Iran: How "Ahmadinejad v. Paul the Octopus" Became a Global Showdown

It was only a sentence in a very, very long speech.

After a rather slow start --- "if one really makes a big success of it, the middle age will be the period in which what was achieved in youth would be consolidated" --- President Ahmadinejad's talk at the closing ceremony of the Iranian Youth Festival in Tehran last Friday was full of juicy soundbites.

There was the denunciation of a US-led plot "to carry out a military invasion of one or two countries in the Middle East, which are our friends, with the help of...disgraced Israelis". There was the portrayal of a deceitful Russian President Dmitry Medvedev offering support by "perform[ing] at a US show". There was the declaration, "The Iranian nation will crush hundreds of America's propagandist plays with its will and unity."

Little wonder, then, that this sentence initially slipped by with little notice: "Recently in the World Championship [football's World Cup] you saw that those who proclaim to have reached the peaks of history wanted to manipulate people's minds through superstition, an octopus, fortune-telling and such things."

Enter the magic of the German newspaper Bild. On Monday, their intrepid reporters turned Ahmadinejad's aside into the Main Event: "He incites against Israel, against the US and the West in general --- but now the crazy Iranian dictator is going after Paul the Octopus!...For Ahmadinejad, Paul is a symbol of the propaganda and superstitions of the West."

Paul the Octopus, for those who have been away from Planet Earth this summer, was the unexpected star of the 2010 World Cup, picking the winner in all of Germany's matches (including, at great risk to his life, Spain's defeat of the Germans in the semi-final) and then calling the Spanish victory over Holland in the final. He had also allegedly intervened in Iranian politics, calling an ultimate win for opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi over the Supreme Leader.

Forget minor events like Ayatollah Khamenei's "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa or the manoeuvres against the Iranian President. Paul v. Mahmoud was the story, sometimes the only story --- once you looked past mythical or real nuclear weapons, of course --- on Iran.

On Tuesday afternoon, the Daily Telegraph of London, which has a penchant for Wacky Ahmadinejad stories (see their superlative "Mahmoud is a Jew" effort), proclaimed, "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian leader, says Paul the Octopus, the sea creature that correctly predicted the outcome of World Cup games, is a symbol of all that is wrong with the western world." (There was no mention of Bild for its investigative coup.) And by Wednesday, British tabloids such as the Daily Mail and the Daily Mirror, as well as the broadsheet The Guardian, were reprinting the story with minor changes in wording (although The Guardian deserves a bonus point for the headline, "West Spreads Evil Tentacles into Iran").

Time magazine picked up the tale --- "[Paul] just calls it like it is — or will be". Rory Fitzgerald at The Huffington Post attempted satire by penning Paul's response: "He...said that he had never before seen such a lack of a sense of humor in a human being, despite the fact that he lives in Germany." Fox News posted the item in its "Science and Technology" section. IsraelPolitik, "The Political Blog of the State of Israel", jumped in, "If Paul the Octopus is on Ahmadinejad’s 'hitlist', no one is safe."

By Wednesday afternoon, there were so many reprints or minor variations of the tale --- all without noting the original Ahmadinejad sentence, all without crediting Bild --- that The Los Angeles Times (which credited The Daily Telegraph) was publishing a round-up.

Is there a moral here? Probably not. It's just a tale of how the world works, when the fatwa of a Supreme Leader --- a Supreme Leader who may be in political trouble --- just can't match up to the scenario of Bad Guy Politician v. Eight-Legged Psychic.

And you don't even need Paul --- or Mahmoud for that matter --- to tell you that.

[Thanks to Borzou Daragahi for sending me a full copy of Ahmadinejad's speech]

The Latest from Iran (11 July): Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot

1940 GMT: The Bazaar Strikes. The "Babylon & Beyond" blog of the Los Angeles Times posts an update on the state of the bazaar protests over proposed increases in business taxes:

Authorities have...shut down the bazaar, declaring Sunday, ordinarily a bustling work day, an impromptu holiday because of the hot weather in an attempt to mask over the strike.

On Sunday, subways heading to the bazaar were relatively empty...."I am still continuing my strike," said Ali, a cloth merchant. "I may keep shut on Monday too."

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1930 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mission" Free Iran publishes a letter which it has received from the mother and younger brother of detained activist Behnam Ebrahimzadeh, asking for the support of the international community to protest his imprisonment.

1855 GMT: Execution Watch. Radio Farda reports that the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has suspended --- for now --- the death sentence against Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani for adultery.

Ashtiani's case has attracted international attention because of the possibility that she might be stoned to death.

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists are paying close attention to the case of 45-year-old Zahra Bahrami,  arrested and taken to Evin Prison during the Ashura protests of 27 December. Bahrami, an Iranian-Dutch dual national, has been charged with "mohareb" (war against God), and it is believed she will be tried soon.

RAHANA wrote in April that Bahrami had been held in solitary confinement and interrogated numerous times during her detention. Activists also claim she is being forced into a false confession.
Bahrami has not been allowed any prison visits, and the occasional phone calls she makes to her family are monitored and controlled by the interrogators.

1600 GMT: Coming to a Classroom Near You. Mohammed Boniadi, deputy director of the Tehran education department, says 1000 clerics will be sent into schools this fall to fight Western influence and domestic opposition, making students aware of "opposition plots and arrogance."

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. HRANA profiles Parvin Javad Zandeh, a 22-year-old woman arrested on Ashura (27 December) who is serving an 8 1/2-year prison sentence.

The brother of Mahboumeh Karimi, an activist of the One Million Signatures campaign, says she is suffering from poor physical and psychological health.

1420 GMT: Graphic Rumour of Day. Human Rights Activists News Agency is reporting that a 26-year-old woman from Tabriz, Elnaz Babazadeh, was beaten, raped, and killed by three Basij militiamen who had detained her for inappropriate hijab.

HRANA has proven a reliable source of information in the past; however, we are treating this story as unconfirmed, given the seriousness of the allegations, and will be monitoring developments.

1405 GMT: More on the Karroubi Statement (see 0935 GMT). Green Voice of Freedom gives a fuller English summary of Mehdi Karroubi's comments today to families of political prisoners who visited his home.

Beyond his criticism of sanctions on Iran, linked to his claims of the mismanagement and abuses of the Ahmadinejad Government, Karroubi declared, “Unfortunately, today the establishment is neither a republic nor Islamic. And this is an alarm bell for those who care about the country, the establishment and this land. As always, we are seeking to revive the true definition of the Islamic Republic, which was approved by Imam [Khomeini] and the wise people of Iran in April 1979.”

In affirming the legitimacy of the Republic, Karroubi said, “The Constitution is not like a revelation, and at time it needs to change”. This political consideration of reform was impossible, however:

Despotism has brought us to the point where the country’s highest executive power has no regard for the Parliament and its laws....This, is disrespecting the Iranian people....We seek a republic that is based on the people’s vote and on engineering the people’s votes.

1140 GMT: Cartoon Politics --- From Paul the Octopus to Khamenei. Never say that Iran's cartoonists are out-of-touch with the latest cultural moments. Soon after posting our special World Cup item on Germany's psychic Paul the Octopus, who has chosen both Spain and Mir Hossein Mousavi, we notice this:



1000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, from a source, claims that Mohammad Davari, the chief editor of Mehdi Karroubi's website Saham News, remains in Evin Prison’s Security Ward after several months. The source claimed that Davari has been under intense pressure to "confess" in a television interview.

0935 GMT: The Opposition and Sanctions. Mehdi Karroubi has followed up Mir Hossein Mousavi's linkage of regressive UN sanctions to the inept foreign policy of the Ahmadinejad Government and Iran's economic woes.

Karroubi said, "I believe that part of the Iranian rule as well as the Revolutionary Guards are in favour of sanctions as they make gigantic and astronomical profits from them."

The cleric then targeted President Ahmadinejad:

Imprudence in foreign policy and the lack of political sanity in the actions and political and diplomatic words of the man in charge of the government have imposed high costs on the country," the reformist cleric said in a direct attack on Ahmadinejad. We should not give an excuse through shallow words and bungling actions and allow others to easily impose sanctions against Iran.

0715 GMT: On a slow Sunday --- it's hot in Iran, after all --- we have posted a World Cup special, "The Ultimate Triumph of Paul the Octopus". There's a special treat at the end of the story for Iran-watchers.

0630 GMT: We begin this morning with an evaluation of Mr Verde of our exclusive report and analysis on Saturday, "The Plot Against Ahmadinejad, Part II".

Meanwhile on the hot front, the questions persist about the Government's holidays for Sunday and Monday because of "extreme heat". Reformist member of Parliament Dariush Ghanbari has suggested the weather cannot be the real reason for the sudden announcement, given the effect on business and services.

Broadcasting Resumed

A bit of relief for the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, from both the Tehran heat and international pressure....

After Dutch counterparts withdrew their invitation for Zarghami and his colleagues to visit them, Zarghami was welcomed by Germany's broadcast directors, ARD chairman Peter Boudgoust and ZDF director-general Markus Schächter, in Mainz on Friday. IRIB made sure it filmed the occasion.

World Cup Special: The Ultimate Triumph of Paul the Octopus

UPDATE 0730 GMT: In case you're wondering --- and I know you are --- Paul has picked Spain to defeat Holland in tonight's final.

I have been fortunate to follow the story of Paul the Octopus since the start of the World Cup when EA's German Bureau notified me of this wondrous eight-tentacled psychic and his ability to predict the outcome of football matches.

We continued to watch as Paul's fame grew and reached the mainstream media, but on Thursday --- the day after Spain defeated Germany 1-0 in the World Cup semifinal --- we were put on Special Alert by the German Bureau.

As Cassandra learned, a psychic's success becomes a curse when he/she brings bad news, and Paul (unwisely) had forecast the Spanish victory. So the cry had arisen: "Cut him up in thin slices and grill him on all sides with a dash of lemon juice, olive oil and garlic on it. Delicious!"

It is our great pleasure and relief, however, to bring you the reassurance this morning that Paul will not be on a dinner plate in the near-future. He (wisely) pointed to a German win in the 3rd-place match against Uruguay last night --- when Diego Forlan's last-minute shot hit the crossbar, both a 3-2 German victory and Paul's longevity were protected.

And the ever-vigilant German Bureau notes that there is a political pay-off in the latest developments. For Paul has not confined himself to sporting forecasts. This week he was placed before photographs of Iran's Supreme Leader on one side and opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi on the other. The outcome:

The Latest from Iran (3 July): Fussing and Feuding

2155 GMT: Taking on the Brides. What better way to close a Saturday night than to pick up on the latest triumph of Iran's morality authorities? Mehr News reports that a bridal exhibition in Shiraz has been shut down.

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A reminder that the brothers Arash and Kamiar Alaei, two doctors prominent in the treatment of HIV/AIDS through the triangular clinic system, have entered their third year of detention.

1940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azeri activist Hassan Rahimi Bayat was arrested today at work.

HRANA reports that Peyman Karimi-Azad, detained on Ashura, is in a diabetic coma in Evin Prison after being denied treatment.

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1920 GMT: Economic Front. An interesting revelation about Iran's current economic tensions: while those with higher degrees from universities are 15.1% of the country's workforce, they make up 25.5% of the unemployed.

1910 GMT: Khamenei's "Guidelines" for Filmmakers. The Los Angeles Times picks up on another aspect of the Supreme Leader's statement to those involved in Iranian media (see 1540 GMT), his instructions for suitable movies:

Our film directors should offer products in which positive points eclipse negative and dark points of our society. If you magnify negative points, the society will plunge into disenchantment.

As for censorship, well.... "Sometimes, our artists raise unrealistic concerns about the [restrictions] they face in producing critical films. Some...criticisms against films and television series are correct and they have to respect certain moral, religious and cultural red lines. Transgressing these red lines will be extremely harmful."

So, for example, filmmakers had to keep on their moral toes --- "foreign networks are undertaking incessant efforts to invade chastity and hijab in a bid to destroy the foundation of families in Iran" --- and mind their political manners:

In all products, you should take into consideration the ongoing political events, specifically the animosity of bullying powers against the Iranian nation. Those who claim to be friends of Iran have proven their enmity to our history and culture by their anti-Iranian films. Under such circumstances, any politically motivated show has to be performed carefully not to play into the hands of enemies.

1905 GMT: Which Is More Dangerous: Computers or Guns? The answer of Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam is that "internet terrorism" menaces the Iranian nezam (system).

To which an EA correspondent replies, " And killing people doesn't?"

1655 GMT: Morality Message of Day. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, often seen as the "spiritual mentor" of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but now a possible critic of the President's recent comments on the "morality police", has said: "If a boy and a girl do something against morals, they should be punished with 100 lashes."

1649 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Financial Mis-Manager? Peyke Iran publishes a list of "financial irregularities", from the Tehran municipal budget of 2005 (when Ahmadinejad was mayor) to $14 billion not allocated to the national treasury in the 2008 budget.

1645 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Press TV publishes an English version of the Guardian Council's slap-down of Parliament over control (labelled as "funding") of Islamic Azad University: "Aside from religious and constitutional violations, and ambiguities that are evident in the different parts of this legislation, because this bill necessitates entering the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution (SCCR)'s domain of authority, therefore, it is against Sharia law and in violation of articles 57, and 110 of the Constitution."

In other words, Parliament is subordinate to the SCCR, which is largely seen as an enforcement arm of the Government.

1640 GMT: Holland Blackout on IRIB. The planned visit to Dutch networks by an Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting delegation, including its head, Ezatollah Zarghami, has been cancelled after protests by Iranian expatriates and Dutch legislators and media.

1635 GMT: A Clerical Critique. Ayatollah Hashemzadeh-Herissi of Khobregan has asserted that some people are caught up in security and thus act irresponsibly. He added that it is impossible to read some Iranian media because they are "full of lies" and that "values are mistreated in the name of Islam".

1620 GMT: Parliament's Counter-Attack. In the aftermath of the distributing of leaflets by Ahmadinejad supporters denouncing Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, prominent member of Parliament Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam has warned the critics and opponents of Larijani to back off.

Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli has pointed to a disruptive current that "tries to blacken all forces within the nezam (Iranian system)".

And Ali Motahari, now prominently leading the fight against the President, has said that Ahmadinejad "cannot stand criticism". He accused the President of "furnishing" the group of protestors that challenged Parliament's attempt to maintain control of Islamic Azad University, and he asserted that government policies "menace the Iranian nezam".

Ahmadinejad supporter Mohammad Khoshchehreh tried to counter by saying that many "hardliners" are not legitimate in their views.

1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (Getting to the Important Part). A striking example of how the difference between viewing Iran "internationally" and watching its internal tensions.

For Agence France Presse, the importance of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at today's Expediency Council lies in the sanctions issues. AFP highlights this passage:

The world arrogance (US) is trying to intimidate countries of the region, so they go along with bullying policies against Iran, but will not succeed in this act. It is an overt, bullying action against Iran when the US president officially announces that they are targeting the heart of Iran's nuclear programme.

EA's German Bureau gets past this diversion to find the importance of the statement, noting the summary of the Iranian Labor News Agency. Rafsanjani said officials should stop battles between different "gangs", as there is a danger that "radical groups" will weaken the three powers [executive, legislative, and judiciary], official institutions, and officials.

1555 GMT: Rahnavard Intervenes. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement urging Iranian authorities to end the oppression of political prisoners:

Today the prisons should be proud to have become the residence of the noble and pure individuals who only seek freedom, democracy, justice, and affluence of humanity and have no concern but the prosperity of the nation; today the prisons are hosts of scientific elite, students, professors, journalists, winner of scientific Olympiads, and defenders of human rights.

1540 GMT: Supreme Leader Meets Iran's State Media, Warns Against Lies. That's probably an overdramatic label --- Ayatollah Khamenei, meeting the Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghami, and producers, writers and artists, was not referring to any lies by IRIB.

Instead Khamenei said, "Those who provided Saddam Hussein with weapons and chemical materials to commit crimes against the Iranian nation have established so-called cultural networks today to pursue the same objectives. This fact should not be overlooked by anyone."

1520 GMT: The Universities Crisis. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Guardian Council, favouring the Ahmadinejad Government, has rejected the Parliament bill asserting its control over Islamic Azad University.

1330 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Sanctions. Absolutely no rhetorical overkill in today's declaration by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

[The West knows] that there is a sleeping lion in Iran which is waking up and if she wakes up all the relationships in the world will change. Their pathetic acts show they know what a great human power is hidden in Iran.

They thought that by having meetings and talking to each other and signing papers they could stop a great nation's progress. Iran is much greater than what they can perceive it in their small minds. We know that if this Iranian civilization awakes then there would be no more room for arrogant, corrupt and bullying powers.

1320 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Detained labour activist Mansour Osanloo appeared in a Karaj court on Wednesday for unknown reasons.

Hamzeh Karami, manager of the reformist Jomhouriat website and a senior official at Islamic Azad University, has reportedly been hospitalised in Evin Prison with heart and respiratory problems. Karami was arrested shortly after the June 2009 election.

1315 GMT: The Kahrizak Cover-Up. Human rights activist and former member of Parliament Ali Akbar Mosavi Khoeni has asked for a "proper" enquiry by the Government into the handling of the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.

Two prison employees were sentenced to death this week and nine others were given jail terms after a closed-door trial, but activists believe senior officials responsible for Kahrizak have escaped investigation and punishment.

1300 GMT: (Digital) Economy Watch. Iran has ranked 69th out of 70 countries for strength of "digital economy" in a study conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit and IBM's Institute for Business Value.

Iran was 68th in 2009 but avoided a fall to the absolute bottom this year by edging out Azerbaijan.

1110 GMT: Play It Again, Ali. He might be fighting with the President at home, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is maintaining Iran's common tough-talk line on sanctions. He told reporters Friday that threats will not work against Tehran: "If the US wants to act in the same way as before, this approach would prove costly for them."

0840 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Alert. Edward Yeranian of Voice of America offers a useful summary, "Iranian Officials Scoff at Impact of New US Economic Sanctions".

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran publishes what it claims is a psychologist's report from August about Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan. It includes provocative items such as Radan's alleged promise to detainees in the now-infamous Kahrizak Prisoners that "they should forget Auschwitz and Guantanamo".

Parleman News claims journalist Aazam Veysameh is being held incommunicado in solitary confinement, with no visits from family.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a special analysis from Mr Verde, "The Escalating Crisis Within".

Meanwhile....

World Cup Funnies

EA has posted a comedy piece (we think it's a comedy piece) by a former speechwriter for George W. Bush who claims, "Soccer is a Socialist Sport", but football humour isn't limited to the US.

Earlier this week, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki did a routine on how the World Cup humiliations of France, England, and the US were due to God's smiting of those who oppressed Iran with sanctions (and qualification for the World Cup). The punchline comes from Parleman News, however: the website notes that God seems to have turned against Tehran by taking down its ally on the nuclear issue, Brazil.

EA is waiting for Mottaki's assessment of what God thinks about Holland, Brazil's conquerors in the quarter-finals.

Conflicting Signals

Unfortunately for the Government, the confusion is not only over God and football. While Tehran's Friday Prayer leader, Ayatollah Emami Kashani, was giving the party line that opposition could not be tolerated, warning lawyers that defence of wrongdoers is forbidden, the Friday Prayer leader in Golestan, Ayatollah Nour-Mofidi, said, "Criticism of government does not mean opposition to nezam [the Iranian system]", and media loyal to that system should be free.

Deputy Speaker of Parliament Alaeddin Boroujerdi tried to hold everything together by denouncing Iran's enemies --- the US is like the Soviet Union before its decline --- and attacking Mir Hossein Mousavi. Not sure that the attack brought home its intended message, however. Boroujerdi said Iran ad 80% popularity in Muslim countries before elections and this dropped to 27 % afterwards --- but is that shift really due to Mousavi rather than, say, some other politician or regime figure?