Turkey Inside Line: Israel's Unmanned Planes, Iran's Uranium, Trouble with the EU, and More

Turkish-Made Drones to Take Over from Israeli Herons?: Turkish sources stated that the design, detail production, and assembly of the Turkish MALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle have been completed and first test flights will be carried out done in the second half of 2010.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRQtM6xzRDI[/youtube]

Turkey Video Special: Prime Minister Erdogan’s 50 Minutes on US Television (29 June)

Director-General Muharrem Dortkasli said, "We can sell this vehicle for use by many friends and allies. That is our project."

Turkey's Call for Implementation of Iran's Nuclear Swap Deal: Turkey has called on Iran and Western powers to implement the nuclear fuel swap agreement, starting talks as soon as possible.

On Monday, responding to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s remarks that Iran would not join discussions until late August, Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Burak Özügergin said:

If they do not sit down and talk, we will be in a worse-off situation this time next year. Time is working against a solution.

We would like this swap deal to be implemented and for negotiations to be held to resolve outstanding issues to secure a peaceful settlement to the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program.

Visa Requirements Lifted with Indonesia: On Tuesday, following a meeting between Turkish President Abdullah Gül and Indonesian President Susilo Bambangu Yudhoyono, agreement was reached to lift mutual visa requirements.

The approach on visas has been a major foreign policy strategy for the Erdogan Government. Requirements have been lifted with Syria, Pakistan, Albania, Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, Russia, Iran, and other countries.

Turkey and Indonesia also signed eight agreements including cooperation between defense industries, cultural exchange programmes, and sea transportation . The two presidents agreed to increase the trade volume from the current $1.5 billion to $10 billion in the medium-term.

Turkey-EU Relations: Diplomatic sources expect the next chapter of European Union negotiations, focusing on food safety, veterinary safety, and phytosanitation, to be opened at an intergovernmental conference in Brussels on Wednesday.

There are 35 chapters that Turkey needs to fulfill to attain EU membership. Twelve have been opened, but 18 of the other 23 have been blocked, including eight relating to Ankara'ss failure to open its borders to EU member Cyprus.

Turkish Foreign Minister Spokesman Burak Özügergin said:

We expect consistency from the EU. You don’t open negotiation chapters but then say, [The] axis is shifted." The EU should be coherent.

There are 18 chapters which are blocked and we expect Belgium's rotating EU presidency to remove defects caused by the EU in the following period. The EU should consider where it wants to go with Turkey. Turkey recognizes EU membership as a strategic target.

Turkey-Russia Competition: Following the G20 summit in Toronto over the weekend, Turkey and Russia have opened a competition to host the bloc’s 2013 meeting.

Arkady Dvorkovich, a consultant to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, said :

As all we know, the next summit in 2011 will be held in South Korea. The 2012 summit will be held in Mexico. Russia wants to host the 2013 gathering. On Sunday, the Russian government made its application. We know that Turkey has also already applied.

China This Week: Hu Visits Canada, The Currency Issue, Building Ties with Australia

Hu's Canadian visit & G20 summit: Chinese President Hu Jintao left Beijing for Canada on Wednesday to pay a state visit and to attend the 4th Group of 20 (G20) summit scheduled for 26-27 June in Toronto.

Strained ties between Beijing and Ottawa started to warm when Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited China last December. Ottawa had aggressively criticized Beijing for its human rights record, but after the financial meltdown last year, its tone softened slightly. The Harper Government, asserting that "new global realities demand a modernized Canada-China relationship", began to downplay rights-related issues.

Sources said the two countries are expected to sign contracts on energy, telecommunication industries, and tourism.

Looking towards the G20 summit, China said the meeting should focus on the recovery of world economy rather than a specific issue such as the RMB (yuan) exchange rate.

The fluctuations of the Chinese currency: The yuan rose by more than 0.4 percent --- the biggest rise in a day since it was revalued in 2005 --- on Monday, close to hitting its trading limit of 0.5 percent. But the currency on Tuesday then went through its biggest decline since December 2008, weakening 0.23 percent to 6.8136 per dollar.

"The dollar has been strong on the international markets in the past two days and it's normal for the yuan to weaken against the dollar today," said Liu Dongliang, currency analyst of China Merchants Bank. The yuan will not rise continually and strongly, contrary to the expectations of some US politicians and industry players, Liu added.

The Fair Currency Coalition, an alliance of US industry, agriculture, and worker organizations, urged the US Congress to pass effective legislation on the yuan issue, despite China's pledge to make its currency more flexible.

Brenda L. Foster, President of American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, warned that the yuan policy move will not significantly reduce the US trade deficit with China.

Chinese VP wants trade deal with Australia: China is keen to strike a free trade pact with Australia soon and opposes any return to protectionism in response to the global economic crisis, China's vice-president, Xi Jinping, said Monday.

His visit to Australia has focused on its burgeoning exports of iron ore, coal and natural gas that are supporting the expansion of Chinese manufacturing.

China has been quick to fill a slump in investment in the Australian resource sector since the global downturn. But Australia is cautious about allowing Beijing-controlled companies to buy the mines that are commanding record prices because of Chinese demand.

China is Austria's biggest trading partner, biggest export market and biggest importer. Despite the global financial crisis, Australia's exports to China rose by 31 percent in 2009.

South China floods toll continues to rise: Heavy rains and floods in south and central China killed 211 people and left 119 others missing as of 4 pm Wednesday, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

More than 29 million people in southern and central provinces have been affected by the inclement weather, with about 2.4 million people evacuated, a statement from the ministry said.

The floods have caused economic losses of around 42.12 billion yuan ($6.2 billion), with more than 1.6 million hectares of farmland flooded and about 195,000 houses collapsing.

China’s auditors find local misuse of  funds: According to a report to the 15th session of the Standing Committee of the 11th National People's Congress, the country's local governments had run up bank loans totaling 2.79 trillion yuan ($410.3 billion) by the end of last year, most of it to fund infrastructure construction and to help pay for government stimulus package projects.

Auditors also found more than 20 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) of policy loans were misused by policy-based financial institutions

Funds embezzled from public finances totaling more than 94.116 billion yuan ($ 13.82 billion) had been recovered or returned. More than 790 people in connection to the cases had been investigated.

Tariff concessions for 33 countries: The Ministry of Finance said  that China would grant zero tariff status to 4,762 categories of commodities now imported from 33 of the world's least developed countries from 1 July.

The list include 26 African countries and seven from other regions. Aquatic products, textiles, farm produce, glass products, steel, and minerals are to be exempted from tariffs.

Since 2001, China has put 41 of the world's least developed countries on the zero-tariff list.

Hong Kong, Ireland sign tax pact

Hong Kong signed its 13th comprehensive agreement for the avoidance of double taxation (CDTA) with Ireland on Tuesday.

Hong Kong's Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, K C Chan, said: "The agreement will encourage Hong Kong enterprises to leverage on the success of Irish companies in the areas of technology, research and development, while facilitating Irish enterprises to tap into the Asian market, particularly the vast Mainland market, using Hong Kong as a gateway."

Hong Kong is actively seeking to establish a network of CDTAs with major trading and investment partners, and has concluded them with partners including Belgium, Thailand, Vietnam and the United Kingdom.

Chinese boat seized by Indonesia: A Chinese fishing boat, registered to South China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, and its crew of nine were detained by an Indonesian gunship Tuesday in the South China Sea.

After negotiations, the boat was released the same day. However, eight fishermen who had been taken aboard the Indonesian ship were injured, with one seriously. A preliminary investigation by the region's border defense department showed there might be abuse involved, said Qin Yongjun, spokesman with Guangxi's public security department.

Afghanistan: What Happens When Our Allies "Do More"? (Mull)

EA correspondent Josh Mull is the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. He also writes at Rethink Afghanistan:

If you've been following the recent military operations in Helmand and Kandahar, you've likely noticed that it's been something of an unmitigated disaster. And not just a disaster in the sense that most of our military efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan have been disasters, this is the make-or-break moment for the US counterinsurgency strategy. My colleague Derrick Crowe writes:

No reporter should let Secretary Gates, General McChrystal, or President Obama off the hook in the coming months regarding the make-or-break nature of the Kandahar operation for their (poorly) chosen COIN strategy in Afghanistan. As described in the report to Congress, Kandahar/Helmand is the main effort, and everything else is either a “shaping,” “supporting,” or “economy of force (read: leftovers)” operation. Kandahar/Helmand is the COIN strategy. If ISAF fails there, it fails, period.

Fail there, fail everywhere. Couldn't be any more clear than that. And that's not his characterization, he's citing the people in charge. Derrick then offers some advice:

Members of Congress considering funding the ongoing Kandahar/Helmand/escalation strategy should read these comments from Secretary Gates with alarm. He’s hedging and trying to set expectations because he knows the COIN effort is in serious, “bleeding ulcer” trouble. Congress should save us all a whole lot of trouble and vote against the $33 billion war spending supplemental under consideration.

Right, when you pressure your representative to block the funding, they need to be made fully aware that our strategy is broken and ruinous. But the problem is that it won't be that easy. Politicians can be very slippery, even the ones we like, and they'll try to shift the blame on to someone else. "No, it's not the strategy," they'll say, "it's our allies. Our allies need to do more."

The folks on Capitol Hill are big believers in Counterinsurgency doctrine, and as we've seen, COIN is not a doctrine, but an ideology that can never be proven or dis-proven. Communism isn't the problem, it's "human nature" that fails. Conservatism can't fail, only you can fail to be conservative. And our COIN strategy can't fail, it has to be the fault of our allies.

But that's wrong. Our allies have been doing more, a lot more. NATO,  Afghan President Karzai, and Pakistan have all been participating in President Obama's escalation strategy, and that is only making the problem worse. If we see what it is our allies are actually doing, we'll find that the COIN defenders are wrong. Our counterinsurgency strategy, the idea that occupation and war have anything remotely to do with stabilizing and developing a nation, is the problem. The US will try to shift the blame onto our allies, but as we'll see, Derrick is right: it's our war that is the problem.

We'll start with our friends in NATO, Canada. We've talked about the new Canadian strategy before, but their "signature project" is especially important to note. They're working on a huge water distribution system in Kandahar province, and if completed, could provide a sustainable development for Afghans to maintain and operate on their own without Western assistance, that supposedly being the overarching goal of our mission in Afghanistan. However, the project has hit a bit of snag [emphasis mine]:

The $50-million Dahla Dam irrigation project, touted as Canada’s best chance for a lasting legacy in Afghanistan, has all but stalled as its lead contractor, a partnership involving the Canadian engineering giant SNC Lavalin, battles for control against a sometimes violent Afghan security firm widely believed to be loyal to Afghanistan’s ruling Karzai family, insiders close to the project say.[...]

Foremost among the setbacks, insiders say, was a dramatic confrontation on Feb. 20, when rising tensions between Canadian security officials hired to oversee the project and members of Watan Risk Management, a group of Afghan mercenaries with close ties to the Karzai family, culminated in a “Mexican standoff” — the guns hired to protect the project actually turned on each other in a hair-trigger confrontation.[...]

“Ever since, the project has been basically held hostage by the Karzai mafia, who are using ‘security concerns’ to stall the work. They are able to put fear in the heart of the Canadian contractors, telling them ‘There is evil outside the gates that will eat you.’ The longer they delay, the more money the Afghan security teams make. The Canadians have good intentions but that is the reality.”

Oops, it looks like the Canadians tried to do more and accidentally bumped into another one of our allies, President Karzai. He's got militia in Kandahar busily working on another part of our COIN strategy, extending the control of the central Kabul government, the "Host Nation" as it's called.

Only Karzai is a criminal with no legitimacy, so he has to extend central government control the only way you can expand an illegitimate, criminal enterprise: violence, intimidation, coercion, all are in play here. Karzai is also desperately dependent on western welfare, so if he expects to remain in power, he'll need to drag out western development projects as long as he possibly can. If "security concerns" will delay a project, then you make your own if you have to. Our strategy requires him to expand his mafia empire; what else is he supposed to do?

And what about the Pakistani military? Our politicians are constantly whining for them to do more for our awful strategy. Well, they are doing more. Here's what that looks like:

"I lost my sense when I reached the door of my house and saw and heard the crying of my close neighbors and relatives--as if hell fell on me. When I saw people putting the dead bodies of my children, parents, and other relatives in bed I couldn't bear it anymore and fell on the ground..."

- A 25-year-old man who lost nine family members when two shells fired by security forces hit his house during the battle of Loi Sam (FATA).

Nice job "protecting the civilian population" there by the Pakistani army --- those innocent women and children will never again be threatened by the Taliban. And the army's "doing more" has the same results as the US "population-centric" strategy of killing civilians by the houseful across the border in Afghanistan. The military assaults legitimize the insurgency and turn the population against the government. That works out great for the other part of our strategy, showering Pakistan's military dictatorship with money and weapons.

Pakistan's army supports the Taliban as "strategic depth" in its war with India. As long as the Taliban are empowered by US and Pakistani military assaults, they survive to be used against India in proxy wars spanning Afghanistan, Baluchistan, Kashmir, and really most of the sub-continent. And as long as those extremist militants are there to threaten, the US has an excuse to give Pakistan...tada! Money and weapons to use in military assaults in the tribal regions. See how this works? Our allies in the Pakistani military are working our COIN strategy with everything they've got, and it's going great for them. Want Pakistan to do more? Gladly.

Our allies are working hard. Canada, one of our last friends in NATO, took our notion of development seriously and are replacing their military with aid projects. But Karzai is also working hard to extend the authority of the host nation, and that requires him to derail development in favor if violence, insecurity, and criminality. Pakistan's army is also working hard to clear its tribal area sanctuaries, so the Taliban can be safe elsewhere to engage in proxy war with India, and that includes in Afghanistan. And then we're back at the beginning, with the US then escalating its occupation to fight the Taliban.

The problem is not NATO, Karzai, or Pakistan. They're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. You might reason that Karzai and Pakistan's military despots aren't good choices for allies, but that misses the point. They are the strategy. And that strategy is the problem, not action or lack of action from our allies.

You're going to see this meme more and more in the coming weeks and months. As we see from Derrick's reporting, the military is well aware that it's failing big time in Afghanistan. So rather than admitting our COIN strategy is a flaming wreck, look for the blame to fall on our allies. Folks who talk about the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan will be elevated, so look forward to [re-]learning old factoids such as that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence  helped create the Taliban and so forth. The White House will continue to pretend to be outraged and confused with Karzai, even though they know full well he's corrupt and illegitimate. And of course, the US will continue to gripe that NATO allies won't send more troops, even though it's the non-military development projects that work.

Don't fall for it. You can demand that Congress block any more funding for the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Cut off the COIN strategy at its source, the money. You can demand that congress abandon Karzai and push for free and fair elections in Afghanistan, so that the central government has legitimacy. You can demand that the US engage with and empower the elected civilian government of Pakistan, rather than  its military despots like General Kiyani. And you can demand they support non-military projects like our allies, Canada. Don't let them get away with pushing the blame off.

The problem lies squarely with the US war.