Turkey Analysis: Which Way is Ankara Heading? (Yenidunya)

There seems to be a lot of fuss right now about whether Turkey is "turning its face towards the East".

The query, often simplistic, arises from a number of development. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is pursuing a "Zero Problem with Neighbours" policy based on dialogue, various economic agreements, and the lifting of visa requirement. The policy includes a close relationship with both Syria and Iran.

This policy has been part of the uranium swap deal with Iran, dismissed by the West; the friction with Israel, from the "low chair" crisis up tothe  nine deaths on board the Mavi Marmara in the Freedom Flotilla; warming relations with Russia, crowned with a nuclear settlement; and the veto of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.



Israeli officials reiterated, following the most recent crisis in high waters, that they view the region separated into two opposite camps. There are "moderates" such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine (West Bank), Jordan, and Israel, There are "extremists" such as Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and (Palestine) Gaza. Israel asks: which will Turkey choose?

That blunt enquiry has been accompanied by some incredibly naive arguments, lacking an apparent notion of the basic principles of international relations. Nuh Yilmaz wrote in Foreign Policy magazine:

"All options are on the table” is the best phrase to describe how Turkey feels about Israel’s attack on humanitarian aid flotilla carrying more than 600 activists from 32 countries... Israel will, most likely, no longer be seen as a friendly state nor an ally, but will be treated as a rogue state by Turkey.

When I say Turkey will imply that “all options are on the table,” I do not mean that Turkey will wage a war against Israel. However, more dangerously, Israel will be seen as a state against which one should protect itself and should consider any possible action because of its unlawful and rogue character.

Others placed Ankara's "adventurism" at the centre of Turkish-American relations. Steven A. Cook of Foreign Policy argued that Turkey had not only shifted its axis but had dared to a challenge the US:

It is hard to admit, but after six decades of strategic cooperation, Turkey and the United States are becoming strategic competitors -- especially in the Middle East. This is the logical result of profound shifts in Turkish foreign and domestic politics and changes in the international system.

Some tried to find a formula for Turkey's "shift". On Thursday, Turkish daily Hurriyet asked whether there would be a "Middle East Union" under Turkey's leadership in the future. This would build on a joint declaration signed among Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria, seeking to lift visas and increase the level of cooperation in the fields of energy, health, agriculture, trade and customs.

Let me be blunt with you and with those who are wringing their hands. There has been no change in Turkey's axis.

Ankara's ultimate destination is still full membership in the European Union. Turkey's efforts and regional diplomatic initiatives are a part of its economic development and a part of its struggle to turn into a "strategic" mid-power which can help (re)shape the region.

The tension between a mid-power in Ankara and an American strategic partner --- a Middle East "spearhead" --- in Israel is the outcome of a power struggle between two allies at a time when the latter is under pressures and the benefits of "direct friendly support" of Washington are being seriously being questioned, inside and outside the US. The perception arises that Turkey is trying to fill the space Israel has left/will be forced to leave.

In the context of Turkey's economic boom and diplomatic manoeuvres to increase its credibility in the region, the  complicating factor is that its part to the European Union is currently blocked. Out of 34 chapters to be confirmed to accept Turkey as a part of the Union, only 12 chapters have been addressed so far. Of the other 22, 17 are being blocked by other countries --- eight alone by Cyprus.

The lesson to take from this dead end is crystal-clear: without political concessions on Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, there will be no European Union in the future for Turkey. So Ankara is not only  trying to gain time by looking to its back garden but also trying to knock on Europe's door with an increased credibility.

At the end of the day, Ankara's manoeuvres are not a new invention but the reflection of an active political agenda. As the president of the Washington-based American-Turkish Council, retired Ambassador James Holmes, said, "Turkey is expanding its interests, rather than isolating itself."

The current international alignments are suitable to Turkey's interests, since Washington needs Ankara more than other countries. That is not because of the political swamp in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also because of the ongoing diplomatic track with Iran and Syria, in the aftermath of Bush the Junior's imperial policies and Israel's perceived aggression in the region. Indeed, engagement and diplomacy is preferable to Washington rather than confrontations that could dynamite Obama's  "change", slapping aside unclenched fists and preventing a settlement between Israel and Ramallah.

There are limits to this political agenda. Although Ankara is ready with an economic surplus to deliver to its neighbours, it has not solved its own problems.

The weakest chain of the "Zero Problem" policy rattled in Turkey's relations with Armenia. Ankara couldn't break through long-standing fearsin the face of threats over energy supplies from the "little brother" Azerbaijan.

And, within Turkey, thousands of Kurdish children are in prisons and more officials of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are arrested. Indeed, the war with the Kurdish separatist group PKK is accelerating day-by-day since the Erdogan Government see the Kurdish political movement as a "rival".

And, of course, there are always the Armenian "genocide" issue and the Cyprus problem...

Another limit is Israel . West Jerusalem still means more than a regional power to Washington, remaining and a "friend" and a nuclear "democratic" power. Indeed, Washington sorted out the most recent Flotilla problem and gave a green light to Tel Aviv for an internal inquiry into the violence on the Mavi Marmara. Israel is not discredited in the eyes of Washington just because of a few days, not when military/intelligence relations are indispensable for both sides.

Still, if Ankara can show progress in its Kurdish and Cyprus issues in the near future along with continuing diplomacy advances in the region and a move back from blunter discourse towards Israel, it can continue increasing both its credibility to use as leverage against the EU and to promote its strategic importance to Washington.

Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan

The repercussions continue in Turkish politics from Israel's bloody intervention against the Freedom Flotilla. According to the Turkish daily Radikal, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday:

I do not think that Hamas is a terrorist organization. I said the same thing to the United States. I am still of the same opinion. They are Palestinians in resistance, fighting for their own land.

They [Hamas] won the election. You are always talking about democracy. You’ll never let Hamas rule. What kind of democracy is this?

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Turkey Inside Line: Parliament, President, and People Condemn Israel

Hamas was officially hosted in Ankara in 2006 and Erdogan has continuously urged leaders of other states to recognize and give a chance to Hamas as a legitimate political party. He continued yesterday:

I am calling on the whole Turkey, the whole world once more from here, in Konya; The fate of Jerusalem is not different that of Istanbul. The fate of Gaza is not different than that of Ankara. The fate of Ramallah, Nablus, Refah, Cenin and Beytullahim is ever never different than that of Konya. Even if the world keeps silence, we will not!

They [Israelis] saw innocent babies as a threat. They massacred those innocent babies in their mothers' arms, like those terrorists [PKK] here. They massacred those innocent children on their bicycles. They are saw students, youngsters as a threat. Those children threw stones and they threw phosphorus bombs. And, unfortunately, the world is standing behind the ones who used phosphorus bombs.

It has nothing to do with Hamas, al-Qaeda, anti-Semitism. Do not deceive others. Be honest! Our problem has to do with Israel's tyrannizing state terror method.

Then, Erdogan left made his rhetorical mark:

This is an explicit example of Israel's ill psychology, paranoia and trauma. They say "the world is hypocritical to us". The one who is hypocritical, liar and proud of murderers is you! You know killing well. I am talking to them in their language. The sixth command in Torah says "You shall not kill." Let me say it in your language, I am saying in Hebrew: "Lo Tir'tsach."

Meanwhile, the Turkish Prime Minister's "Kurdish Initiative" continues. Massoud Barzani, president of the Regional Kurdish Administration in Iraq, was in Turkey for the firs time in nine years.

Barzani talked to Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).The Iraqi Kurdish leader said that he welcomed and appreciated the "Kurdish Initiative", a government-led project to grant more rights to ethnic Kurds in Turkey. He also told Erdogan he would give support to Turkey's fight against PKK, the separatist/terrorist organisation. Davutoglu called Barzani "Kak Barzani" ("Barzani brother").

Demirtas said:

We expressed to Barzani our satisfaction with developing peaceful relations between Turkey and the [Iraqi] Kurdistan region. Barzani underlined how important his visit is and he said their relations with Turkey would be more robust.

BDP believes that, with good relations between neighbors and the Kurdistan region, Turkey must provide peace in the region. We hope this visit will contribute to peace in the region."

We do politics as an opposition party. We say this initiative does not lead to democratization and radical reforms. Barzani has his own views but we stand at the same point.

As Barzani was holding talks with politicians, his representatives met with Zafer Caglayan, state minister responsible for foreign trade. Caglayan said a delegation of businessmen would pay a visit to Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan to seek trade and investment possibilities.

Sinan Celebi, trade and industry authority for the regional administration, added, “Everything is ready and there is potential. Let’s cooperate. We expect Turkish companies to invest as soon as possible. The doors are wide open." The visit is expected to take place in July.

So Davutoglu's "zero-problem" strategy is still on track. Indeed, Erdogan might be interested in boosting northern Iraq's economy in returnfor political and military support against PKK. This would diminish the dominance of BDP amongst Kurdish people inside Turkey. if not the party itself can be "tamed".

Still, the ripples of Israel and Gaza affect even this issue. When asked ababout Erdogan's words accusing Israel of "state terrorism", the deputy chairman of BDP, Bengi Yildiz, said: "That is true, Turkey is applying to state terrorism to Kurds too".