Middle East Inside Line: Coalition Changes in Israel?; Netanyahu's War for Legitimacy; Israel Warns Lebanon

Lieberman-Netanyahu War?: Tension is increasing between Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The latter needs the opposition, "centrist" party Kadima in the coalition, butKadima's leader Tzipi Livni wants the Foreign Ministry.

Lieberman doesn't seem to be too receptive. On Tuesday, he told reporters that Kadima could join the coalition as long as Kadima members agreed to support a land and population swap as a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He continued:

This coalition will not change. We are willing to consider a shift in the coalition only if the entire coalition, including Kadima, supports the concept of a populated land swap rather than the concept of land for peace.

Israel’s Political/Military Alternative to Turkey: Romania?
Gaza Latest: Is Egypt Going to Make a Stand Against Israel? (Yenidunya)

Lieberman has a second condition as well: Kadima will agree to the continuation of construction when the freeze in the West Bank ends in September.

What about Netanyahu? The pressure on his shoulders is increasing day by day.

Here is the latest sign: leaders of Netanyahu's coalition partner Labor have said that, unless Kadima joins the government soon, they may not continue in government. That in turn could start a war between Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Netanyahu's Likud, ending up with an early election.

On Thursday, Ha'aretz headlined, "Striking Shift: Complete Lift of Gaza Blockade". According to Israel's Channel Two television, Lieberman proposed to his Italian counterpart, Franco Frattini, that Frattini head a delegation of European diplomats to the Gaza Strip. Although this is a change of policy but a change of tactics, Lieberman might be willing to extend his hand to Netanyahu at this first stage with a "concession".

Netanyahu's War for Israel's "Attacked" Legitimacy: Haaretz learned late Tuesday that Arab and Muslim members of the United Nations, led by Malaysia, are working toward assembling an emergency UN session to discuss Israel's last month raid of a Gaza-bound flotilla.

This was enough for Netanyahu. On Wednesday, during a Knesset discussion on Israel's collapsing international status,  Netanyahu warned  that West Jerusalem's legitimacy is being attacked. He said:

They want to strip us of the natural right to defend ourselves. When we defend ourselves against rocket attack, we are accused of war crimes. We cannot board sea vessels when our soldiers are being attacked and fired upon, because that is a war crime.

They are essentially saying that the Jewish nation does not have the right to defend itself against the most brutal attacks and it doesn't have the right to prevent additional weapons from entering territories from which it is attacked.

Then he targeted the "source of trouble":

The Palestinian side promoted the Goldstone report, organized boycotts, and tried to prevent our entrance into the OECD. The Palestinian Authority has no intentions of engaging in direct talks with us.

I call on [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas, yet again, to enter direct talks with us, because there is no other way to solve the conflict between us without direct dialogue. How could we possibly live side by side if they can't even enter the same room as us?

Lastly, Netanyahu called on activists to go to Iran, not to Gaza:

I call on all human rights activists in the world - -- go to Tehran. That's where there is a human rights violation.

Israel Warns Lebanon: Respondingto Lebanon parliament speaker Nabih Berri's  warning to his Government to start exploring offshore natural gas reserves, claiming that otherwise Israel would claim the resources, Israel's Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau told Bloomberg that Israel would "not hesitate to use force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law".,

Lebanon's former Prime Minister and current member of parliament, Fouad Siniora, also urged the Lebanese government to take the issue of offshore gas reserves in the country's territorial waters seriously.

Gaza: Israel Facing Criticism in European Parliament

On Tuesday, speaking at a hearing in the European Parliament, a member of the Israeli Parliament (Knesset), Afu Aghbaria of the Hadash Party, declared, "In its 62 years of existence, Israel has attacked its neighbors and its Arab citizens nonstop. Israel prevents the passage of medicines and medical supplies to Gaza. As a result of this, 700 Gazans have died at the border crossings."

Aghbaria called on the international community to judge Israeli leaders at the Hague, "[Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, [Minister of Defense Ehud] Barak, [Foreign Minister Avigdor] Lieberman and [opposition leader Tzipi] Livni should be brought to the International Criminal Court in The Hague."

Europe's Inter-Parliamentary Union on Wednesday asked Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin for clarification of the recent recommendation to revoke the privileges of Israeli Arab MK Hanin Zoabi because she was on the Freedom Flotilla.

The European Union's Council of Foreign Ministers, had already issued a statement on Gaza, demanding an impartial inquiry with international representation into the attack on the Flotilla, an end to the Gaza blockade with guarantees of Israel's security, Hamas' release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and an end to the firing of missiles into Israel.

Gaza Latest (16 June): The Blockade and the Proximity Talks

On Tuesday, Tony Blair, the envoy to the Middle East of the Quartet (US-UN-European Union-Russia), hailed the Israeli cabinet’s expected approval of a plan to ease the blockade of the Gaza Strip and allow more aid into the territory as “a very important step”. He said: "It will allow us to keep weapons and weapon materials out of Gaza, but on the other hand to help the Palestinian population there."

According to the plan, there are three elements: the formulation of a blacklist of goods and supplies that will not be allowed into Gaza, particularly items that could be put to use in manufacturing weapons; Israel’s acquiescence to the entry of building materials for UN-sponsored construction projects; and Israel’s agreement to consider stationing EU  as well as Palestinian Authority monitors at border crossings to inspect incoming goods.

For the time being, it is still not certain whether construction materials for houses damaged or ruined following Israel's Operation Cast Lead in December 2008/January 2009 will be allowed.

In contrast, speaking at the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Shin Bet security service director Yuval Diskin took a tough line. First, he said that Hamas was buying up land in East Jerusalem. Then he warned Knesset that lifting the naval blockade on Gaza would be a "dangerous development for Israel". He continued:

It would be a huge security breach, even if ships are inspected along the way in international ports en route to Gaza.

Diskin is not the only person warning against concession. On the same day, a Palestinian Authority official in Ramallah said that the flotilla incident two weeks ago had played into the hands of Hamas. He said:

The [Israeli] assault on the aid ships on May 31 has boosted Hamas... It came as gift from heaven to Hamas...

We want to see the blockade on the Gaza Strip lifted. But at the same time we must be careful not to allow Hamas to reap the fruits and consolidate its control over the Gaza Strip.

This is not the end of the story.... PA President Mahmoud Abbas, who met separately in Sharm e-Sheikh on Tuesday with Amr Moussa and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, reportedly relayed to them his deep concern over attempts to recognize Hamas’s authority in the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, late Tuesday evening, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement saying that the Terkel Committee, which is looking into the raid, would convene on Wednesday for what was called an “introductory meeting”.

All of this occurs amidst the next move for the now-overshadowed "proximity talks". U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell is arriving Israel on Wednesday night to start discussions with Israeli officials on Thursday. He is expected to meet Palestinians on Friday and to fly to Cairo on the weekend.

On Tuesday, in advacne of September's end of the 10-month freeze on settlement construction, Cabinet Minister Dan Meridor said that Israel should refrain from building in areas that will be annexed to the Palestinian Authority in the future. He added:

The freeze will be over in three months, and from then on we will not be committed to it: it's a matter of where it is wise and logical for us to build.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog: The Politics After the Attack (1 June)

2200 GMT: Israeli officials stated that around 10 thousand tons of humanitarian aid reached to Gaza.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVrhQTiAJxM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla: The Text of the UN Security Council Statement
Gaza Flotilla: A Short Note on Why Our “New Media” Are Essential
Blaming the Gaza Flotilla: Text of US Remarks in Security Council
The Flotilla: Has Israel Lost Its Second Gaza War? (Burston)

2115 GMT: Israeli officials said all 680 activists held would be released, including two dozen Israel had threatened earlier to prosecute charging they had assaulted its troops.



2030 GMT: Israeli officials are concerned that Turkey will dispatch Navy warships to accompany a future flotilla to the Gaza Strip.

2000 GMT: The state asked the High Court of Justice to reject out of hand petitions demanding that Israel return the hundreds of anti-blockade activists to their boats in international waters and allow them to sail to Gaza.

1930 GMT: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen urged Israel to let the vessel to finish its mission. Speaking at the parliament in Dublin, he said: "The government has formally requested the Israeli government to allow the Irish-owned ship ... to be allowed to complete its journey unimpeded and discharge its humanitarian cargo in Gaza".

1840 GMT: Hamas chief Khaled Meshal called on all states to cut diplomatic ties with Israel. He said:

We call on all Arab and Islamic nations, and all those who have relations with Israel, to cut all their relations and contacts in all shapes and levels with the Zionist entity.

The continuation of contacts and relations with Israel is a reward for their crimes.

1750 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated the 'significance of the operation" during a special meeting with his ministers. He said:

We know from the experience of Operation Cast Lead that the weapons entering Gaza are being turned against our civilians.

Gaza is a terror state funded by the Iranians, and therefore we must try to prevent any weapons from being brought into Gaza by air, sea and land

1715 GMT: NATO called for a "prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation". Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen also demanded the immediate release of the detained civilians and ships held by Israel.

1655 GMT: A report written by the Israeli based Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center says that The Foundation for Human Rights and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) is a “radical Islamic Organization with an anti-Western orientation.” The report continues: “Besides its legitimate philanthropic activities, it supports radical Islamic networks, including Hamas, and that at least in the past, even global jihad networks.”

According to the defense officials, the IDF identified a group of about 100 passengers on the ship that could have terrorist connections with Global Jihad affiliated groups.

1630 GMT: Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman accused the international community of being "two faced," following UNSC's statement.

1610 GMT: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ordered to open the Rafah land crossing for an unlimited time to let medical and humanitarian aid go in Gaza.

1600 GMT: More Witness Statements. German activist Norman Paech said he had only seen wooden sticks being brandished as troops abseiled on to the deck of the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship in the Flotilla.

Fellow German activist Inge Hoeger said, "We were aware that this would not be a simple cruise across the sea to deliver the goods to Gaza. But we did not count on this kind of brutality."

Bayram Kalyon, arriving back in Istanbul, recounted, "The captain... told us, 'They are firing randomly, they are breaking the windows and entering inside. So you should get out of here as soon as possible'. That was our last conversation with him." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/10208027.stm)

1515 GMT: Getting to the Point. Turkish activist Nilufer Cetin, deported from Israel, said Israeli troops opened fire before boarding the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship of the Flotilla.

Cetin, whose husband is the Mavi Marmara's chief engineer, said, "The Mavi Marmara is filled with blood....The operation started immediately with firing. First it was warning shots, but when the Mavi Marmara wouldn't stop these warnings turned into an attack.
There were sound and smoke bombs and later they used gas bombs. Following the bombings they started to come on board from helicopters."

The account supports video evidence and other accounts, posted on EA, that indicate Israeli forces fired before boarding the ship.

1350 GMT: Speaking at the Knesset, Mossad's Chief Meir Dagan said that strategic ties between Jerusalem and Washington have been slowly changing since the end of the Cold War. He continued: "Bit by bit,
Israel is becoming less of a strategic asset for America".

1330 GMT: A top Navy commander told The Jerusalem Post that Israel will use more aggressive force in the future to prevent ships from breaking the sea blockade and added:

We boarded the ship and were attacked as if it was a war. That will mean that we will have to come prepared in the future as if it was a war.

1315 GMT:The Limits of Criticism. Despite Prime Minister Erdogan's strident criticism of Israel's "bloody massacre" (see 1245 GMT), Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said the Freedom Flotilla crisis will not affect the planned delivery of Israel-made Heron drones to Turkey.

1305 GMT: An American official says, “The situation is that [the Israelis] are so isolated right now that it’s not only that we’re the only ones who will stick up for them. We’re the only ones who believe them –-- and what they’re saying is true.”

Another "senior Administration official" has indicated that there will be no strong US action against Israel, “The president has always said that it will be much easier for Israel to make peace if it feels secure.”

1300 GMT: We've posted the text of the UN Security Council resolution on the Flotilla attack.

1245 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has told Parliament, "This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse."

Erdogan demanded that Israel immediately halt its "inhumane" blockade of Gaza.

1200 GMT: Back from a break to find Al Jazeera cameraman Issam Za'atar, who was on the Flotilla, talking about his experience. A summary from an activist:

"Shocked by savage behavior" of Israelis....Israeli soldiers attacked journalists, chased cameraman, tried to attack him with electric prod to stop him filming....They attacked with gunfire, tear gas, strange-smelling gases.

0945 GMT: Six Greek citizens are back in Athens after accepting deportation from Israel. The released passengers said Israeli commandos beat activists with clubs and used electric shocks. They added that they could hear shooting as Israeli forces boarded the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship.

The Greek government has suspended joint military exercises with Israel and issued a harsh statement condemning the raid.

0845 GMT:The Next Aid Ships. Greta Berlin of the Free Gaza Movement says a second boat carrying about three dozen passengers will join the MV Rachel Corrie, already en route to Gaza and expected to reach coastal waters on Wednesday.

0815 GMT: The protest march in Ankara, heading for the Israeli Embassy in Turkey, has begun.

Demonstrators are stomping on a picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dressed as a pirate.

0810 GMT: Football and Politics. It is reported that Turkey's Ministry of Sport has cancelled tonight's friendly between the Israeli and Turkish youth football teams.

0745 GMT: Amidst the propaganda battle to define what occurred yesterday and the "proper" political response, we've posted a separate entry on "Why Our 'New Media' Are Essential".

0730 GMT: Neil MacFarquhar of The New York Times gets behind the formal UN Security Council resolution:

Turkey proposed a statement that would condemn Israel for violating international law, demand a United Nations investigation and demand that Israel prosecute those responsible for the raid and pay compensation to the victims. It also called for the end of the blockade.

The Obama administration refused to endorse a statement that singled out Israel, and proposed a broader condemnation of the violence that would include the assault of the Israeli commandos as they landed on the deck of the ship."

0725 GMT: And Who Can Speak to the Passengers? The Free Gaza Movement, the organisers of the Flotilla, reports, "Israel has refused our lawyers contact with passengers. No contact with any of them since 3:30 am yesterday. None. Zero. Zip."

0720 GMT: What Happened? Sherine Tadros of Al Jazeera asks an important question: "Will footage taken by journalists onboard the Mavi Marmara [the lead ship in the Flotilla] be confiscated? Still no confirmation by police."

0640 GMT: More Politics. It is interesting this morning thatformer and present British diplomats are pressing the line that Israeli restrictions on aid to Gaza --- the "siege" --- must be lifted. Whether this translates into meaningful action is another matter.

Meanwhile, The New York Times stumbles upon the point that my colleague Ali Yenidunya was already making with his updates to the LiveBlog last night: "Israeli Raid Complicates US Push for Peace".

Let's be clearer than that, shall we? If there is no US denunciation of the Israeli attack --- irrespective of whether you think it should be denounced --- there will be "no push for peace" in the foreseeable future. No Palestinian leader can risk talks, direct or indirect, given the anger throughout the Middle East --- and, in some cases, beyond --- over West Jerusalem's military action.

0635 GMT: How Many Died? We have not posted a figure because we simply don't know. Al Jazeera was reporting "up to 19", but the Israeli military changed the figures throughout the day, finally settling on nine or ten. Because there is no communication with the flotilla or the passengers, thanks to that Israeli military, it is not possible to get close to the truth.

0630 GMT: Amidst the Israel PR line that the passengers on the flotilla were connected to Hamas, The Guardian of London has a useful summary of the former and current parliamentarians, journalists, fimmakers, Nobel Prize laureate, and human rights activists who were aboard.

0615 GMT: Catching up with overnight developments, which have already put down important political markers to watch....

The United Nations Security Council has gone through the ritual of an "emergency session" with few surprises in the statements. Most members denounced the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla, while Israel maintained the line, "What kind of peace activists use knives, clubs and other weapons to attack soldiers?". The US statement (text in separate entry) implicitly defended West Jerusalem by putting the blame for the incident on the flotilla organisers.

The session concluded with a call for an enquiry, but that begs an important question: will that enquiry be by an independent body or by Israeli authorities?

The lesson of the Gaza War of December-January 2008/2009 is significant here. The UN held out against Israeli pressure for its own investigation of the military actions during the war, but Israel and allies effectively trashed the Goldstone Report (and Richard Goldstone) in the months since it appeared.

On another legal/political front, Israel will deport 48 activists from the Flotilla, including 81-year-old former US Ambassador Edward Peck; however, another 480 will be detained in Beersheba pending appeals/eventual deportation.

If many of those 480 continue to refuse deportation, and thus wind up in Israeli jails for an indefinite period, that may be a point of pressure upon West Jerusalem.

Then there is the possibility of an immediate sequel to yesterday's assault: the Israeli military has declared that it is ready to stop another aid ship headed to Gaza. The MV Rachel Corrie, a converted merchant ship named after the activist run down and killed by an Israeli bulldozer, is planning to reach Gazan waters by Wednesday.