More…

Hamas called the Israeli step a "deception" and said that the blockade must be lifted entirely.

Israel's Army Radio quotes Mahmoud Zahar as saying that Hamas would never change its policy of 'resistance' against Israel. In an interview with Al Quds, Zahar then allegedly targeted the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah and said that "rocket launches should happen in the West Bank as well [as Gaza]" He blamed the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas of "fighting the 'resistance'" and added that it was not Hamas that took over Gaza, but in fact President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement that had seized the power in the West Bank, aided by the Israeli "occupation".

Israel's Internal Probe Concludes: Israel Radio reported Sunday that a new investigation into the raid by the internal Israel Navy probe concluded. According to the report, during the mass offensive against Israeli soldiers, the commando unit was inadequately prepared, lacked sufficient intelligence, and was ill-used in its approach to the Turkish-flagged ship.

A commander involved in the attack said, "I still awake at three A.M. every morning and ask myself: Damn it, how did we not know more?", Haaretz reports.

Lebanon's Flotilla Not Moving: The Gaza-bound Lebanese flotilla is still in Lebanon, and it may not be allowed to depart since Lebanese law forbids a departing vessel to dock in a port under Israeli occupation. Sources also told the Arab daily Al-Hayat that organizers failed to appeal to the government for the necessary permits, authorizing their departure as well as their travel. However, it is still possible that organizers will submit a travel plan to a different destination, perhaps Cyprus, and then change course during the course of their voyage.

US-Israeli Meeting: Washington also welcomed Israel's recent decision to ease the blockade on Gaza. "We believe that the implementation of the policy announced by the government of Israel today should improve life for the people of Gaza, and we will continue to support that effort going forward," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said in a statement.

President Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting in Washington, cancelled on 1 June during the flotilla crisis, has been re-scheduled for 6 July. Discussion is expected on two main issues., There is the U.S. position in the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which called for an international conference in 2012 for a Middle East free of nuclear weapons, called on Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and open its nuclear installations to international inspection, and called for the appointment of a special UN envoy on nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

Then there is the "progress" in proximity talks with the West Bank. US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell completed his four rounds of talks and the two sides are ready to talk again. It is uncertain, however, how the Israel's flotilla crisis and, more broadly, the issue of Gaza will affect the course of the talks.

Speaking at a Jewish Agency conference on Sunday, Israeli President Shimon Peres said that Israel's security remains a top priority for the Americans. Watch for signals as to whether that is the case before Obama and Netanyahu shake hands two weeks from now.