Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad on Afghanistan, Sanctions, & the US (26 July)

Brief notes on this interview of President Ahmadinejad by CBS News:

1. As Marc Lynch has noted at Foreign Policy, there is a real danger of a superficial portrayal of the Wikleaks "War Diary" showing a link between Tehran and the Taliban or even between Tehran and Al Qa'eda.

There is a massive difference between documents recording that "US officials say there are links...." and documents establishing evidence of links. As far as I know --- and this is a general remark on some of those claiming what the documents "show" --- those putting forth the Iran-Taliban-Al Qa'eda connections have not actually read any of the documents, only summaries put out for the press.

2. Beyond Afghanistan, CBS played nicely into Ahmadinejad's hands with softball questions on the nuclear programme, sanctions, and relations with Washington.

3. Most importantly, where was there any reference to Iran's internal situation? Is a major US network really that blinkered?

China This Week: Drills In The Yellow Sea; China’s Energy Progress; Dalian Pipeline Blast

US-South Korea Drill in Yellow Sea: China on Wednesday expressed its latest opposition to joint drills between the United States and South Korea , which Seoul-based media reported will occur in the Yellow Sea by early September.

It was the sixth time this month that Beijing has protested the joint drills, which were delayed following the Chinese objections. "We resolutely oppose any foreign military vessel and aircraft conducting activities in the Yellow Sea and China's coastal waters that undermine China's security interests. We will continue to follow closely the developments of the situation", Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said.

The US and South Korea originally scheduled the exercises after the suspected North Korean role in the deadly sinking of South Korean warship Cheonan in March.



During a visit to South Korea on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced new sanctions against North Korea, targeted at the sale or procurement of arms and related goods as well as the procurement of luxury items.

Chinese Army Holds Yellow Sea Drill: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) held a military supply drill in the Yellow Sea over last weekend.

The drill was aimed at improving defense capabilities against long-distance attacks. Four helicopters and four rescue vessels were deployed for the exercise.

China Strengthens Military Ties: Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Guo Boxiong Wednesday pledged to enhance military exchanges with Angola.

Guo made the vow in his meeting with visiting Angolan Minister of Defense Candido Pereira dos Santos Van-Dunem.

China and Laos on Thursday pledged to further strengthen military links during a meeting between China's Defense Minister Liang Guanglie and visiting Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense of Laos Douangchay Phichit.

"China attaches importance to the bilateral relationship with Laos and its armed forces. This is not only in the interest of the two peoples, but also conducive to regional security and development," Liang said.

Pakistan's navy is very satisfied with the performance of the F-22P frigate it bought from China and hopes to further the cooperation with the nation, said Admiral Noman Bashir, Pakistan's Chief of Naval Staff.

Pakistan has proposed development of strategic maritime cooperation with China in both military and commercial sectors, such as fisheries, economic development zones, and cargo, Bashir said.

China Makes Critical Nuclear Progress: China's endeavour to increase the use of clean energy was boosted on Wednesday after an experimental fast reactor, using mostly homegrown fourth-generation nuclear technology, reached the critical state.

Fast reactors that run on fourth-generation technology use fuel in optimally to reduce energy costs. The technology will lift the uranium usage ratio to as high as 70 percent from the existing 1 percent, reducing the nation's reliance on foreign fuel imports.

The fast reactor program has been set up with a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan ($369 million). China is the eighth country to successfully master the technology.

China plans to set up 60 new nuclear reactors with a capacity of around 75 million kilowatts by 2020. The country is also constructing 23 machine sets to harness nuclear power, the largest among the 57 such sets in the world.

China Dismisses "Top Energy User" Title: China on Tuesday rejected a report by the International Energy Agency that Beijing surpassed the US to become the world's biggest energy consumer last year.

"The IEA's data on China's energy use is unreliable," Zhou Xian, an official with the National Energy Administration, said.

According to the IEA, China consumed 2.252 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2009, 0.4 percent more than the 2.17 billion tons of the US. China's National Bureau f Statistics said in a report in February that China's energy consumption last year stood at 3.1 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, which was equal to 2.132 billion tons of oil equivalent.

China to Reduce Reliance on Coal: China's coal consumption is likely to drop to 63 percent of total energy consumption by 2015, down from 70 percent last year.

Non-fossil fuels will provide 11 percent of China's energy needs in 2015 and 15 percent in 2020, said Jiang Bing, head of the development and planning department of the National Energy Administration.

China closed 620 substandard small coal mines in the first five months of the year, said Zhou Xi'an, another senior official with the NEA.

CNPC Plans for Xinjiang: Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region is expected to become the country's most significant base in oil and gas production, refining and chemicals manufacturing, oil storage, and engineering, and technology services in the next 10 years, according to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the nation's largest oil company.

Xinjiang will also become a strategic route for oil and gas imports from Central Asia and Russia, it said.

Oil and gas production in Xinjiang is expected to reach 50 million tons of oil equivalent in 2015. The figure will further rise to 60 million tons in 2020 and is expected to be sustained for 20 years, according to CNPC.

China Accepts ASEAN Consensus on Enlargement: China attaches importance to and respects the consensus reached among the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members concerning the enlargement of the East Asia Summit (EAS), Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said Wednesday.

Qin was responding to the EAS's indication that it will bring in the United States and Russia as its new members. China will stay in close contact with related parties till a consensus is reached, Qin added.

ASEAN includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Dalian Oil Supply Resumes: China is rushing to resume supply operations at Dalian's Xingang Harbor as cleanup operations continue six days after two pipelines exploded and spewed crude oil into the sea.

Dalian is one of China's major oil production and distribution hubs. It also has popular beaches, many of which were closed after crude oil washed up on them.

The oil pipeline exploded late on 16 July near Dalian's Xingang harbor, causing a smaller pipeline nearby also operated by a unit of PetroChina to blow up. The fire was extinguished the next day, 15 hours after the initial blast.

The incident occurred when an oil tanker was unloading, according to a statement on the Ministry of Transport's website, which did not indicate the cause.

China Cracks Down on Online Piracy: Chinese authorities launched a three-month nationwide campaign on Wednesday to crack down on illegal disttribution on the Internet.

Internet websites based in China that are found selling pirated books, DVDs, or other publications, as well as those providing links to pirated music, software, and movies, could be blocked and shut down.

Selling or uploading pirated publications related to the ongoing Shanghai World Exposition and upcoming Guangzhou Asian Games will also face severe punishment.

The Latest from Iran (22 July): Confusing Regime

2125 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has declared that there is no smuggling of gas and oil across Iran's borders.

Then again, maybe all is not well: despite there being no smuggling, Ahmadi-Moghaddam has said the budget for border defence is inadequate.

2115 GMT: Religious Difficulties. Mohammad Nasser Saghaie Biriya, the President's religious advisor has resigned, allegedly because of divisions over the enforcement of hijab.

Saghaie Biriya is a disciple of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who has been seen as Ahmadinejad's religious mentor.

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)
Iran Media Follow-Up: War, War, War. Blah, Blah, Blah. No Facts. More War. Blah.
Iran Special: Khamenei’s “I Am the Rule of the Prophet” Fatwa — Strength or Weakness? (Verd
The Latest from Iran (21 July): Khamenei Rattled?

2100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained student activist Arsalan Abadi has been sentenced to six years in prison by an appellate court. Abadi, arrested during the Ashura protests on 27 December, had originally been given a nine-year term.

2055 GMT: Regime v. Rafsanjani. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami has tried to put former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his place, saying that his position is still the same as it was on 19 June last year, when the Supreme Leader tried to close off debate over the result of the Presidential election. Khatami said Rafsanjani's s future depends on Ayatollah Khamenei's decisions and the elections for the head of Expediency Council, the position Rafsanjani currently holds.

1945 GMT: Prohibiting Remembrance. Back from a break to catch up with this news from Wednesday....

The National Front of Iran has announced that security forces pressured the organisation into cancelling its public events. The head of the National Front was that any gathering in 7th Tir Square and boarding the bus to travel to Baboyeh Cemetery is prohibited.

On 21 July 1953, demonstrators protested the dismissal of the nationalist Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, and were killed inby security forces of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The victims were laid to rest in Baboyeh.

1310 GMT: Scattering the Students. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Tehran University's dormitories will be evacuated this summer, with students distributed across the city.

1245 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz has declared that excessive imports will break the back of domestic production.

1000 GMT: (Refuting the) Rumour of the Day. MP Qodratollah Alikhani identifying the mis-information put out by Javan, the newspaper linked to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, dismisses its latest tale that Green leaders met in a hotel sauna.

0954 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Film Expert. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has announced that a High Council for Cinema, led by the President, has been established.

An EA correspondent ponders, "What would be the titles of the films considered by this Council?"

0945 GMT: Education Corner. The licence of the Islamic Association at the University of Kashan has been revoked by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Education is reportedly sending religious missonaries to 3000 girls' schools in Tehran.
0855 GMT: Sanctions. MP Mohsen Nariman has challenged the Government's official line: "Claiming that sanctions have no effects is political propaganda."

0810 GMT: Staying on Point. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is continuing to ensure that his credentials on foreign policy are not in question, saying on Wednesday that the Iran-Brazil-Turkey declaration on a uranium swap is the only solution to the nuclear issue and adding that sanctions are sure to result in failure.
0805 GMT: Getting the Right Clerics in Place. According to Rooz Online, Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of policy for Friday Prayers, has said 60 Friday Prayer clerics will be "retired" this summer.

0705 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Azam Visemeh after her release from detention yesterday:



0700 GMT: In the Bazaar. Nejat Bahrami, writing for insideIRAN, analyses, "Bazaari Criticism of Ahmadinejad Bursts into the Open":

Another factor that can bring the bazaar and the opposition closer to each other is the role of the government. Mistakes made by the government and their impact should never be underestimated. Continuation of failed economic policies by the Ahmadinejad administration and further pressure on Iran by the international community can further intensify the economic crisis in Iran and alienate some parts of this important, influential group of merchants.

0655 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Two overviews of interest this morning....

Shayan Ghajar writes in insideIRAN, "Sanctions Open Iran to Russian, Chinese Firms", while Ardalan Sayami's analysis in Rooz Online is that "Sanctions Turn the Government to the Private Sector".

0635 GMT: A Clue on the Fatwa? Personally, I believe that the first audience for the Supreme Leader's supposed fatwa on Tuesday was the senior clerics of Qom, some of whom have been unsettled throughout the post-election crisis and many of whom were roused to anger by the June attacks on Seyed Hassan Khomeini and on the houses of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. (Using this line of reasoning, a possible reason for the "disappearance" of the fatwa is that it was not received well by those clerics.)

Support for this interpretation comes in Rah-e-Sabz, which posts a provocative account of Ayatollah Khamenei's recent journey to Qom and his meetings with the clerics.

0605 GMT: Perhaps the most spirited response to our coverage since Tuesday of the Supreme Leader's alleged fatwa --- "I am the Rule of the Prophet" --- has come from a reader who say, "Nothing new, he has simply reiterated the meaning of the velayat-e-faqih [clerical supremacy] as originally articulated by the late Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini....It is not always good to murky the water as you like doing here."

With respect, I beg to differ. While the content of Ayatollah Khameini's declaration has its precendents, it has not taken on the form of a fatwa, at least not under this Supreme Leader. And, as always, the distinction lays in timing, context, and developments: Why now? To what end? And what has happened to the fatwa, which has "disappeared" from many Iranian state outlets?

Mr Verde takes another look in an analysis.

Meanwhile....

Mousavi's Latest

Almost lost in the confusion over the Supreme Leader's statement --- did he or didn't he? --- was Mir Hossein Mousavi's intervention in a meeting with professors.

Mousavi, unwittingly intersecting with the presentation of and uncertainty over Khamenei's words, condemned “fabrication” and “distortion” of truth by the Government and stressed that “systematic lies” are the signs of the “decline” of a system. He said the media of the Green Movement should make every effort to “unravel” these lies and counter the “ominous phenomenon": “We must provide our people with a truthful analysis of every situation that the government represents through lies; even though our possibilities are not as much as the authoritarian government.”

Mousavi also spoke about the recent bombings in southeastern Iran, declaring that the problems of the ethnic groups in the border regions must be a priority and maintaining that terrorism can only be confronted through “development coupled with justice".

Power Crisis

Tabnak reports that electricity prices for farmers will increase 10-fold.

The Latest from Iran (11 July): Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot

1940 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. The "Babylon & Beyond" blog of the Los Angeles Times posts an update on the state of the bazaar protests over proposed increases in business taxes:

Authorities have...shut down the bazaar, declaring Sunday, ordinarily a bustling work day, an impromptu holiday because of the hot weather in an attempt to mask over the strike.

On Sunday, subways heading to the bazaar were relatively empty...."I am still continuing my strike," said Ali, a cloth merchant. "I may keep shut on Monday too."

NEW Iran Special: A Response to “The Plot Against Ahmadinejad” (Verde)
Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II
The Latest from Iran (10 July): The Plot Against the President

1930 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mission" Free Iran publishes a letter which it has received from the mother and younger brother of detained activist Behnam Ebrahimzadeh, asking for the support of the international community to protest his imprisonment.

1855 GMT: Execution Watch. Radio Farda reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has suspended --- for now --- the death sentence against Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani for adultery.

Ashtiani's case has attracted international attention because of the possibility that she might be stoned to death.

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists are paying close attention to the case of 45-year-old Zahra Bahrami,  arrested and taken to Evin Prison during the Ashura protests of 27 December. Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch dual national, has been charged with "mohareb" (war against God), and it is believed she will be tried soon.

RAHANA wrote in April that Bahrami had been held in solitary confinement and interrogated numerous times during her detention. Activists also claim she is being forced into a false confession.
Bahrami has not been allowed any prison visits, and the occasional phone calls she makes to her family are monitored and controlled by the interrogators.

1600 GMT: Coming to a Classroom Near You. Mohammed Boniadi, deputy director of the Tehran education department, says 1000 clerics will be sent into schools this fall to fight Western influence and domestic opposition, making students aware of "opposition plots and arrogance."

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA profiles Parvin Javad Zandeh, a 22-year-old woman arrested on Ashura (27 December) who is serving an 8 1/2-year prison sentence.

The brother of Mahboumeh Karimi, an activist of the One Million Signatures campaign, says she is suffering from poor physical and psychological health.

1420 GMT: Graphic Rumour of Day. Human Rights Activists News Agency is reporting that a 26-year-old woman from Tabriz, Elnaz Babazadeh, was beaten, raped, and killed by three Basij militiamen who had detained her for inappropriate hijab.

HRANA has proven a reliable source of information in the past; however, we are treating this story as unconfirmed, given the seriousness of the allegations, and will be monitoring developments.

1405 GMT: More on the Karroubi Statement (see 0935 GMT). Green Voice of Freedom gives a fuller English summary of Mehdi Karroubi's comments today to families of political prisoners who visited his home.

Beyond his criticism of sanctions on Iran, linked to his claims of the mismanagement and abuses of the Ahmadinejad Government, Karroubi declared, “Unfortunately, today the establishment is neither a republic nor Islamic. And this is an alarm bell for those who care about the country, the establishment and this land. As always, we are seeking to revive the true definition of the Islamic Republic, which was approved by Imam [Khomeini] and the wise people of Iran in April 1979.”

In affirming the legitimacy of the Republic, Karroubi said, “The Constitution is not like a revelation, and at time it needs to change”. This political consideration of reform was impossible, however:

Despotism has brought us to the point where the country’s highest executive power has no regard for the Parliament and its laws....This, is disrespecting the Iranian people....We seek a republic that is based on the people’s vote and on engineering the people’s votes.

1140 GMT: Cartoon Politics --- From Paul the Octopus to Khamenei. Never say that Iran's cartoonists are out-of-touch with the latest cultural moments. Soon after posting our special World Cup item on Germany's psychic Paul the Octopus, who has chosen both Spain and Mir Hossein Mousavi, we notice this:



1000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, from a source, claims that Mohammad Davari, the chief editor of Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News, remains in Evin Prison’s Security Ward after several months. The source claimed that Davari has been under intense pressure to "confess" in a television interview.

0935 GMT: The Opposition and Sanctions. Mehdi Karroubi has followed up Mir Hossein Mousavi's linkage of regressive UN sanctions to the inept foreign policy of the Ahmadinejad Government and Iran's economic woes.

Karroubi said, "I believe that part of the Iranian rule as well as the Revolutionary Guards are in favour of sanctions as they make gigantic and astronomical profits from them."

The cleric then targeted President Ahmadinejad:

Imprudence in foreign policy and the lack of political sanity in the actions and political and diplomatic words of the man in charge of the government have imposed high costs on the country," the reformist cleric said in a direct attack on Ahmadinejad. We should not give an excuse through shallow words and bungling actions and allow others to easily impose sanctions against Iran.

0715 GMT: On a slow Sunday --- it's hot in Iran, after all --- we have posted a World Cup special, "The Ultimate Triumph of Paul the Octopus". There's a special treat at the end of the story for Iran-watchers.

0630 GMT: We begin this morning with an evaluation of Mr Verde of our exclusive report and analysis on Saturday, "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad, Part II".

Meanwhile on the hot front, the questions persist about the Government's holidays for Sunday and Monday because of "extreme heat". Reformist member of Parliament Dariush Ghanbari has suggested the weather cannot be the real reason for the sudden announcement, given the effect on business and services.

Broadcasting Resumed

A bit of relief for the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, from both the Tehran heat and international pressure....

After Dutch counterparts withdrew their invitation for Zarghami and his colleagues to visit them, Zarghami was welcomed by Germany's broadcast directors, ARD chairman Peter Boudgoust and ZDF director-general Markus Schächter, in Mainz on Friday. IRIB made sure it filmed the occasion.

The Latest from Iran (7 July): Mousavi's Intervention

1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Bail for human rights activist Abdolreza Ahmadi, detained in March, has been set at $150,000.

1820 GMT: The Bazaar Strike and Government Climb-Down. The Los Angeles Times has a good overview of yesterday's developments over the stoppage in the Tehran Bazaar and the Government's reversal of a proposed increase in business tax.

NEW Iran Analysis: Crisis…What Crisis? (Verde)
NEW Iran’s New Haircut Law: First Culprit Identified!
Iran Document: The Mousavi-Khatami Meeting (5 July)
The Latest from Iran (6 July): Compromise?

1815 GMT: Mousavi on Sanctions (and the Economy and the Revolutionary Guard). Agence France Presse offers a useful summary of today's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi (see 1430 GMT).

Mousavi, in a direct manipulation of the President's words, declared, "To say that this resolution is like a 'used hankie' will not ease the hardships arising from demagogic policies, as it is clear to me that this resolution will affect our nation's security and economy."

Mousavi continued by noting the impact of sanctions and hitting at the Government's folly for bringing Iran down on both the international and economic fronts:

This oppressive resolution ... will decrease GDP, increase unemployment, create more hardships for people and widen the gap between us and other developing nations, especially our neighbours.

[The Iranian people] should know the effect of this resolution ... on their livelihood, inflation, the nation's progress and security. If people are asked to resist (sanctions), then their trust should be earned by telling them the truth.

Mousavi then linked economic woes to the intervention of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps,  "Bringing Sepah [the IRGC] back to its main responsibilities can decrease the greed of enemies ... and decrease the wave of corruption," he said.

1500 GMT: Rumour of Day. Iran Press News is claiming that the Tehran Bazaar, amidst this week's strike by some traders, is under heavy security. It claims there was an attack by men in plainclothes, with one merchant killed.

1430 GMT: A Double Intervention from Mousavi. Mir Hossein Mousavi has followed his Monday meeting with former President Mohammad Khatami with a further comment.

In a note on the recent UN Security Council resolution sanctioning Iran's nuclear programme, Mousavi extends remarks from the Monday meeting that the UN is wrongfully punishing Iran and adds that this is a product of the Ahmadinejad Government's wayward foreign policy.

Mousavi's website Kalemeh publishes a long editorial explaining that Mousavi does not believe church and state should be separates in the development of the Islamic Republic. The editorial is in part a response to an article in the Los Angeles Times that claimed Mousavi, in his recent "Green Charter", had advocated a secular Iranian system. (It is not stated what role, if any, Mousavi played in the writing and publication of the editorial.)

0840 GMT: The Bazaar Strike. Claimed video of yesterday's strike, protesting at a proposed 70% in business taxes, by merchants in the Tehran Bazaar:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCSSy4HZP-U[/youtube]

0700 GMT: We have two contrasting features this morning. Mr Verde takes a long look at the significant anti-Ahmadinejad intervention by MP Ahmad Tavakoli and the Islamic Azad University dispute to ponder, "Crisis...What Crisis?".

If you prefer your news tongue-in-cheek, our top EA news spies have uncovered the first violator of Iran's new guidelines for men's haircuts.

0610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has upheld the six-year prison sentence of reformist activist and journalist Keyvan Samimi Behbahani, who has also been barred from political, social and cultural activities for 15 years.

Samimi Behbahani is the managing director of the banned publication Nameh and is also a member of the committee in charge of investigating the unlawful arrest of individuals.

An appeals court has approved the three-year prison sentence handed down to Arman Rezakhani.

0515 GMT: As the 11th anniversary of the 1999 student protests approaches, there is talk of some public demonstration linking the past to the present challenge to the regime. For the moment, however, this is just a ripple. Monday's Mousavi-Khatami statement, from what we can gather, seems to have brought little reaction: the summary of the meeting is more a declaration of the "Iranian" legitimacy of the opposition's politics --- the most striking passage is the criticism of international sanctions and "Western" support for terrorism --- than a call for public resistance.

Protest, however, is never far from the surface, for Iran is far more than a Green v. Government scenario. International attention is riveted by the growing campaign to halt the stoning of Sakineh Mohammadie Ashtiani for adultery.

Inside Iran, the most striking result on Tuesday was the apparent success of merchants in the Tehran Bazaar. A sudden shut-down by some textile vendors --- there was also news of closures in the jewellry market --- seems to have brought a reversal of plans for a 70% increase in business tax.

On the labour front, the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Drivers Union has again strongly condemned the arrest and intimidation of members Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahabi.

And, far from least, the battle within continues. Later this morning we'll have an analysis of the latest "protest" of Ahmad Tavakoli --- key member of Parliament and ally of Speaker Ali Larijani --- against the Government and President Ahmadinejad.