Iran Snap Analysis: The Wave of Economic Discontent?

Yesterday's breaking news for many outside was the latest statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi linking criticism of Western sanctions against Iran with criticism of the Government's mismanagement of foreign policy and the economy.

Inside Iran, however, the most significant incident appeared to be the continuing furour, including strikes, in the Tehran Bazaar over proposed tax riss. The immediate reversal of a 70% increase may have stemmed discontent, but it does so at the risk of making the Government look vulnerable.

The story beyond --- which I'm not sure has been picked up --- is that this clash may be only a foreshadowing of political difficulties. The Government has declared, after many stop-start moments, that the implementation of the subsidy reduction plan will begin this autumn. But, if as that it is likely to lead to price rises for essentials such as food and energy, are we only at the beginning of a wave of economic discontent?

And what connection, if any, will that have with the Green Movement and opposition on other fronts?

Comments

[Bozorg]

"The immediate reversal of a 70% increase may have stemmed discontent, but it does so at the risk of making the Government look vulnerable."

Stemmed discontent? There are reports that the strike continued today, and has spread to Tabriz and Mashad.

[Bozorg]

Hmmm...I think today might have been some sort of religious holiday...

[Baz]

Could somebody please explain ( to an outsider) the impact/effect of Bazaar strikes - or indeed the importance of the Bazaars themselves in Iranian sociey. I have read that they are very important and significant - but all I see ( as an outsider) in videos is a number of what appear to be small stalls/shops closed. We have so many shops/supermarkets/malls etc here in the western world that I am struggling to understand the importance of some of them closing their doors for a strike.

Thanks for any further elucidation

Barry

[Arshama]

Hi Baz,

It's a complicated matter, but I'll try to be short. Bazaaris represent the traditional, religious (and backwarded) part of Iranian society and have been very influential in bringing Khomeini to power. Obviously that was 31 years ago, when the Bazaar was the economic centre of most Iranian cities.
Meanwhile their dominant position has been reduced due to modernisation of the economy, decentralisation (many new 'passages', i.e. malls have been built in major cities), the establishment of a new class of well educated businessmen, and of course the IRGC.
Yesterday I read an interesting sociological analysis, concluding that the Bazaar has lost its influence and has become an appendix to the government (FA) http://www.radiofarda.com/content/o2_iran_bazaar_social_function/2093642.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.radiofarda.com/content/o2_iran_bazaa...

Nevertheless there is a saying in Iran (as far as I remember): when the Bazaar sneezes, the government will catch a cold.

Arshama

[Baz]

Arshama

Thank you for that - It looks like EA should also have a "sneeze" watch??? :)

Barry