The Latest from Iran (20 July): Khamenei "I am the Rule of the Prophet"

2135 GMT: Break Time. OK, taking a breather. But remember, we are back tomorrow morning with a very special analysis of the significance of the Supreme Leader's political and religious move with the issuance of his fatwa today.

2130 GMT: The Energy Squeeze. Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times posts a useful summary of the problems for Tehran from foreign disinvestment from the energy sector, "Iran struggles over its gas field riches".

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2120 GMT: The Bazaar Plot. Tehran Bureau has published the English translation of the attack by Hossein Shariatmadari of Keyhan against those striking at the Tehran Bazaar:

Taxes are the right of the people and the government does not have the right to be remiss taking action against people who threaten to close the bazaar through a handful of hired mercenaries and who blackmail and spread ambiguities. In the last few days the telephones at Kayhan have not stopped ringing and many religious and committed bazaaris, meaning almost all of them, have been complaining about the failure of officials to take action against the plot of a handful of prosperous capitalists who feel no pain, and especially in the present sensitive circumstances.

2110 GMT: Sanctions Watch. An EU correspondent tips us off that President Ahmadinejad recently sent Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Ahani to Germany to lobby against sanctions.

2105 GMT: Shake-Up. An earthquake of magnitude 5.8 has been reported in southern Iran. There are no reported casualties.

So far, there is also no news of whether there were women's breasts in the area.

2100 GMT: Refugee Issues. A new project, Zanboor (Bee), has been launched to assist Iranian refugees in Turkey.

2055 GMT: Negotiations? Iranian state media is still hammering away at the propaganda line that it "rejected" an overture by the US, presumably through the alleged request of Senator John Kerry to visit Tehran (see 0615 GMT), for discussions.

Radio Farda reports, however, that the Afghanistan summit in Kabul provided the opportunity for Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to chat with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

2045 GMT: Catching Up with Khamenei. Back from a family break to check on our headline story....

In a curious development, it appears that the Supreme Leader's dramatic "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa has disappeared from much of Iranian state media. The reformist Parleman News, which we cited initially (see 1400 GMT), is still carrying the declaration, as is the Supreme Leader's new "Facebook Lite" page.

We are working on a special analysis for tomorrow.

1630 GMT: Back to the Bazaar Rumours (see 1440 GMT). Iran Focus rounds up the chatter: Sabz-e Meidan (vegetable wholesale market), shoemakers, and jewellers at Tehran Bazaar on strike with only a handful of shops open yesterday. Textile and Fabric Bazaar half closed, and few people were shopping.

Many petrol stations in Tehran were closed on Monday, with long queues in Tarasht, Sattar Khan, Behboudi and Baharestan Streets. In some cases, drivers had to wait in line for many hours.

And Rooz Online has put out an intriguing round-up of developments, including the entry of Saeed Mortazavi --- former Tehran Prosecutor General and "anti-smuggling" aide to the President --- into the Bazaar.

We are treating as unconfirmed at this point.

1453 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Saeed Torabian, member of the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been freed on heavy bail after pressure from unionists within and outside Iran.

1444 GMT: Picture of Day. Tahavole Sabz has posted a photograph, reprinted by the Los Angeles Times, of Parvin Fahimi, the mother of Sohrab Arabi, killed by pro-government militiamen on 15 June 2009, with former detainees of Kahrizak Prison:



1440 GMT: Bazaar Rumours. And, just to make life even busier, we are getting persistent reports that --- despite claims of a resolution with an agreed 15% tax increase --- there are still closures in the Tehran Bazaar.

1435 GMT: After the Bombings. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting that people did not let the Governor and other top officials make speeches during the funerals in Zahedan for victims of last Thursday's suicide bombings.

1413 GMT: Economy Watch. Tehran MP Alireza Mahjoub has reportedly asked, "How can we manage factories with a dictatorship in place?"

1409 GMT: The Revolution Guards' Orders. It is a proving to be a day of revelations: after the Supreme Leader's fatwa comes the publication of alleged Islamic Revolution Guards Corps intelligence orders concerning the opposition.

1400 GMT: Supreme Leader "I Am the Rule of the Prophet". Ayatollah Khamenei has issued the following fatwa, published by all major Iranian media outlets:

Question: Please explain about “obedience of velayat-e-faqih”. In other words, how should we act so that we know we have belief in and have full obedience to the successor of the hidden Imam?

Answer: “Velayat-e faghih” means the rule of cleric who has the right requirements in the age of absence [of the 12th Shia Imam]. It is a branch of the rule of the saints [Shia Imams] and the same as the rule of the Prophet. As long as you obey the commands of the ruler of the Muslims [the Supreme Leader], it shows that you have full obedience to that.

1330 GMT: Don't Drink the Water. Minister of Health Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi has declared that Tehran's drinking water should not be consumed by pregnant women and babies, adding that if the Minister of Energy says differently, he is responsible for the consequences.

1325 GMT: Academic Corner. The sudden "retirements" of professors are continuing: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 39 from Tehran, Shahid Beheshti and Khajeh Nasir universities have been moved out of their posts. The website comments that this is the "5th phase" of the retirement project, saying that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi has given the order to "open fire".

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Communications student Abbas Ahmadlou has begun serving a one-year prison sentence in Arak on charges of insulting the Supreme Leader and causing unease among public opinion.

HRANA reports that writer and translator Hojatollah Nikou'i has been arrested.

1210 GMT: Punishing the mourners. Students of Elm-o-Sanat University who attended the memorial for Kianoush Asa, slain last year in the post-election conflict, have received notices of suspension.

1208 GMT: Democracy and Security. Former President Mohammad Khatami has condemned the Zahedan bombings and said democracy is "the least expensive and most useful way to rule".

1202 GMT: Mohammad Shahryari and Abbas Ali Noura, two of the three MPs who had said they would resign after last Thursday's bombing in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, have announced they will remain in the Majlis after advice from the Supreme Leader. They said, however, that if they do not see Government action for security, they will call the Foreign Minister and Minister of Interior to account in Parliament.

1157 GMT: Economic Front. MP Hossein Eslami has claimed that 70% of Iran's imports are affected by corruption. Eslami said Iran, rather than having a massive imbalance of imports, should be exporting far more goods than it takes in. He added that workers have no labour security, which is a major reason for divorces.

1155 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Two more victims of last Thursday's double suicide bombing in southeastern Iran have died, bringing the toll to 29.

1145 GMT: When Internet Censorship Starts to Bite. Perhaps when even institutions inside Iran start disseminating anti-filtering software?

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that Tabnak, affiliated Secretary of Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, has posted a link to a proxy server (although that link is now "broken" when we tried to access it).

In April a pro-Ahmadinejad website had complained about the "filtering" of other sites.

1140 GMT: Parliament v. President. A pointed attack from MP Ali Motahari: the Majlis should stand firmly against "khodkamegi" (obstinacy/dictatorship) of the Government. Motahari even turned on fellow legislators, saying some caused the Government's insubordination and tendency to flout laws.

1050 GMT: Sanctions Watch. We've posted a separate entry on what appears to be a significant development with the restriction of Pakistani business with Iran.

The European Union is reportedly considering new sanctions, including bans on investment in the oil and gas sector and restrictions on shipping and finance. The draft of the measures names 41 Iranian people, 57 companies or other entities, 15 additional companies thought to be controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and three under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.

Senior European diplomats will discuss the proposed sanctions on Thursday.

0820 GMT: "I'm Sorry" on a Blog Gets a Travel Ban. Adeleh Ziaei has received a ban on travel for posting “I’m Sorry” on the blog of her husband Arya Aramnejad, an artist, singer, and composer.

Aramnejad was arrested in March, and Ziaei, wrote, “I’m sorry to say that Arya was wrong to think that in his beloved country, terms such as Law, Freedom, oh! Freedom! Dignity and Justice mean anything besides merely seductive words; he was wrong that he didn’t know this is Iran, a place where anything may take place and whoever has the power can accomplish whatever he wants!”

Aramanejad has been held in solitary confinement for 50 days. His trial was on 6 July but he could not present a defense since he had no access to his judicial file.

0755 GMT: We've posted a follow-up to last Friday's dissection of war talk posing as reporting and analysis, "Dealing with the Media’s 'War, War, War' Drumbeat".

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Students Iman Sedighi, Mohsen Barzgar, and Hossein Nataj were released from Mati Kola Prison in Babol on Sunday after serving half of their sentences.

0615 GMT: We begin this morning with a translation of Sunday's prepared statement by journalist Isa Saharkhiz for his appearance in Revolutionary Court: "Should the Supreme Leader Be Dismissed?"

Meanwhile, this rather silly diversion....

On Sunday, we noted the curious claim of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, that "the US Congress has informed the Swiss envoy that it is ready to hold negotiations with Iran". We requested, "Mr Boroujerdi, please do get in touch with us and let us know which US Congressmen have been talking to you of this hope for discussions — because we haven’t seen any sign of this back-channel being established."

While I don't think Mr Boroujerdi is a regular EA reader, we got an answer yesterday via the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Boroujerdi said that Iran turned down a request made by U.S. Senator John Kerry to pay a visit to Tehran because the US Democrats proved inconsistent in word and action."

Hmm.... While Kerry is a former Presidential candidate and the head of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, I'm not sure he is "the US Congress". At the same time, he has pursued initiatives either on behalf of the Administration (a trip to Afghanistan) or as the point man for US diplomacy (a visit to Syria before the US re-established an Embassy in Damascus).

If Kerry did sound out the Iranians about shaking hands in Tehran, it is either a risky individual initiative or a fumbling step for "engagement", given Tehran's exposure of the approach.

The Latest from Iran (18 July): Bazaar Resolutions?

2030 GMT: Bazaar Shutdowns. A different type of bazaar closing today, as the stalls of Sunni vendors in Zahedan --- site of last Thursday's suicide bombings --- were attacked by plainclothes assailants.

2013 GMT: "Nobody Watches Our TV" Shocker. Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, has noted the difficulty in preventing access to programmes through satellites and then complained, “The current situation is not so much in our favour. Our [TV] productions do not have any viewers. They are not attractive enough. It is just like our soccer. Our soccer team is ranked 70th in the world just like our cultural, TV, and film productions.”

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2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Students and lawyers Zoubin Nasiri, Kazem Taghdiri, and Ali Tahami have been detained for three weeks.

2000 GMT: A Message to the Clergy. Gholam Reza Mesbahi Moghaddam, of the Association of Combatant Clergy, has said that those establishing "jame'eye voaz velayi" (clergy supporting the Supreme Leader) should stop creating division. Mesbahi Moghaddam said he did not accept the new organisation and warned that clergy should not act as a political party.

1940 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Observers are trying to get to grips with the significance of the last 12 days of closings and conflicts in Iran's bazaars. Even the Los Angeles Times attempts an interpretation, but the most interesting reading comes from Rah-e-Sabz, which assesses whether the bazaaris or the "conservative" Motalefeh Party --- historically a key force in the bazaars --- has been the driving force behind the revolt against the Government's proposed 70% business tax increase.

1910 GMT: Parliament v. President. Members of Parliament told Minister of Trade Mehdi Ghazanfari that "he is lying in their faces" when he said that agricultural exports are higher than imports. Ghazanfari received a negative vote and is one step closer to impeachment.

MPs claimed that a "mafia" of 3 or 4 people are responsible for fruit imports and noted that even Iran's prayer cloths come from China.

1855 GMT: Ali Asghari, the Parliamentary advisor from Iran's Strategic Center, has warned that the country cannot be governed by one faction behaving like a clan. Asghari says cooperation of hardliners and reformists is necessary to overcome the crisis.

1850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activist Mansur Osanloo, whose family was visited by Mehdi Karroubi this weekend (see 1535 GMT), has again been charged with propaganda against the system.

1844 GMT: Guardian Council Manoeuvres. We reported earlier this week that the appointment of three of the six "legal" representatives on the 12-member Guardian Council was going to be a setback for "hardliners" and President Ahmadinejad, with their favourites --- including current member Gholam-Hossein Elham not on the shortlist.

The three appointments have now been made, with Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Salimi, and Siamak Rahpeyk taking their seats. Still, there are rumblings: MP and Government foe Ahmad Tavakoli complaining that the process was too hasty.

1840 GMT: Musical Shutdown. Reports indicate that all concerts of the National Orchestra have been cancelled for a year.

1800 GMT: Mahmoud Stays on Script. Asked about Thursday's suicide bombings in Zahedan, President Ahmadinejad pulled out all the phrases for the Islamic Republic News Agency:

"No grouping other than US-backed terrorist groups which are devoid of human feelings can commit such acts....We are friends with the Pakistani nation,…but the Pakistani government should be held accountable....The puppeteers pulling the strings in this show will get nothing....Such aggressive policies will only fuel public hatred."

The only interesting twist in that script is Ahmadinejad's reference to Pakistan: is he really threatening a strain in relations --- note the remarks of a leading MP earlier today that Iran might send troops into Pakistan to chase terrorists (see 1520 GMT) --- or is this a bit of posturing?

1550 GMT: After the Bombing. A third member of Parliament, Hossein Ali Shahriari, has resigned over security issues following last Thursday's suicide bombings in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that Layla Tavassoli has been sentenced to two years in prison for participation in demonstrations and for an interview with Radio Farda and BBC Persian.

RAHANA claims that detained women's rights activist Mahboubeh Karami has been denied surgery on her nose.

1535 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Visiting the family of detained labour activist Mansur Osanloo, Mehdi Karroubi recalled:

At the time when we started our resistance and Imam [Khomeini] started his campaign, the foundations of the revolution was based on this principle that no one would suffer from oppression. The barbaric practices that now are being committed against individuals and their families is an oppression against the people that even the Shah’s regime, with all its corruption, would not have committed. I, as a member of this system, am ashamed, but I don’t see these treatments as part of Imam [Khomeini]’s path and Islam.

Osanloo's daughter-in-law was allegedly kidnapped and beaten in June.

Karroubi expressed the hope that all political prisoners would be freed and offered condolences to those mourning the loss of loved ones after last Thursday's bombings in Sistan and Baluchistan Province.

1520 GMT: Foreign Poses. The head of Parliament's National Security Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, is putting out a lot of wisdom today. After meeting the Swiss ambassador, who represents American interests, Boroujerdi claimed that the US Congress has informed the Swiss envoy that it is ready to hold negotiations with Iran. Boroujerdi responded, "[When] the US is aiding terrorists and caused the Zahedan incident and imposed unilateral sanctions beyond [the UN Security Council] resolution, how can it expect [us] to negotiate?"

(Mr Boroujerdi, please do get in touch with us and let us know which US Congressmen have been talking to you of this hope for discussions --- because we haven't seen any sign of this back-channel being established.)

Boroujerdi also raised the possibility of sending Iranian forces into Pakistan to fight "terrorism".

1525 GMT: Fashion Police. Back from a break to find that Iran Prosecutor General Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei has called for tighter enforcement of the criminal code against dangerous fashion: "Unfortunately the law ... which considers violation of the Islamic dress code as a punishable crime, has not been implemented in the country in the past 15 years. Under the law, violators of public chastity should be punished by being sentenced to up to two months in jail or 74 lashes."

But has Mohseni-Ejei talked to the President about this? After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Ahmadinejad was warning against the excesses of the "morality police".

0930 GMT: Defiance. The Parliament has passed a  bill mandating the pursuit of 20% enrichment of uranium. The legislation now needs approval by the Guardian Council.

The bill also requires Iran to "retaliate" against the inspection of Iranian ships and any refusal of fuel to Iranian planes at international airports.

0920 GMT: Energy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). Rooz Online claims that the supposed withdrawal of companies linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps from gas projects in the South Pars field is actually a deception. Trying to avoid Western sanctions, the IRGC has merely changed the name of the company involved in the project, retaining the head.

0750 GMT: Sunday Diversions. In the Sydney Morning Herald, Michelle Wranik writes of a two-day visit to Isfahan in which she "is charmed --- and perpetually delayed --- by the kindness of Iranians."

And we bring news from a different front with a look at Iran's latest guidance, "Good, Good Lovin' (But Only at Night)".

0650 GMT: Doing It for the Young People. Reformist MP Darius Ghanbari notes that the budget of Iran's National Youth Organisation has tripled to $39 million, but claims that the Government abuses this for propaganda festivals instead of supporting youth over problems such as unemployment, unstable marriages, and depression.

Meanwhile Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo says his ministry wants to return students to Iran by creating job opportunities.

0630 GMT: We start this morning at the Tehran Bazaar where --- after a day of conflicting reports --- it appears that business is back "as usual". Mehr News publishes a set of photographs showing open stalls and the bustle of shoppers:



Yet even this apparent settlement, with the compromise of a 15% business tax increase --- the Government had tried to impose 70% --- has its far-from-resolved aspects. There is the longer-term economic issue, with the Government now receiving only about $4.5 billion of the $20 billion it had hoped to reap from the measure, and then there's the lingering presence of what it takes to get the "normal" in Iran. Note our emphasis in the following paragraph from the Los Angeles Times:

"Every year we used to manage to convince the tax office to pay a 7% increase compared to the previous year," said one wholesaler in the fabric market, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal by security forces keeping a close tab on merchants. "Now it's 15%. It seems like the tax office is the winner."

And then there's the other fronts....

The Aftermath of the Bombing

While the regime puts out the rat-a-tat-tat of "foreign involvement" in Thursday's suicide bombings in Sistan and Baluchistan Province in southeastern Iran, one of the two members of Parliaments who resigned over the event, Abbas Ali Noura, puts a  far different question: "Does the blood of Sistan and Baluchistan people have less colour than that of people in Burkina Faso [in Africa]?"

Parliament v. President

Reformist MP Hossein Kashefi, with a bit of coding, puts in this jab --- published in the far-from-reformist Aftab News --- at the Government on behalf of the people, "One party corresponds in no way with Imam [Khomeini]'s views; we shouldn't present him as someone who didn't accept democratic bases [for the Islamic Republic]."

The Latest from Iran (15 July): The Zahedan Bombing

2130 GMT: The Zahedan Bombing. Back from a family break to learn about the two explosions, reportedly caused by suicide bombers, which have killed more than 20 people and wounded more than 100 in the southeastern Iranian city of Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchestan Province.

The explosions occurred in front of Zahedan's Grand Mosque. The first was at 9:20 p.m. local time (1650 GMT) and was followed by a second blast within minutes. A local MP claimed the first suicide bomber, dressed as a woman, tried to get into the mosque but was prevented

There are reports that members of the Revolutionary Guard are amongst the dead.

Deputy Interior Minister Ali Abdollahi has always described the incident as a "terrorist act". The prime suspect will be the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah, whose leader Abdolmalek Rigi was recently executed.

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The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1709 GMT: Rafsajani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in an interview with Ertebatat monthly, has said, "Under the pretext of opposition to me, [Mohammad] Khatami, Nategh Nouri and [Mehdi] Karroubi, Ahmadinejad has put on sale all the achievements of the Revolution."

1700 GMT: Today's All-Is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's jet fuel production will soon surpass its local demand, as the country is boosting its production capacity in central Iran, an official says. Ali Dehqanian, a senior official with Isfahan Oil Refining Company (IORC), said the company currently produces 1.3 million liters of fuel jet per day, noting that Iran needs 4 million liters of fuel jet per day....

He added that an optimization project is underway in the company's fuel production unit that when complete will increase its jet fuel production to 5 million liters per day.

The official noted that 70 percent of the project has already been completed.

1658 GMT: The Electricity Squeeze. Rah-e-Sabz claims the Iran Khodro and Saipa automobile companies will close down on certain days during the week. The same is expected for other big firms.

1655 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Radio Zamaneh interviews two leading merchants from the Tehran Bazaar: "We Do Not Trust the Government's Promises".

1645 GMT: What is Ayatollah Yazdi Up To? Okay, so here's a summary of the statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at a meeting for the "Velayat Project" at Shahid Beheshti University:

Some think that the Supreme Leader has a representative function like the British Queen, but this is not true. Ayatollah Khomeini said: If the chosen President is not appointed by the Supreme Leader, he is a "taghout" (monarchist) and following him is haram (forbidden).

On the surface, that looks to be a straight-forward defence of Ayatollah Khamenei. But EA's Ms Zahra thinks there may be another interpreation: "This is a preparation for Yazdi's own succession as Leader and a justification of Ahmadinejad. He pretends to defend Khamenei's right to intervene in all matters, but even raising the "untrue" comparison with the Queen is an indirect attack.

1525 GMT: The Bigger Guardian Council Story? We noted the immediate headline today that the Supreme Leader had re-appointed three clerical representatives on the Guardian Council (see 1412 GMT).

This, however, is much more interesting. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, now names three of the "legal" representatives. His short-list --- Mohammad Salimi, Ahmad Beygi Habib-Abadi, Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Mohammad Hadi Sadegh, and Siamak Rahpeyk --- excludes two candidates, current Council member Gholam-Hossein Elham and Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Ka'abi, who are seen as pro-Ahmadinejad.

1455 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Alef has posted pictures of Tehran Bazaar today. Some show vendors doing business, others are of rows of closed stalls:

1450 GMT: Remembering. An activist translates Fereshteh Ghazi's account of the life and death of Amir Javadifar, who was abused and killed in Kahrizak Prison a year ago.

1428 GMT: Russia's Carrot-and-Stick Play. Meeting his Iranian counterpart Massoud Mir-Kazemi in Moscow, Russian Minister of Energy Sergei Shmatko praised “active cooperation between Russian and Iranian companies in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, which are developing and widening in their joint work”.

Yet Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seems to have put out a wordy warning to Tehran over the nuclear issue, "I would like to say that Iran is our rather active trading partner and has been tested by time, but that does not mean we are indifferent to the way Iran is developing its nuclear programme and we are not indifferent to how the military components of the corresponding programme look."

Analysis, please: is Moscow indicating that the recently-toughened UN sanctions are not a restriction on Iran's energy sector or is Shmatko's statement just a bit of rhetorical "balancing" to avoid a complete detachment from Tehran while his President stands alongside the "West"?

1412 GMT: The Guardians of the Guardian Council. Back from travels to find that the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, Ayatollah Gholam Reza Rezvani, and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Modarresi Yazdi, three of the six clerics on the 12-member Guardian Council.

0914 GMT: We've posted an analysis by Mr Verde of the bigger significance yesterday's opinion piece on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz: "The Story Beyond the Opposition, Enduring America, and US 'Neoconservatives'".

0910 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Kalemeh, the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, claims that the gold market in Tehran Bazaar is still closed.

0635 GMT: On Guard! General Amir Ahmad-Reza Pourdastan, commander of Iran's land forces, has announced that large parts of southern Iran will become "armed territory".

However, the foreign threat is not the main concern of Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. He has declared that the "smallest mistake of officials will be punished heavily".

0630 GMT: Economy Watch (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Minister of Economy, speaking in the Parliament, has spoken about the privatisation of Iran Telecom. He said that a rival of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps was eliminated from the bidding after the demand of  "one of the securityforces organisations".

0625 GMT: Government Retreat on Subsidy Cuts? Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Deputy Minister of Economy, has said the subsidy cut plan could be postponed. The current intention is to start reductions in Mehr (September/October), but Farzin says this is "perhaps too early".

0620 GMT: The Universities Dispute. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to discuss the conflict over control of Islamic Azad University, but there has been no resolution.

0555 GMT: To Lose One Journalist is a Misfortune, To Lose Four Looks Like Carelessness. Peyke Iran claims that a cultural reporter for Fars News has fled to France. His departure follows those of Hossein Salmanzadeh of the photo section, photojournalist Javad Moghimi, and political journalist Farahmand Alipour.

0530 GMT: Many thanks to readers for providing a rolling service of news and analysis while I was busy in the International Summer School on Wednesday.

Catching Up with the News....

Amiri Not A Nuclear Scientist Shocker

Iranian state media is setting out the line on the curious case of scientist Shahram Amiri, who returned to Iran from the US yesterday, purportedly through his words on his 14 months outside the country. Press TV has him saying:

The US administration has connected my abduction to Iran's nuclear case to pursue certain goals and exert pressure on the Iranian government. While I was being interrogated by US intelligence agents, they urged me to announce that I carried a laptop containing important information and applied for asylum.

The statement links back to the Americans' claim in recent years that they have an Iranian laptop proving Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapons, a claim disputed by many analysts. There are flourishes such as "Israel agents" at Amiri's interrogation, the "heaviest mental torture", and an offer of $10 million to appear on CNN and announce his defection.

Interestingly, Amiri is no longer a "nuclear scientist" in the article. He is an "academic".

Why the US would put so much effort into abducting a mere "scholar" is not made clear by Press TV.

And He Doesn't Get His $5 Million, Either

The US Government line, put out in The Washington Post, is a good-bye to Amiri with the sneer, "We're keeping your defection money."

Officials say Amiri was paid more than $5 million by the CIA before breaking off "significant cooperation" and "abruptly returning" to Iran because he missed his family:

Anything he got is now beyond his reach, thanks to the financial sanctions on Iran. He's gone, but his money's not. We have his information, and the Iranians have him.

The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1730 GMT: We have posted a separate entry which explains everything about the Shahram Amiri nuclear scientist defection/abduction case...in a single cartoon.

1720 GMT: Back to the Bazaar. Khabar Online maintains the impression that the conflict over the bazaars is far from over. The website post one item that the "Bazaari Guilds Council in crisis" and another that some vendors do not accept the wishes of their representatives --- presumably a reference to the claimed deal for a 15% tax increase --- and have even managed to cut off power in some parts of the Bazaar.

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1718 GMT: You Know, Vacations Do Cost Money. Claim of the day in the Iranian media via a member of Parliament's National Security Commission: the extra two holidays this week, allegedly because of high temperatures, have meant a $4 billion loss to Iran's economy.

1715 GMT: Swallowing the Bazaar? The new website Green Correspondents posts an analysis asserting that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps are seeking to take over the bazaar, cutting off its "traditional relationships".

1415 GMT: Picture of the Day (Add Your Caption). The Supreme Leader before military officers on Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Day.



1400 GMT: Grounding Iran's Flights? After confirmation that BP has stopped supplying fuel air to Iran Air at Hamburg Airport in Germany, Mohammad Reza Rajabi, Iran Air's head in Hamburg, has admitted, "Finding a substitute for BP to provide Iranian passenger planes with fuel in Hamburg airport will take some time."

1335 GMT: Khabar Online's Punches of the Day. And now, courtesy of our friends at Khabar Online (did we mention that the website is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani?), the first of a regular feature on its jabs at President Ahmadinejad.

As the anniversary of the death in Kahrizak Prison of Mohsen Ruholamini approaches, the website features his father, Abdolhossein Ruholamini, a key advisor to former Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, who repeats his call for Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi to "be tried as promised and announced".

And, in the business section, it appears that 110 Mercedes vehicles for Ahmadinejad and the Foreign Ministry have been imported without paying the required taxes.

1035 GMT: Break Time. Apologies that updates are sporadic today, as I move between seminars and a plenary lecture this afternoon.

Thanks to all for keeping the news flowing.

1030 GMT: The Battle Within. A (relatively) gentler statement from key MP and Ahmadinejad critic Ali Motahhari: the relationship between govt and Majlis is critical --- if it is positive, it helps to overcome mistakes.

1025 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Khabar Online claims that extra holidays did not ease blackouts, with only a 10% reduction in consumption of electricity.

0820 GMT: Parliament (and a Cleric) v. President: MP Mohammad Ali Karimi comments, "Imam Khomeini believed that the parliament is at the heart of Islamic republic. But the government is not respecting the parliament’s approved laws." Karimi, referring to the President, asserted, "By dreaming we can not manage the country, let alone the world."

0810 GMT: Culture Corner. An EA correspondent checks in with the hot topic for chatter amongst young Iranians. Bazaar strike? Economic issues? The postponement of the President's trip to Lebanon?

No. It's this: "The Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has not granted a license to any Iranian expatriate pop singers living in Los Angeles, the culture minister said on Monday."

0800 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Lawmakers have lodged a motion for impeachment against Minister of Agriculture Sadeq Khalilian.

The specific grievance is dissatisfaction with excessive imports of food products. The broader allegation is Khalilian's lack of skill.

0625 GMT: We begin this morning with a bit of a diversion, noting in an analysis how the tangled covering post-election Iran turned EA into a US "neo-conservative" on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz.

Most of our colleagues in the international mainstream press begin with a bit of a diversion, devoting their attention to the return of scientist Shahram Amiri --- did he defect? was he kidnapped? --- from the US to Iran.

Meanwhile...

Tuesday's Top Quote

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbar comments on recent political and economic developments by noting the Supreme Leader's of this Iranian year as a "Year of Productivity": "Is this the year of extra work or extra holidays?"

Extra Holidays, Well, Strikes Actually

We had reported yesterday that the Tehran Bazaar was almost completely closed as the supposed deal between the Government and Bazaaris apparently fell through.

It appears that was also the case in Tabriz.

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.