The Latest from Iran (11 July): Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot

1940 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. The "Babylon & Beyond" blog of the Los Angeles Times posts an update on the state of the bazaar protests over proposed increases in business taxes:

Authorities have...shut down the bazaar, declaring Sunday, ordinarily a bustling work day, an impromptu holiday because of the hot weather in an attempt to mask over the strike.

On Sunday, subways heading to the bazaar were relatively empty...."I am still continuing my strike," said Ali, a cloth merchant. "I may keep shut on Monday too."

NEW Iran Special: A Response to “The Plot Against Ahmadinejad” (Verde)
Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II
The Latest from Iran (10 July): The Plot Against the President

1930 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mission" Free Iran publishes a letter which it has received from the mother and younger brother of detained activist Behnam Ebrahimzadeh, asking for the support of the international community to protest his imprisonment.

1855 GMT: Execution Watch. Radio Farda reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has suspended --- for now --- the death sentence against Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani for adultery.

Ashtiani's case has attracted international attention because of the possibility that she might be stoned to death.

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists are paying close attention to the case of 45-year-old Zahra Bahrami,  arrested and taken to Evin Prison during the Ashura protests of 27 December. Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch dual national, has been charged with "mohareb" (war against God), and it is believed she will be tried soon.

RAHANA wrote in April that Bahrami had been held in solitary confinement and interrogated numerous times during her detention. Activists also claim she is being forced into a false confession.
Bahrami has not been allowed any prison visits, and the occasional phone calls she makes to her family are monitored and controlled by the interrogators.

1600 GMT: Coming to a Classroom Near You. Mohammed Boniadi, deputy director of the Tehran education department, says 1000 clerics will be sent into schools this fall to fight Western influence and domestic opposition, making students aware of "opposition plots and arrogance."

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA profiles Parvin Javad Zandeh, a 22-year-old woman arrested on Ashura (27 December) who is serving an 8 1/2-year prison sentence.

The brother of Mahboumeh Karimi, an activist of the One Million Signatures campaign, says she is suffering from poor physical and psychological health.

1420 GMT: Graphic Rumour of Day. Human Rights Activists News Agency is reporting that a 26-year-old woman from Tabriz, Elnaz Babazadeh, was beaten, raped, and killed by three Basij militiamen who had detained her for inappropriate hijab.

HRANA has proven a reliable source of information in the past; however, we are treating this story as unconfirmed, given the seriousness of the allegations, and will be monitoring developments.

1405 GMT: More on the Karroubi Statement (see 0935 GMT). Green Voice of Freedom gives a fuller English summary of Mehdi Karroubi's comments today to families of political prisoners who visited his home.

Beyond his criticism of sanctions on Iran, linked to his claims of the mismanagement and abuses of the Ahmadinejad Government, Karroubi declared, “Unfortunately, today the establishment is neither a republic nor Islamic. And this is an alarm bell for those who care about the country, the establishment and this land. As always, we are seeking to revive the true definition of the Islamic Republic, which was approved by Imam [Khomeini] and the wise people of Iran in April 1979.”

In affirming the legitimacy of the Republic, Karroubi said, “The Constitution is not like a revelation, and at time it needs to change”. This political consideration of reform was impossible, however:

Despotism has brought us to the point where the country’s highest executive power has no regard for the Parliament and its laws....This, is disrespecting the Iranian people....We seek a republic that is based on the people’s vote and on engineering the people’s votes.

1140 GMT: Cartoon Politics --- From Paul the Octopus to Khamenei. Never say that Iran's cartoonists are out-of-touch with the latest cultural moments. Soon after posting our special World Cup item on Germany's psychic Paul the Octopus, who has chosen both Spain and Mir Hossein Mousavi, we notice this:



1000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, from a source, claims that Mohammad Davari, the chief editor of Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News, remains in Evin Prison’s Security Ward after several months. The source claimed that Davari has been under intense pressure to "confess" in a television interview.

0935 GMT: The Opposition and Sanctions. Mehdi Karroubi has followed up Mir Hossein Mousavi's linkage of regressive UN sanctions to the inept foreign policy of the Ahmadinejad Government and Iran's economic woes.

Karroubi said, "I believe that part of the Iranian rule as well as the Revolutionary Guards are in favour of sanctions as they make gigantic and astronomical profits from them."

The cleric then targeted President Ahmadinejad:

Imprudence in foreign policy and the lack of political sanity in the actions and political and diplomatic words of the man in charge of the government have imposed high costs on the country," the reformist cleric said in a direct attack on Ahmadinejad. We should not give an excuse through shallow words and bungling actions and allow others to easily impose sanctions against Iran.

0715 GMT: On a slow Sunday --- it's hot in Iran, after all --- we have posted a World Cup special, "The Ultimate Triumph of Paul the Octopus". There's a special treat at the end of the story for Iran-watchers.

0630 GMT: We begin this morning with an evaluation of Mr Verde of our exclusive report and analysis on Saturday, "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad, Part II".

Meanwhile on the hot front, the questions persist about the Government's holidays for Sunday and Monday because of "extreme heat". Reformist member of Parliament Dariush Ghanbari has suggested the weather cannot be the real reason for the sudden announcement, given the effect on business and services.

Broadcasting Resumed

A bit of relief for the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, from both the Tehran heat and international pressure....

After Dutch counterparts withdrew their invitation for Zarghami and his colleagues to visit them, Zarghami was welcomed by Germany's broadcast directors, ARD chairman Peter Boudgoust and ZDF director-general Markus Schächter, in Mainz on Friday. IRIB made sure it filmed the occasion.

Comments

[Catherine]

And life goes on....

Smugglers in Iraq Blunt Sanctions Against Iran
Day after day, without formal authorization from Baghdad, more than a thousand tankers snake through this town on Iraq’s border with Iran, not only undercutting recent American sanctions but also worsening tensions with the Iraqi government over how to divide the country’s oil profits.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/09/world/middleeast/09kurds.html?_r=1&ref=global-home" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/09/world/middlee...

[Catherine]

Muhammad Sahimi's latest article on Tehran Bureau:

'Anniversary of a Turning Point' - The student uprising of July 9, 1999, and its powerful reverberations
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/07/anniversary-of-a-turning-point.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...

[WitteKr]

Rafsanjani’s politics of expediency is over. Confrontations with Ayatollah Khamenei and with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have brought political ideology to the fore, and expediency to an end, says Mahan Abedin. http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=39988" rel="nofollow">http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=3... (Le Monde diplomatique – distributed by Agence Global).
The rise of Ahmadinejad represents the triumph of ideology over expediency. But at a deeper level it signifies the collapse of factional politics -- the way politics were managed for 30 years -- and the formalisation of rifts within the revolutionary establishment. Major political personalities -- such as former prime minister Mousavi, ex-president Mohammad Khatami and ex-speaker of parliament Mehdi Karrubi -- are new leaders of the opposition. (...) The end of factional politics signals the end of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who accumulated political capital from unregulated rifts and disputes. As the Iranian revolution moves toward its fifth decade, there seems to be no more room for the man who excelled in the art of being everything to everyone.

[WitteKr]

Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi has said Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards back sanctions against Tehran as they make "astronomical profits" from the punitive measures, a website said on Sunday.
"I believe that part of the Iranian rule as well as the Revolutionary Guards are in favour of sanctions as they make gigantic and astronomical profits from them," Karroubi was quoted as saying on opposition website http://Rahesabz.net" rel="nofollow">Rahesabz.net.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100711/wl_mideast_afp/irannuclearpoliticsoppositionkarroubiguards_20100711082646;_ylt=Ap78jWNY3_UjFB15P5muxlX5SpZ4" rel="nofollow">http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100711/wl_mideast...

[Catherine]

Green Voice of Freedom now offers in English a much lengthier account of Karroubi's comments:
Karroubi: 'Parts of government and IRGC favour sanctions against Iran'
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/11/2151" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jul/1...

[Shangool]

Wittekr, your link to the article about Raffers is good, but I have to disagree with the author who claims that Raffers is on his way out, in Iran one thing is certain, and that is money talks, and money is regarded higher than ideology, Raffers is probably the wealthiest man in Iran, he has the money to buy power and loyalty amongst others in the Guards, the final showdown will come before the next presidential elections and it will be between Raffers and the Guards.

[Catherine]

RE "The rise of Ahmadinejad represents the triumph of ideology over expediency. But at a deeper level it signifies the collapse of factional politics -- the way politics were managed for 30 years ....."

This reminds me of what Muhammad Sahimi notes in his excellent article, 'The Green Movement at One Year':
"...the greatest fruit of the Green Movement: the lines have been drawn. There is no longer any pretense. On one side are the Revolutionary Guards, the security/intelligence apparatus, a small faction of reactionary and ultraconservative clerics, and a narrow social base, probably about 15-20 percent of the population. On the other side is everyone else. Those in the majority have different demands, some economic, others social or political. Some are willing to do anything to bring about meaningful change, some are more cautious. But, they all agree on one thing: the present situation is no longer acceptable or tenable."
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/the-green-movement-at-one-year.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...

[Gunniy]

Shangool, do you think that the regime will organize presidential elections at 2013?

[Catherine]

Stirrings of a New Push for Military Option on Iran
Analysis by Jim Lobe (IPS)

"...a familiar clutch of Iraq war hawks appear to be preparing the ground for a major new campaign to rally public opinion behind military action against the Islamic Republic. ..... even suggesting that the timetable between campaign launch and possible military action - a mere six months in Iraq's case - could be appropriate. ..... While Bush's former national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, and Israeli Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog argued that the administration should begin planning military options now – presumably to be ready for possible action as early as next spring – others are calling for more urgent and demonstrative preparations.
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52108" rel="nofollow">http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52108

[Bozorg]

Catherine,

Thanks for linking to 'Anniversary of a Turning Point' - The student uprising of July 9, 1999, and its powerful reverberations.

Those who continue to advocate reform need to read this article. The reformists have never supported Iran's democrats and civil rights champions.

[Catherine]

As I turn off my computer for the day, I leave you all with a most curious bit of historical trivia: how the Israelis airlifted not only Jews out of Iran in the late 1970s - but also fallow deer!

“It was a chaotic time. I was already working on the evacuation of Jews [from Iran] and dealing with several other tough things at the same time,” Gen. Yitzhak Segev said. “But the fallow-deer matter also was a priority.”

Iran's last exports flourish in Israel
http://www.turks.us/article.php?story=2010071022372264" rel="nofollow">http://www.turks.us/article.php?story=201007102...

[Haaroon]

If Zahra Bahrami is a dual national of the Netherlands, why is the Netherlands so silent on her detention? I am constantly baffled by the passivity of european governments towards the Iranian regime.

[Arshama]

Hot, hot, hot! Spain - Netherlands 1:0
Gracias Iniesta! Viva Espana :-)

[Megan]

Netherlands was busy chasing referee instead of the ball or shooting into the chest instead of the net. The more disciplined team won and that is how it should be.

[Bozorg]

Megan, I can't blame the Dutch. That referee was AWFUL.

[Catherine]

Megan,
During the entire first half it was as if the Dutch players had thoroughly confused the Spanish footballers with the ball itself!

[Catherine]

Haroon (and everyone),
Please get involved and write a letter to the Dutch Foreign Minister:
http://www.onlydemocracy4iran.com/2010/04/27/help-save-dutch-citizen-zahra-bahrami-in-evin-prison-mail-maxine-verhagen/" rel="nofollow">http://www.onlydemocracy4iran.com/2010/04/27/he...

[QLineOrientalist]

There was an Elnaz of Tabriz who was killed in her car.
She has a fan page on FB. It is not clear who set up the fan page. The fact that it allows anti-regime slogans on it leads me to believe that it was not set up by the regime. Of course, it is not in the interests of Elnaz's family and friends to allow anti-regime slogans on the page, either, since it calls for people to stop politicizing her case and to keep it off illegal (in Iran) sites. But they can be expected to be laxer in policing the fan page for such outbursts.
This fan page contains an entry stating that the crime had been committed by an addict.
From this limited information, it seems that this was an apolitical murder which was politicized by oppositionists. The same happened several months ago with the case of Saideh Pouraqayi, whose disappearance from her mother's home was consciously manipulated by unscrupulous elements in the Green Movement (the Mawj-e Sabz website) and turned into a complex tale of police atrocities. The story collapsed when her mother exposed it as a lie, but not before landing Mehdi Karroubi in very hot water.
There are several things wrong with the story as reported by the human rights group. Just as in the Saideh story, it includes a sort of feat of telepathy. Thus, we are told that she was stopped on charges of insufficiently rigorous adherence to hijab. But how do we know this? The only witnesses were the basijis and she herself. She is dead and the basijis were obviously not going to talk. There are more loose ends of this sort.
Unlike the Taraneh Mousavi and Saideh Pouraqayi cases, this one has a slim chance of being what the human rights group claims it is. But it strikes me as extremely dubious.

[ScottLucas11]

QLine,

Thank you so much for this. I was conscious when posting the update of the Mousavi and Pouraqayi cases. I had also seen the Facebook page.

Your analysis is very useful --- I will continue to monitor the case and would be grateful for further information from readers.

S.

[QLineOrientalist]

With pleasure. I think you're handling it about right. :)

[Rubber Stamps for Office Use]

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