The Latest from Iran (29 June): Grading the Supreme Leader

2000 GMT: The Burning of Baha'i Houses. Radio Farda and BBC Persian Service report that the houses of dozens of Bahais were demolished and/or set ablaze in Mazandaran Province in northern Iran.

Radio Farda has an interview with an eyewitness, and the Baha'i spokeswoman in Geneva, Diane Allai, confirmed the story in a live interview with BBC Persian.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Harassment of Karroubi in Mosque (29 June)
NEW Iran: Can the Green Movement Ally with Workers? (Maljoo)
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Waiting for the Crumbling?
Thinking Human Rights: Citizens, Technology, and the “Right to Protect” (Mazzucelli)
The Latest from Iran (28 June): Remembering 7 Tir?

1945 GMT: Threat of the Day. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki says Britain has a “thick file of biased action” against Iran, so the Foreign Ministry is in agreement with complete severing of all cultural and educational relations with Britain.

Surprisingly, the news has not caused a mass outbreak of fainting and gnashing of teeth in the United Kingdom.

1930 GMT: Today's All is Well Alert. It comes from the head of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, Farid Ameri, who says Iran sees no risks to its gasoline imports.

Up to 10 foreign oil companies have cut shipments to Iran, but Ameri insisted, "Under any conditions we are able to supply the country's gasoline needs and there is no problem in producing or importing gasoline."

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Kabir University student activist Behzad Heydari, detained on 22 Khordaad (12 June), has been freed after 15 days in solitary confinement.

Mahboubeh Karami, a member of the One Million Signatures Campaign, will appear in Revolutionary Court on 28 June , 120 days after her arrest. Association for Women's Rights in Development has further information.

1800 GMT: The Battle over "Neda". The Los Angeles Times picks up on last week's story, noted on EA, of the "official" Iranian state media documentary on the death of Neda Agha-Soltan. The Times summary of Tehran's approach is complemented by Green Correspondents' dissection, in Persian, of the claims (Neda killed by mystery woman, Neda killed by "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Neda killed as part of "Western" plot, and so on).

1730 GMT: We have posted claimed video of Basiji harassment of Mehdi Karroubi --- and Karroubi's reaction --- at a mosque in Tehran today.

1400 GMT: Ahmadinejad  to Rafsanjani "Go". Curious story of the day comes out of the President's latest news conference: he allegedly said, when asked his reaction to Hashemi Rafsanjani's declaration that he was ready to retire, Ahmadinejad replied, "Very grateful".

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that journalist Mahboubeh Khansari has been released on bail after four weeks in detention.

Mokhtar Asadi, a teacher’s union activist, was detained yesterday in Karaj.

1200 GMT: Labour Front. We've posted an assessment by Mohammad Maljoo of the relationship between the Green Movement and workers.

Rah-e-Sabz, via Peyke Iran, claims that about 10o oil refinery workers in Abadan held a protest; two were arrested.

0815 GMT: Watching the Diplomats. An important line buried in a Wall Street Journal article on former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian, who is now a visiting scholar at Princeton University....

"Javad Zarif, a pro-engagement former ambassador to the U.N., is under virtual house arrest in Tehran, said Western officials."

Zarif was the key Iranian diplomat in talks, broken off by the Bush Administration in spring 2003, between Tehran and Washington. At one point, he was supposed to join the staff of Tehran University's Institute of North American and European Studies --- now headed by Dr Seyed Mohammad Marandi --- but the post never materialised.

0805 GMT: Regime Spinning. Iranian state media has used comments of Iran's Ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, to declare that the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq "is at the end of its line".

But the better entertainment value comes out of the Revolutionary Guard's Javan, which warns, "3000 corrupt tourists from East Asian states heading for Iran".

0745 GMT: The International Front. Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has again drawn Washington's lines on Iran and its nuclear programme.

Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Mullen said he believes Iran will continue to pursue nuclear weapons, despite sanctions, and that its achievement of that goal would be "incredibly dangerous". However, he asserted that a military strike against Iran would be "incredibly destabilizing" to the region.

0740 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ali Tabi, a member of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign, has been released from detention.

0730 GMT: Labour Front. Rah-e-Sabz reports on a rally of dismissed and unpaid workers of Tehran's Pars Metal in front of the President's office.

0710 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Khabar Online takes note of the 10 foreign companies who have halted gasoline exports to Iran.

0655 GMT: Execution Watch. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement expressing her hope that reports of the imminent execution of Zeinab Jalalian, a Kurdish woman sentenced to death for membership of the separatist PKK, are just rumours.

0645 GMT: Budget Front. Reports indicate that a Parliamentary commission will finally approve the details of the President's 5th Budget Plan.

So will that stop the sniping against Ahmadinejad by a number of high-profile MPs?

0530 GMT: We start this morning with a quick analysis of signs of stagnation and even crumbling in the Iranian regime.

Meanwhile, more signs....

Secularism and the Supreme Leader

Two articles to note from the opposition Rah-e-Sabz. The website ventures into new ground with a commentary from Arash Naraghi, on the question, "Is it possible to be a secular Muslim?" The reply: "Yes, secularism is an appropriate condition for a good Muslim in a civil society."

And, in a rare English article, Rah-e-Sabz turns from secularism to Iran's top religious figure. It reports that a poll of readers shows 82% marked the Supreme Leader's performance as "very bad" (77.56%) or "bad" (4.52%) while only 4% thought he had been "good".

Keyhan and the CIA v. The Green Movement

Rah-e-Sabz also features a notable and "cheeky", as the British would call it, intervention by Ataollah Mohajerani, a minister in the Khatami Government and ally of Mehdi Karroubi.

Turning the regime's standard argument of foreign support for regime change,Mohajerani links the "hard-line" Keyhan to none other than the Central Intelligence Agency. He notes a provocative editorial by former CIA operative Reuel Marc Gerecht in The New York Times and claims, "Gerecht and those like him [including former Presidential candidate John McCain] support the Green Movement in order to hurt it."

Parliament v. President

The fallout from the dispute over control of Islamic Azad University, complete with demonstrations in front of Parliament, continues. MP Akbar Aalami asserts that the retreat of the Majlis retreat in front of uproars "is a novelty".

The Government Warns Its Own Officials

An advisor in the President's office has declared that officials who are challenging the Government, by creating blogs and not working enough, will be identified.

Earlier this spring, Government outlets said a special unit would be established to monitor officials for inappropriate behaviour.

Khabar Online adds that the main sites for Ahmadinejad supporters are www.valatarin.net and www.nasrclub.com.

Turkey-Israel-US: Intelligence, Politics, and the Raid into Iraq

The recent clash between the Kurdish separatist PKK and the Turkish military have prompted a series of questions.

How could 250 separatists gather and attack a military post while the Turkish forces were continuing operations up to three kilometres inside Iraq? Military experts have given different view:

Turkey: Kurdish Insurgents Kill 11 Soldiers

- The 250 may not have crossed the border on the same day. They might have crossed in clusters of two or three people.

- Turkey's unmanned aerial vehicles, Herons, cannot always detect small groups.

- Due to rain and fog, thermal cameras might have not detected the movement. Insurgents might have wet their clothes to avoid detection by thermal cameras and Herons.

- The Northern Iraqi administration does not share intelligence with Turkey.

Then Turkish media asked,  "Why did U.S.A not share intelligence with Turkey?" Military experts said that information gathered by Washington's own unmanned aerial vehicles goes directly to a US centre. Then it comes to the trilateral coordination centre  in Erbil, northern Iraq, and the final destination is the General Staff in Turkey. The process takes some time.

Israeli newspaper Haaretz said, "Spat or not, Turkey is still using Israeli technology in attacks on Kurdish PKK rebels." Turkish experts have said that they can still use the Heron aircraft despite Israelis recalling their operators. However, the same experts add, "It is not clear whether the six Herons of Turkey have permission to control the Northern Iraqi airspace."

According to Haaretz, the Herons were used in Iraqi airspace. The newspaper continues:

Turkey reported late last week that during operations in May, its forces killed some 130 Kurdish militants in Iraqi territory; it described this as an impressive achievement against terrorism.

Haaretz quotes Turkish officials saying "no decision has been made to formally freeze deals with Israel".

The newspaper pays attention to the dispute between Turkish Foreign Ministry and the bureaucracy of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) bureaucracy. "Turkey does not want to lose what it gained on the international front from the flotilla incident," a source at the Turkish Foreign Ministry told Haaretz. "But it is important to remember that the Prime Minister is operating on the basis of internal political considerations, not only a cool analysis of Turkish interests on the international level."

Meanwhile, Turkish Prime Minister Recap Tayyip Erdogan again targeted Israeli officials again. He said, "Turkey's problem is with Israel's government, not its people" and added:

We have not remained silent against this piracy and injustice, and we will not do so, and we will seek solutions within the framework of international law.

Israel's Tourism Minister Stas Misezhnikov responded, "The Turkish people aren't the enemy, but Erdogan is Israel's enemy."

Turkey: Kurdish Insurgents Kill 11 Soldiers

On Saturday, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) killed 11 and wounded 14 Turkish soldiers in an attack on a military post and a mine explosion near the border with Iraq. The first reaction of the Turkish daily Hurriyet was noteworthy: "250 PKK Members Attacked! Not a Clash but a Real War! It Lasted 5 Hours!"

The Turkish military responded by killing Kurdish separatists. Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) stated that F-16s have been bombarding northern Iraq alongside operations by commandos and the elite force, the "Maroon Berets".

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara’s Attack in Iraq; Relations with Israel

Turkish President Abdullah Gul condemned the PKK's attack and said that operations are going to continue without pause. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that PKK, once again, proved that it is a "pawn". He continued:

The terrorist organisation --- today once again --- is going towards bloody actions ...to sabotage the economic, social, and democratic development process recently initiated by Turkey which gained international importance .

The Chairman of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM), Mehmet Ali Sahin, responded to media in an unusual manner: "I am still waiting a satisfactory statement from the General Staff regarding our martyrs."

Opposition parties all targeted Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said that the Erdogan government is weaking the anti-terrorism struggle and called on the government to show the "required" resolution.

The leader of the National Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahceli, said:

The architect of this dark picture is Erdogan. The government is responsible! The National Security Council (comprised of the Chief of Staff, select members of the Council of Ministers, and the President of the Republic) must convene and the government must take an early election decision. State of emergency must be declared in the region! They must give up the Kurdish initiative!

The Deputy Chairman of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), Bengi Yildiz, criticized the government harshly but, unsurprisingly, from a very different position:

Even if you kill more 10-20-100 thousand people, even if you put 10,000 people in prisons, even if you kill not just one but 20 MPs of BDP, even if you kill all mayors and put them in prisons, you cannot solve this problem with violence, oppression and tyranny!

We Kurds have a famous statement for this: "We hit the full pot with an empty one", so  we have nothing to lose. Let those who have full pots think!

Yildiz's public statement was interpreted as a "threat" by most Turkish newspapers.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara's Attack in Iraq; Relations with Israel

Cross Border Operation: The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) announced on Wednesday that three commando divisions, supported with one special forces battalio,n followed PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) guerillas/terrorists up to 3 kilometres across the Iraqi border. It was stated that four PKK followers were killed.

This was the first operation since February 2008, when 240 guerillas/terrorists and 27 Turkish soldiers were killed.

Meanwhile, ten PKK members who returned to Turkey in October as part of the government’s initiative to resolve the Kurdish issue were arrested Thursday. Charges against the group were brought in two separate indictments: the festivities that welcomed them back to Turkey led to the allegation “being a member of a terrorist organization” and the statements they subsequently gave constituted “making propaganda for a terrorist organization”.

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Israeli Government officials persuaded activists, led by former member of Parliament Alex Goldfarb and Modi’in Meretz activist Pinhas Har-Zahav to cancel the voyage to northern Cyprus, in a "reverse flotilla" to protest those trying to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

Israeli officials were reportedly concerned that the manoeuvre ould remind international media of the Gaza flotilla when most attention had shifted to issues like the British Petroleum spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the World Cup.

In the United States, two lawmakers warned Turkey over its tension with Israel and its close relations with Iran. "There will be a cost if Turkey stays on its present heading of growing closer to Iran and more antagonistic to the state of Israel," Representative Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives, said. Pence added that he was ready to reevaluate his past reluctance to support a congressional resolution denouncing World War I-era killings of Armenians by Ottoman forces as "genocide".

Democratic Representative Eliot Engel called Turkey's actions "disgraceful", adding that although Ankara was a member of NATO, it had stopped looking westward.

After Ankara's called its under-18 football team back from Israel, the European Volleyball Confederation announced on Thursday that four matches between Israeli and Turkish teams in women league have been canceled.

Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.