US Politics: Why is Obama's Popularity Dipping?

In the Sunday Times of London this week, Christina Lamb observed that whilst Barack Obama is one of the most successful presidents in terms of passing legislation, his popularity has sunk to a new low.

A CBS/New York Times poll gives Obama an approval rating of 44%. Richard Nixon and George W Bush had ratings which were significantly lower, in the 20% range at their. The warning light for Obama is that, 18 months into their Presidencies, the approval ratings for Nixon and Bush were 58% and 62%.

The Obama Administration’s legislative record is the best since Franklin D Roosevelt’s. It has passed an economic stimulus package of almost $800 billion and has made an important start to health care legislation, although there will be challenges to the latter in the courts. The Finance Reform Bill, signed into law this week, will be the most significant finance regulatory package since the 1930s and undoes much of Ronald Reagan’s deregulation. After a slow reaction to the Louisiana oil rig disaster, Obama has shown leadership in bringing BP to the table and shaking out a huge compensation package. One would have expected the public to have some respect for these achievements.

So why are Obama’s ratings low? Recovery from the economic recession is slow and patchy. Unemployment at almost 10% remains high and is unlikely to improve for a while. Unsurprisingly, then, the President’s popularity suffers. Obama’s problem from Day One was that that the expectation bar was set so high in a shaky economy that no one could have cleared it.

There are other factor. Historically, it is not unusual for a Chief Executive to suffer as he approaches his first mid-term elections. Bill Clinton lost control of Congress in 1994 and had to contend with Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who ran away with the idea that he was now in charge of the government. Odd notion, but the Republicans did shut down the Federal Government twice in Clinton’s time.

The media's criticisms have an impact. The unreconstructed neo-conservative, Charles Krauthammer, is crowing in The Washington Post that “there is a run on Obama shares”. (For perspective, consider that Krauthammer slammed George W. Bush in 2001 slammed “W” for declaring a regime-change war on Iraq and not the real enemy of democracy, Iran.) Other far-from-conservative newspapers, such as The New York Times, are claiming that Obama is losing with the voters. Media observations cross the political aisle.

In a politically divided country, Obama is bound to be unpopular in Republican strongholds and with Republican voters. He is not the only one suffering from tensions: in 2010, some middle-of-the-road Republicans are having problems with Tea Party candidates. It is now a dog-eat-dog political world in the USA.

Obama’s win in 2008 found many Democrats winning Congressional seats that be difficult to hold two years later, given that these seats are Republican in all but name. However, what is surprising is that Robert Gibbs, Obama’s press secretary, has expressed publicly that Democrats might lose control of both Houses of Congress. Sitting Democrats have blamed Obama for this message and he is now viewed by some as an electoral liability. The President's coattails, for some in his party, are getting short.

Beyond all this, Perhaps the truth lies in the oddity that --- apart from the Clinton years, and perhaps not even then --- Democrats are not used to holding the Executive Branch. Perhaps they are uncomfortable with power. Whatever the reason, the Democrats are starting to take their of the 70s and 80s when they were a firing squad……standing in a circle.

The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1730 GMT: We have posted a separate entry which explains everything about the Shahram Amiri nuclear scientist defection/abduction case...in a single cartoon.

1720 GMT: Back to the Bazaar. Khabar Online maintains the impression that the conflict over the bazaars is far from over. The website post one item that the "Bazaari Guilds Council in crisis" and another that some vendors do not accept the wishes of their representatives --- presumably a reference to the claimed deal for a 15% tax increase --- and have even managed to cut off power in some parts of the Bazaar.

NEW Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
NEW Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

1718 GMT: You Know, Vacations Do Cost Money. Claim of the day in the Iranian media via a member of Parliament's National Security Commission: the extra two holidays this week, allegedly because of high temperatures, have meant a $4 billion loss to Iran's economy.

1715 GMT: Swallowing the Bazaar? The new website Green Correspondents posts an analysis asserting that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps are seeking to take over the bazaar, cutting off its "traditional relationships".

1415 GMT: Picture of the Day (Add Your Caption). The Supreme Leader before military officers on Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Day.



1400 GMT: Grounding Iran's Flights? After confirmation that BP has stopped supplying fuel air to Iran Air at Hamburg Airport in Germany, Mohammad Reza Rajabi, Iran Air's head in Hamburg, has admitted, "Finding a substitute for BP to provide Iranian passenger planes with fuel in Hamburg airport will take some time."

1335 GMT: Khabar Online's Punches of the Day. And now, courtesy of our friends at Khabar Online (did we mention that the website is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani?), the first of a regular feature on its jabs at President Ahmadinejad.

As the anniversary of the death in Kahrizak Prison of Mohsen Ruholamini approaches, the website features his father, Abdolhossein Ruholamini, a key advisor to former Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, who repeats his call for Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi to "be tried as promised and announced".

And, in the business section, it appears that 110 Mercedes vehicles for Ahmadinejad and the Foreign Ministry have been imported without paying the required taxes.

1035 GMT: Break Time. Apologies that updates are sporadic today, as I move between seminars and a plenary lecture this afternoon.

Thanks to all for keeping the news flowing.

1030 GMT: The Battle Within. A (relatively) gentler statement from key MP and Ahmadinejad critic Ali Motahhari: the relationship between govt and Majlis is critical --- if it is positive, it helps to overcome mistakes.

1025 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Khabar Online claims that extra holidays did not ease blackouts, with only a 10% reduction in consumption of electricity.

0820 GMT: Parliament (and a Cleric) v. President: MP Mohammad Ali Karimi comments, "Imam Khomeini believed that the parliament is at the heart of Islamic republic. But the government is not respecting the parliament’s approved laws." Karimi, referring to the President, asserted, "By dreaming we can not manage the country, let alone the world."

0810 GMT: Culture Corner. An EA correspondent checks in with the hot topic for chatter amongst young Iranians. Bazaar strike? Economic issues? The postponement of the President's trip to Lebanon?

No. It's this: "The Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has not granted a license to any Iranian expatriate pop singers living in Los Angeles, the culture minister said on Monday."

0800 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Lawmakers have lodged a motion for impeachment against Minister of Agriculture Sadeq Khalilian.

The specific grievance is dissatisfaction with excessive imports of food products. The broader allegation is Khalilian's lack of skill.

0625 GMT: We begin this morning with a bit of a diversion, noting in an analysis how the tangled covering post-election Iran turned EA into a US "neo-conservative" on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz.

Most of our colleagues in the international mainstream press begin with a bit of a diversion, devoting their attention to the return of scientist Shahram Amiri --- did he defect? was he kidnapped? --- from the US to Iran.

Meanwhile...

Tuesday's Top Quote

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbar comments on recent political and economic developments by noting the Supreme Leader's of this Iranian year as a "Year of Productivity": "Is this the year of extra work or extra holidays?"

Extra Holidays, Well, Strikes Actually

We had reported yesterday that the Tehran Bazaar was almost completely closed as the supposed deal between the Government and Bazaaris apparently fell through.

It appears that was also the case in Tabriz.

The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

2030 GMT: Tie Me Up, Tie Me Down. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has denounced President Ahmadinejad for saying that no religious leader has banned the wearing of a tie: "I say to him that many religious dignitaries believe ties should not be worn. The Supreme Guide [Leader] himself has said in a that the wearing of ties or bowties is not permitted."

1955 GMT:Electricity Squeeze. Mohammad Behzad, the Deputy Minister of Energy, has said industrial electricity will be rationed with alterations of working hours and rotating closures of companies.

1945 GMT: Iran Aircraft on Empty? BP and Iran Air have both confirmed that the British company has stopped supplying jet fuel at Germany's Hamburg airport.

Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
Iran’s Haircuts Special: The Revenge of the Mullets
The Latest from Iran (12 July): Holidays?

1915 GMT: Where is Mahmoud (Not Going)? Hmm, not sure what to make of this. From Mehr News:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has postponed his visit to Lebanon till after the holy month of Ramadan [which ends on 9 September], the Beirut-based Al-Akhbar newspaper said in a report published on Tuesday.

The decision was made after a consultation between Tehran and Beirut, Al-Akhbar quoted Lebanese diplomatic sources as saying....

Ahmadinejad, who has been invited by his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman, was supposed to visit Beirut before 11 August at the head of a 70-member delegation.

1900 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. From Press TV:

Iran's Interior Minister says Tehran has successfully foiled all foreign plots aimed at destabilizing the country over the past three decades. "Over the past 30 years, our enemies faced defeat in every instance and their latest ploy was [inciting] the seditionists who wanted to break our ranks," Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told reporters on Tuesday....

The Interior Minister said peace was restored to the country's eastern region after the execution of Abdolmalek Rigi, the ringleader of the Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group.

"With the execution of this villain, who was backed by several Western spy agencies and the Israelis, complete peace has returned to the region."

1850 GMT: The Prison Scandal. Writing in Rooz Online, Fereshteh Ghazi offers a lengthy critique of the Kahrizak abuse case. She sets out the case that, while two security personnel have been condemned to death and nine have been given prison sentences, those responsible --- notably former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi --- have escaped justice.

1825 GMT: Politics and the Bazaar Strike. An EA correspondent pulls together the latest from the Tehran Bazaar and a statement by the head of the "conservative" Motalefeh Party, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, on growing conflict with President Ahmadinejad and his allies, "The Velayat Party [declared by Ahmadinejad this weekend] does not exist."

Our correspondent, drawing on Motalefeh's traditional power in the Bazaar, interprets Habibi's statement: "If you hit my party, I hit your economy."

1815 GMT: More on the Khatami Statement (see 1510 GMT). Khabar Online's main takeaway from Mohammad Khatami's meeting with youth groups and reformist journalists is his declaration that "many people, professors, students, experts, and journalists are leaving the country".

Parleman News focuses on Khatami's assertion that the "Green Movement belongs to the people" and his reading of the political situation: "Some think they are above the law," deviating from religious principles. Khatami added,  "We have reached a point that even the Majlis cannot stop injustice". In a pointed reference to President Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran needs no other than the "Velayat Party", Khatami noted, "The Shah said as well that we have only one party."

1630 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Tehran Bureau sends the following from a correspondent: ""I visited the bazaar today and was quite surprised to see most stores closed there. There were NO security personnel in uniform to be found anywhere. I did see a Basiji directing traffic half a mile away. There was also a flier on the wall (inside the main bazaar) which said the '15% deal is off'."

More claimed footage from today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN26VggCKqE[/youtube]

1525 GMT: Culture Corner (Revolutionary Guard Edition). The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has announced that it is establishing an "Association of Cultural Elites" near Tehran University.

1510 GMT: Khatami on "Double-Edged" Religion. Speaking to youth parties and reformist journalists, former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that religion can be "a double-edged sword" insofar as it can pursue rights and justice but it also be a tool to justify exclusion and failure.

1455 GMT: Fighting the Oil Squeeze. Iranian Students News Agency reports that Iran cut its imports of gasoline by almost 50% in March-June 2010, compared to figures of the previous year.

1445 GMT: Keeping the Pressure On. Interesting, given our current attention to possible manoeuvres against President Ahmadinejad, to find Jahan News citing Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Mohsen Rezaei in the 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Rouholamini, killed in Kahrizak Prison last summer.

Ruholamini asks, given that the criminal verdicts over Kahrizak have been announced, why has Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Prosecutor General and now aide to the President, not been dismissed?

1435 GMT: Statements Present. Mir Hossein Mousavi has said, in a meeting with a group of faculty of Tarbiat Modarres University, that everyone who defends rights is a member of the Green Movement.

Mousavi declared, "Soon Green Hope will win because people are looking for the realization of rights. The seeking of human freedom is the defence of rationality and logic against oppression and lies."

1425 GMT: Statements Past. Khordaad 88 has posted the English translation of the Mousavi-Karroubi press conference on 8 June, held four days before the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election.

Rooz Online has published the English translation of its interview this weekend with Zahra Rahnavard on the diversity of the Green Movement and its welcoming of criticism.

1420 GMT: Broadcast News. The head of SWR, part of the German broadcaster ARD, has defended the recent visit of the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and an IRIB delegation by saying that there were no cooperation agreements during an "informational visit". The clear implication in the letter is that the reception of IRIB ensures that ARD can maintain a journalistic presence in Iran.

1410 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Four detainees in Rejai Shahr Prison have written the Tehran Prosecutor General, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, asking, "Where is the human dignity you have claimed?"

A letter from 160 activists demands the release of Azam Veysameh, a journalist arrrested on 10 June.

1400 GMT: Political Changes. Hossein Saberi, the Governor of Lorestan Province in western Iran, was suddenly replaced. So sudden, in fact, that he learned of his dismissal from an announcement on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1355 GMT: And now claimed footage of the strike at the Tehran Bazaar today:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk4CqIK-ZIg[/youtube]

1345 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. Rah-e-Sabz claims, with supporting photos, that "strikes continued today and were even more extensive than last week".

Khabar Online is also carrying the news, which has been picked up by Agence France Presse. The Government has been declaring that a compromise deal of a 15% tax increase --- down from the original 70% --- has been agreed.



1340 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Omidvar Rezaei has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani "reminded" President Ahmadinejad, at the meeting of the heads of the executive, legislative, and judicial brances, of violating Article 138 over the implementation of laws.

MP Emad Afrough has declared that the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, at the centre of the dispute over Islamic Azad University, is far from acceptable because of members' inability, too many jobs, and low expertise.

1325 GMT: Execution Watch. The international furour over the sentencing to death by stoning, now temporarily suspended, of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani has been matched by questions within Iran. Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has pronounced that stoning is not in the Qu'ran while reformist Masoumeh Ebtekar, a former Vice President, has asserted that Ayatollah Khomeini said many times that stoning should not be carried out.

1020 GMT: The Battle Within. Ali Larijani has used the economic front to take another jab at the Government. He has underlined the importance of a "relationship between hardliners and clergy" (a call for a front to challenge Ahmadinejad?) and added that the meaning of Iran's Article 44 regulating state and private economic spheres was not for the latest sell-off of four companies.

1015 GMT: Sideshow of the Day. A bit off the key terrain of Iranian politics, this curious case continues:

An Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran claims was kidnapped by the United States has sought refuge at the Pakistani embassy's Iranian interests section in Washington and is seeking to return home to Iran, Pakistani authorities said Tuesday.

Shahram Amiri, a onetime researcher at Iran's Atomic Energy Organization who disappeared during a trip to Saudi Arabia last year, appeared at the Iranian interests section office at 6:30 p.m. Monday, said Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit.

0828 GMT: Break Time. Off to teach at the Clinton Institute Summer School so updates will resume briefly in about 90 minutes and then again this afternoon.

0825 GMT: The Battle Within. Secretary of Expediency Council (and 2009 Presidential candidate) Mohsen Rezaei has given a long interview to Khabar Online. Lots to be worked through, but an EA correspondent notes his claim
that Hashemi Rafsanjani's manoeuvre is "to bring back reformers and divert (enheraf) hardliners".

That would seem to be a swipe at Rafsanjani, which is at odds with my weekend analysis of planners against Ahmadinejad, including Rezaei, reaching out to the former President.

0810 GMT: Electoral Change. The Guardian Council has approved a Parliament bill to hold Presidential and city council elections at the same time, effectively the next municipal ballot by two years to 2013.

0807 GMT: We Want Our Money. According to Peyke Iran, President Ahmadinejad has claimed that banks owe the Government 10 trillion toman (about $10 billion).

0805 GMT: Economic Salvation? Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times investigates continued and growing links between Germany and Tehran:

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran.

In the first four months of 2010, trade between Iran and Germany totaled nearly $1.8 billion, up 20% from the same period last year, according to the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Hamburg.

0800 GMT: Trouble in Qom? Alongside our special look this morning at a claimed rebuke of the Supreme Leader by Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani, Rah-e-Sabz claims concern amongst clerics about a change in identity of the seminaries (howzeh).

0755 GMT: Watching the Bazaar. Iran should be back to work today after an extended holiday since last Thursday. We're watching for news out of the Tehran Bazaar, amidst chatter both about continued strikes and about a settlement between the Government and the vendors, reducing the business tax increase from 70% to 15%.

0725 GMT: We begin this morning with an analysis of a reported message from Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani to the Supreme Leader: has Ayatollah Khamenei been told that his earthly life has been wasted and his heavenly one is in doubt?

And it looks like there is a new player in Iranian broadcasting: welcome to Mir Hossein Mousavi TV.

The Latest from Iran (6 July): Compromise?

2047 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Press TV plays up the statement of the head of Iran's Trade Promotion Organization that, despite UN sanctions, non-oil exports have grown 27%.

No word in the statement on how oil exports are doing.

Iran & Sanctions: Could Tehran’s Flights Be Grounded?
Iran Analyses: A Rafsanjani-Khamenei Deal on Universities Crisis? (Siavashi and Verde)
The Latest from Iran (5 July): Talks and Conflicts

2045 GMT: Energy News. Iran has finally put out a major oilwell fire which had been raging for 38 days.

2040 GMT: Parliament v. President. Kalemeh has more information on today's attack by legislator Ahmad Tavakoli (see 1230 GMT) on the Government and his claim of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's lack of respect for the law.

1705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Sasan Aghaei, held from November to April with 40 days in solitary confinement, has been given a one-year prison sentence.

1500 GMT: Parliament v. President. "Conservative" member of Parliament Reza Akrami has issued another denunciation of the recent demonstrations against the Majlis and its bill on control of Islamic Azad University: "Those who insult the Majlis stand apart from hardline principles. What happened was illegal."

1455 GMT: A Minor Strike? Press TV, while referring on today's stoppage by traders at the Tehran Bazaar, says that it was a "minor strike" by "several wholesale cloth traders". The website does note the jewellers' guild has announced it will join the strike on Wednesday (there were reports that some gold traders had closed their doors today).

In what appears to be an immediate reaction to the strike, Mehr News reports that Iran's Ministry of Commerce has reversed its decision to raise business taxes by 70%.

1355 GMT: Defending Iran. An intriguing angle emerging from the Mousavi-Khatami meeting (see 1235 GMT)....

The two men denounced the UN sanctions against Iran, questioning why no similar action had ever been taken against Israel and declaring that the Iranian people will not let any power interfere with their internal affairs". Mousavi and Khatami also criticised "the West" for its support of "terrorist groups".

1235 GMT: Meetings. Former President Mohammad Khatami's website has published a summary of his meeting on Monday with Mir Hossein Mousavi (see 1125 GMT).

1230 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another challenge from key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli, who has said in a speech --- my paraphrase --- "How dare the President say that the law does not apply to him."

1220 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Peyke Iran claims that this morning's strike in the Tehran Bazaar (see 1120 GMT) over Government taxes was in the gold and textile markets.

1215 GMT: Airlines, Sanctions, and Safety. A new twist in the tale of Iran's possibly-grounded flights: the European Union has banned most of Iran Air's jets from flying to Europe. EU officials denied that the measure was connected to international and US sanctions, with a spokesperson insisting, "We deal purely with safety requirements. Our controls focus entirely on safety, nothing else."

1130 GMT: Press Un-Freedom. One weekly publication in Tehran Province, Madineye Goftogu, has been banned for "slander of officials" and three others have received warnings.

1125 GMT: Discussions. Aftab News reports that Mir Hossein Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami have met to discuss the domestic situation and international sanctions.

1120 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh claims, from eyewitnesses, that there was "unrest and strikes" amongst merchants, protesting over Government tax policy, in the Tehran Bazaar this morning.

1115 GMT: The International Front. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has criticised unilateral US sanctions in a news briefing: "China has already noted that the United States and other parties have unilaterally put in place further sanctions against Iran. Not long ago, the U.N. Security Council approved resolution 1929. China believes that the Security Council resolution should fully, seriously and correctly be enforced and cannot be wilfully elaborated on to expand Security Council sanctions measures."

Meanwhile, the head of the Iran-United Arab Emirates Chamber of Commerce says the managers of two companies linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps have had their bank accounts frozen in response to the latest UN sanctions: “Khatam al-Anbiya and their subsidiaries, and companies that they thought were involved in Iran’s atomic work, are on the list.”

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Parvin Jamalzadeh, detained on Ashura (27 December) has been sentenced to 8 1/2 years in prison for acting against national security by participating in illegal gatherings, disturbing public order, committing blasphemy, and insulting the Supreme Leader.

Journalist Emaduddin Baghi's court appearance has been postponed to mid-August.

Rooz Online publishes an interview with the daughter of Mohammad Seddigh Kaboudvand, the founder and president of the Kurdistan Human Rights Defense Organization, who is entering the fourth year of a 10-year prison sentence.

Tonia Kaboudvand speaks of worries over her father's health and says, “Human rights activists and defenders have been silent about my father’s situation and have over time forgotten about it.”

0810 GMT: Investment v. Sanctions. Rooz Online summarises this interesting development: Iran is removing barriers to foreign banks operating in the country.

Deutsche Welle, however, notes that sanctions are causing increasing difficulties for European companies such as EON and RWE to invest in Iran's energy sector.

0755 GMT: Attack on the Clerics. Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has reiterated that the attack on his family's house last month was carried out in the presence of some government officials.

0745 GMT: The Labour Front. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that 500 workers at the Abadan oil refinery have protested and gone on strike over unpaid wages.

0715 GMT: Halting Democracy? Green Voice of Freedom claims that the recent Parliamentary decision to postponing municipal elections is the first step in a plan, backed by the Supreme Leader, to eliminate all elections.

0705 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. And, amidst the talk of a Khamenei-Rafsanjani deal to avert immediate political crisis, two stories in Rah-e-Sabz that indicate others in the Government are still trying to cut down the former President.

The website claims that Rafsanjani was banned from ceremonies last week marking the "7 Tir" bombing of 1981. And it reports that the head of the office of Yasser Hashemi, Rafsanjani's youngest son, was arrested yesterday.

0700 GMT: Then Again.... Back to our opening story on the supposed resolution of the Islamic Azad University crisis through the Supreme Leader's intervention. A member of the Supreme Council for Cultural Revolution has said that the suspension of the SCCR's decision --- which effectively overrules Parliament and backs President Ahmadinejad --- is only temporary.

Press TV is now reporting on Khamenei's letter to Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani "suspending" any decision on the university.

0650 GMT: Parliament v. Government. The Majlis is insisting that it should have the authority, as prescribed by the Constitution, to review treaties with foreign countries or companies.

The declaration should be seen in the specific context of the intervention by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and other legislators in the international manoeuvres over Iran's uranium enrichment.

0640 GMT: Flashback of Resistance. Green Voice of Freedom recalls Mir Hossein's final appearance on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "Death, yes. Retreat, never."

0630 GMT: Sanctions and Iran's Airlines. More follow-up from our story yesterday that US-led sanctions on fuel for Iranian aircraft may be grounding flights....

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has denied this morning that any flights are being affected and insists that supplies are uninterrupted.

The German Government has again said that fuel has been refused. That, however, does not cover the possibility that private companies --- like BP, who said yesterday that it had suspended deliveries --- have cut off supplies.

0530 GMT: We begin this morning with another check on the state of the universities crisis between President, Parliament, and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Iranian media are taking the line that the Supreme Leader has ordered a suspension of both the Parliament's bill and the intervention of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, which in effect backed President Ahmadinejad's control of the university. It is unclear what Khamenei's decision means for the future of the institution; the university's new President was supposed to be appointed yesterday.

It is notable, however, that the suspension effectively recognised the current arrangements: 1) the Supreme Leader's order was announced by the university’s board of trustees; 2) Khamenei's directive went not only to Ahmadinejad and the SCCR but also Rafsanjani as "Board of Trustees Director".

UPDATED Iran & Sanctions: Could Tehran's Flights Be Grounded?

UPDATE 1740 GMT: Britain's largest oil company BP has instructed its European operations not to refuel Iranian airlines "due to a decision from the U.S. Congress".

UPDATE 1530 GMT: Press TV has now posted a story which repeats the claim that Britain, Germany, the UAE, and Kuwait have suspended supplies of fuel.

Press TV adds denials from German'sTransport Ministry and Abu Dhabi airports that there was any ban; however, as EA readers have noted, this does not preclude a cutoff by private suppliers.

---

The German Bureau first alerted us to this potentially significant story this morning. A key pro-Government member of Parliament, Kazem Jalali, had spoken of court action against the US for its unilateral sanctions against Iran. Jalali specifically noted the American threat to suspend sales of aircraft fuel (see our morning updates).

Deep in the story was the note that the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Germany had followed the American lead and halted fuel supplies.

Hours later came the confirmation, via Iranian Students News Agency and then relayed outside Iran, from the secretary of Iranian Airlines Union: "Since last week, after the passing of the unilateral law by America and the sanctions against Iran, airports in England, Germany, the UAE have refused to give fuel to Iranian planes."

Peyke Iran followed by reporting that an Iran Air flight from Frankfurt, Germany had been postponed and might be cancelled due to the fuel shortage.

And now our German Bureau adds this bit of information: on Sunday Iran Air cancelled a flight to Hamburg, Germany.

Watch this (air)space for developments....