Afghanistan/McChrystal Watch: Petraeus Takes Over

1805 GMT: The official line, now reinforced by a McChrystal e-mail to press outlets, is that he resigned and was not fired.

1800 GMT: Two thoughts. 1) From the frying pan to the fire: David Petraeus is just as hostile as Stanley McChrystal to Obama's declared intention to withdraw troops by July 2011. 2) Who takes over Central Command and become Petraeus' military boss?

1751 GMT: Obama says, "It was a difficult decision I made today. Indeed it saddens me to lose the service of a soldier whom I have come to respect and admire." But this decision was necessary "for the strength of our military and our nation".

And with that Obama exits, taking no questions.

NEW Afghanistan/McChrystal Analysis: Hyperventilating Over the Tip, Missing the (Petraeus) Iceberg
NEW Afghanistan Revealed: US Hands Over Millions of $$…To “Warlords” (DeYoung)
Afghanistan Special: McChrystal and the Trashing of the President (US Military v. Obama, Chapter 472)
Afghanistan Document: The McChrystal Profile (Hastings — Rolling Stone)

1750 GMT: Obama is flanked during the statement by Vice President Biden --- one of the targets of the McChrystal teams in the Rolling Stone interview ("Vice President Bite Me") --- and General Petraeus.

Obama is now on the section of the statement on how super-fantastic Petraeus is.

1749 GMT: Obama now reinforcing his play for support by stressing decision was necessary because of responsibility to troops and demand to defeat Al Qa'eda: "Our nation is at war. We face a very tough fight in Afghanistan....We are going to break the Taliban's momentum. We are going to rebuild Afghanistan."

1743 GMT: Obama begins his statement. Have accepted McChrystal resignation with "regret" but "with certainty" that is right thing to do for US troops and war effort.

Obama stresses that decision not because of any difference on policy with McChrystal or "any sense of personal insult". He expresses "great admiration" for McChrystal and his service in Iraq and Afghanistan as "one of America's finest soldiers".

But "war is bigger than one man or woman", and "this is right decision to make". McChrystal's conduct in Rolling Stone interview "did not meet the standard that should be set by a commanding general. It undermines the civilian control of the military, the core of our democratic system, and it erodes the trust that is necessary for our team to work together to achieve our objectives in Afghanistan."

1725 GMT: CNN and Associated Press are reporting from sources that General David Petraeus, currently the head of Central Command, will take over the Afghanistan command from General McChrystal. This follows earlier leaks to CNN and NBC that Obama would "fire" McChrystal, who met the President for 30 minutes this morning but left the White House and did not attend a strategy meeting on Afghanistan.

That is pretty stunning, not because McChrystal is out but because Petraeus is effectively demoting himself from moving from Central Command --- where he is currently McChrystal's boss --- to the Afghanistan role.

Obama is making a statement within the next few minutes.

1430 GMT: The meeting between President Obama and General McChrystal, which lasted about 30 minutes, has concluded. The Afghanistan strategy meeting at the White House is at 1535 GMT --- will the general return for the discussion?

1325 GMT: Getting to the Important Point. A prominent activist ponders, "If McChrystal f**** up public outreach to Americans this often, how is he going to win hearts and minds of Afghans?"

1320 GMT: The Hot Tip? A "senior a

dministration official" has told CNN that the White House has asked the Pentagon to make a list of possible replacements for McChrystal.

1305 GMT: Beyond the Drama. A couple of commentaries to note, alongside our analysis this morning, that usefully note the policy issues beyond the McChrystal "crisis". Matthew Yglesias, drawing from his colleague Max Bergmann, writes:

The military can easily continue to pursue a McChrystal-style strategy on both the Afghan and US media fronts under different leadership. The more important question facing the White House is how they feel about that. A determined president will always prevail over the opinions of generals, but the political costs of attempting to do so can be quite high since military officials have a lot of prestige in American society.

(My caveat is the question as to whether Obama has ever --- when the crunch came --- been "determined [enough to]...prevail over the opinions of generals.")

And Juan Cole puts the challenge --- that will remain long after the Rolling Stone gathers moss --- to the President:

Obama needs to define an attainable goal in Afghanistan and then execute it swiftly. As it is, when he is pressed about what in the world we are doing there, he retreats into Bushisms: “So I want the American people to understand that we have a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future. That’s the goal that must be achieved.”

Well that isn’t a good enough reason to be in Afghanistan. There is no al-Qaeda to speak of in Afghanistan. And although insurgents and Taliban probably control about 20 percent of the country, they have not let al-Qaeda set up shop in their territory.

1255 GMT: On Day 2 of the Great McChrystal Balls-Up (with the reminder that we've posted the important story --- the US military v. Obama --- beyond the media noise), here's the latest....

General Stanley McChrystal, after his recall to Washington over his profile in Rolling Stone magazine, is now in the Pentagon for discussions before his meeting at the White House with President Obama. On the way into the building, he denied rumours --- spread by Joe Klein of Time magazine and picked up by other outlets from CBS News to Britain's Daily Telegraph --- that he had offered his resignation.

McChrystal told reporters, ""Come on, you know better than that.  No!"

Kyrgyzstan: At Least 124 Dead, Up to 100,000 Flee (Harding/AP)

Earlier this year we covered the uprising in Kyrgyzstan and the replacement of the Bakiyev Government with a new administration. Unfortunately, that is far from the end of the story, as clashes in the southern part of the country, near the Uzbekistan border, have taken dozens of lives and displaced tens of thousands.

Luke Harding and Associated Press reported for The Guardian of London late Monday:

Kyrgyzstan was tonight in the grip of a humanitarian crisis after more than 100,000 minority Uzbeks, fleeing Kyrgyz mobs in the south of the country, gathered on the Uzbekistan border.

Uzbek community leaders said hundreds of Uzbeks had been slaughtered in five days of mob attacks, which began last Thursday in the city of Osh then spread rapidly to the nearby town of Jalal-Abad and other surrounding areas.

The official toll was put at 124 killed and more than 1,600 injured. But according to Associated Press at least 200 Uzbeks had already been buried. The Red Cross said its delegates saw about 100 bodies being buried in just one cemetery.

Much of Osh, the country's second biggest city, was still burning, witnesses said today, with Uzbek areas razed to the ground, and homes, shops and supermarkets destroyed. Gunfire was reported in the Cheremushi district. Residents trying to flee the city were taken by helicopter to the airport.

The road to the city passes an Uzbek village, where residents, defending their homes from Kyrgyz mobs, were opening fire on vehicles. The situation in Jalal-Abad, which erupted in violence on Saturday remained tense, despite apparent negotiations between local Uzbek and Kyrgyz leaders.

Uzbek homes in the town's Sputnik district were in flames, Kyrgyzstan's AKIpress news agency reported. It said gangs of Kyrgyz youths were roaming from house to house looking for ethnic Uzbeks. Several had written on their arms: "If we see an Uzbek we will shoot him." Witnesses said one gang seized the editor of the local Uzbek newspaper. There were also numerous kidnappings.

Jallahitdin Jililatdinov, head of the Uzbek National Centre, told AP that at least 100,000 Uzbeks fleeing the attacks were desperately trying to cross into Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan's government tonight confirmed that 45,000 had made it across the border.

Hundreds of Uzbek refugees were also stuck in a no-man's land at a border crossing near Jalal-Abad.

Russia, the UN and the US have begun a humanitarian relief operation, while Uzbekistan has started setting up camps for refugees. Several planes with WHO medical supplies arrived today at Osh airport. Witnesses said that most of those who fled were woman, children and elderly people. Uzbekistan said many had gunshot wounds.

"Tent camps will be put up in the border between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan for many ethnic Uzbeks who have left their homes following riots in Osh," said Kyrgyzstan's ombudsman, Tursunbek Atun. He conceded that no temporary facilities had been built, and that some refugees were sleeping in the open at the Dostuk crossing, a few miles from Osh and its Uzbek suburbs.

Kyrgyzstan's interim government, which took over after the president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was overthrown in April, has so far been powerless to stop the violence. Uzbeks have supported the new government while many in the south have backed the ousted Bakiyev. What began last month as a counter-revolution by disgruntled Bakiyev supporters quickly turned into ethnic cleansing.

The violence now threatens the stability of the whole central Asian region, with a full-blown conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan a possibility. More immediately, if the interim government fails to reassert control over the south, Kyrgyzstan could split in half, or cease to exist as an independent state, experts suggest.

Over the weekend Russia turned down a plea by Kyrgyzstan's interim leader, Roza Otunbayeva, to dispatch peace-keeping troops to Osh.

Today the Kremlin said it did not rule out a possible intervention. The statement followed a meeting in Moscow of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Russian-dominated Nato-style security bloc made up of former Soviet republics.

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