Turkey Inside Line: Ankara's Attack in Iraq; Relations with Israel

Cross Border Operation: The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) announced on Wednesday that three commando divisions, supported with one special forces battalio,n followed PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) guerillas/terrorists up to 3 kilometres across the Iraqi border. It was stated that four PKK followers were killed.

This was the first operation since February 2008, when 240 guerillas/terrorists and 27 Turkish soldiers were killed.

Meanwhile, ten PKK members who returned to Turkey in October as part of the government’s initiative to resolve the Kurdish issue were arrested Thursday. Charges against the group were brought in two separate indictments: the festivities that welcomed them back to Turkey led to the allegation “being a member of a terrorist organization” and the statements they subsequently gave constituted “making propaganda for a terrorist organization”.

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Israeli Government officials persuaded activists, led by former member of Parliament Alex Goldfarb and Modi’in Meretz activist Pinhas Har-Zahav to cancel the voyage to northern Cyprus, in a "reverse flotilla" to protest those trying to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

Israeli officials were reportedly concerned that the manoeuvre ould remind international media of the Gaza flotilla when most attention had shifted to issues like the British Petroleum spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the World Cup.

In the United States, two lawmakers warned Turkey over its tension with Israel and its close relations with Iran. "There will be a cost if Turkey stays on its present heading of growing closer to Iran and more antagonistic to the state of Israel," Representative Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives, said. Pence added that he was ready to reevaluate his past reluctance to support a congressional resolution denouncing World War I-era killings of Armenians by Ottoman forces as "genocide".

Democratic Representative Eliot Engel called Turkey's actions "disgraceful", adding that although Ankara was a member of NATO, it had stopped looking westward.

After Ankara's called its under-18 football team back from Israel, the European Volleyball Confederation announced on Thursday that four matches between Israeli and Turkish teams in women league have been canceled.

Afghanistan: What Happens When Our Allies "Do More"? (Mull)

EA correspondent Josh Mull is the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. He also writes at Rethink Afghanistan:

If you've been following the recent military operations in Helmand and Kandahar, you've likely noticed that it's been something of an unmitigated disaster. And not just a disaster in the sense that most of our military efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan have been disasters, this is the make-or-break moment for the US counterinsurgency strategy. My colleague Derrick Crowe writes:

No reporter should let Secretary Gates, General McChrystal, or President Obama off the hook in the coming months regarding the make-or-break nature of the Kandahar operation for their (poorly) chosen COIN strategy in Afghanistan. As described in the report to Congress, Kandahar/Helmand is the main effort, and everything else is either a “shaping,” “supporting,” or “economy of force (read: leftovers)” operation. Kandahar/Helmand is the COIN strategy. If ISAF fails there, it fails, period.

Fail there, fail everywhere. Couldn't be any more clear than that. And that's not his characterization, he's citing the people in charge. Derrick then offers some advice:

Members of Congress considering funding the ongoing Kandahar/Helmand/escalation strategy should read these comments from Secretary Gates with alarm. He’s hedging and trying to set expectations because he knows the COIN effort is in serious, “bleeding ulcer” trouble. Congress should save us all a whole lot of trouble and vote against the $33 billion war spending supplemental under consideration.

Right, when you pressure your representative to block the funding, they need to be made fully aware that our strategy is broken and ruinous. But the problem is that it won't be that easy. Politicians can be very slippery, even the ones we like, and they'll try to shift the blame on to someone else. "No, it's not the strategy," they'll say, "it's our allies. Our allies need to do more."

The folks on Capitol Hill are big believers in Counterinsurgency doctrine, and as we've seen, COIN is not a doctrine, but an ideology that can never be proven or dis-proven. Communism isn't the problem, it's "human nature" that fails. Conservatism can't fail, only you can fail to be conservative. And our COIN strategy can't fail, it has to be the fault of our allies.

But that's wrong. Our allies have been doing more, a lot more. NATO,  Afghan President Karzai, and Pakistan have all been participating in President Obama's escalation strategy, and that is only making the problem worse. If we see what it is our allies are actually doing, we'll find that the COIN defenders are wrong. Our counterinsurgency strategy, the idea that occupation and war have anything remotely to do with stabilizing and developing a nation, is the problem. The US will try to shift the blame onto our allies, but as we'll see, Derrick is right: it's our war that is the problem.

We'll start with our friends in NATO, Canada. We've talked about the new Canadian strategy before, but their "signature project" is especially important to note. They're working on a huge water distribution system in Kandahar province, and if completed, could provide a sustainable development for Afghans to maintain and operate on their own without Western assistance, that supposedly being the overarching goal of our mission in Afghanistan. However, the project has hit a bit of snag [emphasis mine]:

The $50-million Dahla Dam irrigation project, touted as Canada’s best chance for a lasting legacy in Afghanistan, has all but stalled as its lead contractor, a partnership involving the Canadian engineering giant SNC Lavalin, battles for control against a sometimes violent Afghan security firm widely believed to be loyal to Afghanistan’s ruling Karzai family, insiders close to the project say.[...]

Foremost among the setbacks, insiders say, was a dramatic confrontation on Feb. 20, when rising tensions between Canadian security officials hired to oversee the project and members of Watan Risk Management, a group of Afghan mercenaries with close ties to the Karzai family, culminated in a “Mexican standoff” — the guns hired to protect the project actually turned on each other in a hair-trigger confrontation.[...]

“Ever since, the project has been basically held hostage by the Karzai mafia, who are using ‘security concerns’ to stall the work. They are able to put fear in the heart of the Canadian contractors, telling them ‘There is evil outside the gates that will eat you.’ The longer they delay, the more money the Afghan security teams make. The Canadians have good intentions but that is the reality.”

Oops, it looks like the Canadians tried to do more and accidentally bumped into another one of our allies, President Karzai. He's got militia in Kandahar busily working on another part of our COIN strategy, extending the control of the central Kabul government, the "Host Nation" as it's called.

Only Karzai is a criminal with no legitimacy, so he has to extend central government control the only way you can expand an illegitimate, criminal enterprise: violence, intimidation, coercion, all are in play here. Karzai is also desperately dependent on western welfare, so if he expects to remain in power, he'll need to drag out western development projects as long as he possibly can. If "security concerns" will delay a project, then you make your own if you have to. Our strategy requires him to expand his mafia empire; what else is he supposed to do?

And what about the Pakistani military? Our politicians are constantly whining for them to do more for our awful strategy. Well, they are doing more. Here's what that looks like:

"I lost my sense when I reached the door of my house and saw and heard the crying of my close neighbors and relatives--as if hell fell on me. When I saw people putting the dead bodies of my children, parents, and other relatives in bed I couldn't bear it anymore and fell on the ground..."

- A 25-year-old man who lost nine family members when two shells fired by security forces hit his house during the battle of Loi Sam (FATA).

Nice job "protecting the civilian population" there by the Pakistani army --- those innocent women and children will never again be threatened by the Taliban. And the army's "doing more" has the same results as the US "population-centric" strategy of killing civilians by the houseful across the border in Afghanistan. The military assaults legitimize the insurgency and turn the population against the government. That works out great for the other part of our strategy, showering Pakistan's military dictatorship with money and weapons.

Pakistan's army supports the Taliban as "strategic depth" in its war with India. As long as the Taliban are empowered by US and Pakistani military assaults, they survive to be used against India in proxy wars spanning Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Kashmir, and really most of the sub-continent. And as long as those extremist militants are there to threaten, the US has an excuse to give Pakistan...tada! Money and weapons to use in military assaults in the tribal regions. See how this works? Our allies in the Pakistani military are working our COIN strategy with everything they've got, and it's going great for them. Want Pakistan to do more? Gladly.

Our allies are working hard. Canada, one of our last friends in NATO, took our notion of development seriously and are replacing their military with aid projects. But Karzai is also working hard to extend the authority of the host nation, and that requires him to derail development in favor if violence, insecurity, and criminality. Pakistan's army is also working hard to clear its tribal area sanctuaries, so the Taliban can be safe elsewhere to engage in proxy war with India, and that includes in Afghanistan. And then we're back at the beginning, with the US then escalating its occupation to fight the Taliban.

The problem is not NATO, Karzai, or Pakistan. They're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. You might reason that Karzai and Pakistan's military despots aren't good choices for allies, but that misses the point. They are the strategy. And that strategy is the problem, not action or lack of action from our allies.

You're going to see this meme more and more in the coming weeks and months. As we see from Derrick's reporting, the military is well aware that it's failing big time in Afghanistan. So rather than admitting our COIN strategy is a flaming wreck, look for the blame to fall on our allies. Folks who talk about the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan will be elevated, so look forward to [re-]learning old factoids such as that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence  helped create the Taliban and so forth. The White House will continue to pretend to be outraged and confused with Karzai, even though they know full well he's corrupt and illegitimate. And of course, the US will continue to gripe that NATO allies won't send more troops, even though it's the non-military development projects that work.

Don't fall for it. You can demand that Congress block any more funding for the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Cut off the COIN strategy at its source, the money. You can demand that congress abandon Karzai and push for free and fair elections in Afghanistan, so that the central government has legitimacy. You can demand that the US engage with and empower the elected civilian government of Pakistan, rather than  its military despots like General Kiyani. And you can demand they support non-military projects like our allies, Canada. Don't let them get away with pushing the blame off.

The problem lies squarely with the US war.

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog: The Politics After the Attack (1 June)

2200 GMT: Israeli officials stated that around 10 thousand tons of humanitarian aid reached to Gaza.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVrhQTiAJxM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla: The Text of the UN Security Council Statement
Gaza Flotilla: A Short Note on Why Our “New Media” Are Essential
Blaming the Gaza Flotilla: Text of US Remarks in Security Council
The Flotilla: Has Israel Lost Its Second Gaza War? (Burston)

2115 GMT: Israeli officials said all 680 activists held would be released, including two dozen Israel had threatened earlier to prosecute charging they had assaulted its troops.



2030 GMT: Israeli officials are concerned that Turkey will dispatch Navy warships to accompany a future flotilla to the Gaza Strip.

2000 GMT: The state asked the High Court of Justice to reject out of hand petitions demanding that Israel return the hundreds of anti-blockade activists to their boats in international waters and allow them to sail to Gaza.

1930 GMT: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen urged Israel to let the vessel to finish its mission. Speaking at the parliament in Dublin, he said: "The government has formally requested the Israeli government to allow the Irish-owned ship ... to be allowed to complete its journey unimpeded and discharge its humanitarian cargo in Gaza".

1840 GMT: Hamas chief Khaled Meshal called on all states to cut diplomatic ties with Israel. He said:

We call on all Arab and Islamic nations, and all those who have relations with Israel, to cut all their relations and contacts in all shapes and levels with the Zionist entity.

The continuation of contacts and relations with Israel is a reward for their crimes.

1750 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated the 'significance of the operation" during a special meeting with his ministers. He said:

We know from the experience of Operation Cast Lead that the weapons entering Gaza are being turned against our civilians.

Gaza is a terror state funded by the Iranians, and therefore we must try to prevent any weapons from being brought into Gaza by air, sea and land

1715 GMT: NATO called for a "prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation". Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen also demanded the immediate release of the detained civilians and ships held by Israel.

1655 GMT: A report written by the Israeli based Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center says that The Foundation for Human Rights and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) is a “radical Islamic Organization with an anti-Western orientation.” The report continues: “Besides its legitimate philanthropic activities, it supports radical Islamic networks, including Hamas, and that at least in the past, even global jihad networks.”

According to the defense officials, the IDF identified a group of about 100 passengers on the ship that could have terrorist connections with Global Jihad affiliated groups.

1630 GMT: Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman accused the international community of being "two faced," following UNSC's statement.

1610 GMT: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ordered to open the Rafah land crossing for an unlimited time to let medical and humanitarian aid go in Gaza.

1600 GMT: More Witness Statements. German activist Norman Paech said he had only seen wooden sticks being brandished as troops abseiled on to the deck of the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship in the Flotilla.

Fellow German activist Inge Hoeger said, "We were aware that this would not be a simple cruise across the sea to deliver the goods to Gaza. But we did not count on this kind of brutality."

Bayram Kalyon, arriving back in Istanbul, recounted, "The captain... told us, 'They are firing randomly, they are breaking the windows and entering inside. So you should get out of here as soon as possible'. That was our last conversation with him." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/10208027.stm)

1515 GMT: Getting to the Point. Turkish activist Nilufer Cetin, deported from Israel, said Israeli troops opened fire before boarding the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship of the Flotilla.

Cetin, whose husband is the Mavi Marmara's chief engineer, said, "The Mavi Marmara is filled with blood....The operation started immediately with firing. First it was warning shots, but when the Mavi Marmara wouldn't stop these warnings turned into an attack.
There were sound and smoke bombs and later they used gas bombs. Following the bombings they started to come on board from helicopters."

The account supports video evidence and other accounts, posted on EA, that indicate Israeli forces fired before boarding the ship.

1350 GMT: Speaking at the Knesset, Mossad's Chief Meir Dagan said that strategic ties between Jerusalem and Washington have been slowly changing since the end of the Cold War. He continued: "Bit by bit,
Israel is becoming less of a strategic asset for America".

1330 GMT: A top Navy commander told The Jerusalem Post that Israel will use more aggressive force in the future to prevent ships from breaking the sea blockade and added:

We boarded the ship and were attacked as if it was a war. That will mean that we will have to come prepared in the future as if it was a war.

1315 GMT:The Limits of Criticism. Despite Prime Minister Erdogan's strident criticism of Israel's "bloody massacre" (see 1245 GMT), Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said the Freedom Flotilla crisis will not affect the planned delivery of Israel-made Heron drones to Turkey.

1305 GMT: An American official says, “The situation is that [the Israelis] are so isolated right now that it’s not only that we’re the only ones who will stick up for them. We’re the only ones who believe them –-- and what they’re saying is true.”

Another "senior Administration official" has indicated that there will be no strong US action against Israel, “The president has always said that it will be much easier for Israel to make peace if it feels secure.”

1300 GMT: We've posted the text of the UN Security Council resolution on the Flotilla attack.

1245 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has told Parliament, "This bloody massacre by Israel on ships that were taking humanitarian aid to Gaza deserves every kind of curse."

Erdogan demanded that Israel immediately halt its "inhumane" blockade of Gaza.

1200 GMT: Back from a break to find Al Jazeera cameraman Issam Za'atar, who was on the Flotilla, talking about his experience. A summary from an activist:

"Shocked by savage behavior" of Israelis....Israeli soldiers attacked journalists, chased cameraman, tried to attack him with electric prod to stop him filming....They attacked with gunfire, tear gas, strange-smelling gases.

0945 GMT: Six Greek citizens are back in Athens after accepting deportation from Israel. The released passengers said Israeli commandos beat activists with clubs and used electric shocks. They added that they could hear shooting as Israeli forces boarded the Mavi Marmara, the lead ship.

The Greek government has suspended joint military exercises with Israel and issued a harsh statement condemning the raid.

0845 GMT:The Next Aid Ships. Greta Berlin of the Free Gaza Movement says a second boat carrying about three dozen passengers will join the MV Rachel Corrie, already en route to Gaza and expected to reach coastal waters on Wednesday.

0815 GMT: The protest march in Ankara, heading for the Israeli Embassy in Turkey, has begun.

Demonstrators are stomping on a picture of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dressed as a pirate.

0810 GMT: Football and Politics. It is reported that Turkey's Ministry of Sport has cancelled tonight's friendly between the Israeli and Turkish youth football teams.

0745 GMT: Amidst the propaganda battle to define what occurred yesterday and the "proper" political response, we've posted a separate entry on "Why Our 'New Media' Are Essential".

0730 GMT: Neil MacFarquhar of The New York Times gets behind the formal UN Security Council resolution:

Turkey proposed a statement that would condemn Israel for violating international law, demand a United Nations investigation and demand that Israel prosecute those responsible for the raid and pay compensation to the victims. It also called for the end of the blockade.

The Obama administration refused to endorse a statement that singled out Israel, and proposed a broader condemnation of the violence that would include the assault of the Israeli commandos as they landed on the deck of the ship."

0725 GMT: And Who Can Speak to the Passengers? The Free Gaza Movement, the organisers of the Flotilla, reports, "Israel has refused our lawyers contact with passengers. No contact with any of them since 3:30 am yesterday. None. Zero. Zip."

0720 GMT: What Happened? Sherine Tadros of Al Jazeera asks an important question: "Will footage taken by journalists onboard the Mavi Marmara [the lead ship in the Flotilla] be confiscated? Still no confirmation by police."

0640 GMT: More Politics. It is interesting this morning thatformer and present British diplomats are pressing the line that Israeli restrictions on aid to Gaza --- the "siege" --- must be lifted. Whether this translates into meaningful action is another matter.

Meanwhile, The New York Times stumbles upon the point that my colleague Ali Yenidunya was already making with his updates to the LiveBlog last night: "Israeli Raid Complicates US Push for Peace".

Let's be clearer than that, shall we? If there is no US denunciation of the Israeli attack --- irrespective of whether you think it should be denounced --- there will be "no push for peace" in the foreseeable future. No Palestinian leader can risk talks, direct or indirect, given the anger throughout the Middle East --- and, in some cases, beyond --- over West Jerusalem's military action.

0635 GMT: How Many Died? We have not posted a figure because we simply don't know. Al Jazeera was reporting "up to 19", but the Israeli military changed the figures throughout the day, finally settling on nine or ten. Because there is no communication with the flotilla or the passengers, thanks to that Israeli military, it is not possible to get close to the truth.

0630 GMT: Amidst the Israel PR line that the passengers on the flotilla were connected to Hamas, The Guardian of London has a useful summary of the former and current parliamentarians, journalists, fimmakers, Nobel Prize laureate, and human rights activists who were aboard.

0615 GMT: Catching up with overnight developments, which have already put down important political markers to watch....

The United Nations Security Council has gone through the ritual of an "emergency session" with few surprises in the statements. Most members denounced the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla, while Israel maintained the line, "What kind of peace activists use knives, clubs and other weapons to attack soldiers?". The US statement (text in separate entry) implicitly defended West Jerusalem by putting the blame for the incident on the flotilla organisers.

The session concluded with a call for an enquiry, but that begs an important question: will that enquiry be by an independent body or by Israeli authorities?

The lesson of the Gaza War of December-January 2008/2009 is significant here. The UN held out against Israeli pressure for its own investigation of the military actions during the war, but Israel and allies effectively trashed the Goldstone Report (and Richard Goldstone) in the months since it appeared.

On another legal/political front, Israel will deport 48 activists from the Flotilla, including 81-year-old former US Ambassador Edward Peck; however, another 480 will be detained in Beersheba pending appeals/eventual deportation.

If many of those 480 continue to refuse deportation, and thus wind up in Israeli jails for an indefinite period, that may be a point of pressure upon West Jerusalem.

Then there is the possibility of an immediate sequel to yesterday's assault: the Israeli military has declared that it is ready to stop another aid ship headed to Gaza. The MV Rachel Corrie, a converted merchant ship named after the activist run down and killed by an Israeli bulldozer, is planning to reach Gazan waters by Wednesday.