Israel Analysis: Dark Clouds Over Netanyahu Before Washington Visit (Yenidunya)

On Tuesday, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Labor Party colleagues that there was close and intimate security cooperation between Israel and the US, with both parties waiting for the next steps in the diplomatic arena to ensure a long-term “special security relationship” and defend Israel’s military superiority in the region. Barak added that only a “decisive Israeli effort” to break the diplomatic stalemate over Palestine “can free Israel from the international siege.”

Later in the day, in a conference at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, Barak talked about withdrawal and disengagement from Gaza, predicting: “Israel will have to take additional unilateral steps.”

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In advance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with President Barack Obama, this was a warning to the Government.

There has been speculation that Labor could leave the coalition if Netanyahu failed to control the coalition or to expand it by bringing in the "centrist" Kadima. Barak underlined the significance of the freeze on Israeli settlements in the West Bank,  set to expire at the end of September, and US mid-term Congressional elections in November, saying that the next few months will be “certainly important”.

Despite Barak's warning, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman showed no change in his party's agenda: "There is absolutely no chance of reaching a Palestinian state until the year 2012. One can dream and imagine, but we are far from reaching an agreement."

It is not just Lieberman but also Israeli conservatives hindering Netanyahu's bargaining position. Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat approved the plan calling for the razing of 22 Palestinian homes to make room for a tourist center in the Silwan neighborhood of East Jerusalem.

According to documents obtained by Haaretz, the department which inspects building plans before  submission to the planning committee found no less than 250 defects in the Silwan plan. Just a week before the plan was approved, Jerusalem city engineer Shlomo Eshkol submitted a list of 30 criticisms of the plan and demanded significant changes.

The Jerusalem municipality's legal adviser, Yossi Havilio, also found that the plan did not meet legal standards. To get around the difficulty, Barkat privately hired a lawyer to oversee the plan on behalf of the municipality.

All of these internal complications arise as US special envoy George Mitchell, before the fifth round of talks due to start on Thursday, has expressed to Netanyahu his wish to see more movement by Israel on core issues.

A senior U.S. administration official told Haaretz : "We want things to move faster." Then he added, "To date there has been insufficient progress."

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Following the approval of the demolition of 22"illegal" Arab homes in the Silwan neighbourhood of East Jerusalem, the Jerusalem District Planning and Building Committee is set to approve a master plan, the first since 1959, calling for the expansion of Jewish neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. The proposal is largely based on construction on privately-owned Arab property. The committee will give those who object to the plan 60 days to submit their reservations.

According to the non-government organisation Ir Amim, while the plan calls for 13,500 new residential units in East Jerusalem for Palestinians, updated demographic studies indicate that this amount barely represents half the minimum needs for the Arab population by 2030. Ir Amim also claims the plan allows for Palestinian construction in the north and south of the capital  but barely provides for an expansion of Arab construction projects in the centre of the city.

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On Sunday, about 150 protesters clashed with the settlers' security guards in Silwan. Six Border Police officers were wounded by stones, and dozens of women and children suffered from tear gas inhalation after the Israeli forces began firing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House on 6 July, after a fifth round of indirect talks between the US envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, Israel, and the Palestinians Authority.

Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Washington last week and met Vice President Joe Biden, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. On Sunday, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen met with Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. Pentagon and Defense Ministry officials also held talks in Israel within the framework of the two countries' strategic dialogue.

Israel's ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren,was also in Israel to give a briefing at the Foreign Ministry. According to Israeli diplomats, Oren said relations between the two countries are not in a crisis because a crisis is something that passes; however, using a geological analogy, Oren said, "Relations are in the state of a tectonic rift in which continents are drifting apart." (Oren has now denied he made the remark.)

Yediot Ahronot's Shimon Shiffer claims that Obama will demand that Netanyahu lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip entirely and give permission for Palestinians to leave the Strip freely through Israeli border crossings. If true, then the Israeli Prime Minister may use the East Jerusalem expansion as a bargaining card, trading it for some conditions on the lifting of the blockade.

Israel-Palestine: Plan to Raze 22 More Palestinian Houses in East Jerusalem

Israel's efense Minister Ehud Barak, reacting to the decision of the Jerusalem municipal planning committee to destroy 22 houses in the Arab neighborhood of Silwan in East Jerusalem, has criticised, "The Jerusalem municipality and the planning committee have shown a lack of common sense and sense of timing – and not for the first time."

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For Jerusalem mayor Nir Barakt has said the razing of 22 Palestinian homes --- which the authority claims were built illegally and construction of a park would attract tourism, but local Palestinian residents claim that the purpose is to increase the hold of Jewish settlers over the neighbourhood. Haaretz claimed that an additional 66 homes built by Jewish residents, without the proper permits, would receive approval retroactively.

Barkat quickly reacted to the Defense Minister:

Instead of helping the municipality strengthen the city and confront the serious neglect inherited over many years in the eastern part of the city, the defense minister acts without checking the facts.

The new plan for Silwan allows for the addition of thousands of housing units for the Arab sector and the resolution of hundreds of construction violations. Barak should be one of the primary supporters of the plan.

"This is expressly the kind of step that we think undermines trust that is fundamental to making progress in the proximity talks," said State Department spokesman Phillip Crowley.

Gaza Latest: Israel Warns Iranian & Lebanese Flotillas; UN Calls for Lifting of Blockade

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Cabinet decision to ease the land blockade, allowing more products into the Gaza Strip, would weaken Hamas's hand while forging a ecurity consensus against the "satellites" of Iran and Lebanon, Hamas and Hezbollah. He said:

This is the best decision for Israel because it pulls Hamas’s main propaganda claim out from under it, and allows us and our friends in the world to unite around our real security needs.

The ayatollahs’ regime in Iran stands behind the Iranian boats. Hezbullah stands behind the Lebanese flotilla, even though they are trying to hide it. One must understand that these are attempts by Iran and Hezbullah to break the naval and security blockade of Hamas – and that is why yesterday’s cabinet decision was so important.

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A day later, Iran's state television reported that the ship Infants of Gaza would sail Sunday for Gaza, carrying 1,100 tons of relief supplies and 10 pro-Palestinian activists. Egyptian transportation official Mohammad Abdelwahab said Cairo would not prevent the Iranian ship from passing through the Suez Canal.

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi responded with two important points. He said that Israel must not allow Gaza to become an Iranian port and added: "For those who are truly concerned about the [humanitarian] situation in Gaza and wants to bring medical supplies, they are welcome to dock in Ashdod. We will examine [the cargo] and let it in if needed."

Commenting on the Navy probe on the attack on the Freedom Flotilla, Ashkenazi said that "Following initial investigations, the fighters acted superbly under the circumstances."

In Lebanon,  the Naji al-Ali has received Lebanon's green light to depart for Cyprus. The second ship, Mariam, is still awaiting permission.

Noting Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak's  assertion on Monday that Lebanon would be responsible for any "violent and dangerous confrontation", Lebanese Foreign Minister Ali Asham responded on Tuesday that "Israel will be held fully responsible for any attack on Lebanon".

Barak also urged UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to shelve plans for a UN-backed independent investigation. He said:

As long as new flotillas are in the preparation, it's probably better to leave it [a UN investigation] on the shelf for a certain time.

We are moving ahead with our independent investigation, which we believe is clearly independent, reliable, credible and should be allowed to work.

As for the blockade, Christopher Gunness, spokesman of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, said to Reuters that only a complete lifting of restrictions will satisfy the agency:

The Israeli strategy is to make the international community talk about a bag of cement here, a project there. We need full unfettered access through all the crossings.

The list of restricted goods is a moving target. We are never told this is banned and that is banned. Israel's blockade became a blockade against the UN.

The Quartet (the United States, European Union, Russia and the United Nations) continued to emphasise not only the "remaining unsustainable situation" in Gaza but also Israel's "legitimate security concerns".

On Tuesday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry joined the international community with a released statement saying that Israel's decision to ease the blockade on Gaza a "positive" but "insufficient" step.

Gaza Latest: Varied Reactions to Israel's "Eased" Blockade

Contrasting messages over Gaza: In an interview with the BBC, Syrian President Bashar Assad said that the attack of Israel's "pyromaniac government" on the Gaza aid flotilla increased the chances of war in the Middle East. However, the Quartet of the US, European Union, the UN, and Russia have welcomed Israel's decision to ease the blockade on the Gaza Strip on Thursday.

"The Secretary-General[Ban-Ki-Moon] is encouraged that the Israeli Government is reviewing its policy towards Gaza, and he hopes that today's decision by the Israeli security cabinet is a real step towards meeting needs in Gaza," said Martin Nesirky, the UN spokesman.

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Quartet Representative Tony Blair added: "I welcome the Government of Israel’s decision to liberalize the policy on Gaza."

However, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority were critical of Israel's decision. Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said that Israel's decision to allow more goods into the Gaza Strip was designed to "beautify" the blockade and mislead public opinion. He added:

The Palestinians are not asking for additional goods to be allowed into the Gaza Strip. Rather, they are demanding the complete lifting of the blockade and the reopening of all the border crossings, as well as freedom of movement for all people.

Chief Palestinian negotiator Dr. Saeb Erakat wrote to his e-mail list that ‘‘the Israeli security cabinet vote to ease its land blockade of the Gaza Strip is not sufficient’’ and continued:

With this decision, Israel attempts to make it appear that it has eased its four-year blockade and its even longer-standing access and movement restrictions imposed on the population of Gaza. In reality, the siege of the Gaza Strip, illegally imposed on Palestinians continues unabated.

The facts are that a siege against 1.5 million people in the Gaza Strip continues. Either Israel lifts the siege completely or it continues to violate international law and basic morality.

Israel has used a so-called “white” list of only 114 items allowed into the Gaza Strip. Palestinian basic needs requires at least 8,000 basic items that continue to be prohibited. These include essential materials for rebuilding and for waste-water treatment for the most basic living standards.

He added, “During the first three months of 2007 36,000 trucks entered the Gaza Strip compared to 3,600 trucks that have been permitted to enter during the first three months of 2010. Today, 90% of the Gaza Strip’s civilian population relies on the World Food Organization and the United Nations Relief Works Agency.’’

US envoy George Mitchell held separate meetings with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak Thursday as part of his fourth round of indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians. He told both leaders not to let day-to-day problems divert talks.

Diplomatic circles from Israel stated that the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, would have been forced to withdraw, following the flotilla crisis, if there had been direct negotiations. They also stated that Palestinian officials would be placed at border crossings into Gaza so Hamas would not be given credit for the easing of the blockade.